Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 1, Block C: Joseph Rago, WSJ, in re:  Obamacare update.  Conversation with Ted Cruz on Obamacare. ACA: we haven't seen the surge in enrollments touted; expectations lowered (“downgraded”); largest insurer lost $20 million (?) this year; we’re seeing real indications of adverse selection: pools of older folks, young people not joining, can't increase the premiums enough to cover the claims. Last night at Democratic evening, many questions on how to afford health insurance. Obamacare was a huge factor in the GOP electoral sweeps of 2012; not much discussion now?  Trump’s presence in the race hasn't focused on serious policy considerations. May have to re-open the law; Paul Ryan saying that this year the House will pass a replacement of some sort.  Mrs Clinton will increase expenses. Six years ago when the law was passed we were told that everyone would come around to love it.  The opposite is happening.  Reform alternative looks valuable.  Medicaid expansion: states that accepted that will now get much bigger bill as more people use emergency rooms. The “woodwork effect” – when you expand an entitlement, many ore people emerge than expected.   We've seen o reduction in ER use whatsoever.  Overuse of Medicaid runs up huge bills; adverse selection; financial clamp points coming down on both sides.  States ask to run this on their own terms; governors have no tools with which to manage; are under the boot of Maryland department.  Part of Cruz’s stump speech: repeal the ACA and replace it with something better – pass his simple flat tax for for business and repeal Obamcare. (Also end ethanol mandates and subsidies – end almost all subsidies, incl the Blend Wall: ethanol mandate – currently can't exceed 10% of a gallon of gas, while agriculture wants it to go up to 15% or 20%.) Obama’s White House must be disappointed; are they open about it? No – it's a kind of Baghdad Bob situation where they say everything’s just fine.