De-Brief

Waiting for Boehner

2010-09-02T16:02:29Z

The wave grows and so does the likelihood of hijinks and shenanigans in the Lame Duck and in January. Am writing for the Beast on waiting for the Republican leadership: John Boehner is in dress rehearsal to become the Speaker of the House for the putative Republican Congress, and what the feverish partisans among us need to accept is that this chain-smoking, conflict-averse, glad-handing and peculiarly orange-tinged golfer is the pay-off for the last two years of Lilliputian turmoil. No matter how successful the Tea Party and Club for Growth vote on Election Day - sixty-seat swing! Coup de main! - all the king's horses cannot do more come January and the 112th Congress than to wait on the modest brainpower of a sixty-one-year-old professional Ohio pol who, on his best day, is described by a wag as so out of touch with the American culture that he thinks of himself as cool, just like Dean Martin....

Alvin Greene Nation

2010-09-01T22:26:46Z

A minor puzzlement is why a few partisan actors continue to toy with Alvin Greene. Perhaps the summer season is idle for the relaxed partisans in the Carolinas. Mr. Greene remains a mystery--but not a profound one. His military service, his inventiveness, his spontaneous enthusiasm, all point to a self-confident, earnest opportunist. There is little suggestion that he has been mentored, or that he has any experience as a politician. He brings an air-guitar enthusiasm to a sober role. The South Carolina Democratic Party looks not to be helping him or even especially interested in the spotty campaign. The prominent James Clyburne of the House asserts that he will not support Greene. Sixty days to go. What I like about Mr. Greene is that he is relentlessly game. The pending charges against him for sexual misconduct are serious, yet he remains an innocent accused. Something about the way Greene has pushed himself into the conversations feels like a throwback to the early 19th century, an age of amateur politicians who were suspicious and charismatic at the same time. Then again, this is the age of celebrities called Gaga and Levi Johnston, and so perhaps it is also Alvin Greene Nation. Perhaps Alvin Greene is just a random, youthful, goofy and not unhumble performance artist with the sort of troubles that come to solitary young men. The $10,000 registration fee in order to become a candidate for the Senate on the Democratic line remains the centerpiece of the mystery.

Is it a trick POTUS the second time?

2010-08-31T14:46:34Z

Roger Federer's between the legs put-away shot was novel when he tried it in Europe, but in Queens it begins to look like a signature brand or a quirk. Not something you teach. Studying the Federer set-up, the reaction of the crowd (smiles, shrugs, laughter, no amazement this time), I am thinking of how the court media now respond to an Obama trick speech. Smiles, shrugs, laughter, no amazement. POTUS hit a low point with the Oval Office speech on the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe. POTUS does not have his game back. The remarks on Iraq this news cycle will not dazzle. Lots of palaver, generalities, moving in the right direction, support the troops, promises kept, palaver. The trick shot is that POTUS can stand up and do it at all, since he brings no new thing to the court media. The Democrats in the stands are exiting early from the center court, back to their campaigns to hold on to 60%-plus districts in Blue states, since everything else looks to be in jeopardy. Time for a new trick shot, POTUS. (Mention the whisper that POTUS disdains the job, that POTUS feels trapped by his historical significance, that POTUS limits himself to a handful of aides and no outside counsel, that POTUS is happiest deep inside the bubble with a cigarette and a pout at any 9th tee.)

Jobs Moratorium

2010-08-30T04:41:27Z

It is a mystery to many professionals why POTUS continues to talk around the jobs problem no matter the season, no matter the conflict. The Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana (sister of the New Orleans mayor, Mitch Landrieu) implores POTUS to speak of jobs lost with the moratorium on deepwater drilling (below, Landrieu with Governor Bobby Jindal). POTUS refuses in his speech at Xavier University on Sunday 29 to mention the issue in his remarks Instead, POTUS speaks of education, of the 100-year barrier constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers, of the excitement of New Orleans still searching for a return to the status quo. The White House conducted the speech like a campaign event, with the usual wall of diversity arranged like mannequins behind the lordly POTUS. The White House is mechanical. POTUS is mechanical. This was POTUS's first trip to New Orleans in 20 months in office. Not much to show for his big talk during the 2008 campaigns. Has POTUS lost his touch? John Fund observes that John McCain's clumsiness made Candidate Obama look better than the fact of the matter. Without an opponent for POTUS to parry and mock, POTUS is not magic. Or has POTUS made a decision that he does not want to do this job? There are rules to the White House. You play the country from the point of view of the polls.

REO Dumping

2010-08-29T18:35:22Z

The shadow that looms over the economic recovery is made up of many parts of disorder and uncertainty, but certainly the most obvious are Fannie and Freddie and the $12 trillion residential mortgage market, a quarter of which may already be underwater. The video above by the trenchant Jim Klinge (a/k/a "Jim the Realtor" from the vibrant and transparently rueful http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/Calculated Risk site) illustrates the challenge for San Diego County, and in doing so represents the top of the pile of the challenge. This Carmel Valley (below) location, location, location is the best of the national mess. A 2005-built house that goes into foreclosure and goes back to the bank, is then listed by the indifferent and cautious bank with an out-of-town broker (Sacramento?) at $789,900, and is then dumped after 58 days on an FHA loan bid at $650K. This is a 17% discount for a newer home in an attractive neighborhood of an active and far from abandoned-all-hope city. Use this formula for all the housing out there. We are now down 30% from the peak, with another 17% AND HIGHER to go. Whole neighborhoods must be marked down before we can start repairing the black holes of Fan and Fred. So far, in the extend and pretend fiasco engineered by the Obama administration and Congress, we see just one-offs, rogue listings, more of the wait-until-prices-recover. "This was the REO listed by a Sacramento broker," Jim explains on the video. "... listed this for $789,900, I believe, and just showed up closed, 58 days on the market...get this, $650,000 FHA... ...650 FHA for 3700 square feet... it's a great time to look, good time to be a looker. It took somebody to have the guts to make an offer to FHA to get this deal....I don't think we're going to see the whole market dump like this...tract homes built in '05. ..we'll see.."

Celestial Roulette

2010-08-28T06:30:02Z

Among the few unbounded joys left me in this century is the plotting for the NEO (Near Earth Objects) or pair of NEOs that will come suddenly (or slowly) and strike the Earth at 14 km/second. The scenarios are rehearsed. There will be surprises. Are we ready? No. Can we prepare? Yes. Will we? That is politics. It is celestial Russian roulette. One bullet in the chamber of the solar system. Where does it strike. Not if.

Nabbed Geniuses

2010-08-27T04:25:46Z

Dumb and Dumber and Pal Wastebasket Head.

The news report is that the Pakistan-rooted genius above, who performed in a self-loathing fashion for world-weary youthful celebrities on "Canadian Idol," is part of the trio of jihadi plotters arrested in Canada. Bomb parts, plans and jihad lit in their possession. It takes a strong man not to break down laughing at the fact that these bozos are likely not all that different from the characters who conducted 9-11. The routine lesson that a mind is a terrible thing to waste has not reached the jihad websites. These sad sacks are said to be seeking an act of violence to redeem the marginal folly of their privileged and pointless lives. Reminds me of the Marine guideline, be nice to all you meet (in Iraq, Afghanistan and so forth Ummah wilderness), and have a plan to kill them. The Canadians are baby chumps to tolerate this cretinous crowd of wannabees. Shrug. I suppose I am jumping to conclusions. A puzzle is, Was their trash talk about building a bomb for the US or Canada or the "Idol" Green Room? The facts supprt that they were part of a gang. Three of the gang are now fled overseas to Dubai and so forth. The three nabbed geniuses, appearing in court, are part of a well-financed delusional plot. One of them traveled to Iran in order to slip into Afghanistan for bomb training. Again, we are not seeing much about the root causes here of poverty and alienation. These are manicured, spoiled, relentless punks who are web-savvy and self-indulgent. Jihad this, guys.

Jimmy Peculiar

2010-08-26T04:18:47Z

Spoke Mary Kissel, AWSJ, and Gordon Chang, Forbes, re the surprise and illogical visit of President Jimmy Carter to North Korea in the midst of US State and the White House pushing for more and tougher sanctions on North Korea for the March 26 ship-sinking. Mr. Carter is pictured smiling and buoyant. He is said to be on a mission of mercy to rescue a troubled American who decided foolishly to travel to North Korea without invitation, and who may have been tortured, or who may have tried to destroy himself. It does not appear that the excuse is adequate to the sudden trip. Mr. Carter asserts that he is traveling as a private citizen. At the same time, a news report from South Korea states that the tyrant Kim, who is long reported suffering severe illness, is now visiting China for the second time this year. Odd timing. Mention that if Kim is too reduced to be photographed with Carter, a useful fiction would be to say that Kim is away. In any event, Mr. Carter's trip is peculiar, unexplained, open to many interpretations and plainly off-message from the presumed sanctions regime against a rogue regime and a failed state of thugs and slaves. Beijing continues to sponsor and endorse the Kim crimes; the Korean peoples are correct to hold China responsible for the Kim depravity. Mr. Carter's responsibility remains a mystery. I jested to Mary Kissel and Gordon Chang that, if Mr. Carter received an invitation to Hades, he would check with the State Department for transportation.

Worst Possible News

2010-08-26T03:08:43Z

Paul Vigna, DowJones, joined Joe Brusuelas, Bloomberg, and me this evening to lay down the facts about the surprising update to the downside housing cliff-diving of the last month -- down 27% in an unprecedented way. Paul Vigna calls it "the worst possible news," and adds that everyone expected it down 14% and not market-moving. This was a blow. The housing inventory supply now skyrockets to 12 months, which is a disaster. I was told months ago that a 10-month supply was a disaster. Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School joined to say that the tax policy must be clarified, that POTUS must lead, that there is no glass half full if the uncertanty continues about taxes. Larry Kotlikoff of Boston University joined to say that the uncertainty was across the board -- taxes, healthcare, stimulus. There were several voices looking to Quantitative Easing Lite being replaced by QE 2. All eyes on the revision of the 2nd-quarter number on Friday morning and then Ben Bernake's remarks to Jackson Hole.

Crocodile Oz Sex Party

2010-08-23T17:19:02Z

Spoke Mary Kissel, WSJ at Sydney on Sunday 22, and speaking Peter Coleman, Liberals, and Andrew Shearer, former National Security Adviser, Libaerals, Monday 23 on the thrilling indecision in Oz -- with Labour's Julia Gillard and Liberals' Tony Abbott both making claims on a Minority Government. The winner needs 76 seats. Many ballots remain to be counted. But the projections remain the same, 73 for Abbott, 72 for Gillard. Splinter parties such as Greens and the Sex Party and a trio of Crocodile Dundee/Mad Max lads from "the country" (Outback) all have a say in the final coalition. Too much fun. The Oz dollar is down; the mining companies (who revile Labour) are up; and we all await more zoology from Oz. The video above is courtesy the clever Japanese: great fun, most popular in Oz. You can see that the Sex Party exists, though it is hard to believe. More from Mary Kissel on Tuesday 25 after she gets back to HK.

Hung Oz #ausvotes

2010-08-22T04:28:56Z

Speaking Mary Kissel, WSJ, on Sunday 22 (Monday 23 in Sydney) re the hung parliament from the Australian general election just concluded. Mary Kissel reported Friday 20 (Saturday 21 in Sydney) that it was considered the most exciting election in fifty years, and this was before the results that leave Tony Abbott and the Liberals with an inchworm lead over PM Julia Gillard. The projections just now are for Liberals 73 and Labour 72, with a handful of independents to determine the flimsy 76 needed for majority choice of a PM. Mary Kissel posts on Twitter that the negotiations are under way and remain at odds. Recommend watching on Twitter, most lively and playful. #ausvotes. In sum, it looks like the same sort of inconclusive result as what recently settled London with David Cameron and Nick Clegg as the coalition. The new normal for Old Blighty and Oz is no normal. Oz will now enter the Talking Cure of Politics. Is this a trend? A product of parliamentary system muddiness? On the other hand, it looks as though the Liberals surged into authority after two years of living in the shadows. What did Labour do wrong? Spending and taxes, taxes and spending. And there was that creative nuttiness launched by the disgraced and discarded Kevin Rudd that Global Warming was the end of Mankind and elephants, too.

Jobless Venom

2010-08-21T06:36:40Z

Madeleine Lim, DowJones, tells colleague Simon Constable that the corporations will not hire until there is a solution to Regime Uncertainty -- chiefly taxes to pay for the deficits as well as the healthcare and the FinReg geniuses. This is an official observation by a professional who is paid to describe certainty to the markets, and to identify uncertainty where it exists. The Obama administration has been weakened by its stubbornness to spend (stimulus and bailouts) and pretend (mortgage adjustments, mortgage purchases, Fannie/Freddie zombiehood), a simple political calculation aimed to get to the election with the jobs-created number improving month to month. Spoke Joseph Brusuelas, Bloomberg, who says the GDP downgrade by JP Morgan Chase to 1.5% or so for the remainder of the year means that we are looking at the risk of a decline in jobs again in 2011. Instead of adding the needed 150-200K jobs per month in the fourth quarter, we will add 50-100K, and this means that we are shrinking the employed because it does not account for population growth -- all the demand for jobs from the young joining the workforce. Next year, the jobless rate, measured by household survey, will likely climb above 10%. Expect noisy, paradoxical, venomous revolution by August 2011, cheered by a GOP Congress.

One Year Fraud

2010-08-20T17:55:49Z

The Lockerbie bomber Al-Magrahi fraud is deepening the problems of the Obama administration to escape the inevitable "What did you know and when did you know it?" inquiries that will begin anew after the midterm. The Gordon Brown government cravenly signed off on this scam, and the Scottish government is not an adult enterprise, entirely dependent upon London and so forth. Still, gentlemen are hard-pressed to listen to the details of how the Scots went along with the fake medical reports, and how the Brits connived with BP for Libyan oil rights in exchange for al-Magrahi's sorry soul, and how the White House signed off on the scam -- gentlemen are hard-pressed to listen and not to break down laughing in public. Straight face now. The mass-murdering al-Magrahi has only three months to live, and it is a miracle that he has now been dead for nine months and still insists upon saying he is alive.

Goodman to Dean to White House

2010-08-19T04:23:12Z

My producer/engineer David Goodman secured the Howard Dean interview this afternoon for the "Goodman to Go" feature on WABCRadio.com, and within an hour of his sending it out, the story had raced through the partisan sites and was national news. Congratulations to David, and I spoke to him in the first hour re his worthy achievement. Meanwhile, the Howard Dean remark, calling the mosque at Ground Zero an "affront," has damaged if not derailed the Democratic momentum to condemn all opponents as Gingrichian hate clowns. More soon. What tidy and gentle theater that the great and powerful White House message unit was undone for an evening by an earnest, hardworking 24-year-old tyro with a splendid weekly few minutes of his own on a podcast on the WABC website -- what was David's earnest, thoughtful, passionate genius is now the national hot story for mid-August.

Answering the Wrong Question Precisely

2010-08-18T18:38:34Z

Liz Cheney is attached to the heartbreaking ad above, and it is a stunner. Try this with the "Battle Hymn of the Republic" being hummed instead of the piano and orchestra background. POTUS in Ohio takes a tossed question about his confusing remarks on the mosque and says, in rehearsed casualness, that he has "No regrets." Meanwhile, there is evidence from the across the Senate races and from the Rust Belt CDs that the Independents are stepping away from the Democrats. The White House is at the center of this tempest now, and the story has moved 'way past the POTUS palaver. No time even to stop to laugh about Nancy Pelosi calling this a "zoning" dispute. New polling shows that 2 out of 3 New Yorkers, and 2 out of 3 Americans, oppose the mosque at the present site. The op-ed gang, led by Maureen Dowd, NYT, and Richard Cohen, WaPo, are struggling to frame this as First Amendment stuff. This does not hold up, because of the detail that the request by opponents such as two-thirds of New York is that the mosque be built, as Harry Reid obligingly says, "someplace else." The Democrats who argue First Amendment and the partisans who attack the GOP as intolerant are making the Error of the Third Kind: answering the wrong question precisely. It is not if http://www.nationalreview.com/node/244104 the mosque is to be built; it is where the mosque is to be built.