The news that Lt. General Stanley McChrystal (three stars) the Special Forces veteran is replacing General David McKiernan (four stars) the AirLand veteran in Afghanistan is one warning light of what I learned from a variety of observers Sunday 10 -- that the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan is not going well and that it cannot be won until and if the war against the Taliban in Pakistan is resolved. One more time, the Bengal Lancers must ride into the Swat Valley to subdue the ferocious and never defeated Afridi (left, "The Lives of the Bengal Lancers, Henry Hathaway's 1935 action drama, the 41st Bengal Landers versus the wily villain Mohammed Khan).  John Bolton told me that the Islamabad civilian leadership may well collapse into another military dictatorship. James Lamont, Financial Times, from Delhi, told me that India wants to keep out of the turmoil on the Af-Pak border; and that India knows that it will be the first to suffer if Pakistan collapses. Zahid Hussain, Wall Street Journal, from Islamabad, told me that the presenting crisis is 500,000 Pashtun refugees are fleeing the indiscriminate savagery by Taliban and Pakistani units in the Swat Valley yet finding no government facilities or assistance waiting for them.  The formula is bald: if Pakistan collapses, Afghanistan is lost.  Our old enemy the one-eyed Mullah Omar is in command; and his colleague Osama Bin Laden and the remnant of Al Qaeda are in league with the rebels.  The Islamabad civilian government and the Pakistani military both understand that the Taliban means to take over the northwest part of the country. Zahid Hussain reminded me that A.A. Zardari has been gone from Islamabad for a month of overseas networking. This does not make Zardari more effective or secure.  I am asked if the nukes are secure.  SecDef Robert Gates says the Pakistani nukes are secure.  Then again, Gates just fired McKiernan and sent in a Green Beret.  Not a confidence building exercise.