The wave grows and so does the likelihood of hijinks and shenanigans in the Lame Duck and in January. Am writing for the Beast on waiting for the Republican leadership: John Boehner is in dress rehearsal to become the Speaker of the House for the putative Republican Congress, and what the feverish partisans among us need to accept is that this chain-smoking, conflict-averse, glad-handing and peculiarly orange-tinged golfer is the pay-off for the last two years of Lilliputian turmoil. No matter how successful the Tea Party and Club for Growth vote on Election Day - sixty-seat swing! Coup de main! - all the king's horses cannot do more come January and the 112th Congress than to wait on the modest brainpower of a sixty-one-year-old professional Ohio pol who, on his best day, is described by a wag as so out of touch with the American culture that he thinks of himself as cool, just like Dean Martin....

A minor puzzlement is why a few partisan actors continue to toy with Alvin Greene.  Perhaps the summer season is idle for the relaxed partisans in the Carolinas.   Mr. Greene remains a mystery--but not a profound one.  His military service, his inventiveness, his spontaneous enthusiasm, all point to a self-confident, earnest opportunist.   There is little suggestion that he has been mentored, or that he has any experience as a politician.  He brings an air-guitar enthusiasm to a sober role.  The South Carolina Democratic Party looks not to be helping him or even especially interested in the spotty campaign.  The prominent James Clyburne of the House asserts that he will not support Greene.  Sixty days to go.  What I like about Mr. Greene is that he is relentlessly game.  The pending charges against him for sexual misconduct are serious, yet he remains an innocent accused.  Something about the way Greene has pushed himself into the conversations feels like a throwback to the early 19th century, an age of amateur politicians who were suspicious and charismatic at the same time.  Then again, this is the age of celebrities called Gaga and Levi Johnston, and so perhaps it is also Alvin Greene Nation.  Perhaps Alvin Greene is just a random, youthful, goofy and not unhumble performance artist with the sort of troubles that come to solitary young men.  The $10,000 registration fee in order to become a candidate for the Senate on the Democratic line remains the centerpiece of the mystery. 

Roger Federer's between the legs put-away shot was novel when he tried it in Europe, but in Queens it begins to look like a signature brand or a quirk. Not something you teach. Studying the Federer set-up, the reaction of the crowd (smiles, shrugs, laughter, no amazement this time), I am thinking of how the court media now respond to an Obama trick speech. Smiles, shrugs, laughter, no amazement.  POTUS hit a low point with the Oval Office speech on the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe.  POTUS does not have his game back.  The remarks on Iraq this news cycle will not dazzle.  Lots of palaver, generalities, moving in the right direction, support the troops, promises kept, palaver.  The trick shot is that POTUS can stand up and do it at all, since he brings no new thing to the court media.   The Democrats in the stands are exiting early from the center court, back to their campaigns to hold on to 60%-plus districts in Blue states, since everything else looks to be in jeopardy.  Time for a new trick shot, POTUS.   (Mention the whisper that POTUS disdains the job, that POTUS feels trapped by his historical significance, that POTUS limits himself to a handful of aides and no outside counsel, that POTUS is happiest deep inside the bubble with a cigarette and a pout at any 9th tee.)

It is a mystery to many professionals why POTUS continues to talk around the jobs problem no matter the season, no matter the conflict.  The Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana (sister of the New Orleans mayor, Mitch Landrieu) implores POTUS to speak of jobs lost with the moratorium on deepwater drilling (below, Landrieu with Governor Bobby Jindal).  POTUS refuses in his speech at Xavier University on Sunday 29 to mention the issue in his remarks  Instead, POTUS speaks of education, of the 100-year barrier constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers, of the excitement of New Orleans still searching for a return to the status quo.  The White House conducted the speech like a campaign event, with the usual wall of diversity arranged like mannequins behind the lordly POTUS.  The White House is mechanical.  POTUS is mechanical.  This was POTUS's first trip to New Orleans in 20 months in office.  Not much to show for his big talk during the 2008 campaigns.  Has POTUS lost his touch?  John Fund observes that John McCain's clumsiness made Candidate Obama look better than the fact of the matter.  Without an opponent for POTUS to parry and mock, POTUS is not magic.  Or has POTUS made a decision that he does not want to do this job?  There are rules to the White House.  You play the country from the point of view of the polls.

  

The shadow that looms over the economic recovery is made up of many parts of disorder and uncertainty, but certainly the most obvious are Fannie and Freddie and the $12 trillion residential mortgage market, a quarter of which may already be underwater.  The video above by the trenchant Jim Klinge (a/k/a "Jim the Realtor" from the vibrant and transparently rueful http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/Calculated Risk site) illustrates the challenge for San Diego County, and in doing so represents the top of the pile of the challenge.  This Carmel Valley (below) location, location, location is the best of the national mess.  A 2005-built house that goes into foreclosure and goes back to the bank, is then listed by the indifferent and cautious bank with an out-of-town broker (Sacramento?) at $789,900, and is then dumped after 58 days on an FHA loan bid at $650K.  This is a 17% discount for a newer home in an attractive neighborhood of an active and far from abandoned-all-hope city.  Use this formula for all the housing out there.  We are now down 30% from the peak, with another 17% AND HIGHER to go.  Whole neighborhoods must be marked down before we can start repairing the black holes of Fan and Fred.  So far, in the extend and pretend fiasco engineered by the Obama administration and Congress, we see just one-offs, rogue listings, more of the wait-until-prices-recover.  "This was the REO listed by a Sacramento broker," Jim explains on the video.  "... listed this for $789,900, I believe, and just showed up closed, 58 days on the market...get this, $650,000 FHA... ...650 FHA for 3700 square feet... it's a great time to look, good time to be a looker.   It took somebody to have the guts to make an offer to FHA to get this deal....I don't think we're going to see the whole market dump like this...tract homes built in '05. ..we'll see.."

Among the few unbounded joys left me in this century is the plotting for the NEO (Near Earth Objects) or pair of NEOs that will come suddenly (or slowly) and strike the Earth at 14 km/second. The scenarios are rehearsed. There will be surprises. Are we ready? No. Can we prepare? Yes.  Will we?  That is politics.  It is celestial Russian roulette.  One bullet in the chamber of the solar system.  Where does it strike.  Not if.

The news report is that the Pakistan-rooted genius above, who performed in a self-loathing fashion for world-weary youthful celebrities on "Canadian Idol," is part of the trio of jihadi plotters arrested in Canada. Bomb parts, plans and jihad lit in their possession.  It takes a strong man not to break down laughing at the fact that these bozos are likely not all that different from the characters who conducted 9-11.  The routine lesson that a mind is a terrible thing to waste has not reached the jihad websites.  These sad sacks are said to be seeking an act of violence to redeem the marginal folly of their privileged and pointless lives.   Reminds me of the Marine guideline, be nice to all you meet (in Iraq, Afghanistan and so forth Ummah wilderness), and have a plan to kill them.  The Canadians are baby chumps to tolerate this cretinous crowd of wannabees.  Shrug.  I suppose I am jumping to conclusions. A puzzle is, Was their trash talk about building a bomb for the US or Canada or the "Idol" Green Room?  The facts supprt that they were part of a gang.  Three of the gang are now fled overseas to Dubai and so forth.  The three nabbed geniuses, appearing in court, are part of a well-financed delusional plot.  One of them traveled to Iran in order to slip into Afghanistan for bomb training.  Again, we are not seeing much about the root causes here of poverty and alienation.  These are manicured, spoiled, relentless punks who are web-savvy and self-indulgent.  Jihad this, guys.

Spoke Mary Kissel, AWSJ, and Gordon Chang, Forbes, re the surprise and illogical visit of President Jimmy Carter to North Korea in the midst of US State and the White House pushing for more and tougher sanctions on North Korea for the March 26 ship-sinking.  Mr. Carter is pictured smiling and buoyant.  He is said to be on a mission of mercy to rescue a troubled American who decided foolishly to travel to North Korea without invitation, and who may have been tortured, or who may have tried to destroy himself.  It does not appear that the excuse is adequate to the sudden trip.  Mr. Carter asserts that he is traveling as a private citizen.  At the same time, a news report from South Korea states that the tyrant Kim, who is long reported suffering severe illness, is now visiting China for the second time this year.  Odd timing.  Mention that if Kim is too reduced to be photographed with Carter, a useful fiction would be to say that Kim is away.  In any event, Mr. Carter's trip is peculiar, unexplained, open to many interpretations and plainly off-message from the presumed sanctions regime against a rogue regime and a failed state of thugs and slaves.  Beijing continues to sponsor and endorse the Kim crimes; the Korean peoples are correct to hold China responsible for the Kim depravity.   Mr. Carter's responsibility remains a mystery.  I jested to Mary Kissel and Gordon Chang that, if Mr. Carter received an invitation to Hades, he would check with the State Department for transportation.

Paul Vigna, DowJones, joined Joe Brusuelas, Bloomberg, and me this evening to lay down the facts about the surprising update to the downside housing cliff-diving of the last month -- down 27% in an unprecedented way.  Paul Vigna calls it "the worst possible news," and adds that everyone expected it down 14% and not market-moving.  This was a blow.  The housing inventory supply now skyrockets to 12 months, which is a disaster. I was told months ago that a 10-month supply was a disaster. Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School joined to say that the tax policy must be clarified, that POTUS must lead, that there is no glass half full if the uncertanty continues about taxes. Larry Kotlikoff of Boston University joined to say that the uncertainty was across the board -- taxes, healthcare, stimulus. There were several voices looking to Quantitative Easing Lite being replaced by QE 2. All eyes on the revision of the 2nd-quarter number on Friday morning and then Ben Bernake's remarks to Jackson Hole.

Spoke Mary Kissel, WSJ at Sydney on Sunday 22, and speaking Peter Coleman, Liberals, and Andrew Shearer, former National Security Adviser, Libaerals, Monday 23 on the thrilling indecision in Oz -- with Labour's Julia Gillard and Liberals' Tony Abbott both making claims on a Minority Government. The winner needs 76 seats. Many ballots remain to be counted. But the projections remain the same, 73 for Abbott, 72 for Gillard. Splinter parties such as Greens and the Sex Party and a trio of Crocodile Dundee/Mad Max lads from "the country" (Outback) all have a say in the final coalition. Too much fun. The Oz dollar is down; the mining companies (who revile Labour) are up; and we all await more zoology from Oz. The video above is courtesy the clever Japanese: great fun, most popular in Oz. You can see that the Sex Party exists, though it is hard to believe. More from Mary Kissel on Tuesday 25 after she gets back to HK.