Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Danielle Pletka, AEI, in re: Assad and Syria. A complete change of weather in the Middle East: leadership in Riyadh.  Prince Muqrin, a sturdy ally of the US, replaced by Prince Mohammed of the Sudari clan, associated with Wahhabism and fervent Saudi nationalism and vs. Iran.  In Syria, the Saudis will double down, push hard; some rebel forces not associated with ISIS have been gaining ground in recent months. Saudi lined up with Turkey and Qatar, rearming with many weapons.  Saudis and Qataris despise each other;; however, their larger enemies are ISIS and Iran, and the larger problem, the US.  Antipathy against AKP in Turkey, but working together against Assad, Iran's front man.  Success would be only a tactical victory; what cones next?  Sanaa and Damascus, both in civil war.   Saudis not as puissant as Iran but not negligible. Idlib, a large city fallen to al Nusrah Front; also in Daraa; a changing dynamic in Syria. Assad is now in a worse position than he's been in years. When his own Allawi people decide he's too much of a liability, he won’t stay.  Iran looks at Assad; when they must, they’ll detach from him.  Will still have Hezbollah and [probably] Hamas. Have well- reinforced enclaves on the Syrian and Israeli borders.   Syria will not de jure but de facto separate into [provinces of gangs and warlords].   If Assad goes, would cause Iran to lose face in the region.