The Bloody-Minded Gloomy Wits at Calculated Risk Boards.
The collapse of the financials, the emergency weekend talks by Citi to rescue the furniture, and
the overall landscape of defeat, retreat, panic, incoherence, deception, ghoulish laughter, is now inspiring the commenters to reach for dystopian genius. Below is a collection of my favotite from the hundreds. I listen closely, because some of these folk have watched millions of their own dollars melt to steam and most of them no longer have jobs to believe in. Also, a few, the really funny ones, will disappear by Christmas. It's a long war, and there's only one gas mask for the four of us. And do I think these (mostly) guys and gal are sincere or just sitting around at night staring at the closing price of Citi and GM and GS? I answer cautiously. (Caveat: I am a professional dystopian story-teller.) (Caveat 2: My Sunday show in NY and DC starts at the same 7 pm Eastern Time that we will hear the fate of the emergency meeting between Citi's Vikram Pandit and Bob Rubin -- and the sad-sack 43rd presidency's Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, George Bush and also, via intermediaries, Barack Obama's new fall guy, Timothy Geithner for Treasury in the sad-sack 44th presidency.) My answer right now: I think we start rehearsing scenarios long before we make plans of action; and that the plans are made and confirmed just before we need them; and that when trouble is obvious, such as a power cut and sounds of gunfire from the interstate, then you throw out the plan and go back to the original fantastic scenarios in your memory, except you do it without adequate water, food, ammunition or discipline. How long? Nah. Not this time. We're rehearsing. Next time we make a plan. Time after that: Goodbye.
(Pictures above and below of Citi in NYC, Citi in Los Angeles, at 444 Flower and City in London at Canary Wharf. The Beresford is where Vikram Pandit lives until and if he has to find a buyer for his $18 million duplex and get out of town.)
Some reading on societal collapse that
I have found interesting.
"How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse":
http://www.xs4all.nl/~wtv/powerd...rdown/ greer.htm
Here is the author's blog as well:
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/
Unit472 writes:
Anyone remember that great drive-in film from the early 60's "PANIC IN THE YEAR ZERO"?
Ray Milland starred as a father taking
his family on a camping vacation when
LA gets nuked. Its almost a 'how to'
survive when the going gets tough.
I'm of mixed opinion of whether it would be better to 'get out of Dodge' or 'shelter in place'. Back in the era
of imminent nuclear war most people subscribed to the 'shelter in place' mode and quite literally. You built an
adequately provisioned fallout shelter.
There you could survive and defend your family until the less prepared had perished and radioactivity had subsided. What you emerged into was a major problem yet to be overcome but emerge you would.
This has a whole lot more going for it
than the flee to the countryside mode.
If you've got to become an animal it is best to have a den or nest. Being out in the open with strangers is probably a bad idea.
Anyone remember that great drive-in film from the early 60's "PANIC IN THE YEAR ZERO"?
Ray Milland starred as a father taking
his family on a camping vacation when
LA gets nuked. Its almost a 'how to'
survive when the going gets tough.
I'm of mixed opinion of whether it would be better to 'get out of Dodge' or 'shelter in place'. Back in the era
of imminent nuclear war most people subscribed to the 'shelter in place' mode and quite literally. You built an
adequately provisioned fallout shelter.
There you could survive and defend your family until the less prepared had perished and radioactivity had subsided. What you emerged into was a major problem yet to be overcome but emerge you would.
This has a whole lot more going for it
than the flee to the countryside mode.
If you've got to become an animal it is best to have a den or nest. Being out in the open with strangers is probably a bad idea.
Privateer Gerkinov writes:
In Kurt Vonegut's 'Slapstick' the US turns into fiefdoms with the King of Michigan warring against the Duke of Ohio or something like that.
I'm not sure how prophetic Kurt was though, because he also had the Chinese shrinking to the sise of dust particles to compensate for their rising population.
In Kurt Vonegut's 'Slapstick' the US turns into fiefdoms with the King of Michigan warring against the Duke of Ohio or something like that.
I'm not sure how prophetic Kurt was though, because he also had the Chinese shrinking to the sise of dust particles to compensate for their rising population.
Comrade Peronista writes:
Finally we have truth.
Cavuto: "Where do you draw the line with our money?"
Republican Congressman: "It's not your money."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6...h? v=6ZyAd_rJAx4
Finally we have truth.
Cavuto: "Where do you draw the line with our money?"
Republican Congressman: "It's not your money."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6...h? v=6ZyAd_rJAx4
nullpointer writes:
unirealist-
i must admit i do have a months worth of cash hidden in the basement :)
...and i am not a complete kudlow - i went to 70% cash august 2007, then 100% cash 2 months ago.
i do concede that things are bad; really bad in fact.
but not mad max/argentina bad.
unirealist-
i must admit i do have a months worth of cash hidden in the basement :)
...and i am not a complete kudlow - i went to 70% cash august 2007, then 100% cash 2 months ago.
i do concede that things are bad; really bad in fact.
but not mad max/argentina bad.
unirealist writes:
My family lives in a tiny ag town that's only a half-hour drive from a 65k city.
Let me tell you, you can stop dreaming about "getting out into the country" right now.
How is any rural area going to survive food and energy scarcitiesby itself, let alone with thousands of refugees from the city that got out too late?
Like I said, dream on. Even if the authorites don't roadblock you all into the city, the rural areas will sure as hell roadblock you out.
And I'm not being mean-spirited, just realistic about the rural attitudes that will prevail. We have urban siblings I wish could join us in our bankerdome, but if they're allowed in, everybody's urban relatives will have to be let in, and that would triple the size of the town.
Just saying, take that dynamic into account, as you plan your escape. More than likely, every town will have entry barriers, and you'll directed on down the road - with rifle barrels.
Oh, also - rural folks are armed.
My family lives in a tiny ag town that's only a half-hour drive from a 65k city.
Let me tell you, you can stop dreaming about "getting out into the country" right now.
How is any rural area going to survive food and energy scarcitiesby itself, let alone with thousands of refugees from the city that got out too late?
Like I said, dream on. Even if the authorites don't roadblock you all into the city, the rural areas will sure as hell roadblock you out.
And I'm not being mean-spirited, just realistic about the rural attitudes that will prevail. We have urban siblings I wish could join us in our bankerdome, but if they're allowed in, everybody's urban relatives will have to be let in, and that would triple the size of the town.
Just saying, take that dynamic into account, as you plan your escape. More than likely, every town will have entry barriers, and you'll directed on down the road - with rifle barrels.
Oh, also - rural folks are armed.
bgates writes:
I don't see where the survivalist whacko perspective is coming from, aside from the normal need for medication.
so the middle class is going to get cut in half, and we will see depression-era breadlines.
wasn't this inevitable anyways? the reality is that only a very small percentage of our society contributes actual value in a time of such technological advances.
what's normal is the society we're becoming, where those without an education or niche skillset have a hard time finding a substantial income relative to costs. what isn't normal is the gigantic service economy we were for the past few decades, with plenty of room for folks that offered negligible value in the public sector and FIRE sector.
seriously, this scenario is the better one for social stability than the other extreme - under $2 gas and $100 sq/ft housing in the crappy exurbs is the american dream fairly priced. and, best of all, we'll get a chance to invest in DJIA 5000 levels - which probably means a great return as of 2030.
I don't see where the survivalist whacko perspective is coming from, aside from the normal need for medication.
so the middle class is going to get cut in half, and we will see depression-era breadlines.
wasn't this inevitable anyways? the reality is that only a very small percentage of our society contributes actual value in a time of such technological advances.
what's normal is the society we're becoming, where those without an education or niche skillset have a hard time finding a substantial income relative to costs. what isn't normal is the gigantic service economy we were for the past few decades, with plenty of room for folks that offered negligible value in the public sector and FIRE sector.
seriously, this scenario is the better one for social stability than the other extreme - under $2 gas and $100 sq/ft housing in the crappy exurbs is the american dream fairly priced. and, best of all, we'll get a chance to invest in DJIA 5000 levels - which probably means a great return as of 2030.
YLSP writes:
The plan should be simple:
a) Learn to recognize that the stuff is getting close to the fan. Reading something like CR is a start as when it does it the fan the government and media will be telling everyone not to panic.
b) Have a plan that executes quickly.
For example, up until this point I've always thought I'd be screwed since my plan involved packing all my junk into an SUV and driving cross country. Why can't my plan be going to LAX with my family and purchasing plane tickets? All we really need is ourselves and clothes on our back that we can take with some paper.
I think for most Americans it's hard to fathom "drop everything and leave", but I think that "drop everything and leave" mentality is the one that leads to survival whereas the mentality of "I can't leave my stuff, I can't leave my pictures, I can't leave my life..." will get some people killed.
Seriously can't believe I'm talking like this right now... I'm just gonna tell myself that it's a big mental game.
So I think for those that say they can't get out of LA... if you leave before anyone else thinks about leaving... even if you do end up paying like a 300-500% premium on airline tickets... its worth it.
But seriously... I'm normally not so negative...
The plan should be simple:
a) Learn to recognize that the stuff is getting close to the fan. Reading something like CR is a start as when it does it the fan the government and media will be telling everyone not to panic.
b) Have a plan that executes quickly.
For example, up until this point I've always thought I'd be screwed since my plan involved packing all my junk into an SUV and driving cross country. Why can't my plan be going to LAX with my family and purchasing plane tickets? All we really need is ourselves and clothes on our back that we can take with some paper.
I think for most Americans it's hard to fathom "drop everything and leave", but I think that "drop everything and leave" mentality is the one that leads to survival whereas the mentality of "I can't leave my stuff, I can't leave my pictures, I can't leave my life..." will get some people killed.
Seriously can't believe I'm talking like this right now... I'm just gonna tell myself that it's a big mental game.
So I think for those that say they can't get out of LA... if you leave before anyone else thinks about leaving... even if you do end up paying like a 300-500% premium on airline tickets... its worth it.
But seriously... I'm normally not so negative...
(Right, the plotocratic Beresford on Central Park West at 89th Street, home to celebrities like Jerry Seinfeld and to scapegoats like Citi boss of the moment Vikram Pandit, just in case you want to plan ahead for the torch carrying mobs who will demand their money back.)
videoguy writes:
Thanks Mock Turtle. Good to be in a small town where people know you and your past. Hope they listen and develop a plan with resources.
Watched an interview of a civilization collapse survival expert. He had three bits of advice:
1) Get out of the city.
2) Get out of the city.
3) Get out of the city.
Wish that was an option. Time for bed.
Thanks Mock Turtle. Good to be in a small town where people know you and your past. Hope they listen and develop a plan with resources.
Watched an interview of a civilization collapse survival expert. He had three bits of advice:
1) Get out of the city.
2) Get out of the city.
3) Get out of the city.
Wish that was an option. Time for bed.
mock turtle writes:
lets face it
the chances are about 50 50 that we are headed for something that looks like the great depression..maybe better maybe worse
ya cant just hole up in your basement
the best way to be safe is to take care of your neighborhood
meet with local community leaders and talk about ways you can make sure every body is getting enough to eat and has a roof over their head
im on the agenda the next two weeks to talk to the local school board and the local town council
the fear is the big city to the north...when people wander out hungry they are going to be scared and they are going to be angry
lets face it
the chances are about 50 50 that we are headed for something that looks like the great depression..maybe better maybe worse
ya cant just hole up in your basement
the best way to be safe is to take care of your neighborhood
meet with local community leaders and talk about ways you can make sure every body is getting enough to eat and has a roof over their head
im on the agenda the next two weeks to talk to the local school board and the local town council
the fear is the big city to the north...when people wander out hungry they are going to be scared and they are going to be angry
MS writes:
Growing some of your own food would be a start. Just takes on a whole new perspective when that head of lettuce you grew in your backyard costs 7 bucks in the store.....if you can get it.
I'm not trying to paint a doom scenario-the system that leveraged itself to the next solar system has done a wonderful job of doing it for me. I'm advocating preparation...I hope it doesn't come to the things I've opined on.
The real issue is how long can our society hold out when reality is not allowed into the system that we've created....a finance-based economy that is out of the ability to manage and control itself.
It's really disappointing to me, as I'm sure it is to all of you. It's broken and the actions of the last few months have made it worse. It didn't have to be that way but it's added several year's to any real recovery IMO.
Ciao
MS
Growing some of your own food would be a start. Just takes on a whole new perspective when that head of lettuce you grew in your backyard costs 7 bucks in the store.....if you can get it.
I'm not trying to paint a doom scenario-the system that leveraged itself to the next solar system has done a wonderful job of doing it for me. I'm advocating preparation...I hope it doesn't come to the things I've opined on.
The real issue is how long can our society hold out when reality is not allowed into the system that we've created....a finance-based economy that is out of the ability to manage and control itself.
It's really disappointing to me, as I'm sure it is to all of you. It's broken and the actions of the last few months have made it worse. It didn't have to be that way but it's added several year's to any real recovery IMO.
Ciao
MS
salesanalyst writes:
so is this a good time to run up a bunch of expensive purchases on my Citi MasterCard? You know the kind that don't require interest payments for a year, like new furniture or a plasma TV.
Enquiring minds want to know.
so is this a good time to run up a bunch of expensive purchases on my Citi MasterCard? You know the kind that don't require interest payments for a year, like new furniture or a plasma TV.
Enquiring minds want to know.
tranches of leinenkugel writes:
No high profile perp walks yet. And I have this growing fear that with "no drama Obama," we won't see any.
It's not just that I want to see justice, I think the system absolutely needs it to restore any sense of credibility.
No high profile perp walks yet. And I have this growing fear that with "no drama Obama," we won't see any.
It's not just that I want to see justice, I think the system absolutely needs it to restore any sense of credibility.
$12 Help writes:
This is how Citi worked.
Seller: I have a first lien loan for sale.
C: mmmh kay.
Seller: I have a second lien loan for sale.
C: Is the property in California?
Seller: Yes.
C: I'll buy!!!
This is how Citi worked.
Seller: I have a first lien loan for sale.
C: mmmh kay.
Seller: I have a second lien loan for sale.
C: Is the property in California?
Seller: Yes.
C: I'll buy!!!
DCRogers writes:
FFDIC(Excellent) writes: SCENARIOS: How the government might help Citigroup
Ahem... hold on... (switch to all caps)... HOW COME NOT A SINGLE ONE OF THE "HELPFUL" SCENARIOS INVOLVED GETTING RID OF THE MANAGEMENT OR THE BOARD?
Every scenario summed up to:
1) More $$$ to current mgmt
2) ???
3) C saved!
FFDIC(Excellent) writes: SCENARIOS: How the government might help Citigroup
Ahem... hold on... (switch to all caps)... HOW COME NOT A SINGLE ONE OF THE "HELPFUL" SCENARIOS INVOLVED GETTING RID OF THE MANAGEMENT OR THE BOARD?
Every scenario summed up to:
1) More $$$ to current mgmt
2) ???
3) C saved!
nades writes:
On a related note - my shopaholic daughter tells me gift cards are tres gauche this year - the stores all seem to blow up before you can spend them. Cash is way cool though.
dryfly
I got this email from someone who pays no attention to anything regarding the economy. Please note I dont know its validity I only post it because it shows whats cicrulating and the fear in America. I think a Citi fall-out would solidify it in the publics mind. They are after all to big to fail...
It was compiled by a professional patent searcher.... so she looks for things online as a career... it should be good.....
............
You need to be careful that the cards will be honored
after the holidays. Stores that are planning to close after Christmas are
still selling the cards through the holidays even though the cards will be
worthless January 1. There is no law preventing them from doing this. On the
contrary, it is referred to as bankruptcy Planning). Below is a partial list
of stores that you need to be cautious about.
Ann Taylor- 117 stores nationwide closing
Bombay closing remaining stores
Cache will close all stores
Circuit City (filed Chapter 11)
Dillard's to close some stores
Disney closing 98 stores and will close more after January.
Eddie Bauer to close stores 27 stores and more after January
Ethan Allen closing down 12 stores.
Footlocker closing 140 stores more to close after January
GAP closing 85 stores
Home Depot closing 15 stores 1 in NJ ( New Brunswick )
J. Jill closing all stores (owned by Talbots)
JC Penney closing a number of stores after January
K B Toys closing 356 stores
Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug ,and Catherine's to close 150 stores nationwide
Levitz closing down remaining stores
Linens and Things closing all stores
Loews to close down some stores
Macys to close 9 stores after January
Movie Galley Closing all stores
Pacific Sunwear (also owned by Talbots)
Pep Boys Closing 33 stores
Piercing Pagoda closing all stores
Sharper Image closing down all stores
Sprint/Nextel closing 133 stores
Talbots closing down specialty stores
Whitehall closing all stores
Wickes Furniture closing down
Wilson Leather closing down all stores
Zales closing down 82 stores and 105 after January
On a related note - my shopaholic daughter tells me gift cards are tres gauche this year - the stores all seem to blow up before you can spend them. Cash is way cool though.
dryfly
I got this email from someone who pays no attention to anything regarding the economy. Please note I dont know its validity I only post it because it shows whats cicrulating and the fear in America. I think a Citi fall-out would solidify it in the publics mind. They are after all to big to fail...
It was compiled by a professional patent searcher.... so she looks for things online as a career... it should be good.....
............
You need to be careful that the cards will be honored
after the holidays. Stores that are planning to close after Christmas are
still selling the cards through the holidays even though the cards will be
worthless January 1. There is no law preventing them from doing this. On the
contrary, it is referred to as bankruptcy Planning). Below is a partial list
of stores that you need to be cautious about.
Ann Taylor- 117 stores nationwide closing
Bombay closing remaining stores
Cache will close all stores
Circuit City (filed Chapter 11)
Dillard's to close some stores
Disney closing 98 stores and will close more after January.
Eddie Bauer to close stores 27 stores and more after January
Ethan Allen closing down 12 stores.
Footlocker closing 140 stores more to close after January
GAP closing 85 stores
Home Depot closing 15 stores 1 in NJ ( New Brunswick )
J. Jill closing all stores (owned by Talbots)
JC Penney closing a number of stores after January
K B Toys closing 356 stores
Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug ,and Catherine's to close 150 stores nationwide
Levitz closing down remaining stores
Linens and Things closing all stores
Loews to close down some stores
Macys to close 9 stores after January
Movie Galley Closing all stores
Pacific Sunwear (also owned by Talbots)
Pep Boys Closing 33 stores
Piercing Pagoda closing all stores
Sharper Image closing down all stores
Sprint/Nextel closing 133 stores
Talbots closing down specialty stores
Whitehall closing all stores
Wickes Furniture closing down
Wilson Leather closing down all stores
Zales closing down 82 stores and 105 after January
Byzantine_Ruins writes:
Wow. Feels like the "old days" of 8 weeks ago. Another crisis to resolve by Sunday at 7pm.
Wow. Feels like the "old days" of 8 weeks ago. Another crisis to resolve by Sunday at 7pm.
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