1815 Again.
Spoke February 2 to Pakistani Progressive and London pundit Dilip Hiro, author, "After Empire," re what he regards as a multi-polar world of the 21st century in which there are no superpowers who can stand alone, no contest between East and West or North and South. Instead Dilip Hiro argues we now enter into the strategic alliances of the 19th century, called balance of power. The most memorable and useful quote is Lord Palmerston, re his British foreign policy: "Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests." The Quadrennial Report coming from the DoD soon will present the case that the US must prepare for guerilla war fighting, not continental set-pieces. In keeping, the US will fight these conflicts in alliance with other states that share immediate interests and do not share our values or our ambitions. Balance of power will persuade adversaries to negotiate or climb down from confrontations, or so goes the theory. Soon, there will be Triple Ententes and proxy wars and eventually adventurism. Start the rewind to Metternich's Congress of Vienna, 1815. Who is Napoleon III? Who is Bismarck? And what side will Europe and its pal the Whispering Demon take in the coming civil war in Asia?
Simply stated, this represents nothing more than the rhetorical reordering of the chess pieces (on the board) by a nation that is no longer prepared to defend its interests or its principles. This strategy fails to include ‘winning’ as an option. Instead, ‘containment’ has become king by default. This has little to do with the world at large. The world hasn't changed. We have. Our leadership has become so hamstrung by parochial political concerns; it all but precludes a clear forward-thinking vision.
The Bush strategy of surrounding Iran – thus curbing its ambitions - by an American presence in both Iraq and Afghanistan was the last comprehensive strategy for the Middle East that was seriously considered. It would soon develop into a pointless political brawl over whether or not there were WMD's in Iraq. This, as we saw, would eventually derail the overall process, rendering useless every successive gambit.
Now, things have become dangerous for us. What Dilip Hiro predicts has already happened. We bind and gag our military and send it to mediate conflicts as long as winning is not the issue. But make no mistake; our enemies have no intention of standing down. They have no interest in containment. They are fighting for a cause.
Two religious crusades are flourishing as we speak: communism and Islamic jihad. Neither is defined by reason, or by the desire for self-preservation on a conventional plane. Both are defined by faith. Both are determined to proceed by sheer bloody-mindedness. The extent to which we allow them to fill the vacuum created by our own desultory reactive will determine the scope of the carnage we can expect. Given that the throw of the dice guarantees only one in six winning numbers, I'd say our odds a pretty poor.
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