Spoke John Avlon, Taegan Goddard, Jessica Taylor, Salena Zito, Major Garrett in re the NY-26 special election these hours, and the consensus is that the Democrat upstart Kathy Hochul will defeat the Republican Jane Corwin in a heavily (plus 30K) GOP district that belonged to Jack Kemp once upon a time. The is a reversal of fortune in the CD that Chris Lee abandoned with his silly, shirtless photographs in craigslist. The Hochul success was built on the Mediscare that worked in 1995 against Newt Gingrich's House: the GOP wants to take away your Medicare so it can give tax breaks to its rich friends the bankers and plutocrats. The Democrats have thrown in all their guns, Chuck Schumer (in person), Nancy Pelosi (a fund-raiser in Manhattan), Bill Clinton (robo-calls), and Andrew Cumo on an ad that will run in the Web because all the TV time is gone. John Boehner traveled to NY-26 for a funder for Corwin; and Corwin uses $2 million of her own money. The Tea Party spoiler (and former Democrat/Republican) Jack Davis has pulled support from both candidates and made the election close, leaning to Hochul. Both parties will overinterpret the result and adjust the 2012 message accordingly. Paul Ryan is the big loser if Corwin loses, because his Medicare reform talk is what Hochul used to reignite her flagging campaign. Boehner is the second big loser if Corwin loses, because this begins the sad story of how Boehner squandered the 2010 election on nuance and misdirection. Does this help Pawlenty or Romney or the rest of the fledgling and frail field? Not in the interpretation that the Party must go darker and angrier about the Democrats's parlor game tricks.


"the GOP wants to take away your Medicare so it can give tax breaks to its rich friends the bankers and plutocrats."
Wow! Does that kind of sophomoric attack actually work in sophisticated NY? BTW, I had to look up the word plutocrat. Now that I know what the term means I am convinced that plutocrats don't have any friends. Republican or otherwise. They only know useful idiots that they help stay in office because they are, well, useful. Is Chuck Schumer actually a "big gun"?
When did the "greatest" generation become the "greediest" one. They talk about living through the depression and how tough it was, and cash is king, and how you have to save for a rainy day. When did they become dumb enough to believe that those nasty republicans are going to take away their right "Medicare." Medicare is so entrenched, it's like libraries and schools and they're not going anywhere.
The real question then is how to cut these massive "social" programs that threaten to engulf every dollar out there. The government can confiscate every dollar of wealth and it still won't be enough. This is a ponsi scheme and we have no more marks to con into the system.
The demonizing of Paul Ryan's budget shows that we can't have an adult conversation about the problems and do a surgical cut to the budget and balance needs vs wants then we have to do cuts across the board. This can be done one way 20% across the board everything, there is no sacred cows.
One of John's guests last night was talking about the poll in NY-26 where current recipients of Medicare were not worried about themselves but were worried about the ones that would follow. I think this is nonsense because this group, the oldest of the boomers, have assets that previous generations did not have.
Medicare is not being used to provide basic or emergency medical care to an aging population but rather deep pockets to pay for long-term care that is very expensive nobody really plans for and no one wants to pay for out of their own pockets.
NY-26 is the latest of the voluminous evidence that Republicans, with rare exceptions, remain pathetically unable to counter Democrat "scare" attacks of various kinds. This lack of brains, guts, whatever, goes back at least to the 1964 campaign and the video of that little girl picking flowers suddenly incinerated in the nuclear war Goldwater's "scary" polices were supposed to bring on. The Dems have employed the same tactics regarding Social Security, the Great Society, health care, etc., not only to win particular elections but also to create permanent political templates casting Republicans as greedy, hate-filled, racist, backward, war-mongering, "fat cats," whatever. Aided and abetted by the MSM, such templates form the "floor" of the debate so that Republicans and conservatives must begin by proving a nullity, i.e., that they "really are not" whatever template is being utilized against them.
In the face of this endless, decades-long barrage of negative attacks, caricatures, demonization, deliberate distortions, and outright lies, the GOP have been largely clueless as to how to respond forthrightly, courageously, and effectively. Reagan was the great exception, of course, but the Doles and McCains and Bushes have been more typical, shying away from counterattack in favor of bleatings about "reaching across the aisle" and fostering a "new tone" that is "less partisan" and "kinder and gentler" or more "compassionate." For obvious reasons, such pathetic whinings fail miserably, and the Damnocrats continue on their merry way of all-out attack, now to likely victory in NY-26.
The polls are tight. Could go either way.
Thanks to Mr. Batchelor for linking above the Kim Strassel article, especially regarding the endorsement of the bogus Tea Party candidate by another disgruntled GOPer who wanted to be the GOP pick to run in this special election. Once again, the WSJ reporting runs circles around the MSM frat-boy co-hosts, who have consistently downplayed the other crosscurrents in this special NY election and parroted the Dems & MSM narrative about this election being primarily a referendum on Ryan & Medicare.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703864204576319602625959850.html
Look, the Repubs have to underline the idea of the flight of $$ to where it's treated best. The electorate must be made to understand things beyond a salesy sound byte.
The tax revenue from the 'evil rich' pays for all this stuff.
The 'evil rich' with mobile capital are happy to move it somewhere else at lower tax rates.
* * *
Every time there looks to be a candidate with some "fire in their belly", the demure 'too cool for school' types trash them, ... on both sides. The current crop is still, . . . uninspiring.
I want someone inspiring who knows how to do something. Or who has actually done something.
Someone got the current empty suit 'blank canvas' candidate in there now. All sales job.
It's going to be great to explain to my niece's or nephew's kids one day, from me, the crazy old uncle who they wheel out at special occasions, " You know what you young'uns, back shortly after the turn of the century, America, what was left of it, went crazy. Everyone went gaga over some guy who was unheard of, with questionable citizenship, who's only accomplishment in the Senate after voting 'present' a number of times was running for president (no one knows anything else about him, it was somehow top secret) . . . they elected him over a war hero with a long track record in the Senate. Now take your ration card to the corner and get a can of soup."
vsk
"The Democrats have thrown in all their guns,"
Perhaps, but you know one thing for sure: they can't do this all over the country. They don't have the resources. NY 26th will be abpit as much of a harbinger of Damacratic revival as NY 29ths Bill Owens was.
We have lost the language. We no longer listen to each other, we only speak. As such, we do not hear what anyone else is saying. It’s become a problem worldwide. Arab hatred for Jews is based on a lie. The idea of ‘global warming’ was based on a lie. Democrats painting Republicans as racist is a convenient lie, as is the current campaign against ‘the rich’.
The templates are set. There is no escaping. We, on the right, have hardened our templates as well in response to the Left’s aggression. We ourselves have countered with lies. In this climate, how can mere words be anything but partisan? Our alienation from each other goes much deeper than words. It can no longer be solved by simply inventing new words and casting new templates.
Words and templates seem flimsy when seen alongside powerhouse emotion. Palestinians hate Jews. Democrats hate Republicans. Communists hate capitalism. The poor hate the rich. Words are the kindling. Once the fire is started, it can no longer be contained. More kindling will not douse it. We are already into the next phase: power.
As Tom rightly points out, the Left has been meticulously organizing since the 60’s. They’ve done so incrementally, taking tiny steps: at first it was casual Fridays. Now, they also have the power. They control the narrative. All we on the Right can do is counter with kindling. Truth has long since become irrelevant - economic theory, for instance.
The only way out is to ‘reset’ (sorry Hillary!). Something of such significance must happen as to be capable of blowing all previous assumptions away - bringing people back to basics; getting them to actually face each other again, and begin responding to others’ basic needs.
In the past, the only human instrument capable of bringing this about has been war. In war, ideologies are not of much use. All such armchair posturing is subjugated by the need to survive. Soldiers may even encounter situations in which they must depend (in one way or another) on the enemy for their survival. (Note: leaders seldom face this dilemma.) Life hangs in the balance, but at least you’re looking at the whites of someone’s eyes who is not you, and you’re almost bound to find that common thread (good or bad) that defines a human trait.
I hold that when it gets down to brass nuts, men will behave like men – with kindness and good will. It may take something calamitous to get us back to there.
NY-26 is an example of localized political pantomime. We’re seeing lips move, but we’re not actually there. It would be a mistake to characterize these (or any) voters as dumb (or easily led.) There is a reason for why things happen the way they do.
From this distance, it looks like the partisan shtick all over again with a twist: It seems to me that Republicans are even more hated than Democrats. Republicans are hated for being weak and not standing up to Democrats. They’re hated for reaching across the aisle; they’re hated for compromising. They’re hated for getting up and smiling broadly under the TV lights after having just betrayed some important principle, thinking themselves the cat’s meow.
http://peterkoelliker.blogspot.com/
http://pkoelliker.blogspot.com/
"We have lost the language."
It's the explosion of lawyers and lawyer-like thinkin since the 60s. A lawyer's main tool in any dispute is framing. Ask any lawyer, and he'll tell you, "If you let me frame the issue, I win the debate." Cultural relativism plays a role here as well. If you can't count on shared assumptions, then every seemingly common place-term has to be defined by both sides and negotiated. Debasing language, loss of cultural hegemony and civility are rarely good things.
If POTUS thinks he'll lose re-election (and maybe even if doesn't), he'll go out far to the left like Icarus in a blaze of glory . . . starting with creating a Palestinian state on "1967 borders." Next cratering the budget, what budget. Then opening the back doors to union infiltration and domination. I feel a bad, bad Europe coming on.
2010 "I'd rather be a really good one-term President than a mediocre two-term President. "Really good" by whose definition.
Obama is shaping up to be the most consequential POTUS since Reagan.
The POTUS hoaxes just keep on coming. There've been some doozies: the 2008 election, the birth certificate, Osama bin... I find this latest a scream, passing himself off as Irish.
Screaming headlines:
Contractors and businesses that received money through the 2009 federal economic stimulus plan owe billions in unpaid taxes to the U.S. government, a federal auditor said on Tuesday.
The Government Accountability Office said that as of September 30, 2010, the total bill for unpaid taxes, including interest and penalties, was $330 billion.
By law the federal government can make grants to entities that owe taxes, so some of the outstanding bills were racked up before the stimulus plan was passed.
___________________________________________________________________________
So?
This is known in the trade as "low-hanging fruit." It always sounds great, scandalous, outrageous. But it's also futile and misleading. Basically, it's a BFD.
The council I used to work with would get pinged regularly from DEPSECDEF about doing business with tax cheats. He'd want us to write a contract clause that required our contractors to be paid up or they couldn't have a contract. Apparently the publicity that the clauses was demanded was all that either the media or the public was interested in. We'd put out the clause for public comment, as required by the Administrative Procedures Act, and the public comment would make the record supporting our ultimate decision that such a clause was self-defeating, would cost the government more money in dealing with only lilly pure companies, require exemptions for sole-source companies whose product we had to have, cost jobs, be an administrative nightmare, and require a law permitting the acquisition community access to private taxpayer data that by law cannot be disclosed by IRS.
Here's the facts: Lots of businesses owe the government taxes for varying reasons. Many pay quarterly payments on bills that don't come due until the tax year concludes. For those in serious delinquency, repayment argeements are worked out with IRS. If companies were required to repay all their indebtedness at once, calamity in the form of company dissolutions and loss of jobs would be the next big story, and the media would demand explanations as to how the government could be so stupid.
One thing I think we should all be grateful for in Newt's implosion about the Ryan plan is it removed from everyone, including Ryan, any thoughts of leaving the House for a better paying job. I heard the All-Stars kicking around their idea that Ryan must run for Prez because he's the only one who can explain his plan reasonably and it will be the centerpiece of the Republican campaign in 2012.
Well, that's too bad that no one else is conversant enough to make its case, but as I see it, Newt has made it impossible for Ryan to run for anything but his own job, and given the wrath of the Damacrats, you can bet that if there's a #1 target in 2012, it won't be the Republican nominee, whoever the joker is. It will be Ryan, because that's a 2-fer: if they take out Ryan on the basis of his plan, they automatically take out the Republican contender.
I'm beginning to think that it's not a matter of there being too little money around. Instead it might be that there's just too much sloshing around there in Washington. Wasn't it Biden who was supposed to be watching expenses 'like a hawk'?
BHO-Reid et al invoke demagoguery, emotional hot buttons and the "What, me Worry?" defense of imploding Medicare and exploding debt. The battle is tough and long, but ultimately, slowly the ship of state can be turned and its course corrected it course.
Ryan need not run for Prez. But 5 different 2 minute Ryan video ads can blanket hundreds of media markets and go viral on YouTube. The "woe is us" stuff here? Sorry, not for me. I am signing on with Levin, Limbaugh, Hugh Hewitt, Prager, Allen West, Mark Rubio, Steve Forbes, Steve Moore and other Patton-Churchillian battlers. HUGE, formidable corners have recently been turned... e.g., for AGW/ClimateChange; in Wisconsin and NJ; on domestic energy sanity; BiBi schools BHO, in the White House and before Congress. Bravi!
After bloody long fights, math, facts, logic and backbone ultimately trump emotion and lies. Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?? Has Hayek ever thrown in the towel against Keynes?
"After bloody long fights, math, facts, logic and backbone ultimately trump emotion and lies."
And you have all those examples from history to sustain your belief, right? Please share.
First example: AGW and climate change. Three years ago the GLOBE was gearing up for trading carbon credits. Financial giants were drooling. Many billions, maybe trillions of $ of world productivity was about to get siphoned off in trading fees, regulatory mire and industrial penalties and inefficiencies. Global resource MEGA-misallocations were imminent. The world was on the brink of genuine economic madness, fed by lies, demagoguery and junk science. It is hard to overstate the global waste that was about to happen. Scientific disputation existed only on a few rogue websites. Post East Anglia: different world. Climate Depot rocks. All those Inhofe minority Senate reports of AGW dissenters were vindicated. Cap and trade is dead. Sure, we cannot make all the screaming greeny nippleheads vanish. Assorted sphincters still trumpet lies about 99% scientific consensus. But the AGW sciences and polity corpse is rotting. The villains must now try to accomplish by subterfuge (e.g., EPA regs) what they were about to institutionalized globally, permanently. No, the battle is not over. But truth won out. Michael Mann's hockey stick is shattered. For all intents and purposes, so is he.
Second example, federalism generally (experimental laboratories for policy), illustrated by (1) citizens voting with their feet, moving or shrugging escaping taxes; and (2) state right to work laws.
Lower tax states attract success, prosperity, citizens and increased reps. Oppressive states attract drones, dependents and debt. See, e.g., VA and TX, compared to the imminent disasters in IL, CA, RI(?) and elsewhere. Jurisdictions that make illegals unwelcome improve; those that celebrate their sanctuary status suffer. Federalism permits facts to emerge, people to respond, rewards and penalties to follow. Brewer by BHO-Holder, and Arpaio gets harassed, because they are doing the right thing.
SC WILL get that Boeing plant in North Charleston, although battles remain. When NH goes right to work, a key fuse ignites in the Northeast. Triggered by public union battles in Indiana, Wisc, Ohio, etc., similar budget and policy corrections will occur in many other states.
Third: BHO's teeth-gritting acquiescence to more drilling/development (notwithstanding the butts he will add) and the Bush tax rates each happened because of economic realities - the math, science, incentives of the status quo made no sense and had to be changed, even if the statists intend only a temporary change. Permanent victory? No, but that was why BHO submitted.
A 40,000 foot summary of all 3 examples: Hayek (supply-side economics, personal freedom) Rules.
"But truth won out."
Not really. The AGW forces are getting over a billion annually. Governments and foundations like Gates and Ford et al. have not stopped larding scarce billions on AGW research entities and scientists. The US alone will spend $4 billion this year. Your declaration of victory is premature, I think.
http://www.thegwpf.org/the-climate-record/2239-how-much-money-are-us-taxpayers-wasting-on-climate-change-try-106-million-a-day.html
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/julia-gillard-says-carbon-trading-will-be-rort-proof/story-e6frg6xf-1226059107920
It's more than that in Europe where carbon trading is alive and well. And lets not forget the ethanol vote, plus the Government subsidized promotion of electric cars as the wave of the future while we scandalously sell our natgas reserves to nations smarter than we are who will used it for transportation.
AGW Hysteric turned warming critic Bjorg as reconverted back to AGW hysteria just when the AGW PR campaign needed him most. (Sort puts me in mind of that stat about independents and how they vote.)
If I could think of the name of that Aussie or Kiwi that John had on his show a couple years ago, who had all the stats about how much money governments waste on this junkscience, I could give you even more persuasive examples.
I have pestered Morano several times for data on how many companies and nations are drawing down on their commitments to AGW, but he never answers. I agree with you that Climatedepot rocks, but that's all it does. Bottom line: can you say, "ineffective?"
Care to try for another heartwarming example?
"Second example, federalism generally (experimental laboratories for policy), illustrated by (1) citizens voting with their feet, moving or shrugging escaping taxes; and (2) state right to work laws."
I will give you that those are examples of individuals doing the right thing for their pocketbooks. But how does that fit in with what I took to be your premise, i.e., that when people are shown the facts (e.g., about SS, Medicare, and Medicaid), they will collectively do the right thing? I took it to be an enthusiastic endorsement of collective sacrifice for the good of the country. Was I missing your point?
Corlyss: AGW - we never went for Kyoto; yes, the Euros have dug in earlier and more. Weenies. Bad for them, good for us. Yes, there is much AGW hysteria in the funding pipeline. Wasted. Pity. But the science is junk. Toothpaste is all over, tubes lost. Last I looked, Euro carbon credits prices were shadows of before. The Euro financial giants are getting killed -- their fees are putrid to what they expected. It will be a slow, painful death for them. Well deserved. We have dodged those stupid bullets.
When Ryan et al hammer on the trustees' guaranteed math of imminent Medicare bankruptcy, the current "dingbat" vote against REFORMING it will erode. It will be in the private interest of a majority of voters to face up to decide between higher user fees or service erosion/rationing. The funding math, through private interest and rationality, will cause a workably correct "collective" change. The alternative, confiscatory, massive tax rates to all, will not work. Atlas will move, hide or shrug.
The tax/budget "lesson" that the public is already accepting for teacher-state govt funding will transfer to health service funding. Much of the public seems to be aware that Canadian and UK health care stinks. A Ryan like reform will look better as time passes, with hard work, and the facile granny over the cliff ads will be seen with BHO as the driver rather than Ryan. Medicaid -- I know little about those dynamics at present. The SS reckoning is down the road a bit, but slow, sliding eligibility age hikes, and slower mandated COLAs, have huge benefits. Ultimately, the funding and benefit math drives self-interest to more rational rules.
Check this out . . .
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/05/ny26-live-blog.php
"But the science is junk."
It doesn't matter as long a single dollar of taxpayer money is being spent on it. Powerful forces in Europe ally with like-minded individuals here, of which there are many, and voila! Hope and change! We elect a man who claims, "The planet will begin to heal!" with his election. Tell you what. You let me know the instant you see any articles that sanity returns to even one western government, on usustainable spending on this conceit. Please. I'm desperate for such news.
"Ultimately, the funding and benefit math drives self-interest to more rational rules."
If by that you mean, ". . . eventually they run out of other peoples' money," I agree. But personally, at that point, I see revolution, not a big college seminar or town hall meeting on "how do we, working together, get ourselves out of this mess?"
Listening to Jessica Who-All, the live blogger for National Journal's Hotline -- tip o' the hat (we're all Irish today) to joedoakes for his early warning on this -- set the stage for analysis of NY-26 returns on JB's show. Jessica reiterates that Republican Jane Corwin now regrets that she didn't answer Democrat Hochul's scurrilous, class-warfare attacks on her and Paul Ryan over Mediscare in favor of repeating 2010 themes of cutting spending and taxes.
Incredible! If anyone still wonders why the Damnocrats regularly eat the GOP's lunch, look no further than NY-26 tonight, even if Corwin pulls it out. First, Corwin professes herself prepared to fight the last war even though Hochul had shifted to an all-out attack strategy framed around the newly surfaced issue of Medicare. But that's not the worst of it. Poor Corwin seems to need to be taught that, when the enemy punches you in the face you respond in kind instinctively; simiilarly, if they are savaging one of your team, like Paul Ryan, you get his back, you don't overthink it and waffle about it, you defend and counterattack!
But let's not be too tough on Jane Corwin; Republican archness, moral uncertainty, intellectual density, and political wimpiness goes back decades in the past. Even the brilliant so-called "architect," Karl Rove, recently admitted -- years too late -- that he should not have advised President George W. Bush to ignore the Damnocrats "Bush-lied-people-died" attacks but hit back instead. The fact is that the Republican Establishment, much less the RINOs, cannot or will not see that divisions in America have long since deepened to the point where, to reverse paraphrase Clausewitz, our politics has become war by other means. Hence the effectiveness of Mediscare in turning the once-safe NY-26 race into a Republican embarrassment, win or lose. And look forward to even more demagogic, class-based savaging of GOP candidates by the Damnocrats from sea to shining sea between now and November 2012. Will the Republicans ever learn to respond, defend, and then go on the offensive? Very doubtful.
I too doubt that truth always emerges victorious. Indeed, I disdain all forms of belief in the Inevitable Future, such as Marxism, the Whig Theory of History, and the notion that free market outcomes must of necessity always be the most desirable ones.
So the AP has called NY-26 for Karen Hochul, Demagogue, er, Democrat. As John Fund pointed out earlier tonight on JB's show, this should be "a wake-up siren" for the GOP but I expect that they will still resolutely reach for the snooze button rather than face stark reality. What else can be expected from a party that needs to LEARN that the instinctive response to attack -- especially scurrilous attack -- is counterattack; similarly, needs to LEARN to think outside the box in which your mortal enemies have placed you.
To be fair, the GOP and all conservatives must also contend with the MSM cheerleading for every demagogic attack and flat-out lie the Damnocrats employ. Consider how the MSM, that alleged bastion of personal liberties, reacted to the brazen announcement that the Obama WH -- the very essence of gangster government -- is now openly seeking to "dig up dirt" on NJ Gov. Chris Christie? Was that a news report or a personal ad? J. Edgar Hoover never had it so good! But the class-warfare, shameless demagoguery, personal attack, lie-like-hell Damnocrat template is more firmly in place than ever, and the Republicans are still as clueless as ever.
Totally agree with you on this, even in respect to free market outcomes. All we can ask of the free market is not inerrancy but, well, freedom, so that in that same freedom people will try to develop ways to deal with adversity and create new and hopefully better outcomes. But there are no guarantees, just as there can be no "end of history."
Death, taxes, and the blind workings of evolution.
I mention these as resources re: the spending on AGW by both governments and private enetities, not as a means of arguing with you. You represent the more hopeful side of my brain. :-)
http://climateshiftproject.org/report/climate-shift-clear-vision-for-the-next-decade-of-public-debate/#chapter-1
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/climate_money.html
FWIW, the opinion of the Red State jedi.
"....To say that this special election defeat of the GOP is a repudiation of the GOP’s efforts on Medicare is laughable on its face.
The truth of the matter is that the Republican Party of New York sucks and has sucked for a while. It is especially terrible at special elections where the out of touch party leaders pick state legislators who everyone hates and runs them...."
http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/
It just goes to show you that elections are decided buy the 20% of voters also know as morons in the middle.
Thanks! I enjoy fine websites, especially on issues I follow irregularly. BTW, meant to add to my thanks again for that Caesar article, especially as to the French digs that spurred TJ to his Notes on Virginia, a wealth of issues and details. Cheers.
You're welcome. It's a keeper. Save it for future reference in subsequent debates. It confounds the liberals I used to debate elsewhere who thought Bush or the Viet Nam war or Reagan or the Cold War was the source of anti-Americanism. Except for the immediate aftermath of WW2, most Europeans have despised the US for a variety of reasons, not the least of which was the fact that they couldn't move here. A friend likes to say that Europeans despise us because we took the rabble they had marginalized and they made a nation unlike any before or now.
Path to minority! That's a good one!
I thought the mediscare tactic was locked in a few weeks ago when a poll, I forget which one, perhaps Pew, found that voters LOVE cutting programs, but 70% of them didn't want to touch medicare or SS. Gee. Whadda surprised that Hochul won pounding on the loss of medicare!
I still say this can't be taken as a sign of things to come simply because the Damacrats don't have the resources to cover the national like they do these one-offs.
Tea party is like Ross Perot, cleaving the Conservative vote in two. It should be a movement NOT a party.
New York 23 Remains a Toss-Up
November 6, 2009 · 2:58 PM EDT
Bill Owens’ victory in New York’s 23rd was the good news for Democrats this week and continued the party’s winning streak in competitive House special elections. But the dynamic that helped Owens win- including a divided Republican Party- can’t be ignored and aren’t likely to be replicated again. For now, his reelection next year is a Pure Toss-Up.
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/new-york-23-remains-a-toss-up
If Juan Williams is right, that over 55s care deeply about what happens to younger people who will eventually be on Medicare and that they are aslo deeply suspicious of the government's power to do whatever it deems necessary to the over 55s whenever they want to (and they are certainly right to be so), ain't no way that Ryan's plan will help the Republicans in 2012. The only way to entice the largest voting block in the electorate to accept the plan was to convince them that they would not suffer under the Ryan plan. Looks like Axelrod-Plouffe were right: do nothing and the Republicans self-destruct in their calls for righteous self-sacrifice.
____________________________________________________________________________
Hochul Win Is GOP Wake-Up Call
Democrat Kathy Hochul claimed victory last night in New York's pivotal House special election by asking supporters at a union hall: "Did we not have the right issues on our side?"
The crowd chanted "Medicare" over and over.
Medicare was Ms. Hochul's sole issue in the campaign, an she used every angle to bolster her claim that the budget passed by House Republicans and endorsed by her GOP opponent, Jane Corwin, would "essentially end Medicare." One ad from a liberal group showed a menacing figure shoving an elderly woman off a cliff.
Before the polls closed yesterday in the Buffalo suburbs that make up the district, Ms. Corwin allowed that she should have addressed the Medicare issue "earlier and differently." "I have to admit that when [Ms. Hochul] started making these comments, I thought these are so outrageous that probably no one would ever believe it . . .. Apparently some people did."
Republicans will console themselves by saying that the presence of a former Democrat running on a tea party ballot line cost them the seat. Ms. Hochul only won 47% to 43%, receiving a lower percentage of the vote in the district than Barack Obama got in 2008.
But they dare not ignore the fact that Medicare proved to be a potent issue for Democrats. "This election is a wake-up call for anyone who thinks that 2012 will be just like 2010," said Steven Law of the conservative group American Crossroads, which pumped $700,000 into the race to help Ms. Corwin. "It's going to be a tougher environment. Democrats will be more competitive. And we need to play at the top of our game to win big next year."
Some House Republicans will be rattled by the election result, as they should be. The district they just lost was once represented by Jack Kemp and has only elected three Democrats to Congress since it was formed in 1857.
Nonetheless, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of California told me last night that while there will be no retreat on the budget they passed, he and his colleagues clearly have to do a better job explaining the Medicare changes to voters. "I tell my constituents that they know Medicare is in trouble and the only way for it to be there for their children and grandchildren is to update and modernize it," he said. "That seems to work, and we have to keep pounding that home."
-- John Fund
The Ryan Budget vs. Mediscare reminds me of a David Horowitz comment on his In-Depth:
Leftists and Democrats and liberals regard politics as war conducted by other means. Republicans regard politics as a management problem. Gingrich said, "if we manage things right, people will elect us." The opposite is true. You get to be the victim of your own success.
The libs/progressives/Damacrats are going to end racism, poverty, and war and save the planet and humanity. The Republicans are going to balance the budget, shrink government, and lower taxes.
Which vision is more . . . um . . . vivid? Which one would you plump for if you, like 95% of the electorate, had so little awareness of human nature and knowledge of history?
Republicans as a party have a vision problem.
The lesson I draw from the NY-26 outcome is that Paul Ryan now MUST run for President. It's obvious that he is the only Republican of any stature who can get the job done. More importantly, Ryan increasingly has no choice but to run.
First, Ryan is the only office holder of either party -- cf. Bill Clinton of all people -- to bravely define a new direction for the country, especially to stave off impending financial doom. Second, even allowing for the fact that Jane Corwin is just another dull-witted emissary from the moribund NY State GOP, it appears that only Paul Ryan has both the brains and the guts to effectively communicate his policy plans, especially on Medicare, to the American people and defend them from Democrat distortion and demagoguery. If he's really serious about saving this country from financial and social ruin, it is becoming clear that he dare not leave this vital task to anyone else, and the best way to ensure his control over it is to declare for President and run his own campaign. Third, having heard it said that Ryan hasn't much foreign policy expertise, a remedy for that is ready to hand -- how would a Ryan-Bolton ticket grab you?
Lastly, I think Ryan has the fighting spirit to actually wage the war that American politics has become, especially now that he is being backed into a corner by the Democrats and their friends the RINOs. Like it or not, they have made Ryan the very face of Conservative Perdition and they will continue to abuse and attack him as such, whether he simply stands pat on where he is now or even tries to climb down from his policy positions.
Overall, I think Paul Ryan needs to respond to a desperate situation for the country just like the immortal Col. Joshua Chamberlain and the 20th Maine did on Little Round Top. As portrayed in the movie Gettysburg, Chamberlain declares to his men, "We can't shoot . . . we can't retreat . . . so we'll charge . . . FIX BAYONETS!!!!"
"Overall, I think Paul Ryan needs to respond to a desperate situation for the country just like the immortal Col. Joshua Chamberlain and the 20th Maine did on Little Round Top. As portrayed in the movie Gettysburg, Chamberlain declares to his men, "We can't shoot . . . we can't retreat . . . so we'll charge . . . FIX BAYONETS!!!!" "
Love the reference, Tom!!!!
Such things as logic, argumentation, and rational self-interest are all very well and good, but the main tools required to achieve power are emotion, desire, and vanity.
Ideological battles are a process of seduction, not of rational persuasion.
Respectable conservatives have allowed themselves to be defined in purely economic terms, although even here they fail miserably.
For instance, the GOP has don nothing to reach out to a potentially huge and vital constituency, that of college graduates groaning under the weight of student loans so massive as to prevent them from starting families until they are in their mid-thirties.
But I digress. Respectable conservatives are even stupider than their enemies on the left accuse them of being.
Henry Kissinger has notoriously said of his own ethnic group that any people that has been persecuted for two thousand years must be doing something wrong. Perhaps something similar could be said of the prevalence of anti-American sentiment in Europe.
"For instance, the GOP has don nothing to reach out to a potentially huge and vital constituency, that of college graduates groaning under the weight of student loans"
That's not a sign of stupidity. That's a sign of smart allocation of resources. The 18-30 demo NEVER turns out in numbers greater than 20%. I hope the idiots like Springsteen, the Google Twins, and Zuckerberg spend tons of money recruiting a demo they already own and which doesn't materialize. http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/voter-survey.htm. True, it might make a difference in a tight race, but not in the places where that demo congregates.
Here's some census data for you. http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p20-556.pdf You'll be particularly intrigued by the delta between total votes and total votes by citizens.
I'm aware that twenty-somethings are not exactly renowned for their voting habits, but perhaps that is because nobody has made it worth their while. Relief from student loan debts could change that.
"Vote for me and avoid a lifetime of debt slavery" is a pretty good campaign slogan, although a professional could no doubt come up with something catchier.
In any case, my main point was that the real battleground is in the area of emotion and aesthetics, not accounting. It is here that respectable conservatives have ceded the high ground, the low ground, and all the ground in between.
I should also add that an astonishing number of people in their forties are still paying off their student loans.
" "Vote for me and avoid a lifetime of debt slavery" is a pretty good campaign slogan, although a professional could no doubt come up with something catchier."
I like it!
And I agree with your premise about emotions, as you might have deduced from my comment above about the Republican's vision problem. They also have a communications problem. Bret Baier asked Ryan to explain his budget as quickly and succinctly as he could. It took over a minute just to hit the hilights. This to a world that natters on about its life in 147 characters! This to a nation most of whom were raised on Sesame Street's 10 sec. jabs at their consciousness.
"For instance, the GOP has don nothing to reach out to a potentially huge and vital constituency, that of college graduates groaning under the weight of student loans ...."
However, the Dems have done something. Hidden in one of Obama thousand of pages of law that nobody read is a provision that if college grads work for a non-profit organization and/or the federal gov't for a period of 5-8 years, the debt will be forgiven. The non-profit part greatly favors Dems.
"Henry Kissinger has notoriously said of his own ethnic group that any people that has been persecuted for two thousand years must be doing something wrong."
The only thing that Jews did wrong was to be a minority in racist Europe.
I make no comment on the merits, if any, of Doctor Kissinger's words. You will have to take the matter up directly with him.
If the Republicans were smart, they would seek to undo Griggs v. Duke Power Company. This assault on credentialism would not only appeal to the core GOP demographic, but also serve as a way of reducing the power of that leftist bastion, the academic-industrial complex.
But they are not smart.
"The non-profit part greatly favors Dems."
So does the government option. Before Obama something like 60% of government workers were Dems. I expect before Val Jarrett is out of office, the gov. will operate like a union shop: you either have to join the union or pay dues to it whether you join or not. Theft.
"Henry Kissinger has notoriously said of his own ethnic group that any people that has been persecuted for two thousand years must be doing something wrong."
It would have been helpful if he'd offered a selection of things he thought might qualify. Without such specificity, we're left to dismiss the comment as coming from academia's favorite kind of Jew: one that sides with academia in 95% of matters political. The major cities are full of 'em, the ones who assimilate by ignoring if not denying their heritage. They are the 70% who routinely vote Damacratic.
Had Kissinger qualified his witticism in proper academic fashion, then it wouldn't have been a witticism any more. As the saying goes, if you dissect enough butterflies, then pretty soon there aren't any more butterflies.
"...the ones who assimilate by ignoring if not denying their heritage."
Can you say, Madeleine Albright. The way it works is like this:
If you ever forget you're a Jew, don't worry, someone will remind you.
Well, in all fairness, her parents converted to Catholicism to escape the Holocaust while she was an infant and raised her Catholic. She didn't discover she was born Jewish until late in her life. I'd cut her a break on that one. There's plenty of "agnostics" out there to pick on. And a few like the ones in HRW & AI involved in the most agressive criticisms of Israel and even the US.