Jumping Conclusions.
My information is that the DPRK general staff (North Korea) gave the order to sink the South Korean warship near on to the Northern Limit Line established in 1953. Evan Ramstad, WSJ, reports that the first news of the incident was confusing and helter skelter -- mentioning a warship firing on a flock of birds, then mentioning a warship sinking. President Lee and his national security council met in emergency session within hours of the sinking, at approximately 830 PM Korean time Friday 26, and met again on the morning after the attack. No statement from the Blue House, the Korean presidential palace. US State Department official Crowley suggests that no one "jump to conclusions." My information is not jumping. The clear report from sources is that a North Korean submarine torpedoed and sank a major South Korean warship. The action was in response to perceived provocations during the join naval exercise between the ROK Navy and the US Navy over the last weeks. The attack could not have taken place without Beijing signing off on the decision. There is no information at this time that Tehran was consulted; however, the shoot order follows the general understanding between Tehran and the DPRK that any provocation must be answered with blunt force. The shoot order is meant to humiliate ROK and to intimidate the Obama administration. My information is that POTUS has ordered the Lee government to stand down and not retaliate in any fashion. The Lee government has not yet characterized its position. Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, comments that the succession struggle in the Kim regime over the last year has been marked by violence, irrational conduct and threats, yet always coordinated with the Beijing leadership. I speculated with Gordon Chang that the White House was on the telephone with Beijing to consult re the North Korean predation. The answer is that nothing that happens in North Korea is outside of the supervision of the PLA and the CP at Beijing.
Beijing and Shanghai.
What connection does the shoot order have to threats against the US issued by Beijing over the last months? The threat to retaliate for the Taiwan warship deal? The threat to retaliate for the Dalai Lama's visit to the White House? The threat issued when Treasury and the White House accused China of currency manipulation? The threat against Google and other corporations operating on the Mainland? The Beijing regime has piled up a list of grievances over the last year. Is the shoot order in the Yellow Sea a push-back?
Investigation
Evan Ramstad tells me the ship is down in relatively shallow water, so recovery will be matter-of-fact. The DPRK and China have not made an effort to hide the evidence. How will the Obama administration handle the fallout? What of Japan? What of relations between ROK and the US? All unknowns. This is a major landmark in the sixty-year road of violence since the sneak attack of the Korean war in June, 1950. Trouble ahead.
You are spot on here JB. No quarrel here about your assessment. The question is, why would SK stand down? POTUS is pusillanimous, so I understand his lack of will to confront anything with force. He never has, like the nerd school kid that gets pushed around by bullies. The thing is he runs the country with the biggest stick now, and at the same time does not understand what he is up against, a mad man. Backing down only emboldens China and NK. Talk is cheap and ineffective. Great post.
China is thinking short term. Western Democracies, especially sympathetic Liberal governments always give cover to non-allies.
Where is Ronald the Great when we need him?
It's become grand sport by the tyrants of the world to embarrass the U.S. and particularly Barack Hussein Obama. They are beginning to realize that his hands are tied by his own doomsday ideology. Now they're probing just how far he can be pushed. Evidently, it’s going well - like a hot knife through butter.
POTUS will continue to prove his macho by taking on the American people as well as America's allies. Obama has turned America's self interest on its head. America's government is now operating entirely at the behest of the enemy.
I happened to hear the some of the segment on Lenin last night. Like Lenin, Obama believes in nothing – like the suicide bomber preparing to unleash his mayhem in a Tel Aviv pizza parlor. The American press, equally vacuous, will continue to provide cover.
http://peterkoelliker.blogspot.com/
And if you read the New York Times, they feature an article about the Seder at the white house, as some way to rehabilitate Obama after the Netanyahu debacle. The press and NYT in particular are nothing but a propaganda wing for the Obama administration. Even the mainstream press cannot deny this any longer.
I find it interesting that Obama finds it easier to bully his own people at home. I guess it's a situation he has control over and doesn't have to spill any blood, yet. As I have said before, the best Italian word from my dad would be cacasotto. That's what BHO is, and like a cornuto, he'll pee on his own to get his pride back. What a loser. The guy is feckless...What would the godfather say (think of the godfather from Imus in the morning) Act like a man! Smile.
Word on the street is there were no NK ships nearby and SK was testing artillery/ordinance. Artillery explosion?
US intelligence may know more than NK and SK and told everyone to keep their pie-holes shut.
Could have been a Hindenburg-type disaster, static shock or someone smoking where they should not have been smoking. Smoking and artillery do not mix.