Trapped and Abandoned

By John Batchelor on January 6, 2009 2:28 PM | 4 Comments

The Dog That Does Not Bark.

Ten days into the Gaza War, it is easier to see what is not happening and to tally reasons why

Hamas is losing badly. After the choice Sherlock Holmes story, "Silver Blaze," the dog that is not barking includes the PA, Fatah, President M. Abbas, Spokesperson Saeeb Erakat, the Al Aqsa Brigades on the West Bank and in Gaza, the Arab Israeli members of Knesset, the whole of the West Bank including the radicals in Ramallah and Bethlehem. The list continues as to who is not barking: Cairo, Amman, Beirut, Riyadh, Baghdad, Algiers. The list continues: London, Paris, Berlin, Rome, Brussels, Moscow. Silence is ambiguous, but this begins to look like a willful chorus of silence. That dog that does not bark has a bite to the silence.

Trapped and Abandoned.

Hamas is not the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas is not the Palestinian people in Gaza or in the West Bank. Hamas is a criminal gang, and its members are bought and paid for with Tehran cash and weapons. When Cairo decided to join with Jerusalem and cut the border crossings form Sinai, Hamas was cut off from its supply of cash and weapons and men. No money, no resistance. The gang members we see on the street now in the poorly produced Hamas operas of grief and victimzation are all that is left of the recruit base. And those boys want cash and guns before they will take to fighting the IDF. Hamas is a neighborhood gang with old men in Cairo and

Damascus to boast that they are the leaders of the gang. Gangland rules are that if you aren't paying me, I am not a gang member. Thugs, scaredy-cats, teenagers, sadists, liars, druglords, bullies and fools - that is the entire list of characters in Hamas in the Gaza Strip right now, all whining and begging for cash. No jihad about it. Where are the shahid? Where is a suicide vest? We re not seeing shahid because there is no cash to hire a family to donate its child to mass murder. And also because the IDF does not let a shahid walk in to the firing line. Hamas is trapped in Gaza City, in Khan Younis and Rafak, inside the Gaza Strip. The Hamas gangsters can shoot at the IDF, drop their weapons, pretend to be bystanders, but they cannot run. And today, with evidence that Hamas is trying to talk to Cairo about a new deal, we begin to see that Hamas realizes that it is abandoned by the Arab League. Game over in (n) more days. A possibility is for Cairo to let the Hamas gangsters walk out of Rafak without their weapons, hands up, and into an Egyptian holding area for deportation. Another possibility is that the Hamas gangsters just surrender to the IDF and are deported by the UN. Either way, the Hamas members inside Gaza now are within days or hours of leaving Gaza as impotent criminals.

Rafak

By John Batchelor on January 5, 2009 9:47 PM | 7 Comments

Southern Gaza is the battlefield.

Three KIA and several WIA in a friendly fire reported in the last news cycle. The commander of Golani Brigade Avi Peled was wounded in the same incident in the Sajaiyeh neighborhood of Gaza City. This is the northern part of the strip. The IDF has divided the Strip into three segments. The most critical area is from Khan Yuonis to Rafak (right, an airstrike on Rafak, January 5). Much of it is rolling sand dunes that rise from the beach to a flat sweeping sandy field to the wire. What happens in the Khan Younis to Rafak corridor will determine the fate of the Hamas gang. When the IDF moves in to secure Rakak is the coup de grace. Rafak is a miniature Fallujah, heaps of poured concrete houses pushed close together in a naked landscape of sand and ruins. House to house, like Fallujah. The IDF taught the Americans how to conduct urban warfare against hired, drugged-up, trapped and suicidal jihad. Now it is the teacher's turn.

Diplomacy.

My early information was that the IDF could operate effectively until January 5 and then expect the United Nations Security Council and the Quartet to impose a ceasefire. This has not happened, and why is important to understand. The Arab League is not united about protecting Hamas, and therefore it has not put uniform pressure on the UN. What we may see here is the Saudi regime blocking the Arab League in order to let Iran's puppet Hamas die. Tehran is without options as it cannot reinforce Hamas though the sealed Sinai border. The longer the UN does not move, the more I am persuaded that the Saudis mean to make an example of Hamas to show their post-Bush, post Iraq strength against Tehran. Day Nine and counting. French President N. Sarkozy was in town (Ramallah) briefly to hug PA President M. Abbas of Fatah and (in Jerusalem) to speak well of the IDF and Jerusalem. Note the convergence: Fatah and Israel and the United Nations Security Council Permanent Member France. Abbas is a corrupt, lazy, Holocaust denying fool, but he is the Quartet's and Israel's fool. Hamas is losing.

Dawn Gaza

By John Batchelor on January 4, 2009 1:22 AM | 9 Comments

Early Reports Confirm 2 IDF KIA.

Unconfirmed one additional IDF KIA, for a total of three KIA at this time. Dozens WIA. The wounded are evacuated to a hospital in Beersheba. The early reports are consistent with an armor led strike on the north Gaza. This region is rolling sand dunes. The Mediterranean ocean is less than five kilometers from any point. The towers of Gaza City loom. These dunes are the choice launch sites for the Katyushas north to Ashkelon and Beersheba. There was a report overnight that five more rockets were fired from the north, however they were the crude Qassams.

What Is the IDF Mission?

There are general plans in the open sources however no specific targets. Where are the 220 mm Katyusha rockets? Where is command for the rockets? The IDF must secure the rocket sites not only in the north but also in the south. The south of Gaza from the abandoned Israeli farms to the Rafak border is lightly populated and rolling dunes to the sea. The tunnels from Sinai open in Rafak. From there, it would be straightforward to transfer weapons and rockets the ten kilometers to bunkers in the dead center of the Gaza Strip. Gush Katif. Khan Younis. Is this the mission target? Is this what those IDF 155mm armor units (below) are shooting at?

Europe Confused, UN is Babel.

The presidency of the EU passed to the Czech Republic Juri Potuznik on January 1; and right on time President Potuznik remarked a sensible supporting remark, "At the moment, from the perspective of the last days, we understand this step as a defensive, not offensive, action." The former president of the EU was Nicholas Sarkozy of France, who used his Foreign Ministry to comment most negatively, "France condemns the Israeli ground offensive against Gaza as it condemns the continuation of rocket firing." Confusing? No, it's the EU practicing good cop/bad cop; and all on French TV. Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council listened to a condemnation of Israel authored by Libya. The US is given credit for laughing Libya 's genius out of the chamber. The UN will return to the staircase to Babel today for Monday headlines. I expect to read threats and promises all this evening Sunday 4.

Green Light Gaza: Armor Force Targets Rocket Sites

By John Batchelor on January 3, 2009 2:45 PM | 11 Comments

The Immediate IDF Challenge Is To Secure the Rocket Sites.

Because the Hamas teams have kept their 220mm Katyushas until the eventuality of the ground action, and the Hamas rocket teams will have the shoot order now. Below a photo of a large secondary explosion in the north Gaza, perhaps a weapons cache or more likely a fuel dump. The 220mm Katyusha can reach Dimona and Tel Aviv.

We can expect air raid drills in Tel Aviv if and when Hamas gets off a barrage.

Israeli troops move into Gaza Strip

First ground action of 8-day offensive

Israeli ground forces enter Gaza in escalation

AP - 24 mins ago

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - Israeli tanks and infantry entered Gaza after nightfall Saturday, launching a ground offensive that the military said would be a "lengthy operation" in a widening war on Gaza's Hamas rulers

Israeli Ground Forces Push Into Gaza

Escalation of 8-Day Assault on Hama

The battle plan is for the Golani Brigade and the Para Brigade to clear the wire for the tank spearheads. It is dark another six to seven hours, and the IDF owns the night with night-vision goggles (right) and sites and UAVs. The big Hamas bunkers are likely in the southern Gaza. The same for the video of destroyed buildings and dead civilians. Speaking to my best sources

soon, and we will have several reports from Jerusalem on Sunday 4. Last report was that the IDF is expecting Hamas to launch its longest range rockets. The Israeli Cabinet is reported to have approved an operation to destroy the Hamas military leadership. No update on the Egyptian military blocking at the border. See the first photo below from Haaretz of the IDF armor crossing the wire at dusk. The early reports are of ground fire and Hamas resistance. But mostly Hamas will be on the run into the population centers. The IDF must secure the northern rocket sites.

Hamas Idol

By John Batchelor on January 2, 2009 10:35 PM | 40 Comments

Everything You See From Gaza Is Fiction.

Including the boasts, the chants, the crowds, the burials and the casualty lists. Hamas produces propaganda for the European TV audience and some of it leaks to the American and

Asian media. It is all a fiction. I do not believe the funerals or the corpses. There is no independent reporting from Gaza. The European sources, such as BBC and Reuters, depend upon Hamas film and a Hamas script for their viewers and readers. None of it is real. Hamas repurposes corpses, displays dead babies who have perished by other means, and uses actors for funerals. So much of it is a sham that all of it is a sham. In the last news cycle, the IDF reported the destruction of the house (below) of Hamas thug Nizar Rayan. The IDF declares now that Rayan is KIA along with two of his four wives and seven of his eleven children. Perhaps, then again, perhaps not. The funeral procession was clearly staged for the camera and sound truck. Is Rayan KIA? The IDF says so, but there is no independent source. The same for the video of destroyed buildings and dead civilians. Hamas Idol is a game to fool the credulous. Vote for the day's victim and stage a demo. The winner gets to be reused for the next parade of victims. Futile, aimless, false, repetitive reporting from Gaza has now convinced much of Europe that Gaza and the West Bank are gigantic stage sets. The prancing, chanting, preening, vigorous young men are like Ernst Blofeld's extras from the James Bond set. As long as they are running around making threats into the camera, nothing to worry about. Show biz.

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2009 Crashettes

By John Batchelor on January 1, 2009 11:18 AM | 8 Comments

What Will Go Wrong Is Already In Train.

Speaking Sunday 4 January with my financial professionals re the big crash of 2008 and the fallout of bad policies that will beggar the US and Europe and Asia in the next months and push recovery well into the future. It is easier than ever to see the future, because, as the wag says correctly, the future is already here, it's just not organized. The 2009 crashettes, the nominees:

1. Car Crash.

The Bush Administration decision to write a check to GM and Chrysler with TARP money was weak, pointless and worse -- it won't work. The Obama Administration will now tangle with Detroit and the UAW and lose more money in a bad deal. The bald fact is that the car companies have crashed because Americans have cut back on buying cars. Not just GM and Chrysler but all car companies are now in sharp decline, including the champions Toyota and Honda. It isn't credit, it isn't GMAC, it isn't the UAW. It is the showrooms. They are nearly empty right now. Yes, there will be sales this year, but the last projection number I heard from Lou Ann Hammond, carlist.com, was 11 million (down from 16 million) sales. The consumer has discovered that the vehicle he or she is driving, one year older and twenty thousand miles on, works just fine.

2. Newspaper Crash.

With cars companies in failure, the mainstay of car ads for the newspapers has gone the way of

the classified department. Newspapers in the major cities were already in retreat because of on-line competition and because the young (under 30) do not much read newsprint. The upcoming year will see newspapers converting to on-line aggregators. Printed magazines are going too. And the business models for network TV and cable TV and terrestrial radio are all in immediate danger of sinking with the well-known 1912 unsinkable craft.

3. Retail Crash.

The Westchester, the gigantic mall in White Plains that serves a vast consumer population, was nearly empty the day before Christmas. And this was with the sales already in place, from 40-60% off clothing and all recognizable products except electronics and jewelry. Five days after Christmas, it was half full -- much of the traffic for returns. This year will see malls with empty stores along the promenades as the franchises retreat. I am watching the Apple Store. When and if Steve Jobs agrees to cut Apple product prices -- the Iphone, the Macs -- is when I will be certain that we cannot see the bottom of the retail crash.

4. Luxury Crash.

A fool and a fool's money. It is hipper to burn the cash than spend it on the detritus of the gilded age 2. I do not know the names to list for failure. I peeked into the Tiffany store window at the Westchester the day before Christmas, and saw several customers, more than at Ann Taylor or Brooks Brothers. Do diamonds fail? Unknown. Certainly leathers goods and fashion rags and perhaps even unusually uncomfortable shoes are going the way of office party planners.

5. Partisan Crash.

The GOP remains undead, unburied and unmourned. The Democrats look to be a deaf party walking toward a cliff edge. Mr. Obama is the unpresident as the dollar is the undollar. World government has arrived with a goofy plot to run the money printing presses till we can all swim in cash like Scrooge McDuck. The worldwide credit crash tops all partisanship. If you are ranting about anything, you are about to be fired. If you have already been fired, we can't see you. Lifeboat America, sinking. Who volunteers to go overboard? And there is only food and water for n% of us. Cheers.

Tunnel Rats

By John Batchelor on December 31, 2008 9:24 PM | 4 Comments

The IDF Targets the Hamas Ratlines.

What brought us to this present chaos in Gaza and Sinai was the Israeli decision under Ariel Sharon unilaterally to withdraw the Israeli farmers from Gaza in 2005 and turn over the whole

of the southern Gaza to Hamas. Aaron Klein and I reported live on air from Sderot right outside Gaza, from Gush Katif inside Gaza, and from Ashkelon north of Gaza in August 2005 as the farmers were about to be dishomed. It was clear at the time that once the IDF was out of Gaza that the gangsters were going to create an armed camp and, using tunnel rats, bring in the weapons and ordnance needed to remake Gaza into a battleground. When the IDF evacuated that fall, it dismantled the defenses along the Philadelphi route (above from before 2006) that marked the no man's land on the border with Sinai, dividing Rafak in Gaza from Rafak in Sinai. Rafak (the gray ruins above) was Stalingrad lite in those days, and it has not changed. Since then, Hamas has increased and made deeper the number of tunnels from Sinai to Gaza (below). Egypt has not stopped the smuggling traffic. The Quartet abandoned policing the border in 2006. In sum, what the IDF is attacking now in Gaza is entirely a result of bad decisions made by Israel, Egypt, the Quartet, the United States. Gaza was abandoned to the creatures to build a rogue state in miniature. Tehran pushed its agents, money and weapons into the rogue to build an island redoubt on Israel's flank that also threatens Cairo. There were many, many who said in 2005 that unilateral withdrawal from Gaza would lead to worse days ahead. Since then, we have watched the Hizballah War with Tehran weapons and ops in the summer of 2006, which started as an action in Gaza to recover the abducted soldier Gilead Shalit, and we have watched the IAF attack on the still unexplained nuke sites in eastern Syria built by Tehran money and ops. And now the Hamas War with Tehran weapons and ops. Concession, balance, appeasement, withdrawal, compromise, retreat are not sane policies when facing an enemy that is determined to dominate Israel and the region. The near future? Tehran is quiet. Too quiet? Bush is quiet? Too quiet? Obama is a mystery. The IDF deploys in the open. Will it cross the fence?

Jerusalem is Debating Ceasefire Again

By John Batchelor on December 30, 2008 10:34 PM | 6 Comments

Destroying the Smuggler Tunnels from Sinai is Working.

Hamas is badly wounded and scurrying for cover in underground bunkers beneath population

centers. Hamas hides its rockets, weapons, ammunition and equipment underneath and in mosques, schools, hospitals and civilian housing. The IDF cannot destroy all the ordnance from the air. However the IDF can cut off the resupply of rockets, which is the only offensive threat. Cut the tunnels, target the launch sites when possible, destroy the Hamas buildings, and reduce the options for Hamas strikes. Also, the IDF is committed to targetted assassinations of Hamas leadership, what is called decapitation, and so far this is working to disorient the cadres. However short of the ground action, the destruction of the tunnels is the most effective tactic. It will take time. Aaron Klein reported to me on Sunday 28 that 40 of 600 tunnels were taken out with penetrators in the first day. Malcolm Hoenlein reported to me (30 December) that 40 more tunnels were taken out. A big air strike on the tunnels was announced late in the evening in Israel. First light in another hour in Gaza. Look for strikes along the Rafak line in the south of Gaza.

What About the Egyptian Army?

Meanwhile the report in the last seven hours was the the Egyptian Army is on alert, leaves canceled, ready to mobilize. Cairo has declared that it will only turn the Gaza crossings into Sinai over to the PA, not Hamas. This means that the border is sealed, if it is accurate information. The targeted Hamas leaders cannot flee with their weapons, though they can get out as civilians, or wounded, or dressed as women, all tactics used routinely in Hamas. News now is that the Israeli Cabinet is debating a unilateral ceasefire as recommended by Bernard Kouchner of Paris. Rejected this morning. Watching to see if it is revived.

GAZA CEASEFIRE REJECTED

By John Batchelor on December 30, 2008 12:10 PM | 9 Comments

IDF Air Operations Continue Successfully.

Best open source from Jerusalem is that the IDF earlier today signed onto a proposal to offer the Hamas gangsters a forty-eight hour ceasefire to test the credibility of Hamas to stop the rockets and to guarantee no more rockets. This was a unilateral offer, though the Haaretz account made mention of a telephone negotiation initiative by French Foreign Minister and peace-activist Bernard Kouchner. The forty-eight hours did not have a start date. The information right now is that the proposal to Hamas has been rejected. No ceasefire.

Massive Air Strikes Going Out.

The information now is that the IDF believes it will have room to continue its target list until at least Monday January 5. The United Nations Security Council and the Arab League are dithering to some purpose, because the longer these two august and noisy microphone posses can avoid demanding or imposing a ceasefire on Israel the longer the IDF has to work. Best information from Jerusalem government source is that the Arab League is dominated by states that want Hamas degraded and sidelined in favor of the recognizably corrupt and foolish PA President M. Abbas of the Fatah. The important sum is that the Arab League will not get in front of the IDF assaults. The UN will not act out on TV until at least next week. The Quartet is strikingly quiet. Kouchner of Paris, joined by his hyper active boss President N. Sarkozy, is the agreed upon only game for Hamas to try. The IDF offer was predicated on the threat that if the ceasefire is not accepted, if the ceasefire idea fails, then ground action is next. The IDF operation has been planned for more than a year. It will not look like the tank battle of Kursk. Raids in force and cutting Gaza into pieces is more likely. With the Hamas rejection, ground action is very credible.

Why was the Ceasefire offered?

The IDF has specific confirmation, according to my best and absolutely accurate source Aaron Klein, WND, that Hamas has Chinese/Iran made rockets that can reach Tel Aviv. Those rockets are a major strategic threat. The IDF must move before they can be fired. It is imaginable, though not confirmed, that the IDF was offering the ceasefire because it has information that Hamas is moving to deploy and use the long-range rockets. Also, Hamas is badly damaged. There is reason to believe Hamas is in a panic. The best information twelve hours ago was that the Israeli Cabinet has made the decision that the IDF is to destroy Hamas's military capabilities. Every building, every weapons cache, every bunker and tunnel are on the target list. Also, military leaders are on the target list. The IDF is said to be going for the kill. To this end, Egypt is now openly cooperating with the IDF plans. Egypt President H. Mubarak has now announced that Egypt will not reopen the Gaza border crossings until and if the PA (Fatah) take control of the checkpoints. This is impossible in the present regime in GAza. It means that Hamas would have been destroyed. It is a warning to Hamas that the Egyptian Army may soon get involved on the border. Repeat, the Egyptian Army may soon get involved. No mobilization yet, but Aaron Klein reports that all Egyptian Army leaves are cancelled. On standby. Hamas can see the hammer and forge, the IDF and the Egyptian Army. Hamas flight is not possible if the Egyptians close and defend the border. And standing and fighting IDF ground action is not rational, especially since the air strikes are now decapitating the Hamas military structure.

Strategy Corner:

There is one wild card. Tehran. Too quiet. Watching Tehran. Does Tehran surrogate Hizballah try rocketing from the north. Does Tehran surrogate Damascus try provocations along the Golan? Both unlikley. Does Tehran sit on its hands and watch Hamas and billions of dollars of equipment, and not a few IRGC agents in Gaza, destroyed and removed from the field and Gaza returned to the pro-Saudi hands of Abbas and Fatah? Take Gaza and Hamas from the gameboard, Tehran's plan to surround, isolate and remove Israel falls back about three years. Phone calls flying in all directions now. And if those long-range rockets fly, the IDF moves swiftly. What do you think?

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Hamas Endorsers

By John Batchelor on December 29, 2008 11:40 PM | 4 Comments

Ahmed Yousef of Hamas Twice Endorsed Barack Obama.

Spoke Sunday 28 more than once with my colleague Aaron Klein, WND and my show, in Jerusalem re the IDF battle plan to degrade and delimit the Hamas military capabilities in the Gaza Strip. Operational details dominated our conversations, however there was time to ask and note that Hamas Chief Political Adviser Ahmed Yousef's mobile phone was back on, after being switched off more than thirty hours since the air strikes started; and that once, and then again later in the day, Aaron was able to get through. Ahmed Yousef (left) asked Aaron to call him back, he was too busy to speak. The air raids have continued and as of yet I do not have a report from Aaron that he has spoken with Ahmed Yousef in a significant fashion. You will recall that Aaron and I not only spoke with but also interviewed Ahmed Yousef twice this past year, in April and again in October, with regard the presidential contest. The first instance, Ahmed Yousef candidly praised Candidate Barack Obama during the primary race with Candidate Mrs. Clinton. And there was not a little noise about his statements, well over a thousand news reports of our straight forward eight minute recorded conversation, much chagrin and hissing by the Obama supporters, some small puffing by the John McCain supporters, and then quiet. The second time in October, Ahmed Yousef said he and political leadership looked forward to mutually beneficial conversations and visit with a new Obama administration (or a McCain administration in theat event, though the McCain mention was manners). We aired both conversations in the NYC/DC/SF show. At the same time, Aaron and I pursued the plentiful evidence and repeated clues that the Obama team was maintaining a direct line with Hamas via cutouts. No need to detail here, it is all water under the bridge, except that the same officials whom the Obama team were contacting discreetly (never admitted to) during the campaign are now in place in the bunkers under assault by the IDF. The same people who twice endorsed Barack Obama are now taking hit after hit from the strikes as they order rocket after rocket fired at Israel. The Israeli Cabinet is fully aware of this twist. Defense Minister Ehud Barak (below), and ex-PM and ex-general, went out of his way today in media remarks to include Barack Obama's opinion of the Hamas rocketeers:

Barak also cited a comment made by U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, who visited Sderot during his election campaign earlier this year.

"Obama said that if rockets were being fired at his home while his two daughters were sleeping, he would do everything he could to prevent it," Barack told the plenum.

Meanwhile the Obama team announces that President-Elect Barack Obama is being kept up to date on the Gaza action by intelligence briefings and will momentarily confer with his national security team, chiefly NSA and ex-Marine commandant Jim Jones. I asked Aaron more than once if there is any indication that Ahmed Yousef has attempted to contact PEBO or his team to ask for conversation or help. Aaron does not have this information. Yet. If there has been communication from Hamas to the Obama team via the same cutouts as last Spring (during the choreographed Jimmy Carter visit) or this past summer and fall via other cutouts (Z. Brzezinski's name was mentioned), we do not have a confirm. The IDF does have access to such information. All mobile traffic and internet traffic going out of Gaza is transparent. We watch and wait and listen for the endorsers to speak again. Will they restate their praise of Mr. Obama?

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