The John Batchelor Show

Brief

Refugees Abandoned

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OB-DQ730_PAKIST_D_20090512081002.jpgAbove find more evidence that the Wall Street Journal's Zahid Hussain's report to me on Sunday 10 correctly identified the major threat to the stability of Pakistan as the Zardari government's abandonement of the refugees from the Swat Valley. On Sunday, we were dealing with a figure of 500,000, but now in the new report, Zahid Hussain updates to 800,000 those who have fled Swat (total population 2.7 million) and adds the half a million who have long been dislocated from Bajaur and other areas along Afghanistan border. The Pakistani Army has sent 15,000 troops into the region against estimates of 5,000 Taliban. However the Pakistanis do not have counter-insurgency training and are reported to be mowing down villages as well as civilians. More alarming, the US is said to be in praise of this bludgeoning of the Afridis. There are reports that the US has given Predator strike discretion to Pakistani commanders; other reports are that these drone attacks are futile. According to B. Raman, Indian intelligence, the three-part CENTCOM dilemma is overwhelming: 1. Counter-insurgency ops against Neo Taliban and Gulbuddin Heckmatyar in Afghanistan; 2. Counter-sanctuary ops against Al Qaeda safe zones in the Pakistani tribal areas; and 3. Counter-Pakistani Taliban ops in the North-West Frontier Province. The refugees make the war-fighting look ineffective and fraudulent.  When attacked, the Taliban fade away, leaving behind the massacred and starving refugees for the cameras to see.   Again, if Pakistan falls, Afghanistan is lost.

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