The John Batchelor Show

VIDEO: Trendlines

August 16, 2016

Monday 15 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:   David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Senior Congressional correspondent in Palo Alto; John Fund, NRO, in Denver, in re: Clinton superPAC is significantly reducing spending on TV ads until the September debate in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado – three battleground states.  In Indiana, the reddest of states, the two candidates are even: 44/44.    Mrs Clinton is winning by important margins right now.  She’s very confident about the trend lines; has a ton of data from polling. Can it change? Yes. Will it?  Can’t be sure.   At Natl Republican Lawyers Assn (500 people) – at this mtg the report have been that Trump has already lost; the only question is how many he drags down in the Senate and House?   . . . It's just three weeks since the conventions. When did America turn away?  probably when Trump went after Gold Star parents, Mr & Mrs Khan; lack of seriousness abut being president.  There were warning signals that Trump didn't know when to stop. At dinner on Sat, 500 lawyers concluded: either Trump is a secret Clinton plant to throw the election, or he actually is a 13-year-old teenager who can't be disciplined. They were serious!  . . . There are cultural and racial fissures; the GOP will still be divided. Has to move away from donor classes and lobbyist, to a more populist positi0n: continue free trade, and immigration reform, and natl security— with much wiser policies. 
See poll of 84,000-plus people:  DRAFT WORKING PAPER ; Abstract ; Explaining nationalist political views: The case of Donald Trump, by Jonathan Rothwell Senior Economist, Gallup.   Summary: The 2016 US presidential nominee Donald Trump has broken with the policies of previous Republican Party presidents on trade, immigration, and war, in favor of a more nationalist and populist platform. Using detailed Gallup survey data for a large number of American adults, I analyze the individual and geographic factors that predict a higher probability of viewing Trump favorably and contrast the results with those found for other candidates. The results show mixed evidence that economic distress has motivated Trump support. His supporters are less educated and more likely to work in blue-collar occupations, but they earn relatively high household incomes, and living in areas more exposed to trade or immigration does not increase Trump support. There is stronger evidence that racial isolation and less strictly economic measures of social status, namely health and intergenerational mobility, are robustly predictive of more favorable views toward Trump, and these factors predict support for him but not other Republican presidential candidates.
The week that was included this expression of Trump campaign incoherence:  Donald Trump, “Our campaign is making a big move for Connecticut”
   What’s wrong with the Trump campaign? How can it be fixed by Labor Day? How long can the party wait for Trump to right the ship? What’s the worst-case scenario we can see now?