Iranian Convoy Enroute

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Tue, 2012-11-20 02:27 -- John Batchelor
Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Spoke Malcolm Hoenlein, Reza Kahlili, Eric Trager, Aaron Klein, in re the Gaza crisis Day 5 and learned that there is a chance for a ceasefire without ground action.  Khaled Mashal, the Hamas boss in Cairo, refuses to accept terms for a settlement unless Israel lifts the sea and land blockade of Gaza.  Israel refuses to lift the blockade because immediately Hamas and its kindred of Cain Islamic Jihad would re-arm with long range and short range missiles.  Aaron Klein reports a likely MANPAD used against an IDF drone.  Malcolm Hoenlein says there are signs of ground preparation now.  Late reports that Netanyahu will wait another 24 hours for a settlement.  Eric Trager says that M. Morsi of Egypt is in a race to find a deal.  POTUS Obama in Southeast Asia is calling Morsi regularly to demand a successful armistice.  Am told that Iran is exuberant at the chaos and is eager to fuel the violence.  Am told that an Iranian convoy is enroute from the Gulf to East Africa (likely Port Sudan) that is bringing 50 Fajr-5s and 220 Supergrads that can be transported overland through Sudan and across the Red Sea into the Sinai.  Unknown timeline for the missiles to arrive into the hands of Islamic Jihad, but not long.   The IDF and Netanyahu are aware the convoy is enroute.  What will come of the negotiation is a stalemate that will provide Hamas an opportunity to rearm its arsenal and rebuild its rocket launchers.  Am told the crisis may well end in ten days at the United Nation, or not, in which case it will get "messy" and go on for a time.  Better vantage in twenty-four hours.  Late news that StateSec Clinton will break away from the peace embassy of POTUS Obama into Southeast Asia and travel hurriedly to the region for emergency "de-escalation" talks.  Not a sign that talks in Cairo are positive.  This will slow everything down another few days, giving Iran more time to get the new missiles into Sinai.  Islamic Jihad knows that it can fire from Sinai, does not need to get into Gaza.