Electronic Monitors of Gaza Arms Smuggling. 
The centerpiece of debate the last weeks of the Gaza fighting was that the IDF aimed to cut the tunnels and smuggling supply conduits between Sinai and Gaza in order to rid Gaza of the weapons and rockets that give Hamas power. The MOU signed by Jerusalem and
Washington on Friday 16 is said to prove for US back security of the Gaza border, with the aid of Quartet and Egyptian authorities. Prime Minister Olmert's claim that the IDF had achieved its goals was based upon the MOU promises. That was then. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak now declares that there is no arms smuggling across the Sina and into Gaza. Mubarak tells the EU that the arms come form Lebanon. That there is no need to patrol or secure the border. Best signals source says that, at this remark, the EU ministers sat quiet and unfazed at the magnitude of the falsehood. The only way to change the smuggling of arms and rockets into Gaza is to change the padlocks on the Egyptian military warehouses at Al Arish (right), the Hamas stronghold on the Sinai side of the border. The Mubarak regime receives a cut of the smuggling fees each time a convoy comes in from the Sinai and goes out to Gaza. The arms come from Iran via the Port of Sudan and then up the Red Sea on coastal freighters to Sinai ports, where the cargo is off-loaded and transported across Sinai by the tribals to Al-Arish. It is a business. The big stuff that cannot go through the tunnels is on-loaded to fishing boats at Al Alrish that set sail for the port of Gaza along the shallow coastal shelf. The IDF cannot interdict the boats without coming in very close with zodiacs, and cannot hope to search the fishing fleet. It is an unbreakable chai of supplies unless Egypt were to change the padlocks.
What Does Muabark Want?
Hosni Mubarak wants his son Jamaal Mubarak to succeed him, and he has made the deal with the jihadists -- chiefly the Moslem Brothers and their kin Hama (Ikhwan) that Jamaal will
let them operate to liberate Palestine, and they will let Jamaal pretend to rule. Jamaal was sent personally to negotiate with Hamas at Al Arish during the Gaza fighting. Why does Mubarak make this deal. The story is told that once upon a time, Mubarak was at his palace, enjoying the desert breezes, when he spied a million lights coming along in the distance. He called to the intelligence chief and secret policeman Omar Suleiman (right with Ehud Barak) and asked, "Omar, whar are those lights?" Omar Suleiman replied, "Mr. President, those are your people coming to liberate Palestine from the Crusaders and Jews." Mubarak said, in surprise, what shall we do?" Omar Suleiman answered, "You have a choice. They can liberate Palestine by marching around your palace while saluting you, or -- they can liberate Palestine by marching over your palace. What is your command, Mr. President?"
What he gets is: Likud leads in polls.
It's maelstrom of raw hatred over there. Everyone wants to "liberate" Palestine and drive the Jews into the sea. Anyone not with the program is bound to get steamrolled. That's why all these Middle Eastern (so-called) governments are so tepid in their support of normal, civilized behavior. Civilized behavior can only get them so far: international standing and goodies from the West; too much civilized behavior is certain to get them killed by their own.
Lawrence related the incompatability of Bedou and "civilized behavior."
Strings can be and sometimes are, very long
Si vis pacem, para bellum!
Anyone not with the program is bound to get steamrolled.
Machiavelli - in the battle between fear and greed, fear always triumphs. Reason only has a chance when fear and greed are not present. This explains why reason cannot prevail.
And most everyone knows (except, apparently, for a few) that the factions aligned against Israel will never stand down. Escalation, rhetorical or otherwise, is the snake in the grass of the yard and the means by which they maintain the uneasiness of Israel who always have to be watchful.
Eventually, the restless grow tired of worrying and they mow the grass hoping to catch the snake in the blades. Unfortunately, the snake slithers away when sensing the disturbances of the machine coming near.
The thing about snakes is, being cold blooded, they occasionally like to get out into the sun and warm themselves. Instinct also dictates, they gather together in dens to await a warm sun.
When is it best to contend with the vipers? It is told that in Texas they have rattlesnake roundups where they go and find the dens, just before the snakes emerge for the spring, and coax them out with noxious fumes sprayed into the dens. This is not catch and release. This is extract their venom for the processing of anti-venom and then take whatever else is deemed useful. The skins, the meat, and the rattlers.
People say it tastes just like chicken.
The IDF seems to be a victim of a successful model. From 1948 to 1982, they fought Arab national armies with consistent success.
From the first Infatada in 1987 to today they have been engaged in a LIC/Small Wars scenario with various Palestinian groups. The IDF does not seem able to cope with wars with non-national actors.
The fact that counter fire efforts failed in 2006 and 2008 is very troubling.
John, there were reports Weds. that Obama called Mubarak. What's the G2 on what they discussed?
President Obama is working from a script that he did not write. The script is State. State pretends that Egypt is an ally. Egypt pretends that it is coherent and at the center of Arab culture. The truth is that Egypt is an island between the Maghreb and Israel. Cairo to Alexandria is a posse of elitists that is lost. Zawahiri is from this posse. Obama's remarks to Mubarak are immaterial, since Mubarak has made the Faustian deal with the Moslem Brothers. Share power with Jamaal Mubarak, the successor. All the money the US gives Egypt goes to the Friends of Jamaal Fund. The Obama team continues the farce.