What's News Tonight: November 2011 Archives

What's Breaking News Tonight?

Beat Romney Tarheel

By John Batchelor on November 29, 2011 4:52 PM | 15 Comments

The GOP contest for the nomination fragments into denials and blame-shifting and nose-holding even as the general campaign is under way between POTUS Obama and Governor Mitt Romney. Spoke Josh Kraushaar, Hotline, re the tortured Electoral College map for the Obama re-elect campaign. In 2008, Obama won a landslide of 365 Electoral votes. Remarks by Jim Messina at Chicago suggest that the Obama camp will concede many of the big states it won in 2008, from IA, IN OH, and PA to FL. Instead, the Obama camp will fight to hold on to VA and NC as well as CO and NV. Also, the Obama camp will not fight for NH. In all, the Obama re-elect believes it cannot win the white working class that has been the rock bed of the romance of the Democrats since the New Deal. And what will the re-elect substitute to win NC and VA? Am told the idea is to attract the white-collar, educated upper classes around the big cities and universities. Am told that the Obama re-elect does not believe it needs the private union base. Am told that the POTUS Obama ventures into Pennsylvania are not a sincere effort, and that Joe Biden will be used to hold the fort to attract cash and enthusiasm in media markets in OH, PA and FL.

Cain Train at the Reassessment Station.

Spoke Salena Zito, PTR, and Lara Brown, author, re the Herman Cain troubles anew, and who is likely to gain in IA and NH from a possible Cain withdrawal? Salena Zito remarks that Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will gain in IA; Lara Brown points to a gain for Michele Bachmann. The final arbiter will be NH. The Cain support in SC and FL looks abandoned without an easy choice. Another correspondent, a Reagan and Bush administration professional, believes that Gingrich's campaign is catching fire with conservatives on the issue of electability. My doubts on Gingrich start with the fact that he has no organization in IA, NH, SC, or FL to speak of and barely keeps a staff. Unusual form of national campaigning. There is also the possibility that Mitt Romney is the luckiest candidate since Bill Clinton, 1992.

Borderland POTUS Trapped

By John Batchelor on November 28, 2011 12:18 AM | 4 Comments

Predictable bad news on the Durand Line, the AfPak borderland, as threat and coutherthreat and ultimatum and apology and round up the usual suspects follow from the hot-pursuit shoot by ISAF/NATO against a frontier outpost that killed more than two dozen and wounded plenty. The Pakistani word for the shoot is "unprovoked." Full TV military funerals followed. Islamabad plays high cards by closing the freight routes overland to Afghanistan and by demanding the shutdown of the Shamsi Airbase within days. This threatens the drone ops. What is the big picture? Speaking Bill Roggio, Arif Rafiq, Rufus Phillips, Monday 28, re the damage. Pakistan has moved slowly into the Gulf camp and even more quickly into the PRC camp. South Asia in play. The Obama administration inherited a bad hand and played it to lose. The surprise irony of the 21st century is that when you get it wrong, you can't get out. Afghanistan will land on the new president's plate on Inauguration Day 2013. The puzzle today for POTUS Obama is that he has come to rely on the drones. The Bin Laden strike was a drone strike with boots to fill in the part that made it personal from Uncle Sam. POTUS resembles what the great master spy amateur Churchill came to represent, a man who cannot live or perform without access to the "jewels" of spycraft. The borderland is where Obama triumphed. The borderland is what Obama cannot solve, or when. Trapped by the drones.

Dumpty Deutschland Planet

By John Batchelor on November 25, 2011 12:20 PM | 24 Comments

The trouble with Greece is that the euro cannot withstand the wrangling of the 17 Eurozone states mixed with the loud disdain of the 27 European Union States (and Brussels); and that all unhappy families favor melodrama. In this scenario, Greece was the drama queen until it was replaced by Italy, and now Rome is the fat lady who cannot much sing. The opera has many acts to go. The ECB is the agreed-upon solution; however, the ECB is not the Fed, cannot print money without the permission of all the electorates; and the Germans know, however it is tricked up, that they will be paying for Greece and Italy and the other PIIGS's profligacy. Angela Merkel waves her finger of scorn for all of her people, and for the survival of her coalition. Again, what to make of the strange irony that Germany is the only savior that the Allies of Britain and France can speak of? What does it matter to NY and DC? The European recession is a poor backdrop for US recovery. Also, the manufacturing base for exports in Asia is contracting quickly, not only in China but also in Japan and Korea, which depend upon their exports to China so that China can export to the US and Europe. A mud ball planet of troubles. Eight European governments have now changed hands since the 2008 financial crisis, and the French government of Sarkozy believes it is next. The US elections are in a long line of out with the old boss, in with the new boss. The Obama administration did not start this cascade; and it is likely that it was never going to answer the troubles; and now the Obama administration is increasingly unlikely to withstand the cascade. The Keynesianism of 2009 in retrospect looks sentimental, cultish, the result of fighting the last war cockily; and mention again that it was arms profiteering from 1938-39 that pushed the US out of the manufacturing depression; and the agricultural demand by Europe that moved farm prices 1939-41 -- nothing much to do with the NRA or the stimulus packages such as they were in 1933-36. Roll back the video to winter 2006-7. Would Obama have been nominated and elected without the credit fail that started in February 2007? Unknown. However, it is generally true that weak governments follow illogically and magically (as in delusionally) from global economic instability. There is no zone that is confident; there is no trading bloc that looks strong into 2012. Humpty-Dumpty time, not for domestic reasons, but for the global trend. Boom, bust, fail and war-fighting, the new four horsemwn.

Note: Merkel Says Punish the Rascals.

From the Telegraph: Germany unmoved by French pleas for more ECB action

Ms Merkel instead used a three-way summit with France and Italy in Strasbourg to insist that new treaty powers to intervene and punish sinner states remained the key focus of Europe's rescue efforts. She said: "The countries who don't keep to the stability pact have to be punished - those who contravene it need to be penalised. We need to make sure this doesn't happen again."

How many 2011 Humpty-Dumpty characters remain on the wall at the close of 2012 (and who is gone already)?

Joad Rising

By John Batchelor on November 24, 2011 1:53 AM | 41 Comments

Bruce Springsteen, who is surely a 1%, lends his style to an anthem for the OWS that connects with the last time there was a spontaneous antiestablishmentarianism in the popular culture. The grinding Great Recession leaves the nation fragmented and despairing. The wealth gap is most severe in the major asset cities, such as NY, LA, DC. The OWS so far has busied itself in public places, such as parks, plazas, empty lots. It occurs that the wealthy in NY are vulnerable in restaurants, limousines, on Park Avenue. How far along will this go in PR coups? How far have you got? Billionaire Mike Bloomberg is humiliated and in retreat from the horrid PR of the Zuccotti Park raid. The facile chat from him about POTUS Obama is distraction: so was the silly arrest of a metally unstable fellow accused of Al Q activities. All Bloomberg panic mode. Bloomberg is damaged goods in his third Purchased Term. Unloved and soon to be unwise: this is a mayor who is nearly taboo - Jean Quan the Dark Side. New York does not play by easy rules. Bloomberg used the NYPD as a blunt instrument, and the police are feeling the disdain. The 1% depend upon a sense of order and privilege. It is a fragile arrangement. Will the mayor launch his battalions of NYPD against Occupy Park Avenue? You bet. Mayor Mike faces a long winter; and the spring will see Occupiers like tulips. Tom Joad rising is what Bruce Springsteen sees as clearly as the next minstrel: it will sell MP3 files and sell out venues. Fun starts pronto with Occupy Fox News. Easy subversive wit; it will entertain the pardoned and now-unemployed White House turkeys, too.

Another Thanksgiving

By John Batchelor on November 22, 2011 12:11 AM | 11 Comments

I was most pleased to be sitting with the varsity football team at the front of the old gymnasium at Lower Merion High School on Wednesday afternoon, November 22, 1963, watching the pep rally for us just two days before the big game of the season Lower Merion vs. Radnor High School, to be played at Villanova Stadium on the following Saturday. The cheerleaders were bold and gorgeous; the band was sweaty and noisy; the coach was the textbook irascible Fritz Brennan; and the easy presumption was that we would win the game after a winning season. Then the principal of the school, a ponderous, tall, unhappy man, walked up to the microphone and started with a tone that was discontinuous. I recall thinking this must be very bad news, and all I could figure was that his first words sounded as grave as a national crisis, something like a war. The statement that followed was something like, "I have an announcement to make that is upsetting news, and we think you should hear it immediately." We learned the president had been shot, and perhaps others, in Dallas, Texas. I believe we learned that the president was dead. The sound in the chamber in my memory was a collective gasp of breath in a silent cavern, sharp, eery, blunt. We were told that we were dismissed, to go to our lockers, that the school buses would be waiting for us. I recall talking with a friend of mine in the hallway, and we guessed the game would be postponed. There was also something about the Russians. Something like, if they did it, there was gonna be a war. We were fifteen. We didn't have facts or perspective. What I knew of President Kennedy was that he was young, popular and read James Bond books, which I had taken up the previous summer at Boy Scout camp -- Casino Royale -- and which I thought were exciting and also strangely upsetting about the brute glamour of the world. That may have been the kernel of my remark about the Russians. It was a long time ago, in another country, and everyone who was there that day is gone to their fates. I do recall that sharp gasp.

Fat Elvis Forever

By John Batchelor on November 21, 2011 1:40 PM | 15 Comments

The joy of political chat is that you get to re-purpose characters like Newt Gingrich into President "Fat Elvis," just as if this was a Looney Tunes workshop in the 1940s debating how to use Yosemite Sam in a PSA about the GI Bill. The Supercommittee failure of the day did not bother Newt's polling as he rises to a 24% to 20% lead on Romney. Spoke David Drucker, Salena Zito, re the caution and hesitation of members of Congress endorsing Romney. The explanation I like is that Congress is too unpopular for Romney to want endorsements. Mentioned the Kelly Ayotte embrace from NH, most significant as a Tea Party female from the 2010 Freshmen class. Also mention that I have been told by GOP members that no one who worked with Girngrich in the 1995-99 majority wants to work with him now as a presidential candidate. Newt burns bridges with style. Spoke Tagean Goddard about the Democrats dream candidate of Newt. Laughter. Newt confirms Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and likely Indiana on POTUS re-elect, pushes Obama over 300 again. Laughter.

Obama's Travels

By John Batchelor on November 20, 2011 1:21 PM | 15 Comments

Puzzlement of POTUS on the Left is well-advised.

Chris Matthews, above, in a stylized burst of promotion for his new book, the four millionth devoted to the legend of Jack Kennedy, now dwarfing every character but Robin Hood and Santa Claus, decides to score against POTUS Obama by mentioning that POTUS does not much act like a leader of men and women. The original 2007-8 bargain was, elect a rock star, and you get a rock star. Matthews complains that POTUS has not told us what he will do with a second term. An important detail. Am told by GOP ops that this concern for what Obama Unbound looks like for the second term is a major weapon for fundraising and vote-rallying. POTUS Obama may in fact be incapable of saying what he will do. POTUS got to his elevated status by letting everyone project their dreams and to-do lists and resentments on to him, as if he were a blank wall for the church social movie night. I think of the fabulous Preston Sturges's Sullivan's Travels of 1941, when our heroic super-goofball comedy director, Joel McCrea, goes in search of the real America and discovers hard times and cruelty in the still-despairing economy of the 1930s. This is before the war boom lifted GNP and employed 12 million men for the military, the ultimate in stimulus. The revelation scene in the story is what Joel McCrea's character, Sullivan, discovers in a church in Louisiana, filled with the poor and afflicted, who laugh at a Looney Tunes projected on the church wall one night. The discovery is that laughter is a philosophical triumph, and that making people laugh is genius. POTUS Obama is that church wall today. Candidate Obama understood that his party and the Independents were able to project joy onto his blankness. Matthews understands that it doesn't work this time. The fact of the Obama blankness is an ordinary, dogmatic, uninspiring, progressive Democrat who employs expedience and blame-shifting just like the next guy on the Hill. Not a leader. Instead, a class-warrior from the very old school, except when he is an elitist from the very old school; and in four years of travels here and worldwide, POTUS Obama has not learned what Preston Sturges opines, that the joy of laughter is the best cure for the country; that the pious, pretentious, preaching scold of Obama is the wrong direction with the wrong tone. This is not about helping Obama the rock star on the road selling one million more records for another platinum on the wall, which is the sad remains of what Obama has always been, a promoter for Obama. This is about our missing joy.

Rocky Redux

By John Batchelor on November 19, 2011 12:42 AM | 18 Comments

Speaking with professional campaigner in re the POTUS Obama re-elect map, and it emerges that the Electoral College map is small and perilous for POTUS. Washington's received wisdom is that Obama must win one of four states: FL, NC, VA, OH. In addition, Obama must hold on to NM, NV, CO and IA. It is a daring balancing act. My informant observes that FL and NC are a bridge too far for the president. That POTUS is too unpopular to find the ground game; and the likely outcome is that the GOP House will pick up seats in NC and VA. When POTUS is matched up against Mitt Romney, the map looks worse for re-elect. Romney denies Obama NV and threatens MN and MI. Also, Romney puts NH back into play. In sum, the Obama re-elect is not being cunning when it frets about the challenge of Mitt Romney: they have cause to fear him. Romney's weakness with the GOP is that he is a Nelson Rockefeller Republican left over from the 1960s, a liberal, moderate, counter-ideological, managerial office-holder. Rocky Redux. No big concepts; no principles before success. This is objectionable to about half the GOP. There are only a handful of GOP House seats left from New Jersey to Maine, and the two senators in Maine are fair-weather Conservatives. The GOP base, demonstrably loyal to Ronald Reagan, is now faced with campaigning for and electing another George H. W. Bush over a POTUS who makes Michael Dukakis appear grounded.

Bat-Occupy

By John Batchelor on November 18, 2011 2:47 AM | 39 Comments

Occupy Wall Street was boosted immensely by the world-scale cleverness of a young man, Mark Read, who organized a Bat-signal on the side of the Verizon building in New York using a borrowed, expensive piece of equipment, a 12K-lumen projector. The team handed out fliers at a low-income high-rise across from the Verizon wall, and a young single mother with three children, Denise Vega, offered her apartment. Product, success and joy. The NYPD figured out where the projections were coming from, but did not interfere. A work of genius, grace, grit, New York perfection.

San Francisco Sun Valley.

Meantime, Jeff Bliss, Bliss Index, reports that San Francisco authority will likely move in tandem with Cal Berkeley and Oakland to sweep through and reorganize the Occupier encampments. The Occupiers can and will rally at will on occasions, and the rallying tools of social media make the next phase unpredictable. The authorities may weigh interrupting wifi and phone services in order to control the flow at large events. The encampments may rise again in less-public places, where the private owners grant permission for the enterprise. The underlying ironies persist. Grotesque income inequality in the US is part of the problem, not part of the solution. The tax code means that less than half of the population pays income tex, while 100% of the citizenry is subject to sales tax, excise tax, property tax, fees. There is a goofy disequilibrium in the news. The aging supercelebrity Bruce Willis's Hollywood bauble of a $15 million Sun Valley ranch now on the market makes the point again that a democracy struggles to account for the fruits of crony capitalism for the 1% and fear of joblessness and homelessness for the 99%. "We're winning!"

Occupy Valley Forge

By John Batchelor on November 16, 2011 12:00 AM | 15 Comments

Competitive use of the "Occupy" trope with young Occupiers attending a speech in Baltimore in order to heckle Karl Rove. The Rove remarks are too soft to hear, since the video is handheld construction by a protester; however, the harassment segment is plenty of volume and colorful. Rove is skillful to blast back. The surprise is the use of "Occupy." Calling Rove the architect of "Occupy Iraq" and "Occupy Afghanistan" is cunning and not all together futile. For young people, born 1990 and afterward, the world of want and war and disappointment is a puzzle and a curse. I agree with their solution to curse back and to declare a pox on all your political maneuvering. What do they care of taxes and entitlements when they are yet to satisfy the deans or find a job of some merit? Force, disdain, indifference, influence -- none of those weapons is effective against the young or with the young. These young voices are what we have of our legacy. Once, I was a young voice against the Southeast Asia wars, and I was disregarded and mocked and shamed by the adults of Washington and New York; and where are they now, those lords of 1968? Nixon, McNamara, Westmoreland, Laird, Johnson, Thieu, Brezhnev, Zumwalt, Agnew, Rockefeller. Gone, and their memories are spoiled by the facts of those years, their bloody-minded expedience to win elections by boasting and pointing to the past as a proof. Neither party, no politician, is well positioned enough to be deaf to young complaints. Bloomberg of the 0.0000001% is wrong to bully and intimidate the young and have so little to show for his decision. Winter, and the winds of Nor'easters and blizzards, would have emptied Zuccotti Park in another month. Now, it becomes the rallying cry like Valley Forge. Folly for the mayor and folly for the police. Beefy, inarticulate, aggressive, aimless, directing their energy against children who only mean to represent their understanding of assembly and protest and dissent.

Occupy Bloomberg

By John Batchelor on November 15, 2011 1:55 AM | 24 Comments

Spoke David Drucker, John Avlon, Taegan Goddard, re the GOP arranging itself for the push to the 2012 election, and we touched upon the prospect of a wave election that may push across Republicans to control of the Senate to match the control of the House after the 2010 wave election. The GOP looks strong for pickup in the Senate races in Nebraska, North Dakota, Missouri; and the GOP has strong chances in Virginia, Ohio and Montana. The lone race that looks strong for a flip for the Democrats is Massachusetts, which is why this will become a centerpiece for both parties. Scott Brown's surprising win of 2010 set off the healthcare fiasco for the Democrats. Elizabeth Warren represents the aggressive thinking of the Democratic liberal base.

1 AM ET Bloomberg Raid on #OWS.

The contest looks to turn on small events. Will Occupy Wall Street be such an event? Word late tonight from Tweetdeck that the Mayor has ordered NYPD to sweep out Zuccotti Park. Reports of batons, pepper spray, force and rough play, with additional police requested. This is the sort of incident, when combined with a similar sweep in Oakland (spoke earlier with Jeff Bliss, Ying Ma) that makes for a national grievance for Election Day. The 2012 contest presents a case for melodrama. Puzzle is how POTUS Obama can arrange his campaign to look like a Washington outsider who's challenging the power of Wall Street. It will be a strange construction to have the president, a Harvard Law professor, representing the aggrieved and anarchic. Right now, the NYPD may be overplaying its hand; and the mayor has now risked the enmity of the young and focused. Strange to have a multi-billionaire mayor, lord of the .00000001%, deciding to abuse the young with the longest memories and social media skills to make Bloomberg into a class joker.

What Newt Knew

By John Batchelor on November 13, 2011 11:37 PM | 13 Comments

The joy in Mudville is that Newt Gingrich is at bat, and it's the bottom of the first inning, and here comes ball three. There are more farcical players in the GOP canvas -- Arnold Schwarzenegger comes to mind -- but there is no more beloved buffoon in the GOP since Harold Stassen's last hurrah. Even Stassen was semi-serious once upon a time until that last run for governor in Pennsylvania. What Newt knew, when he started his windbag tour of the campaign back in the spring, then took a vacation while his senior staff deserted to Rick Perry, was that eventually the rest of the dreary field would outlive its welcome and the aging base would come to choosing the grand old man of 1994 for a last dance. Gingrich's candidacy guarantees an Obama re-election, barring an asteroid wiping out California, which is not probable. What's not to like with Gingrich? Other than blowhard, bore, egoist, and self-infatuated blabbermouth, there is the issue of his backward-looking politics of revanchism. Any day now, Gingrich is going to outtalk Bill Clinton and triumph in the midyear election of 1998. It would be funny. As nominee, Newt would start a press conference on Labor Day and not dismiss the media until Christmas, regardless of the election outcome. Love the notion of rooting for Newt. Loving the unlovable is an admired skill. The election would turn on deeply Monty Python moments, such as Newt explaining the future with the metaphors of the Civil War battles he cares about.

Fall and Fall of Mr. Perry

By John Batchelor on November 11, 2011 1:38 PM | 31 Comments

The brouhaha of Rick Perry's minor and uncritical lapse in the Michigan debate is not the end of Rick Perry's campaign for the nomination. The Perry campaign has the money and the talent it can lease to continue into January and February with the organization and ads to score well in the primary states. The noise about the debate error in Michigan is mostly about the registration of group disappointment by the GOP conservative base that Rick Perry is not working as the anti-Romney. Rick Perry is mortal and has much to learn about national campaigning. Training on the job is most difficult when you must compete immediately at the same time in a zero-sum game with a veteran who aims for the same goal as you do. Therefore, Rick Perry, the perfect Stop Romney, has failed, and is now replaced by Rick Perry the Newbie, who has not failed and cannot fail. The fall of Rick Perry is another consideration. The governor fell from grace the moment he stepped on the field in Iowa and projected confidence and certainty that he could not back up on the debate stage. The second fall of Rick Perry started when he did not have answers to the question no one can answer: where are the jobs? No one can answer this puzzle, and it was Perry's miscalculation to permit the GOP to imagine that the man from Texas could answer. Could Rick Perry reawaken his march on the nomination? Sure. How? Unknown, which is why we hold primary elections on a certain date at a certain place -- anything is possible at that moment, including an (improbable) Romney fall, too.

From Russia with Game

By John Batchelor on November 10, 2011 2:44 PM | 10 Comments

What happens next is not obvious, because the Great Game is afoot. The formula looks simpler than it is to play. Washington backs Ankara to use NATO air cover to invade Syria. Iran is then expected to hesitate and make back-channel deals with Washington for a Grand Bargain. The set-up for this Grand Bargain is the Obama administration's decision to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan and permit Tehran to dominate the region. Riyadh is occupied fully with succession of the aged, ill, and partly lunatic regime. Cairo is consumed by internal squabbles and the search for True Piety. What of Russia? Russia's nixing of more UN sanctions on Iran is meant to play good cop/bad cop against Tehran. China will cooperate with anybody and is incapable of genuine conflict, just palm-greasing and back-scratching and the usual under-the-table shenanigans. What of Israel? Jerusalem is supposed to obey Washington. This is the Great Game, so there are several unknowns. Ankara (Erdogan) fears that Obama will lose in less than 12 months, and this means that the time for action is spring to summer 2012, and not later. Obama is playing for legacy in case he loses. What can go wrong with the Grand Bargain? Syria sees the game and is not ready to play everyone's goat.

Ugly Falls

By John Batchelor on November 9, 2011 12:01 AM | 15 Comments

The Penn State scandal darkens the lives of hundreds of thousands of people who have known and admired Joe Paterno once upon a time and cannot now explain his error of judgment with regard the alleged crime of a subordinate in the athletic program. The details are sketchy and appalling. The questions are a mountain compared to the few explanations so far. Am told by my engineer Christopher Netter, Penn State '08, that there are thousands on campus right now most angry at the university president for the administration's mishandling of the facts at least since 2002 and the original alleged assault.

Cain.

In comparison to the nightmare at Penn State, and the severe damage to the victims we know about so far, the Herman Cain melodrama is a broken teapot tempest. The Cain declarations of the last days that he was "back on message" turned out to be hooey and bravado. Now Cain plunges into the he-said/she-said/she-said/she-said; and who can keep score? The process rules. Cain's candidacy is wounded, and in the chase for the nomination, no wound is useful. The tell-tale sign of a sagging candidate is the strange twist that he favors the third person willy-nilly. The blame-shifting to the "Democrat machine" is feeble. More noise coming, as the latest is a professional woman, Karen Kraushaar, in Washington who will speak of Cain's behavior at the NRA. Can Cain be the Comeback Kid by scoring well in the Iowa caucus? Unlikely. Spoke Larry Kudlow, Bill Whalen, Doug Schoen, re the Mitt Romney candidacy, and there is general acknowledgement that Romney performs well on a muddy track. Cain is yet to show he can go the distance.

"Smokin' Joe" Frazier Goes Out on an Asteroid

By John Batchelor on November 8, 2011 2:47 AM | 4 Comments

The passing of asteroid 2005 YU55 at the death of "Smokin' Joe" Frazier brings out the medieval superstitious in me -- the heavens signal the passing of kings and the approach of war. Frazier is a champion out of my youth; the three epic bouts between Muhammed Ali and Joe Frazier between 1971 and October 1, 1975, defined an era of worldwide recession, US failure in Southeast Asia and the launching of the cyber generation from Silicon Valley. The "Thrilla in Manila" dominated New York radio for days before and after the 14-round technical KO by Ali. (The Joe Frazier towel was thrown in the 14th round.) Mention that the Manila dictator and fool Ferdinand Marcos welcomed the fight in order to divert attention from his misrule. Ali's poetry was all in tribute to himself and his rival: "It's gonna be a thrilla, and a chilla, and a killa, when I get the Gorilla in Manila."

Great Game, Episode Damascus

By John Batchelor on November 6, 2011 9:01 PM | 17 Comments

The puzzle for 2012 is how far the Obama administration will push the major contest between the neo-Ottomans at Ankara and the neo-Mahdists at Tehran. The debate has now moved from, does Tehran have nukes, to, how many nukes and how soon? The IAEA revelation of Tehran's weapons program ends years of righteous, appeasing palaver about diplomatic solutions.

In its report, Reuters cites sources stating that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has obtained satellite pictures of a large steel container for carrying out tests with high explosives that could be used in nuclear weapons. The images of the site at Parchin, near Tehran, and other evidence lend credence to allegations by IAEA member states that the installation was intended for nuclear-related explosives testing.

The hidden nukes are the casus belli. What comes next is the slow walk to ultimatums between Ankara and Damascus, between Tehran and Jerusalem, between Washington and Moscow. This will heat up in March and April. The formula is for NATO to support Turkey's arming of a Syrian Transitional National Council, with headquarters in the borderland. NATO's air cover will flatten Assad's armor. The Moslem Brothers at Homs and Homa provide the energy for the rising. The two critical cities are Aleppo and Damascus: if they rise, then the Assad regime is falling. The Assads have threatened to launch barrages of missiles on Israel, enough to seal off Ben Gurion airport. Does Israel have a defense? The last week saw air and land exercises for a launch on Tehran's nukes. There are likely sea and undersea exercises ongoing as well. The Obama administration is in the ceremonial stage of "all options are on the table."

What is to be done?

The domestic drama in the US will play out in slow motion. Tehran's fixed opinion is that the US is incoherent during a presidential election. In 2004, Tehran pressed the attack in Iraq and lit up the Zarqawi lot in Anbar while working to dominate with the Sadrists. Tehran fights now to retain its empire from Damascus to Beirut. The US is weakened by the regional civil wars; the Obama decision is to withdraw the major combat units from two theaters already lost to Tehran and Riyadh. The puzzle is, what will Turkey do? The neo-Ottomans have this peculiar window. Russia has a big say. The Great Game, Episode Damascus. Does POTUS Obama have the weight to support Jerusalem and NATO with strikes on Tehran and ground action in Syria? Unknown. Odds for a confrontation before the spring? Unknown. All hands on deck. Obama is a gamer, and he likes to pull the trigger - shoot - at the buzzer. Why does POTUS spend more time on the phone with Turkey PM Erdogan than any other world leader? Poetry?

Sunday Hearts Herman

By John Batchelor on November 5, 2011 12:14 AM | 13 Comments

Politico measures the expectation that the Cain campaign can maneuver through the Sunday cables/networks and learns that the chance is nil. Herman Cain ducking the questions is not a solution, and neither is the campaign's inability to tell a consistent story. The offer-then-retraction of Mrs. Cain was foolishness. This panel of Sunday hosts is not a minor detail with 60 days to Iowa. Does Cain boycott TV interviews? Does TV boycott Cain? TV does know Cain is a ratings winner. Cain has the FNC shows to lean on, but that is not the same as getting through the primary dances. What's the worst that can happen? The major newspapers will keep on the story with reserve, but the next level will be the online pundit magazines and the insider websites that will work the credibility of Cain and his unusual campaign chief, Mark Block. The GOP polls show Cain with a 25% loyal grouping. The Cain campaign has averaged a mistake every two days. Can the campaign get through the Sunday Great Wall of Scolding? What is worse than hounding or pounding? Derision and tsk-tsking and scolding.

Thin

By John Batchelor on November 4, 2011 2:38 AM | 52 Comments

The GOP is off its narrative, but spoke with Taegan Goddard, Mary Kissel, David Drucker, that the party will abide. The Cain tale wears thin and will pass. What comes from this brouhaha? Iowa on January 3; New Hampshire on January 10. The polls are Cain. His sympathy vote is very high. Then we will move on. What did we learn? That the GOP is vulnerable to palaver just like the Democrats, and that an amateur is as charming the first time as he or she ever will be. The pros just grind it out and finish the game.

Occupy Cain

By John Batchelor on November 3, 2011 12:01 AM | 12 Comments

Attention to Occupy Oakland and the General Strike this evening with Jeff Bliss, Debra Saunders, Larry Johnson, concerned that the Occupiers can easily be pre-empted by troublemakers and/or anarchists -- as is the case in Rome and Athens during large street demos. Meanwhile, back in Washington, the Cain campaign manager, Mark Block, took to Fox to accuse a former Cain op (from the 2004 Georgia Senate campaign) of leaking the harassment suit scandal to Politico. The op, Kurt Andersen, who now works for Rick Perry, denies the charge. Additional suggestions about Cain from the AP (a third woman) and from a Des Moines, Iowa, radio show (a recent incident) suggest that Cain cannot get out of this with his defiance and derision of the accusers. There may be another way. The question is the polling. Can Cain get through the weekend shows? Can Cain survive the Sunday panels? Can Mark Block provide evidence when he makes the next round of accusations? Is this the politics of farce? Back to Occupy Oakland for neat endings.

He said; she said; she said.

By John Batchelor on November 1, 2011 1:58 AM | 13 Comments

Spoke John Avlon, Taegan Goddard, Salena Zito re the Herman Cain scandal with regard allegations of sexual harassment settled by the National Restaurant Association when Cain was CEO. Cain started the day denying what he generally admitted to by the end of the day. We agreed that the story continues again tomorrow, and that Cain cannot now make a campaign appearance without the drip-drip-drip of questions. There is loose talk that Mrs. Cain will make an appearance. The narrative is familiar. Cain was running smart and fast until he hit the wall of equivocating on a gotcha question. This is Potomac Fever, and it shoots prisoners. Open question as to whose oppo research unearthed the Cain problems. Also, note that there are two women. This isn't, He said, she said. This is, They said, he said. And there are likely more accusations coming, and the next ones do not have a high bar. Has Cain peaked in the polls? Read the following banalities from the candidate and puzzle how long Cain can avoid the facts.

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Pre-taped interview with Herman Cain during his day in Washington, PBS NewsHour's Judy Woodruff asked him about the detail of an allegation of inappropriate behavior in the 1990s taking place at a hotel where an NRA event took place.

"Did any one of these women, were they ever asked to meet you, or - ?" she asked.

'That I absolutely do not recall. You know, I have no recollection of that," Cain said.

"Was there any behavior on your part that you think might have been inappropriate?" she asked.

"In my opinion, no," he said. "But as you would imagine, it's in the eye of the person who thinks that maybe I crossed the line."

In his interview with Fox News' Greta Van Susteren, according to POLITICO's Juana Summers, Cain didn't recall being deposed by a lawyer for the woman in question, or one connected to the NRA. He said he was cleared of the allegations but couldn't remember by whom.

"I don't recall by whom the charges were found baseless. I don't remember if it was by attorneys getting together. I don't remember if we had outside attorneys. I can't tell you how they were determined by being baseless," he said.

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