The John Batchelor Show

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Greek Poison: "Enough to focus anybody's mind . . ."

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Dollar Rally?

The gamblers have shorted the euro all the way to Hades in contracts at the Chicago Merc, and the next sound you hear will be the screaming of the bankers. The reckless debt leverage in Greece is a poision that is spreading like an oil spill in the Med.  The wit here mentions that the potential downside for European bailout artists is $320 billion to save the collective rags-to-rags economies of the PIIGS -- Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Greece may be gone. Spain is en route to execution.  The shortside is money like drugs, and it will excite the ops.  The US dollar is rallying?  Well, the euro and the English pound are collapsing, so it makes the dollar look healthy until you peek at the yen and the renminbi.

Greek Poison.

Spoke Tom Lauricella, WSJ, re the PIIGS, Monday 8, and learned that the lingering doubts are that the EU does not have an answer to the Greek profligacy.  The next worry is Spain.  The bet against the euro at the Chicago Merc is now €8 billion to the downside and climbing.  Aaron Task, Yahoo Finance, argues that the short-term action may be a small rally, but that the long-term trend is for the euro to weaken.  Why does this concern the US?  Because global markets are unstable as long as the EU struggles.  One big smart op is betting for the VIX (volatility index) and against all mature markets.  The safer money to be earned is in emerging markets.


POTUS and the Markets.

What is striking when discussing the troubles in Greece and Europe is how there is no interest within the Obama administration or its policies.  The EU appears indifferent to Washington, which is just as well because Washington has been dismissed for the week and will not likely return until after the long holiday weekend.  Lauricella did mention that smart managers point to California as a much bigger problem than Greece -- and that no one looks to be hysterical at California's crater of debt.  It sounds as if the EU has learned that it need not confer with POTUS Obama or his team, and need not look to Washington for ideas or solutions.  Every sovereign fund for itself.  No panic yet.  Panic starts when it starts.    Aaron Task tells me that the market ops are not happy about the erosion in the EU, but they are not moving market bets yet.  Bear Stearns was a little problem, right?  Handled by selling itself to JP Morgan with Fed money, right?  Nothing bad gonna happen as long as the Feds are vigilant, right.  Greece will go away, right?


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4 Comments

Would have liked to see how the U.S. fares in the graphic above. Question: To what extent has the U.S. housing meltdown and subsequent banking crisis brought the PIIGS to where they are today? Or did they arrive at this place of hurt all by themselves through out-of-control spending by their governments trying desperately to appease unreasonable Leftist and union demands?

The thing I am for some reason miffed about is ... why does something like this creep up all of a sudden and play market havoc? There are "people out there" that should be chattering away about this way ahead of time identifying trends etc.
Why in this age of constant monitoring are the PIIGS out of seemingly nowhere now in laser sharp focus?
I can understand maybe Dubai with dubious transparency, but the Eurozone? The avant garde of everything?

What's the next disaster du jour??

Tell us JB, what is Iran going to do on the 11th ?? I just can't wait. Should I stay home (in Brooklyn) for the arrival of the next Snowman of the Apocalypse tomorrow or take the bike or train to work as usual?

vsk

They should just make all forms of trading illegal and then this kind of thing would not happen. Tsk, tsk.

By the way, that moment when James Taranto said "I'm a bachelor on the John Batchelor show", John reacting with dead silence and a sarcastic rejoinder, and Taranto saying with mock discomfort, "I suppose you get that alot" gets my nod for the funniest moment in the show (since I've been listening).

I thought that was funny too, although it was so dry I needed a drink of water.

The show has been more boisterous and upbeat lately. Lots of material to churn through too.

vsk

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