The Human Folly of Wall Street.
Lehman Brothers.
The New York Fed, according to my notes, held emergency meetings and conference calls the week before the Lehman failure on September 14/15, 2008. The meeting was not secret; but then again it was not public. Word of the meeting and its cause -- Lehman was in trouble because of a bank run and ungainly risks and needed a rescue like the Fed backed Morgan buy out of Bear, Sterns the March before -- darted out of the New York Fed via the perfect gossip tool, email. That same weekend, John Thain engineered a buy-out of Merrill by Ken Lewis and Bank of America. (We know now that the Fed and Ben Bernanke lobbied for the purchase at what came to be a plush, silly price.) At the New York Fed, the big bankers in New York, a posse that included Goldman, Morgan, Stanley, and JP Morgan (right, gathered together in Congress in Spring '09 to rationalize and growl), all yelled out "What about AIG?" to no certain answer form Tim Geithner and his gang. I am short-handing all this from several conversations with book writers, but I do believe I have the general picture correct. Next week I will talk with David Wessel, whose new book, "In Fed We Trust," goes over this same ground from a Bernanke watching point of view. My summary observation at this time is, Doesn't this all describe a bank run, with the markets wrecked by the wisdom of crowds turning into the folly of crowds? And why not consider the gang of Morgan, Goldman, Lehman, Merrill, Bank of America, Citi, as a crowd that can panic in a bank run? Add Geithner and Bernanke, or just their enterprises?
September 2008.
It was the buyer's time. The markets worldwide started cliff-diving. Not because of earnings or a bomb, but because of the fever of a bank run, many bank runs, one collective bank run -- the Grandmother Of Runs. The glass boxes built to be broken only in case of emergency were the ones they knew to break in case of emergency. Having broken the glass, the panic was self-justifying. Keeping your head while others run is impossible. The only smart people were already dead. Does the Bank of Titanic sink every time because we all think it is sinking? Lehman triggered the panic. But the men who panicked are still with us, still in charge of the Bank of Titanic, absent a few cranks and blame-shifters such as Thain and Paulson.
Obama 2008.
I mention that also in this general question about the folly of crowds, the electorate turned from the old and comfortable hand to a completely unknown hand who did not show panic. Why did candidate Obama not show panic? Because he was outside? Because he is cool? Or for the same reason Tim Geithner is now Secretary of the Treasury despite the fact that he emceed the panic confab at the New York Fed in September? When in doubt, pick the young guy who messed up over the old guy who messed up. Longer time to get it right, and maybe he will learn from his mistake? Maybe not, but we can blame him while obeying him? Puzzle: Was it a panic because of mistakes, or was it a panic because it was a panic? I am calling into question, no conclusions possible in this decade and perhaps the next four, if the crash last fall was not a product of greed, avarice, Bernie Madoff, the climate, but rather was no product at all. It was foolishness. Gone in an instant of panic. No memory. Will certainly happen again. The same way August 1914, October 1929, December 1941, June 1950, November 1963, August 1968, October 1987, August 1990, September 1998, September 2001, and more (inviting game), all happened. Folly. Regret. Folly.

Still unanswered is the question of who pulled the trigger (on the panic of September 2008). No doubt the cannons were already in in place, ready and loaded (to panic the birds on the runway). Who pulled the trigger?
Also, could the opposite be also true? Confidence. Is it possible to 'panic' a population into feeling confident. Obama has been running around saying that the recession is over. Will that be enough to instill confidence in his leadership?
We were perhaps overly confident with Bush. We felt we could trash him without consequence. Now nobody dares trash, indicating some measure of fragility.
Why has everything that occurs in the world turned into some kind of conspiracy? Peter wonders who pulled the trigger? It's the Lone Ranger, who else?
It's because people can't think for themselves and taking someone elses point of view is the easy way out.
Just hearken back to WMD when everyone that had a pulse believed there were secretive weapons programs in Iraq that were dedicated to developing them. As it turned out, most everyone's intell was wrong due to a ruse propaganda system Saddam had in place to keep the dags at bay.
Next thing you know, it was a conspiracy by the Bush Administration to manufacture a reason to take the regime down. Even the ones who agreed that the intell was beyond dispute came to change their position for cover. This is senseless.
Conspiracy about everything imaginable is just laziness to avoid finding out the truth and it plays into some peoples desire of a certain result.
Spencer has a point. It appears to me that all the ingredients of the crisis were in plain sight. They were simply ignored. Why? Because it profited many persons to ignore them, as long as the Ponzi scheme was still functional. Really, it started with fraud in the mortgage market, compounded with leverage and derivatives, based on what looks like abject stupidity and/or fraud by the ratings agencies.
No conspiracy. Simply the natural result of not prosecuting fraud (and setting regulatory barrers against it) when it becomes apparent. The Fed had the ability to regulate many things, but did not use those tools. They also primed the pump with cheap money to facilitate not only the recklessness, but the fraud as well.
And yet the people who allowed this to transpire are still, as JB puts it, at the wheel of the Titanic. Why? Now there's a question that might lead to conspiratorial-sounding conclusions. Why put the Exxon Valdez captain in charge of another tanker? That aspect of this story is the least understandable.
The failure of being able to entertain conspiracy theories or, at the very least, establish intent, is reflective of an unwillingness to connect the dots. Beyond this, it demonstrates a reluctance to ask 'why'. 'Why', if used properly, remains a useful tool in attempting to reconcile differences and paradox. It invariably opens up a higher dimension; one, in which it then becomes possible to explain what appears to be a series of seemingly incongruous events. Why, for example, does the Left consistently oppose any strengthening of our energy infrastructure while at the same time decrying the high cost of energy and the foreign entanglements that result? The answer becomes obvious when you ask 'why.' You are now forced to confront the possibility that it's neither about energy nor foreign policy. It's all about curbing America's bite; America's influence which it regards as somehow threatening, polluting and evil. Why is the Left so adamant in its opposition to religion while at the same time promoting its own religion, Marxism, with a fervor that puts Islamists to shame? It’s because it’s not about religion; it’s about power. Why does the Left seek to curb the power of the U.S. while at the same time amassing power for itself? It’s because to the Left the U.S. means nothing. The Left’s vision is global. It can well afford to sacrifice one country (or a couple) to achieve its goal of global justice (as they would put it in press releases) which actually translates into nothing less theatrical than global dominance.
Spence, if you should happen to read this, I do understand your skepticism. No one wants to believe that there’s an elephant in the room dirtying up the place and smashing things; most would find it disgusting to see the emperor naked. There’s still such overwhelming confidence in America throughout the world. Even our enemies have come to find comfort in knowing that America will always be there to blame things on.
(I hadn’t intended to run on like this.) There is now enough evidence that Obama doesn’t like America and the Americans who elected him. Everything he does (now without opposition) must be seen through this lens. Otherwise specter of sheer incompetence darkens the landscape in the form of a cloud of black swans for which any explanation trails off into meaningless stammering.
Trading with the federal reserve
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e84383dc-7f8c-11de-85dc-00144feabdc0.html
I have been diligent in monitoring discussions on the "Why?" of the market crash, and the initial efforts were mostly technical: mortgages, derivatives, interest rates, etc., none of which explained much. The world's biggest economy does not just fall down one sunshiney day. Consequently, I welcome a discussion of the role of human factors in the biggest economic crunch of our time. Some context is required to understand what happened.
If you spend money foolishly or make a bad investment, the result is the same; you are out $X. If you borrow money and spend it foolishly or make a bad investment with it, you are in much worse shape; not only do you have nothing to show for it, now you owe $X and your future financial activity is constrained.
LBJ's War on Poverty cost $6.6 trillion over a thirty-year period. Poverty barely moved, and certainly was not defeated. The WoP was terminated in a morass of waste, fraud, corruption, and sleaze. Not only did $X = $6.6 trillion, but the money went to the national accounts and from there to the national debt on which interest is paid. A modest 3% interest rate on the national debt during the years since the WoP was implemented shows that the WoP accounts for more than the entire national debt just two short years ago. Just as the mortgage follies were kicking into high gear, in fact. A $9 trillion dollar debt in 2007 was manageable in a rising economy, but it severely constrained our freedom of productive actions in a crunch.
The big surprises of the 2008 crunch was how little it was anticipated, and that there were remarkably few prior indicators. The economy was doing quite well except for mortgages and Detroit autos. The DOW P/E ratio was a benign 22 at the peak in late 2007. (In comparison, the DOW P/E ratio was a nosebleed 45 and the NASDAQ was an astronomical 65 when they started down in Clinton's last year, numbers that virtually guaranteed a crash, and the crash came.) The NASDAQ lost $2.5 trillion, half it's value, in the year before Clinton left office, and the DOW and S&P soon lost trillion more, but the economy recoverd rapidly. In contrast, the total mortgage losses recently are still under $1 trillion; a large action in 2000 triggered a small reaction, but a small action in 2008 triggered a huge worldwide reaction. Why? That is the whole question.
The fall of the markets coincided quite closely with the rise of Obama's prospects in the presidential race. Obama was widely perceive as a Marxist, a fact that meant little to young people, his strongest demographic, and was seen as a positive by leftist professors, financiers (Soros, Buffett), the media (Evan Thomas, Chris Matthews), and media stars (Oprah, Barbara).
Obama had an entirely different meaning for investors, a generally conservative lot, who were interested in protecting their assets. The better Obama did in the campaign, the faster the markets fell; there were major market drops when Obama secured the nomination, when he was nominated, when he was elected, and when he was inaugurated. Investors do not willingly leave thier assets exposed, certainly not to a known hazard such as Marxist ineffficiency and corruption.
And here we are. The Obama Administration dispatched it's talking heads to reassure everyone that the recovery is on the way (Larry Summers on Meet the Press yesterday, July 2, for example) but this is almost certainly a waste of hot air. The main argument for the end of the recession seems to be that recessions always come to an end. But that is not true, of course.
The Great Depression was extended for eleven long, miserable, heart-sick years by faulty government policy. The Japanese recession that began in 1991 was ended eighteen years later by the the recent markets meltdown, when the recession became a full-blown depression.
Governmental policies determine the outcome of recessions. Booms that precede recessions generate excesses in the economy. Recessions sooner or later are ended when excesses are squeezed out of the economy. Obama is furiously adding excesses to the economy: stimuli, energy restrictions, health care. Obama is ignoring all restraints, and is heading toward a command economy not unlike that of the Soviet Union where all production and prices were mandated by bureaucrats, and the government takes direct control of major portions of the economy, and of peoples' lives. ("Soviet" literally means committee, the bureaucrats' milieu.)
Every crisis in recent American history has been initiated by Democrats: Vietnam, the Carter recession that followed seventeen years of economic stagnation after LBJ's Great Society/War on Poverty, the NASDAQ Bubba Bubble, the Mortgage Follies, and now the worldwide markets crash. Republicans clean up the Democratic messes, and the Democrats then promise to spend more money to buy more votes. Even for a productive nation like the USA, there will be an end point to this process, and it looks very much like the end point will be similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union, or at least the stagnation of Europe and Japan.
It sure is curious how the whole worlds financial markets and governments are combating the crunch trouble.
I read about a stimulus here and stimulus there; here a stimulus; there a stimulus... everywhere a stimulus
Old Karl Marx he had a farm, IOU WEE OWE
You just validated my point. I won't go down the list, but, in general, the answers to your "WHYS" are more complex than just a simple "THE INTENT OF THE LEFT IS TO TAKE OVER THE WORLD"
It's a perception thing... not a denial. Conspiracy theorists are the ones who deny the facts.
I think the PotUS is all right with America. He certainly speaks to Her greatness and indomitable spirit.
I think you have it exactly right!
Your closing query is answerable as well. Reverse engineering? What scoundrel knows better than one who participated in the process?
Sorta like, well, Von Braun developing the mechanism that birthed space exploration and eventually put Americans on the moon and provided the means to accomplish all that has followed and will follow...
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