Proxy Feud.
Reuters summary of the Senate vote, 60 affirmatives to move the healthcare reform bill to debate after Thanksgiving, makes the activities on the floor of the Senate appear as stately, measured, sagacious as if the European Union was debating what to tax the Russia to Europe natural gas pipeline users for the next three thousand years. The affairs of great states. The deliberations of sovereigns. In comparison, the TV Sunday show clips (above and below) demonstrate that the Senate consists of schoolmasterish/schoolmistressish burghers from semi-tough big cities who squabble over table settings while carrying on with the solemnity of a church elder. Do the Euros see us as we are or as they believe we should be? We see ourselves as bottomlessly contentious and mercifully not too smart. Is the debate in the Senate about healthcare reform? Nah. It is a proxy feud between the parties as they prepare their scripts for the 2010 mid-terms.
Democratic Script.
Majority rules are the way to get things done and to repair the damage done by the villainous George Bush and his Quasimodo Prime Minister Cheney, that is the Dem script for 2010, standing shoudler to shoulder with a youthful, charming, zealous POTUS who extends a handshake and a smile to all sovereigns without favor. Perhaps unusually so to our adversaries of the past. The domestic succeses include a rescue for the economy, the right choices between taxes and growth, and a sweeping and generational change in how healthcare is delivered and paid for by the average American family. Afghanistan? Bush's problem is better with allies and a new and invogorated leadership in Kabul. Iran? Diplomacy works. China? A trading partner and a close ally in the growth of markets in the new century. The reason to vote for your Democratic candidate in the House is to return Mrs. Pelosi's leadership to the work of reforming the damage done by a dozen years of Republican rule.
Republican Script.
Joblessness at 10% or higher for the balance of a year; housing starts and housing purchases cliff-diving despite the Treasury hand-out to buyers; inflation implicit in the asset bubble of commodites; the price of gold an inverse to the confidence and prospect of the American economy; the dollar printing presses running at high speed; the Treasury Secretary deeply involved in the AIG/Goldman payoff of November 2008; the chair of the Federal Reserve unable or unwilling to introduce proportionate reforms for the banks; the government larded with the stimulus package; zombie banks and their lesser pistoles permitted to borrow at 0% and gamble on the asset bubble while lending like Scrooge and escaping all known credible supervision. Then there is the inability of Mrs. Pelosi in the House and Harry Reid in the Senate to work with or even exchange e-mails with the other side of the aisle on the simplest of tasks, such as a debate on a trillion dollar stimulus package, or a trillion dollar healthcare package, or a trillion dollar cap and trade package.
At Thanksgiving, Same As It Ever Was, Look Ahead
The Republicans enjoyed Executive and Legislative majority rule rarely in the 20th century, and the results were deeply foreboding or dire, such as the 1907 Panic, or the 1929 crash, or the Iraq war. The Democrats enjoyed the same with sluggish to damning results, such as the First War, the Great Depression after the bank failures of 1933; the Second War, the Korean War, the Vietnam War. Divided government has long been the best scenario to confront the surprises of foreign policy and domestic lunacy. It reminds of the Churchill remark about democracy, the best of a bad museums of governance. Is there a good prospect for divided government for the 112th Congress in a year's time. Negative. Long shot. The the healthcare reform debate. What can the Democrats pass aggressively that won't make the House tip GOP? A game of brinksmanship. Advantage Democratic script just now.
The debate may not really be about health reform, but if they pass something and Obama signs it it will really become law. To me the visual is Frodo and Smeagol fighting for the One Ring at the brink of Mount Doom. That's real lava down there, John.
Pelosi & Co. are participating in Ai-Uchi. They are willing to pass bills that spell their immediate doom as they know the laws will never be repealed. So in the short run, they lose their jobs. In the long run, socialism is here to stay and once people be come accustomed, they will be back in power. Since when has any congress ever repealed the likes of the 16th amendment, SS, the great society reforms, or even the GCA of 1968? It's never happened, and the dems know this. That is why they will be kamikazes about this. It's perfect Ai-Uchi.
If there are only Republicans and Democrats to vote for by the time the next election comes around there will be a major uprising in this country. Both the Democrat and Republican scripts are so pathetic, neither would motivate anyone to go to the polls.
America is ready for a third party. This could take the form of an outsider galvanizing one of the existing parties to become in effect a third party - a scenario under which one of the existing parties would simply fade away (we have seen this with the election of Barrack Hussein Obama when the Democrat Party effectively ceased to be, to become the Socialist Party of America) - or a third party that admits to it outright and would run against both Republicans and Democrats, treating both as complicit with regard to the crimes foisted upon the American people and their Constitution. I would venture that under either scenario the third party would win easily.
Key to the process is the man or woman who would lead the third party to power. No current political figure with party credentials will have a snowball's chance in hell of getting elected president in 2012. This leaves out all of the names we hear currently being bandied about. Our next president will come to us out of the blue. Like Obama, he will catch us off our guard. But unlike Obama, the problems he will face will be real; not imagined, or fabricated by two-dimensional TV images produced and directed by George Soros’ photo shop section.
http://peterkoelliker.blogspot.com/
More immediate problem than the U.S. falling to the Fabian Socialists! KFI in Los Angeles discontinued the John Batchelor Show as of last Sunday. I sent them an e-mail saying that their decision has resulted in my discontinuing KFI. As usual I managed to express my feelings without expletives or direct threats of violence ... aren't you all proud of me?
Think you guys are both way off base with the above comments. I'm not expecting any miracles but I am expecting some changes for the better, at least, before the darned thing gets signed into law. WRT Peter's comments, (and JB's beliefs in general), I really don't see what more one could ask of the Republicans' efforts to derail this thing. They've made it clear what they stand for, they've stood united, they haven't wavered, and they stand for exactly what I want a conservative party to stand for. They've done everything except succeed, so I will give them a grade of 95 with 5 points of "extra credit" held back if they succeed in killing the public option somehow.
You know the thing that stood out the most in listening to both the House and Senate debates? The frequency with which they mentioned the fact that they were working on a Saturday. BFD!! And that they might have to have their Thanksgiving break interrupted if they didn't complete their task! Again, BFD! See how out of touch they are with mainstream America. Awwww, da poor lil Senators are going to bust a blood vessel if dey keep working so hard.... Senators working on a Saturday! There oughtta be a law ... Wait a minute ... if we pass a law to make it illegal to work on Saturday we'll have to work on Sunday to do it... nevermind.
They make me want to have a liquid laugh. I had one stretch when my business was booming last Spring when I worked 40 days (including Sa and Su) 12 hour days, without a day off, took one Sunday off, then worked another 40 straight 12 hour days. And I would have made them 15-16 hour days except my dear wife was feeling neglected. And then the poor little Senators have to work on a Saturday ... in order to kill my successful business. A pox on their houses, and all their progeny.
JB's show was also shortened. It's from 9-1 on Sunday. It used to be from 6pm. I guess he's getting cut back everywhere.
Peter--I have a somewhat different take. First, I think an actual third part, although it may be "created", will fail miserably. As has been the case, that will effectively elect Dem's.
Several scenarios cross my mind:
1. a third party or teaparty trend might ruin in progress and actually regress the GOP's candidates by splitting the vote. the immed. effects will be unfortunate (ie, more lib's) but that may crumble the current regime of the GOP and force it to recreate itself.
2. GOP will do the same old crap, run anther automaton/mumbler for president (Mitt Romney seems to fit the bill) and fail to turn out the alienated teaparty crowd who in the past were probably reliable GOP voters (in general). Another Dem landslide.
3. Barakorama and company will overstep, may have already. they will alienate the independent/moderate swath of voters and get them worried and angry (some of that has started). I fear this will/may not turn the '10 presidential election. But continued 18% unemployment, no growth "recovery" and collapsed dollar could turn the trick. But the competition may come from within the Dem party as likely as the GOP. (Kennedy vs Carter). I still don't think Hillary has come to terms with last year.
(It would be great entertainment to have an election between HIllary and Sara.) Catfight!
The GOP is really MIA. They did not produce even a facade of an alternative to health care reform. The 230 silliness was just that. There are serious approaches to reform that avoid socializing medicine, demoralizing doctors, bankrupting the country. (www. ncpa.org). But the GOP offered nothing. WTF?? Is anyone awake in there? Not that the alternative had any chance of success; but a concerted effort to advertise that the GOP has one would have caused some pause. Right now atypical dumb voter just sees this as variations on a (socialist) theme. If the abortion issue fractures the Dem collation, great. But as an issue it is a drop in the ocean.
My guess is most medicare recipients and "incipients" don't give a crumb about that.
We have a rather wide gulf in how we perceive the GOP's recent actions. Maybe I'm missing something. When you say that they didn't provide any reasonable alternatives, that's an exact talking point from the Dems' debate sheet. But they did provide reasonable alternatives, and continue to suggest them. Olympia Snowe worked hard on the Finance Committee to get a more-or-less centrist bill passed.
Jim, you tell me. You are, say, Senator Pat Roberts. You've done everything you can to kill this turkey but it gobbles onward. You come back from Thanksgiving break. You're going to be the type of GOP Senator that will make your constituents want to reelect you. Please tell me, Jim, exactly what Pat Roberts tries that he hasn't already tried? Look at the numbers - 60 to 40. Unless you find a way to either make the Dems listen, or find a way to stop the 60 vote railroad, what chance do you have? You're expecting the impossible.
I continue to think they've done marvelously to foul up the works even this badly. This train is already 3+ months behind schedule or more. And it has no guarantee of passing in its present form. Barring a modern-day Guy Fawkes, what do you suggest?
Jim – You’re looking at it the old way when a third party would indeed have split the Republican vote – and the Dems would run away with it. However, with Obama’s election, things have changed considerably. You can pretty much throw all you know about American election politics out the window. Frankly, even I don’t know exactly how it’ll shake out. But I do know it won’t be anywhere near what the pundits (including John Batchelor) predict. I can give you the rough outlines of the endgame though: either we will end up being totally enslaved by some oligarchy with no economy and influence to speak of; or we will re-discover the things that make us uniquely American and hold them sacred. We are at the tipping point. It could go either way. I personally would give the edge to the latter. It may just be wishful thinking on my part, except I know I’ve got plenty of company. These things have a tendency to snowball. Practically the whole country is poised and waiting for a break – for the opportunity - to clear out the chaff of corruption and re-establish what’s good, fair and decent.
Things are happening fast out there. There’s still plenty that’s going right. Did you happen to read about the e-mails that were made public, originating from some ‘global warming’ think tank in the UK, proving without question that the ‘global warming’ frenzy was a hoax and that they all knew it was? These are the same people who’ve been scamming us for decades, pushing through destructive legislation (destructive to America, that is) involving everything from drilling (for oil) to all the various pandemics. With each scam they’ve succeeded in taking something away from us.
Now, with Obama in the White House, they think they’re into the home stretch. If you’ve noticed (and I’m sure you have) they’re throwing everything but the kitchen sink at us. It’s meant to overwhelm us; to get us to heel; to accept their chains and shackles without so much as a whimper. It also means they’re growing desperate; that they’ve got more faith in our ability to counter them than they’ve got in themselves.
They won’t get it done. They know, we’ll fight them all the way; we’ll take our country back; and we’ll do it in our uniquely civilized American way that will astound every two-bit dictator that happens to be watching the scrimmage. We’ll do it without getting our hands dirty.
http://peterkoelliker.blogspot.com/
Can one of you two be good enough to give me an explicit answer to my question?
The global warming e-mail scandal is unfortunate, in my opinion. It's illegal and unethical to read other people's e-mails, especially those obtained illegally. We should abide by the same rules as we would expect others to. And unfortunate because anyone with even half a brain knew darned well that this suppression was going on already. Suppression? I'm shocked, shocked....
Lou - From where I sit, Republicans have been far too silent. Sometimes silence can be interpreted as complicit - the old good cop/bad cop routine. Now, it may also be true that whatever Republicans have had to say hasn't been reported. You can squawk all you want, if nobody hears you, it's as good as spitting into the wind. In fact, the only thing I remember hearing from any Republican that came even close to making a point was South Carolina congressman Wilson shouting, "You lie!" The viciousness with which the Dems went after him should have been a clue as to how close Wilson managed to shave the mark.
Also, with regard to the fate of health care bill, I'm afraid it's out of the Republican's hands. The Dems have enough votes to pass anything they want to. If anyone is blocking passage, it's the Dems themselves.
Peter, with respect to your last comment, you're making a common interpretational error, I think. Going in, Reid needs 60 votes, right? He doesn't care if he gets X number of Democrats and Y Republicans, as long as X + Y >=60.
Now, you say it's out of the Republicans' hands, but if they make sure Y=0, then they force X to = 60.
Now, the rest is obvious, but to make it even more clear, the probability that he can't get at least X votes is equal to the complement of the probability that he CAN get X votes:
P(can't get X Democratic votes) = 1 - P(X)
Splitting P(X) (probability of at least X democratic votes) into the discrete probabilities p(x=60), p (x=59), p(x=58), etc..... we have
1- P(x=X) - P(x=X+1) - P(x=X+2) - P(x=X+3) - .....
but since there are only 60 Democratic senators in the Senate, if X=60, all the terms beyond the second go to 0 (i.e., P(x=61) = 0, P(x=62)=0, etc.)
and you have the smallest possible amount being subtracted off on the right hand side of the equation, i.e., 1-(Px=60).
Put in plain English, you've given him no room for error.
Now, what I would do if I was the minority leader is go to Reid and say,
"Look, you worthless, oily chunk of moss bunker, if you take the Public Option out you may lose Burris and Sanders but I'll promise you 10 votes on our side for that amendment and once we do that nobody will be able to touch it."
Other strategies would be to just sit back and laugh as Reid paints himself further and further into a corner with no escape.
Peter,
Yes, that's true of course and in the end, will individual survival instincts overcome party hack loyality? We can only hope [an especially slim hope] when we learn Sen. Landrue caved for $300 million. Nothing like old fashion politics.
Has anyone besides me wondered why, if the Democrats' goal is really to pass a health reform bill in 2009 (and it was once actually the goal to pass it in Summer, 2009) ... why they wrote three different bills, or maybe 4 (two in House, two in Senate) plus a few extra ones floating around for good measure, but 3 main bills.
Three main bills ... why not just one? I believe it's not unprecedented for them to set up a joint congressional task force to write a single bill for both chambers ... but if not, then at least have the left hand know what the right hand is doing.
Why have Baucus et al spend all that time in committee and then abandon their work product? Why just now be deciding what to do about abortion, public option, the doc fix, opt in versus opt out, etc.? If you fail to plan, you're planning to fail. Very trite and time-worn self-help advise but it seems like the Dems never took it to heart.
How is it possible that they could have spent all this time and not reached a compromise? Whatever else you might be able to argue, it seems that at a bare minimum, they are guilty of
(1) piss-poor planning, and
(2) biting off more than they can chew (aka abject greediness.)
My conclusion is that quite apart from the subject matter at hand, they've proven themselves in the public eye to be extremely incompetent administrators. Who would actually want to vote for any of them after this fiasco?
It is and never was about 'health care' per se. It's about control and (as Limbaugh points out) having Democrats elected to major office in perpetuity. To this end they're quite willing to sacrifice a few seats; twist some arms; incur the wrath of the populous. In their ideological minds, they will have done what has never been done in America before: ushered in socialism. When this thing takes effect they can virtually control who lives and dies. ...and they won't have to be competent to do so.