Sudden darkening news from Fukushima includes a Reuters flash, now backed by a BBC report, that the water at Unit #2 is up to 10 million times normal, and that the workers must be evacuated. This is not a positive development after anecdote for the last days of workers' being damaged by radiation from stepping in contaminated water. The Japanese government has aleady estimated the quake and tsunami and reactor disaster to cost over $300 billion. The puzzle remains of whether or not it can be contained. The reports for several days have pointed to Unit #3 as the problem. Unit #2 (below, #2 control room as they restored lights) was not featured for several days and was presumed solved. The evacuation zone outside of Fukushima continues to grow, with a quarter of a million already evacuated and the red line spreading into Fukushima Prefecture. The challenge is how to measure the TEPCO failure at Fukushima (the reminder is that this is said to be a 60% man-made crisis caused by TEPCO's denial, arrogance, delay and deception in the first critical hours). A strange victim, out of many more to come, is Angela Merkel, who is now slated to lose a bi-election in Baden-Wurtemberg because she reversed course on nukes in Germany. The Germans have only seventeen reactors, and for the short-term they have closed the seven most like Fukushima. The Greens are rallying voters to the no-nuke cause. It is coming the US way, and we have 104 reactors, with four on fault zones and more than twenty like the light-water reactors at Fukushima. The ongoing crisis at Fukushima will weaken the nuke forces in all hemispheres. Worse, TEPCO is now baldly revealed as untrustworthy, and this case will spoil all trust of nuke operators.
In a previous post entitled “Hubris” I discussed the ramifications of a leader who gets himself elected and then governs against the will of his people. We’re seeing this so often now – even in our own country. Granted, the first mistake was ours. This is not to say that we are now collectively responsible for all that follows. If we were to go to a store, for instance, and buy a product that is subpar or even dangerous, we are not obligated to go back to that store again even if this store should still exist and compel us to do so. Yet, every day we pile on increasing layers of outrage at our government’s handling of things.
A parent is different from a pal. Pals bear no responsibility towards each other. Parents do. They are instrumental as role models for their children. They are responsible for their safety. This is not something that demands regulation. It’s instinctual and hardly ever fails. In our last presidential election, we have essentially chosen a pal to lead us – someone we could see ourselves sitting at a bar with and having too many drinks – from Facebook no less!
From my own experience with LSD (during my college days), I learned of the 'perfect moment'; that it is next to impossible for any one person to screw things up; that no matter what we do (or neglect to do), the sun will still rise every morning and the birds will still fly north or south depending on the season; that our personal imprint on life would forever be perfectly balanced by the imprint of another. This lesson taught me to relax and not to take myself so seriously, and simply enjoy the gift of life for its own sake.
This would eventually translate into my fervent belief that mankind is too puny to destroy the planet, as many of my generation claim. From my perspective, I could see that what is commonly referred to as the ‘green movement’ is primarily politically driven. With what’s currently happening in Japan, I’ve been forced to retreat from my earlier position and concede that we, as a species, may have overstepped a dangerous threshold.
What a kindly, wild-haired gentleman with his Princeton chalkboard unleashed may well represent a power that is beyond mere men’s ken to contain. I tend now to side with the ‘greens’ in their reflex jihad against nuclear power. It is a hallmark of men to make mistakes, any fallout from which (up till now) has been capable of being well absorbed within the larger fabric.
Nuclear seems somehow different – a departure from the norm - and yet, if history is a guide, there is no turning back. We happily allow the madmen of Iran and the children of Pakistan at the controls. If it is possible for Japan – by all accounts one of the most sober and disciplined populations on earth – to run afoul of it, we must clearly take a second look at our general policy of indifference toward this particular subject.
Our indifference is hardly blind. It stems from the enormity of the task ahead: getting the genie back into the bottle. Many will say it can’t be done. Yet, even with the very real potential of the birds raining from the sky and the sun circling endlessly around an blind planet, it seems we cannot afford not to try.
http://peterkoelliker.blogspot.com
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
EASY TO BE GREEN WHEN EVERYTHING'S LOOKING BLACK.
Maybe 25 years ago, 60 Minutes explained the French nuclear energy system. What France did was review all available reactors and select the one (Westinghouse?) it thought was best. Then it duplicated this one reactor over and over for different parts of the country. What this allowed was a uniform, understandable system that made accidents less likely and made containment possible w/fewer glitches if an accident were to occur. It made the American system of every individual power company choosing its own style of reactor look pretty haphazard and amateurish. Of course, (being CBS) 60 Minutes also showed how the French solved the problem of spent nuclear rods so much better than America.
Thinking about this now, with Japan front and foremost, I have a different conclusion: I think the singular problem w/nuclear reactors is that there hasn't been enough development. The more money and research put into new reactors, the greater the innovation and the greater the problem-solving that will occur. Solving future problems will allow technology to also continue to improve old reactors. By stopping the development of new reactors all we do is get behind the learning curve. Being in front of the learning curve is where all the answers are and it will keep America competitive.
Just in time knuckleheads.RT @Reuters:Japan says very high radiation reading reactor was wrong Reuters http://reut.rs/dKhuks #batchelorshow
THE ROANOKE COLONY
The Roanoke Colony disappeared without a trace. For hundreds of years, it was not known why. An Indian massacre was thought to be a possibility. I think today there is consensus that the colony was wiped out by a hurricane. It was just that, until somewhat recently, the power of a Category 5 hurricane was unknown.
Last night on the JBS, an author explained how the oral tradition of some south Asian native groups saved them from a tsunami. They knew: When the sea along the shore disappears, head for the hills (higher ground). The exact same story was told about the Hilo Tsunami after WWII: Many that died were so amazed by the fish flopping on the ocean floor when the sea receded, that they went into the ocean either to catch some fish or just to see what was happening up close. When I was there several years ago, there were still some old bent parking meters in front of rebuilt shops that were kept as reminders of the tsunami.
A recent movie, Hereafter, very dramatically shows the horror of a tsunami on an unsuspecting seaside town. But what was really shocking was that, with all the research done for the film, it didn't show the ocean receding.
The Japanese know better than anyone about the strength of tsunamis. The story that hasn't been told yet is why the planning for the Fukushima reactor took into account an earthquake (albeit a less forceful one) -- but not a tsunami.
Technology is neither good nor bad. It's the human element of how its used that gives it a morality,
Things don't tend to happen in nature on a scale of 10^7 that quickly (with the possible exception of Big Bang-like conditions). Someone should have smelled a rat before that reading was publicized, and double-checked.
For anyone who's interested, I've been checking that radiationnetwork.com website every day or two since 3/11, and the readings throughout the U.S. haven't budged at all. Still in the 10-30 CPM range for everywhere except Denver, which usually runs 50-60 CPM because of the altitude.
I am going to buy a Geiger Counter as soon as they have them back in stock (they sold out of even the high-end models) and start a counting station here in my house (to attach to that network.) I'm more worried about my rock collection than I am about Fukushima at the moment. It would be hilarious if the world were panicked over a reading from the gummite and pitchblende samples in Lou's rock collection.
10 million X, or 100,000 X; what’s the difference when even twice is too much? Reminds of all the trillions the Fed is throwing around. No human can grasp the significance of such numbers, so it ends up just being a pi**ing contest.
BTW, have you noticed that virtually all these so-called ‘experts’ the networks are trotting out are anti-nuclear dudes and dudettes from way back. They’re having a field day spouting their flat-earth propaganda. Reminds of the guys that go out in the off-season and buy a plow attachment for their trucks. Then they sit on their a**es and wait till it snows.
Quite so. Before a tsunami hits, the sea is sucked out for quite some distance and then it comes back with a vengeance. When the tsunami hit the east coast of India some years back, there were indeed people who went out to examine some ancient temples (in Mahabalipuram) that suddenly emerged. The stray dogs knew better. They could be seen en masse high-tailing it inland to higher ground.
Just saw "Battle: Los Angeles" with Aaron Eckhart. Surprisingly good Sci-Fi.
"No human can grasp the significance of such numbers" ...
Not to bust your chops for hyperbole, Peter, but I work with numbers daily, I consider myself perhaps only a middle-of-the-pack mathematician, and I can easily comprehend the difference between 10^5, 10^7, 10^9, etc. You should say "no numerically illiterate American" can grasp the significance of such numbers. There are plenty of people like me who do it for a living and easily grasp the significance.
I've done actuarial valuations for a one-man client, where the liability is $50,000, up to LAUSD, where the liability is getting close to $10B now (was only around $4B when I was their actuary). It helps you to grasp the full spectrum of magnitudes to where you know it in your sleep.
Yes, but do you know what such differences might mean when it comes to radiation? Look, I'm talking as one who has never been particularly facile with numbers. I’ve admitted that. When I get low on bills in my wallet, I visit the ATM. I think that's just about where most of us are. I no longer trust what the government is telling us in terms of what things cost. It always changes anyway, usually to the up side. I don't trust the Fed's use of language. "Monetize" to me means ‘printing money’ and then, as I understand it, we buy it back with more debt. It's things like that that's got me spooked. It seems like they make the rules and then change them when they need to. In effect, for them, there are no rules. It's only us who have to keep counting the bills in our wallets.
And, another thing while I’m at it: I remember back when I had only One dollar bills in my pocket. Then, I suddenly needed Fives; then Tens; then 20's. Now it's 50's. The stuff I'm buying hasn't gotten all that much better. Bottom line: We're being snookered.
My daughter sent me this thing that shows all the radiation doses in microsieverts from the ones we get every day from mundane things such as eating a banana or sleeping next to someone, up to standing right next to a leaking nuclear reactor. I think I have it at the office and I'll try to remember to post it tomorrow.
I asked her how to convert CPM to microsieverts, assuming it would involve some average number of microsieverts per click, but she took a powder on it, given that she's still a college student and hasn't learned how to convert book learning to practical knowledge just yet. I never bothered to figure out the answer to my question, since I get paid to do actuarial valuations, not dabble in nuclear physics. But from watching the network every day, I've seen what resembles a normal distribution within the 10-40 range for California. Now, if I ever saw a reading above that range, say 100, I'd have to go to the next chart. And if it got to 1,000, to the next chart after that. See what I mean? I don't need to know all the details of exactly what 30 or 50 or 100 mean, I just need to know what map I'm on, and what the general danger level is for that particular level of the grid.
We're only being "snookered" if we don't know what's going on ... I think we have a good idea of what's going on. We don't like it, but... at the point you realize you're being snookered, you stop being snookered anymore.
If you want a government man you can trust on the numbers, try Richard Foster, chief actuary of the Social Security Administration. Man shoots straight as an arrow. Read his analysis of what ObamaCare would do to Medicare (published just over a year ago.) The CBO's numbers aren't any good because they're GIGO. CBO numbers are based on static assumptions (i.e., we'll raise the marginal tax rates to 60% but people will pay the taxes rather than change their behaviour.) Foster, OTOH, is an actuary, and a damned good one, and he first will answer the question put to him based on the unreasonable, posited assumptions; then he tells you, "Now, here's an appendix showing what will REALLY happen." He also writes well enough for the average non-actuary to grasp the numbers.
Is it time for the concrete trucks?
Here we go. I don't know which is the bigger threat, the radiation or my HTML. Trust me, this is worth a click:
http://xkcd.com/radiation/
Mary Landrieu looks like she's really been hitting the Jambalaya hard since ObamaCare passed.
Lou,
Watch this:)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHBcSPUPPvc
JD
Yep, I remember those days very clearly. But look at her now ... she's gone "wide screen" in the last year. She must have spent most of her bribe money on chocolates.
Interesting how the UN is coming under so much pressure now that the US has decided to step back a bit. For all the fretting that we do about this administration's failure to lead, I think it has had a salutary effect on the international community. At the moment, I'm pleased with the result: 1) the UN and NATO exposed as totally inadequate to the job (not that there was ever much doubt about that, but people who never dared confront the truth as long as America cast such a big shadow are now having to deal with the reality); 2) others in the club of Western Democracies are beginning to assert themselves in ways they have never had to in the past with so far good results.
Now the IAEA has finally stepped on its genitalia with such a spectacularly wide-spread results that nations are beginning to look around for a successor:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/31/us-japan-nuclear-iaea-idUSTRE72U5KY20110331
Reading this story about the plant workers resignation to the inevitable, I remember the remark made by the bad-ass sergeant in Band of Brothers, the one the others thought had massacred the German prisoners, although no body saw it happen. Donnie Wahlberg's character asked the Sgt how to deal with the conflicting emotions and still stay effective, or words to that effect. The Sgt replies, "you have to realize that you're already dead."
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03/31/japans-nuclear-rescuers-inevitable-die-weeks/
Japan to take control of Tokyo Electric Power: report
http://reut.rs/hn0dlW
If this report turns out to be true, it's about freakin' time! It should have happened within 4 days of the tsunami, when it was obvious that TEPCO was ineffectual in delivering engineering to the problem. No later than a week. Nato left the decisions in TEPCO's hands faaaaaaaaaaaar to long.