Enemy of My Enemy

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Thu, 2012-07-19 23:53 -- John Batchelor
Thursday, July 19, 2012

Handout from Syria TV, Bashar Assad names a new Defense Minister in Damascus.   

Spoke to Larry Kudlow, CNBC, along with CNBC contributor, Helima Croft, re the twin bomb attacks of the last 24 hours, one in Damascus against the Assad regime, the second in Bulgaria against Israeli tourists.  I spoke as much of the following matrix as I could in the time available, and I add the full brief for your study: 

1.  Russian warships already deployed from Latakia to Cyprus, with air defense in place at Latakia

2.  Russia wants stability in Syria, not Assad per se, but will stand by Assad until and if there is a substitute for stability.  Russia wants guarantees that its treaty with Assad regime (bases, military and cultural and economic) will be respected by any new regime.  US will not provide this guarantee.

3.  US wants UN/NATO intervention to bring down Assad and install an Islamist regime like same in Egypt and more.  US wants to provide air cover to Turkey/France, Qatar intervention.  US wants stability for region with Islamist strong men in place.
 
4.  Iran supports Damascus Assad to a point. Iran wants Neo Persian Empire.  Iran will adjust its tactic in order to eliminate the minorities soy the region that blunt Shia and Sunni hegemony.  Minorities such as Israelis, Druze, Ismailists, Christians, Allawites and most specially the Kurds.
 
5.  Turkey wants Kurds eliminated also, and finds minorities frustrating to its Neo-Ottoman dreams.
 
6.  Islam factions, both Shia and Sunni, are willing to set aside their thousand year warfare for now in rode to eliminate minorities, staring with the Jews and Kurds.
 
7.  The Bulgaria attack is part of a general offensive by Iran to prove Israel into conflict. Follows attempts at Kenya, strike at India, many other attempts reported.  Iran Supreme Leader orders attacks and attacks, wants conflict soonest to feed the general opinion that a war with Israel will unite Middle East Islamists with Shia.  Their dispute is for later.
 
8.  What does President Obama want?  Stability with Islamist regimes, and stability till Election critical.  Chiefly he wants Israel to do nothing.  Chiefly Obama brings pressure on Netanyahu not to respond to Bulgaria.
 
9.  Enemy of my enemy is my ally today is a general interpretation of the swirling predation.
 
10.  Risk of general war?  Unknown.  The regional war well underway on Syria surrogate battlefield.  Refugee columns from Damascus into Lebanon near Golan a major new problem.  Plenty of Syria agents in those refugees.  And recall that Syria agent told me in September 201 that an attack on Damascus by US/Turkey/Natio will trigger conflagration with rockets fired at Tel Aviv.
 
Homs, under assault by Syrian Army.