The John Batchelor Show :: De-Brief: March 2011 Archives

Unknown Tribals

By John Batchelor on March 31, 2011 2:37 AM | 2 Comments

Who are the rebels? Mohamed Jibril alWafarlly (a/k/a Mohamed Gibril) is the chief spokesman, recently in London to meet the FMs. Especially HRC. Gibril was a regime stooge until 2010, when he broke with Saif, likely over money. Mention that Gibril's allies on the Transitional Council are too busy to worry about Gibril's past life. Gibril dropped his genuine patronymic because he needs to connect with Westerners. Is he a CIA asset? After the Q-driven flip of WMD in winter 2004, following the fall and capture of Saddam, it is fair to assume that all Q agents in the West were cooperating with some aspect of US or EU state security. Q is looking for a tribal solution to the civil war. NATO is looking for a regime makeover, with Tripoli intact without Q and his immediate cronies. Spoke Farah Stockman, Boston Globe, re Abdullah Al-Sanussi, the Q right-hand enforcer. Al-Sanussi is long notorious as a terror bomber (French airline at Niger, 1989) and a Libyan executioner (prison riot at Benghazi, 1996); however, the West was treating him as an interlocutor from 2006 onward, looking to win contracts via Sanussi introductions. The regime was a Western pet right up until the Arab Spring. Gibril and Sanussi certainly have worked together, with Sanussi the superior hand. Is Gibril a stooge for Sanussi now? Unknown. The tribal connections are critical, and my information is that US State has a limited understanding of loyalties among the tribals. Also, the reported defection of Libyan officials such as Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa needs to be regarded as unproved: this may be part of a negotiation with London -- seeking a ceasefire and a regime makeover with a Q surrogate in power in Tripoli.

Saif to the Rescue

By John Batchelor on March 30, 2011 2:18 PM | 10 Comments

HRC remark at London, ". . . to achieve their aspirations through political change . . ." is the blandest way of describing what begins now as years of manipulation and misdirection by the Euro colonial powers to secure the energy fields of Libya without looking as if they are running 6 million people as feudal tenants. The obstacle to this utopian fairy tale is Q. Am told Q is looking at exile and sniffing, "What about Charles Taylor, oh great Uncle Sugar?" You promised him safe exile in Nigeria if he'd depart his Monrovia nest; however, as soon as the Liberian gov changed hands and decided that Taylor was an outlaw (guided by the geniuses at George Bush State) the ICC closed in and Chuck T sits in the Hague playing video games and hiding his money. Wiki on Taylor gaming 2003:

(In November 2003, the United States Congress passed a bill that included a reward offer of two million dollars for Taylor's capture. While the peace agreement had guaranteed Taylor safe exile in Nigeria, it also required that he not attempt to influence Liberian politics, a requirement that his critics claimed he disregarded.... On 17 March 2006, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the newly elected President of Liberia, submitted an official request to Nigeria for Taylor's extradition...).

Q knows the ICC is the threat, and he does not believe State. Also, the rebels are a nightmare of stooges and regime plants. Also the rebel soldiers are all featured on Al Q jihadists websites as heroes of Iraq and Afghanistan. Guys we used to chase we are now protecting with air. Laughter is a useful emotional release for the You Can't Make This Stuff Up planet of chuckleheads and deadbeats called Earth. Final note: the deep conflict in London is that Pop Q wants Saif Q (below)

to take command of apparatus at Tripoli and run election which he will win overwhelmingly. The Benghazi TNC, stooges all with Western educations and Euro bank accounts, reject this Son-for-Dad deal as the end of their days. Pop the popcorn, as the Italians and Turks love the deal, and the US and French hate it.

Laughter

By John Batchelor on March 28, 2011 2:47 AM | 14 Comments

Newt "Fat Elvis" Gingrich roams around Iowa looking for attention from the handful of GOP characters who have not made a decision about the long-long-ago former Speaker. The GOP is fielding a lineup of the halt, the lame, the rickety, with Newt and Huck and Michelle in the forefront. Laughter is appropriate. The positive of this laugh track is that the rest of the Republican field appears dull enough to be self-aware. Also, Gingrich and Huckabee attract just the right kind correspondent -- sober, overworked, underpaid and eager to reproduce the riotous quotes of the candidates.

Syria Spring

By John Batchelor on March 26, 2011 12:08 PM | 2 Comments

Two details of the Daraa rising at the southernmost border of the rogue state of Syria. First, Daraa is filled with the Druze tribals, who have no strong loyalty to the larger Sunni or Shia populations of the region and have no loyalty to the Allawite clan that describes the Assads of Damascus. Also, Daraa is easy of access to Jordan, which makes it difficult but not impossible for the regime to cut it off with security and military units. Spoke Thursday 24 to Tony Badrun, FDD, who remarks that Daraa is not yet a threat to the regime but that it could trigger wider disruptions; and since then there are reported demonstrations in the cities if Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and so forth. This looks to be the scale of what the Tehran regime faced in June 2009, when it unleashed the Basij. The Syrians have the thug model that works for the Arab Spring. Use the fist or lose it is the lesson from Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Lebanon, Algeria, Morocco, Saudi Arabia.

No-Shoot Zone

By John Batchelor on March 25, 2011 12:40 AM | 4 Comments

Late news from Brussels is that the agreement does not include a no-tank zone. The so-called NATO consensus is that the Italians and Turks will participate as long as not a shot is fired while enforcing a no-fly zone. Get it? The French regard NATO as a trap of cunning limits. The US likes the French position, but doesn't want to assert itself. The Germans will not fight. The rest of the NATO membership is hiding behind the Italian position that, when this is over, we are going to have to deal with the Libyans. Note that Algeria's Bouteflika, dictator since 1999, observes that the Libyan episode destabilizes the region. It is too late to worry about instability. NATO has more conflicts than the tribals of Libya. The meeting of foreign ministers is now scheduled for Tuesday 29 March, and by then the bombing will have achieved very little more than casualties and chaos. Civil wars end when one side runs out of bullets and food. NATO is a sideshow. Qaddafi can settle this with a meeting with the tribals of Cyrenaica. The no-shoot/no-fly zone is an indifference. France, UK and US may well continue ground attack without need of NATO command. The trouble with this is that POTUS and the Obama National Security team cannot easily avoid the war problem when they are participating in what everyone can see on Al Jazeera is war-making.

7:36am

Former US fighter jet pilot Lt. Col. Jay Stout tells us that the dual command that seems to exist within the international military campaign in Libya creates a greater risk of air-to-air collisions or, in the worst case, coalition aircraft accidentally firing on one another.

The latter is probably a remote possibility, since the Gaddafi regime has almost no ability to launch military aircraft anymore. But Stout does highlight a problem: If NATO is policing the no-fly zone while an unnamed coalition led by the US, UK and France can still hit ground targets, who's in charge?

Are these not civilians who need to be protected from the NATO attacks, given the side they are on?

"We can't win without airplanes"

By John Batchelor on March 22, 2011 12:09 PM | 7 Comments

Day four of the bombing campaign made clear to both Europe and the US audiences that there is no mission, no plan, no command and control, no exit plan, no victory measure. Am told that US four-star General Carter Ham at Stuttgart, commanding Africom, understand his task as to protect Benghazi, no more that that. The so-called rebels are safe from Q forces at Benghazi. If and when the rebels go outside of Benghazi, they are on their own. The warplanes also strike at coastal ports associated with Q's weapons and assets -- under the general exlanation that they are degrading the Q fighting force. Am told that Q has plenty of ammo, plenty of weapons, and that we can degrade all we want, there will always be more to purchase to replace what is busted. Am told the tribals are rallying to Q as he repels the Crusaders. The rebel talkers at Benghazi are nonentities who represent their own personalities. Am told the rebels lack a commander, fire-discipline, training, firepower, resources, an escape plan. The rebels have no facility to march on Tripolitania any time soon. The civil war wil turn to a stalemate with sporadic activity along a line south of Benghazi. If the Obama administration can open talks with the Taliban, Hamas, Hizballah, Ikhwan and the Iran Twelvers, how easy it will be to start back-channel chatting with Q.

London reporting:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-libya-gaddafis-forces-dig-into-populated-areas/2011/03/22/ABP5S1AB_story.html?hpid=z1

On Monday, NATO members voiced disagreement over the goal and leadership of the international mission in Libya. The United States had hoped to turn command of the operation over to NATO, but that transition appears to have been delayed by the lack of consensus within the organization.

U.S. officials maintained Monday that they were interested only in shielding civilians from violence and that getting rid of Gaddafi would be up to the Lib yan people. But rebels said more assistance was needed to avert the massacre that would inevitably come if Gaddafi was allowed to remain in power.

"We can't win without the airplanes of the international community," Farhad al-Mraibi, a 55-year-old rebel fighter, said after the retreat. "Gaddafi will kill all of us."

30 Seconds Over Tripoli

By John Batchelor on March 21, 2011 11:47 AM | 7 Comments

Arab League drops out of endorsing the US led attack on Libya (French led?), if it was ever in, since the recommendation to impose a No Fly Zone but not to attack did not make common sense. The headline is a pun: "Moussa Goes Loosey Goosey." (Love the idea that Foreign Secretary William Hague says of Amr Moussa that he will be "talking to him again today.") Easy to guess that the Arab League does not accept that attack an armor column south of Benghazi is making sure tanks don't fly. The strike on Q's Tripoli tent compound is ruinous optics, since it is easy to conclude it was a decap strike -- forcing the DoD and other bodies of geniuses to assert that killing Q is not a war aim. What is the war aim? Protecting civilians? Providing humanitarian reflief. Cyncial man might say that the best way to insure the innocents are relieved of the crisis since mid February is to back off and let Q sweep the so-called rebels out of Benghazi. At the present course, the endgame may well create a fragmented Libya, an endless low-level civil war along the Cyrenaica boundary line; a destabilized Maghreb, and tens of thousands of desperate and alienated refugees into the EU and the US: long after Sarko and Obama and Cameron have left office, we will puzzle over books entitled "30 Seconds Over Tripoli" and "55 Days in Benghazi."

10:38am

Amr Moussa, the secretary general of the Arab League, appeared to backtrack on the League's support for the coalition yesterday, saying the jet and cruise-missile strikes "differ[ed] from the aim of imposing a no-fly zone."

Moussa and his colleagues had asked the UN Security Council days before to institute a no-fly zone and left it up to the member states as to how it might be carried out, so yesterday's remarks had some observers scratching their heads.

Today, UK foreign secretary William Hague attempted a bit of damage control. Hague said he had spoken with Moussa, who still supported the coalition.

"I think too much was made of Amr Moussa's comments," he said. "I will be talking to him again today."

Rally the Tribals

By John Batchelor on March 20, 2011 9:26 PM | 7 Comments

Quaddafi's language aims to rally the tribals against the Crusaders. It is skillful and inspiring. The more the CNN TV emphasizes the mechanical superiority of Western arms, the more the Ummah sees Q as the defender of the faith. Saddam Hussein did not use the crusader trope to any success; however Q is well-positioned. "...the Libyan people will fight against this aggression...and the people of Latin America and Asia, stand with the Libya people in the fight against this aggression...now all the depots are going to be open to defend the armed people and its unity..." The optimum for the so-called coalition -- it lacks a name -- is for the Q forces to quit within the first week. After that, I am told, the tribals will rally to the strength at Tripoli, the rebels at Benghazi will tranform into bargainers with Italians, and the coalition will become the persecutor. Of note in Al Jazeera, the African Union joins China and Russia in condemning the violence.

5:37am
Add Russia to the list of those disapproving of military action in Libya. China has "expressed regret," the African Union has called for an "immediate halt," and now Moscow has "reacted 'with regret'" to the air strikes, according to a report by CNN.
The Russian statement said that the UN Security Council resolution on Libya - which came more than a month after the regime began killing civilian protesters - was "hastily adopted".
5:28am
The African Union has reportedly joined China in expressing disapproval of the coalition's military action against Libya. The AU's Libya committee met in Mauritania and released a statement on Sunday calling for an "immediate halt" to the attacks, the AFP news agency reported.
The AU was created in 1999 after a summit in Sirte, Muammar Gaddafi's hometown, and Libya has both funded the AU and established extensive economic interests throughout sub-Saharan Africa.

A Tomahawk missile is launched from the guided-missile destroyer USS Barry in support of Operation Odyssey Dawn late Saturday night.

3 AM Goes to War

By John Batchelor on March 19, 2011 1:33 PM | 8 Comments

Report that

Qaddafi forces pressing the attack on Benghazi in order to take the rebel leadership off the table for negotiations. Am told that the Paris meeting is much in the hands of StateSec HRC and the French President Sarkozy. (Note that HRC sits with leaders of France, Britain, Germany, on their level, though she is not even Number 3 or 4 in US.) HRC has elbowed VPOTUS Biden out of the way, and his absence is a blow to his reelection prospects. POTUS conceded the high ground to HRC on Friday. HRC proposes that this is the same as the "humanitarian interventionism" practiced by POTUS Bill Clinton in Kosovo in 1999. HRC pressing her advantage within the Obama administration. NSC Tom Donilon and his apprentice (and POTUS scribe) Dennis McDonough not visible, because they are POTUS men, not HRC. The fracturing of the Obama administration national security apparatus apparent with POTUS in Brazil and HRC in France. Repeat, Biden is elbowed aside, so is NSC. Is this HRC move for 2012? How so? HRC loud denials she is continuing in post after 2012 is ceremonial misdirection. Libya is the agreed-upon battle zone. Secretary 3 AM goes to war. The tribals all rally to Q at the moment the infidels threaten air strikes. Q is seen as defender of the faith in Libya. The rebel leaders lose legitimacy for inviting in the Crusaders. The so-called rebel aircraft shot down over Benghazi (reported MiG-23) is a warning to France that this can happen to you. Shot down how? Air to air? Ground to air? MANPADS? Am told that it was likely anti-aircraft fire, as there was no smoke trail associated with MANPAD. Pilot reportedly bailed. Am told SecDef Gates and Joint Chiefs Admiral Mullen are opposed to Uncle Sugar intervention. HRC promising support only so far. If US gets in, we take out air defenses and bases, and that means the arsenals in the deep desert. More coming. Bahrain is more critical. Gates cancels trip to Russia in order to supervise the spatting at White House and watch Mullen arrange the fleet for action. Am told Gates disdains the enterprise but must stay in charge. POTUS and VPOTUS nowhere to be seen. Qaddafi the Defender of the Faith. Welcome to the Battle for Jerusalem, 1100 A.D., Jeanne d'Arc vs. Saladin.

7:52pm

French warplanes hit four pro-Gaddafi tanks on the outskirts of Benghazi in that strike that we reported earlier, sources have told Al Jazeera. There is no immediate word on casualties.

Global Nukes

By John Batchelor on March 17, 2011 2:28 AM | 10 Comments

Tsunami wave March 11-12, 2011. Update on the status of the four crisis units at Fukushima suggests that there is work to be done, but that the engineers are solving this and need the power line and reinforcements to end the uncertainty. The cleanup will be grueling; and the casualty count among the 800 plants workers may not be small. Spoke Keith Bradsher, NYT, who says that TEPCO is not transparent about how badly the workers are hurt -- and will not name the 50 volunteers who continue to work in the Zone.

Nuke Politics.

The tsunami-triggered nuke crisis damage looks increasingly as if it includes the political confidence of Japan, and perhaps also the political will of the nations already committed to nuke plants for their electricity grids. Spoke Judy Dempsey NYT at Berlin re the German rethink of its 17 plants. Angela Merkel orders 7 of them, contemporary with Fukushima, to be shut down for three months while the nuke teams review. There are 143 nukes plants in all 27 EU countries. NEarly two dozen of them are Fukushima's. There is a full EU review underway. The four US plants are also under assault by the greens in Congress: here are the facts:

Thursday, 3/17/11 - John Batchelor's Heads Up Minute

Are U.S. nuclear reactors at risk?

Listen or Download this show

Of the 104 nuke plants int the US are any build on active earhquake zones

Or in risk of a tsnumai. Yes, four plants

I'm John Batchelor, this is the heads up minute.

The four nuke plants build near acruve earthquake zones in the US start with

two in California are within risk distance of the most San Andreas Fault,

Diablo Canyo northwest of Los Angeles

San Onofre on the Pacific coast line between LA and San Diego.

In Arkansas, the Russelville Nuclear One plant is within risk of the active New Madrid fault.

In New York, the Indian point plant is built near not one but two active seismic zones.

All of these plants date back to the 1970s and before, because none have been built in the US for forty years

The four plants on in seismic zones are said to be built to withstand the highest likely earthquake.

The same that is said of the troubled plant in Japan

SignificantlySan Onofre has a seawall 30 feet high

The Tsunami at Fukushima was forty feet.

I'm John Batchelor

Jolly Senator-at-Large for the NCAA

By John Batchelor on March 15, 2011 11:53 AM | 10 Comments

"If he won't lead, we will," Speaker John Boehner tells Larry Kudlow re the CR and the budget contest on the Hill. POTUS is the "he," and the report is that POTUS is playing NCAA hoops bracket wizard before he departs for Brazil at the weekend in order to speak to the admiring throngs. Back on the Hill, the CR will get another rubber stamp from the Harry Reid Senate while the House prepares a new round of cuts. This exercise is humbling but useful. They are debating the 2011 budget, which closes in six months, so this is a practice game for the big contest for 2012. David Drucker, Roll Call, tells me that significant Senate GOP voices grow weary of the maneuvers and will vote against the CR, such as Rubio of Florida and DeMint of South Carolina. Boehner is clearly not enjoying adulation as he goes along with the White House plan to do nothing.

"I want the continuing resolution through September 30th finished as soon as possible. But that's gonna mean real cuts. It's gonna mean real limitations on what this administration can do for the balance of this fiscal year."

POTUS is shrewdly disengaged from the Hill unpleasantries, because it is good for his poll numbers to be jolly, outside of Washington, youthful, unfretful. This is good campaigning tactics; however, there is the detail that the election is not for another nineteen months. Anything can happen about thirty times in this length of time. Jodi Schneider, Bloomberg, tells me that the GOP remains in the advantage in the budget contest, because it proposes, it controls the battlefield. The Democrats, playing defensive, can only react to events. The GOP does not have all of the best tools it needs -- such as a sense of proportion, such as a national presidential candidate -- yet it will soldier on. Events are in the saddle; POTUS is not in the saddle. POTUS resembles the 101st senator, Senator-at-Large Obama, when the presidency is best designed as a Governor-General-at-large.

Rolling Black-Out Politicians

By John Batchelor on March 14, 2011 12:22 AM | 4 Comments

Unit 3 failure; the explosion, late Sunday ET, which is Monday morning Fukushima time. Much more violent explosion than Unit 1 last Friday Tokyo time. Spoke Simon Sproule, Nissan Motors, at Yokohoma, to learn that the major car manufacturers took Monday 14 off, on stand-down, to measure the troubles for their people. Lou Ann Hammond communicates that there are rolling blackouts in store for Japan, each city off the grid for three hours at a time. Not a positive story. The negative remark by Joe Lieberman earlier in the day --- put the brakes on nuclear power in the US -- suggests that the Fukushima crisis will color the US green again, and that enterprising politicians, such as POTUS and the Democrats, will roll hard to the left on a national energy plan that includes nukes. Explosions like Unit 3 do not make the politics easy; however, the GOP will give up its advantage again on energy unless it speaks bluntly that nuke plants are credible and logical. What we are watching in Japan is forty-year out-of-date facilities suffer the weaknesses of planning for the eventuality of earthquake, tsunami, and power outage.

Unit 3 Fail

By John Batchelor on March 13, 2011 12:20 AM | 2 Comments

The video above speaks to Unit No. 1 explosion and sturctural collapse approximately 0630 hours Saturday 12. That is an old problem. The new problem is Unit No. 3: and this bulletin from TEPCO:

* High Pressure Coolant Injection System of Unit 3 automatically stopped. We endeavored to restart the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System but failed. Also, we could not confirm the water inflow of Emergency Core Cooling System. As such, we decided at 5:10AM, Mar 12, and we reported and/or noticed the government agencies concerned to apply the clause 1 of the Article 15 of the Radiation Disaster Measure at 5:58AM, Mar 13. In order to fully secure safety, we operated the vent valve to reduce the pressure of the reactor containment vessels (partial release of air containing radioactive materials) and completed the procedure at 8:41AM, Mar 13.

Translation: TEPCO does not know what is going on inside the containment building: Here is the WaPo report

In an effort to relieve pressure at the failing reactor, Fukushima Daiichi unit 3, the utility said it released "air containing radioactive materials." Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said radiation at the reactor exceeded legal limits and that it was "highly possible" a partial meltdown was under way.

"Because it's inside the reactor, we cannot directly check it, but we are taking measures on the assumption of the possible partial meltdown," he told reporters, according to the Associated Press.

Evacuation up to 20 kilometers in the area is under way. "Partial meltdown" is not clear language.

Here is the full bulletin from TEPCO:

Press Release (Mar 13,2011)
Impact to TEPCO's Facilities due to Miyagiken-Oki Earthquake (as of 8AM)

Below is major impact to TEPCO's facilities due to the Miyagiken-Oki 
Earthquake that occurred yesterday at 2:46PM.
*new items are underlined

[Nuclear Power Station]
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station:
 Units 1 to 3: shutdown due to earthquake
 Units 4 to 6: outage due to regular inspection
* The national government has instructed evacuation for those local 
 residents within 20km radius of the site periphery.
* The value of radioactive material (iodine, etc) is increasing according 
 to the monitoring car at the site (outside of the site). One of the 
 monitoring posts is also indicating higher than normal level.
* Since the amount of radiation at the boundary of the site exceeds the 
 limits, we decide at 4:17PM, Mar 12 and we have reported and/or noticed 
 the government agencies concerned to apply the clause 1 of the Article 15 
 of the Radiation Disaster Measure at 5PM, Mar 12.
* In addition, a vertical earthquake hit the site and big explosion has 
 happened near the Unit 1 and smoke breaks out around 3:36PM, Mar 12th.
* We started injection of sea water into the reactor core of Unit 1 at 
 8:20PM, Mar 12 and then boric acid subsequently.
* High Pressure Coolant Injection System of Unit 3 automatically stopped.
 We endeavored to restart the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System but
 failed. Also, we could not confirm the water inflow of Emergency Core
 Cooling System. As such, we decided at 5.10AM, Mar 12, and we reported
 and/or noticed the government agencies concerned to apply the clause 1 of
 the Article 15 of the Radiation Disaster Measure at 5:58AM, Mar 13.
 In order to fully secure safety, we operated the vent valve to reduce the
 pressure of the reactor containment vessels (partial release of air
 containing radioactive materials) and completed the procedure at 8:41AM,
 Mar 13,
* We continue endeavoring to secure the safety that all we can do and 
 monitoring the periphery.

Fukushima Daini Nuclear Power Station:
 Units 1 to 4: shutdown due to earthquake
* The national government has instructed evacuation for those local 
 residents within 10km radius of the periphery.
* At present, we have decided to prepare implementing measures to reduce 
  the  pressure of the reactor containment vessel (partial discharge of air 
 containing radioactive materials) in order to fully secure safety.
 These measures are considered to be implemented in Units 1, 2 and 3 and 
 accordingly, we have reported and/or noticed the government agencies 
 concerned.
* Unit 3 has been stopped and being "nuclear reactor cooling hot stop" at 
 12:15PM.
* The operator trapped in the crane operating console of the exhaust stack 
 was transferred to the ground at 5:13PM and confirmed the death at 5:17PM.

Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Station:
 Units 1, 5, 6, 7: normal operation
 Units 2 to 4: outage due to regular inspection


[Thermal Power Station]
Hirono Thermal Power Station Units 2 and 4: shutdown due to earthquake
Hitachinaka Thermal Power Station Unit 1: shutdown due to earthquake
Kashima Thermal Power Station Units 2, 3, 5, 6: shutdown due to earthquake
Ohi Thermal Power Station Units 2, 3: shutdown due to earthquake
Higashi-Ohgishima Thermal Power Station Unit 1: shutdown due to earthquake

[Hydro Power Station]
* All the stations have been restored.

[Transmission System, etc.]
4 substations shown below have been shutdown:
- Naka Substation
- Shin Motegi Substation
- Joban Substation
- Ibaraki Substation
- Nishi Mito Substation

[Blackout in TEPCO's Service Area]
Total of about 0.31 million households are out of power.
Tokyo: 0
Kanagawa Pref.: 0
Tochigi Pref.: 7,221
Chiba Pref.: 301
Saitama Pref: 0
Gunma Pref.: 0
Ibaraki Pref: 298,977
Yamanashi Pref: 0
Shizuoka Pref: 0 (east of Fuji River)

[Supply and Demand Status within TEPCO's Service Area to Secure Stable 
Power Supply] 
Backup supply from Shinshinano Conversion Station: 600MW
Backup supply from Sakuma Conversion Station: 300MW
Backup supply from Higashi Shimizu Conversion Station: 100MW

Because TEPCO's facilities have been seriously damaged, power shortage 
may occur. TEPCO appreciates customers' cooperation in reducing electricity 
usage by avoiding using unnecessary lighting and electrical equipment.

We are taking all measures to restore power, however, we expect extremely 
difficult situation in power supply for tomorrow as well.
We kindly ask our customers to cooperate with us in reducing usage of power.

Please do NOT touch cut-off electric wires.

Alaska is downwind.

By John Batchelor on March 12, 2011 7:00 PM | 11 Comments

The Fukushima Daiichi sitrep is not improving quickly, nor is it providing clarity. The update from Reuters points to new heat pressure problems at No. 3 -- which is separate from the ongoing concern at No. 1 that suffered an explosion earlier in the news cycle. From Al Jazeera Blog, which is summarizing the bulletins (all times are Tokyo, GMT + 8): "7:15am More on the danger posed by that second developing problem at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. A Tokyo Electric Power Co spokesman said: All the functions to keep cooling water levels in No.3 reactor have failed at the Fukushima No.1 plant. As of 5:30am, water injection stopped and inside pressure is rising slightly. An emergency report on the plant's condition has been filed with the government, he added. 6:56am AFP says the operator of the Fukushima nuclear power plant, where a second reactor system is overheating, says there is a risk of a second explosion. We'll keep you updated right here."

~~Thinking Alaska Ahead.~~

~~What's the worst that can happen?~~ Trusted colleague sends me the below graphic from Australian Radiation Services. Alaska evacuates first, then we get serious about children and pregnant women from British Columbia to Texas. It does look freshly alarmist; however if they are the worrywarts at Homeland Security that we bargained for, this is useful Plan B/C thinking for a Saturday night around the meltdown campfire.

This is a hoax map that is tricked up to make it appear to be from the real Australian Radioation Services. This explanation from the show Facebook page: Millions Of Americans Will Not Be Killed By Nuclear Fallout In Two Weeks... | Blogotariat

www.blogotariat.com

Australian Radiation Services finds itself inadvertently caught up in a fast spreading online hoax, following the unnerving explosion at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan, after yesterday's 8.9 earthquake and 10 metre tsunami.

Farhrenheit 5000

By John Batchelor on March 12, 2011 2:38 AM | 4 Comments

"The zirconium plating, that contains the uranium fuel, at those kind of temperatures (5000 degrees Fahrenheit), can spontaneously combust...," says Robert Alvarez, Institute for Policy Studies. It unironic to admit, but I welcome this grave tone. Speculation gets real focused at 5000 degrees Fahrenheit. Late note: this does not sound positive:

FLASH: Explosion heard at TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi plant around 0630 GMT - media.

FLASH: Several people appear to have been injured after reported Fukushima plant explosion - media

Bernanke Channels Sheen

By John Batchelor on March 9, 2011 1:33 PM | 9 Comments

The gifted wit Peter Jeffrey at the WSJ.com performs Charlie Sheen as Ben Bernanke in a fashion that allows us to see that both Charlie and Ben are winging it with their self-justifying palaver just because the video is rolling and they are expected to speak. The cigarette lighter is a threat to set Hollywood and the Fed on fire. It is comforting to consider that Sheen's devotion to acting is no more credible than Bernanke's devotion to QE2. Spoke Larry Kudlow and Amity Shlaes Tuesday 8 to debate Alan Greenspan's recanting of his strange devotion to QE2 and POTUS tax hikes on the rich and other unusual departures from Greenspan's adulation of his youthful heroine, Ayn Rand. Amity Shlaes has no final explanation of the inconsistencies, just that Greenspan is certainly working hard now to provide a metric that demonstrates that the more active the government in the marketplace (stimulus, taxes, regulations, programs, social policy acts, hiring), the less active the private investment sector, that is, the growth gang. Gee. Ben Bernanke is the ultimate active government guy with the printing of dollars and flooding the world economy with the shrinking buck. Bernanke on the ultimate drug, the Ben Bernanke; and the planet on the ultimate drug, the Mini-Dollar. Larry and Amity also debated Calvin Coolidge (below), but that is another direction -- though the notion of Bernnake as Sheen as Coolidge is an actor's perfect stretch role.

Libya Tea Party, Q Style

By John Batchelor on March 7, 2011 11:51 AM | 4 Comments

Am told that Qaddafi offensive is a long way from Benghazi; however the Q forces are pressing "rebel forces" in Cyrenaica, the province most in dispute right now. Cyrenaica, the eastern coastal and deep desert province of Libya, is a 2000 year old battlefield that is legendary from the Greeks, the Romans (below), the Arabs and all the way to Tobruk. An agreed upon coastal strongpoint for the "rebels." Benghazi is the centerpiece; however the oilfields of the and the oil depot of Brega are also prizes. Am told Q forces moving slowly, with fighting around Sirt; but they are advancing along the coastal road; while the "rebel forces" are in tatters and without central command, without air, without armor, just dug in guerilla's in various pockets too numerous to be cleaned out easily. The foolish incident of a British diplomat with SAS (MI6) bodyguards trying to locate the "rebel" command before it was captured and thrown out by Q forces, is an example of how romantic and futile the battle for Cyrenaica is. The strongest horses is the one on the attack, that is, Q. Enjoy the celebrations on Libyan TV of a great victory (above: and specially enjoy the Tea Party of Libya, with tax cuts anyone can enjoy (below from Al J):

2:41pm Libyan state TV announces wide-ranging tax cuts. It says: The general public committee has decided to reduce customs on basic commodities to zero per cent and to reduce customs on all other commodities to only five per cent. It also decided to remove all consumption and production taxes. The new changes were made on the occasion of the victory of our great people over the terrorist gangs.

From what am told, the NYT map is out of date with regard so-called "controlled by rebels;" but it does show some of the present battle zone. Libya is divided into three ancient provinces, Tripolitania to the West coast; Cyrenaica to the East coast and deep desert; and Fezzan to the deep Western desert The whole of Tripolitania (West of Brega) is secured, with various outbreaks of riots that are not strategically signifiant. Q forces have put launched airstrikes around Brega at various concentrations of rabble. The understanding is that everyone who resists will be thrown away. The deep desert Fezzan is not significant, as it is all passive tribal and outside the dispute. Benghazi is supplied overland from Egypt: also the evacuation routes to the East may be closed by Egypt: am told that is a determination of the Ikhwan that controls the Egyptian military's thinking now. The days ahead will show panic in Cyrenaica and flight by sea for Crete and Malta, an evacuation of the doomed.

Dogs of Revenge

By John Batchelor on March 5, 2011 1:40 AM | 2 Comments

6:57am This video purports to show an anti-Gaddafi protest in Al Zentan, 160km southwest of Tripoli. We cannot independently verify the accuracy of videos posted on outside websites.

Libya has gone tribal, fight to the death, family to family. Europe and the US are outside the story. The Qaddafi tribe will win everything, or it will lose finally. Am told there is small room for compromise. The Arab League waits for the clear winner. It is the rules for the last thousand years that winner takes all and gets respect. The Greeks called it time, or glory. To challenge another's time is called hubris. The expected response by a powerful sheik who has been challenged by another and lesser sheik is to exact revenge. Tribal revenge, down to the wells. Qaddafi must destroy everyone who has raised a fist against him, or he will fall in stature; and the other sheiks will pull apart the state. The Egyptians, who have a world of unknowns back home, watch Qaddafi do the easy part, which is to unleash his dogs of revenge. The "rebels" know the rules. Inshallah.

Living with Mass Murder

By John Batchelor on March 4, 2011 2:54 AM | 3 Comments

It is a form of mischief that rises to murder to encourage pick-up gangs of "rebels" to grab firearms and drive around in trucks and pretend they are an army of liberation. The Libya civil war will end in tears and mayhem. Order will be restored at the cost of sanity. What you see here is the European media playing at the Spanish Civil War with videocams and satellite communication. Qaddafi is said to be hiring mercenaries from Sub-Saharan Africa countries such as Niger, Mali, Cote D'Ivoire, Sudan, Zimbabwe. The mercenaries will fight when the odds favor victory. The "rebel" forces, outgunned, undermanned, untrained, undisciplined, unreliable, will wear down over days from hunger and fear. Will the EU and AU and NATO and US and UNSC stand by while Qaddafi starves and massacres tens of thousands? Yes. Time to develop Plan B: living with a mass murdering billionaire.

Jihad Shooter

By John Batchelor on March 3, 2011 11:55 PM | 4 Comments

Spoke Scott Stewart, Stratfor.com, re the 21 year-ol Kosovar shooter in Frankfurt, Germany, who attacked airmen enroute form the UK to Ramstein Air Base. According to recent reports, the shooter, Arid Uta, was born in Germany of Kosovar parents and worked at the airport; another version says that he was born in Kosovo. Jihadist radicalization is certainly a possibility, as the reports at the scene included the shooter shouting "Allah-U-Akbar" as he opened fire and other anti-American epithets. The shooter is in custody, and there will be more information about his radicalization. Lone Wolf ops are much the MO of the AQAP crowd that triggered Major Hasan at Fort Hood and the shooter in the Little Rock, Arkansas recruiting office. Little is new here: the youth, the persuasion, the violence, the self-destruction, the attack on "the far enemy" as taught by Al Q. POTUS makes boilerplate remarks that could easily have been spoken soberly by Bill Clinton, George Bush, or the next president,

"We will spare no effort in learning how this outrageous act took place," he said, "and in working with German authorities to ensure that all of the perpetrators are brought to justice."

Yellow on Libya

By John Batchelor on March 2, 2011 2:28 PM | 19 Comments

Yellow Light. Random notes. The airstrikes in Libya were not on the oil field but nearby, where the rebels are brewing, Adjdabiya. The Qaddafi regime -- dad and son -- are threatening to nationalize the oil fields and hand them off to the Chinese, Russians, Brazilians. The US heavies are frightened. So is the EU, because the EU has been promsied that its people will be protected if it backs off. Who promised? The Russians. This is Metternichian politics. The US is out of the game; and POTUS keeps it softly, softly because the NSC is overwhelmed with incoming contradictory information. George Marshall and Hap Arnold could handle this, not many others. Yellow light. There is much more, but you see the themes. What is the break point for EU? Am told Brent crude $140 barrel sets back recovery a decade. Am told Brent crude $160 bl vaporizes the euro because of debt. Fill the SUV tonight! Seat belts!

Budget Popcorn

By John Batchelor on March 1, 2011 2:35 AM | 10 Comments

Spoke David Drucker, Roll Call, to learn that Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer see that the polls do not support a shutdown, and that if there is a shutdown, both parties and both Houses and the White House, too, will be blamed. Steve Moore, speaking Tuesday 1, with Larry Kudlow, will outline how the SuperKeynesians at the White House, and their handmaidens and Goldman and so forth, now argue that cutting the budget will cost jobs. What jobs? The public service jobs that were maintained expensively for two years with the stimulus of 2009 and the skills of the governors, legislators and union chiefs. Spoke Jason Richwine, Heritage, to learn that the California municipal union members have a job package that is 20-30% greater than the private sector jobs of the state. The light opera in Madison, Wisconsin, now turns to the final scene, as Scott Walker issues the old 24-hour ultimatum to the runaway Democrats. Pop the popcorn.

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