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Right-Sized Romney

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Asked Salena Zito if Mitt Romney owns an IPhone or a Smartphone. Answer: unknown, however he never shows such a device in his hands to photos. The reason the Romney campaign stumbled last Friday at the Detroit event is because it did not consider what an empty stadium would look like behind the Romney stage to anyone using a simple IPhone cam to send the shot around the world on Twitter and Flickr.  Is Team Romney in our century?  A correspondent writes that the Secret Service ordered the venue. Seems strange to start blaming the Secret Service this early. The Romney campaign looks as awkward and tin-earred as the candidate. Spoke David Drucker, Zito and Lara Brown, also Taegan Goddard; and no one is impressed by the Romney campaign's closing argument. Elect me, I will blame the Secret Service (or, fill-in-the-blank)?  Late breaking poll shows Santorum regaining lead in MI.  Taegan Goddard reminds that 15% of the vote already cast as absentee --during the FL nomination contest.   This means that Santorum must play mighty catch-up in the open to all primary.  Late word from the last PPP poll has Santorum back in the lead,  Would Democrats vote for Santorum in order to frustrate Romney?  Yep  (As I recall there was noise in 2008 about Republican voters in MI voting for Senator Obama over Senator Clinton?)  Then again, there is the right-sized tree remark, a credit to Romney's special sense of what to say in public about why he likes MI.

Update: Noon on Tuesday 28: Reports from several sources in MI say that Democrats are voting in the big cities, and likely voting for Santorum.  Romney quoted saying that the Santorum robo-call to Democrats to ask for their vote was a dirty trick.  Michael Moore gleefully promoting Operation Hilarity.  Exit polls may show how many Democrats are voting, especially in Detroit.

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Syria Brief: Grim Landscape

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Briefed these hours on the Syria scenario. Rough business. The Obama administration (POTUS personally) is backing the Moslem Brothers at 1000%. Brothers out of Cairo and other capitals are running the Homs/Hama provocation operation. Assad regime aiming to shut down the Brothers pronto before NATO/US/Turkey intervention. The Brothers are running psyops with pictures of massacre and so forth.  Understand that Assad left in power (commanding the minorities of the region: Alawites, Druze, Kurds, Christians) is the expedient answer for Amman, Jerusalem, Moscow.  Tehran is not losing.  Assume pronto that the nuke arms race  in the region is underway.  Secretary Clinton denouncing Assad places the US opposite the Kremlin.  Russian ops already in country and advising the operations.  Report of a French anti-tank missile used in the street-fighting.  Weapons running with Riyadh money.  Prince of Darkness (Sultan, heir to the throne) is in charge of the gun-running.  Riyadh is struggle for its life.  Tehran runs the Gulf oil future.   POTUS Obama?  His delusion in the Moslem Brothers means that he may vouchsafe a UN/NATO "protect" operation.  POTUS hangs on to the hero dream that he can deliver Tehran to the table the way Nixon delivered Beijing in 1972.  Legacy dream is driving POTUS.  Moscow stands to be the winner in a grim forecast.  Israel will not move on Tehran, since it assumes the nukes are in Supreme Leader's hand.  Jerusalm looks to use IDF in a Six Day war op to close Gaza missile arsenals.  No sound answers unless and until Assad the Devil prevails, and the White House backs off supporting an intervention.

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Wobbly and Squirmy

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The Obama re-elect is showing hesitation about the price of gasoline. While Mitt Romney thrashes and stumbles, the Obama numbers are wobbly. What is to be done? The White House starts the strange narrative (above) that the energy struggle will require years of policy and industrial rebuilding. This may be part of the "Built to Last" trope. It is weak soup. The squirmy Romney behavior in Detroit, the "two Cadillacs" line (below), again introduces the real possibility that Romney cannot stand up to the demands of a modern campaign.  The transparency means that we can see and hear that Romney is uncomfortable as a salesman of a false narrative (he speaks beseechingly as if we are bout to shut the door on his foot).  Romney is not and never was anything that was "severely conservative."  Romney's politics are convenient to the moment and the bottom line of corporate management.  Ergo, he has no recognizable politics other than driving the quarterly results and producing dollars per share in time for the deal.  Romney is the deal.  Facing the rhetorical and intuitive Rick Santorum, Romney presents himself as a better deal maker surrounded by a phalanx of arrogant and well-to-do ops.  Romney cannot do and never will do ideology or vision. On the other hand,POTUS Obama cannot do and never will do results.  The American condition, two ambitious men, no good choice, wobbly vs. squirmy.  At a reunion event, a colleague asked me about the exoplanets that we will find that will be called "New Edens" (Earth-sized, rocky and wet, habitable zone of a G-Type): he asked, "Perhaps we can find a candidate also."  My colleague did not reference the GOP or the nomination contest; however the room knew what he meant and smiled ironically regardless of partisanship. 


 
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"Did I sound crazy enough?"

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Charlie Chaplain's "The Great Dictator" created a story line on the Hitlerites that succeeds to this day. What is tyranny but farce turned homicidal rage? The actor Sacha Baron Cohen presents this vignette of his new creation Admiral General Aladeen in order to mock both the pretensions of the laughless comedy of Hollywood and the tragedy of the dictatorships that are now in mass murder mode in the Middle East and Africa. How can the US State not break down laughing at the wardrobe of the Devils? Quadhaffi outdressed Hollywood, and it is a puzzle now if the Quadhaffi self-mockery was genuine or an attempt to disarm the West?  ("Did I sound crazy enough?")  The Devils are unacceptable not because they are specially bad but because they are ordinarily bad and yet no one stops them until way too late because of the superstition surrounding sovereignty.  The Tunis meeting by foreign ministers of the coalition of the pompous aims to discuss what is to be done about the Assad regime.  The easy answer is what worked in Libya -- whomp it till it stops moving.  There is a war-warning out.  Soon, Springtime in the desert and bombs for breakfast, from Sinai to Bekaa, from the Gulf to the Med.  Thankfully, we have Sacha Baron Cohen to make sense of the useful madness of Tripoli, Cairo, Damascus, Tehran, Riyadh, and Charlie Chaplain to nod our heads and consider how many hundreds of thousands of innocent, cheerful people of Europe and America and Asia both enjoyed the Chaplain wit and then perished in the mass murders of the Devils.

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Cheerful

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Newt Gingrich wins the Arizona debate without even breaking stride, and it is thrilling to consider that Mr. Gingrich will now enjoy another come-back in the race.  Mitt Romney's didactic management style has merit.  Rick Santorum's punching way over his weight class and good on him.  Ron Paul is a treat with his craggy caution. Newt Gingrich wins with he guile and delight.  Newt calls himself, "Cheerful," and who can disagree?  Romney's fight to survive in MI may keep him in the race, however Gingrich's relentless skill at staying in the game is itself the measure of a leader.  President Gingrich?  Sure.  Of the four of them, he has the clearest hold on opera and a vision of what the planet expects from America, glory.

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Mr. Lucky

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James Carville is most witty with Don Imus re POTUS opponents so far in the Republican nomination contest, arguing that POTUS is Mr. Lucky to have the Republican race to the bottom to watch.  Spoke Larry Kudlow, CNBC, re the Romney camp and learned that there is no small despair for Romney if he does not win MI convincingly.   Romney rolling out a new new tax plan that will surprise and delight supply-siders with across the board reductions and spending cuts for entitlements.  Is is enough this close to the vote?  Unknown.  Santorum prospers with attention, even the colorful sort about Satan and theology and other hobbies.  The GOP delegate math suggests this campaign continues well into May.  Kudlow argues that Romney must win MI to stay alive.  What does winning your birth state accomplish?  Survival?  Victory?  There is hard news ahead for Lucky POTUS.  Gallup poll suggests the jobless rate will spike toward 9% when reported next week.  The economy is stronger, but is the economy sturdy enough for the re-election?  Romney wants to be the accountant-in-chief.  Obama wants to raise taxes (he cannot) and lecture the TV audience.  Not much of a choice.  Santorum just wants to preach science fiction scenarios.  This makes me favor Santorum, though I am drifting more and more to the wry Newt Gingrich and the droll Ron Paul.  If you can't win with your vote, you can be entertained by the passing parade (see Ford's parade from 1958 below).

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Romney at the Ritz

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"The president has reached a new low in this country's history of oppressing religious freedom that we have never seen before," Rick Santorum remarks, according to NBC News. "If he doesn't want to call his imposition of his values a theology that's fine, but it is an imposition of his values over a church who has very clear theological reasons for opposing what the Obama administration is forcing on them."  What states can Santorum win?  Not PA.  TX?   

Romney the common touch.

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Meanwhile, found the amazing tweet tonight from Joshua Green on the Romney campaign choice of luxury hotels for the months of January.  It is stupefying.  Romney the man of the people; Romney the common touch; Romney the clueless.  Was putting on the Ritz not available for a campaign vacation?  

Empire Hotel (New York, NY) "The 422 richly appointed guest rooms at The Empire Hotel represent a new standard in New York City boutique hotel accommodations. Each room combines the earth tones from Central Park and the dignified modernism of Lincoln Center to provide effortlessly sophisticated comfort."


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Michigan Firewall

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The puzzle is if the Rick Santorum support in MI and OH is the beginnings of a wave to block Mitt Romney on the first ballot until May? June? August? There is a "prominent GOP senator" game afoot. The whisper name is "Jeb Bush." Do you believe it? The more Romney stumbles, the more it is possible that the party will not cohere around Romney. And the assumption is that Santorum would lose at least 35 states. Solution? Not clearly.  And if Romney makes an amazing comeback and wins MI, what does this prove?  That Romney can win a depressed turnout in a blue state where he grew up as the son of the governor?  See the Romney family Detroit tear-down below: irony or archival factoid?

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Last Days of the GOP: Cave Chic

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Tired of watching the president claim the mantle of middle-class protector, the Republicans in Congress caved in on the payroll-tax extension vote.

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"It's a done deal," a member of the House Republican leadership told me of the payroll-tax extension agreementnegotiated between the Republican House and the Senate Democrats. "Nobody cares. That's it." 

I pressed on the details of how the Republican-led House had transformed itself from last December, when it fought the White House and the Democrats over the same deal, insisting that it had to be paid for by cuts in spending and that it could not include more pork such as unemployment extensions.... (MORE)


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Santorum Leading Incoherence

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Mitt Romney left Michigan for Ohio tonight, perhaps in response to the new Rasmussen poll that shows Rick Santorum leading 42 to 24 in the Buckeye State for the March 6 vote. In MI, Santorum is only in a statistical tie with Romney, leading 34 to 30. Spoke Matt Viser, Boston Globe on the trail in MI, and he reports that Romney is not changing his unimaginative style despite the poor polls. Still the clever accountant, still speaking of POTUS Obama and not of Satorum, still even tempered and didactic. No fire, no opera. Lara Brown, Villanova, asserts that Romney will lets his SpuerPac do the attacking on Santorum. Salena Zito, PTR, shows me a clipping from 1990, when young Santorum was not yet the hardliner on contraception and abortion.  Santorum's peculiar remarks about female sexuality suggest he is capable of wandering off the road for a dive into incoherence.  Then again, Romney is spending days explaining his 2008 NYT op-ed saying that Detroit should drop dead ("bankruptcy").  Spoke to member of Congress who opines that if Romney is the nominee, he can relax and watch the party just lose.  But if Santorum is the nominee (below at the Detroit Economic Forum), he will need a new job.  And if Gingrich is the nominee, he will need a new sense of proportion.  Is this a race to the bottom?

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Sweating Xi Jinping

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Meet the new boss, same as the old boss, Xi Jinping, who called at the White House and the Pentagon in order to demonstrate that he was up to the task of taking command of the PRC's aging CP for the next ten years. POTUS Obama greeted Xi with mechanical ceremony. There were protesters representing Tibet, the Falun Gong, and labor. Xi ignored the obvious, that he represents a troubled ancient land of tragedy and tyranny for which is he is ordinarily inadequate to lead. Xi lacks legitimacy, popularity, flexibility, even authority. Xi is shackled to a cranky gang of thieves -- the CP membership of some 60 millions -- who cannot control the future and cannot risk talking about the past.  China claims it is a "peaceful rising" power.  It is a failed state until and if accepts democracy and moves into the transition to a state for law and order and transparency. The fears that China's authoritarian capitalism will supplant liberal democracy is hooey.  Xi is a princeling -- their version of a manor based heir -- and he has spent his 58 years enjoying his status.  It is odd to concern ourselves with China to the near exclusion of India, Russia and Brazil.  We have off-shored our consumer manufacturing to China the last twenty years and gained no particular advantage for it.  Xi does not command a balanced economy: it is entirely dependent upon the export model that has peaked.  Heavy and robot manufacturing will return to the US or move to more agreeable economies.  The labor abuses in China (see Apple's Tim Cook sweating the sweatshop allegations at Foxconn) will mitigate its domination.  Xi does not know how to create a domestic economy: China build IPads, but it cannot build a consumer class to but the product.

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Flak Jacket Rick

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Paul Gigot and Dan Henninger, WSJ, discuss the impending wave of negative campaign ads bought by Mitt Romney SuperPac and aimed at Rick Santorum in Michigan.  Flak jacket time for Rick.  The election is February 28, the same day as Arizona. However because of the LDS population in AZ, the emphasis is all on MI, where Mr. Romney also enjoys a childhood connection as the son of a popular former governor. Santorum is now leading comfortably in two polls in MI, and Lara Brown tells me that the Evangelical population of MI is committed to Santorum. Taegan Goddard reasons that the explanation for the fact that Romney's first negative ad in MI is directed at Gingrich is because he hopes to pry away some of the Gingrich vote, believing the Santorum vote is solid anti-Romney. The Republican party is discouraged by Romney's inability to lock down the race. Is Santorum a viable national candidate? Unknown? The Romney SuperPac now goes nuke for two weeks in order to whittle Santorum down to unelectable. Santorum's record is patchy and parochia; his social issue stuff is not ready for national prime time. Santorum will be in the race at least until Pennsylvania on April 24.

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Taxing Uber

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What is not obvious is how this scale of extravagant consumption translates into the political conversation. The Anthony Pritzker fortune (LA pile below) that contributes to the LA home that appears as a New Age institute in the video, that includes a bowling alley and a toy store, what is the point of view?  Because we can?  Note that the Anthony Pritzker fortune in part is devoted to the Obama re-elect.  What does it mean that POTUS Obama preaches the millionaire surtax and that the "millionaires and billionaires" must pay "their fair share?"  White House Budget for 2013 counts on taxing the super rich, but because there are not enough of them even with surtax rates, this means taxing the families and small businesses who earn well below seven figures, and sometime who earn below $250,000.  This is draining the lake again in order to keep the creek flowing to the Federally created artificial wetlands (the Welfare Wetlands, everyone in Dismal Swamp).  What Ronald Reagan knew (Arthur Laffer and crew, called the Supply Siders) is that permanent tax cuts for everyone, across all categories, gives energy to grow the economy in all directions.  This is fundamental Milton Friedman: every dollar that government takes out of the economy tends to inhibit investment, expansion, risk-taking, consumption, even more focused Federal decisions.  The Obama administration is committed to the notion that the Federal and State governments have solutions that must be paid for by taxes on the prosperous.  The conflict is fundamental and simple.  My guess is that the Titanic houses in the above video are an expression of wealth that does not fear the progressive tax schemes.  Likely the assets are constructed like Romney's, off-shore IRAs, in tax free bonds from everywhere, in vehicles that defer income: the usual tax code gymnastics  available to the uber-ubers, and good for them.  They didn't make the world: they just deal with their version of the puzzles of class and cash.

The Anthony Pritzker home in Los Angeles is a 49,300-square-foot building designed by an architecture firm in Paris.

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Enthusiasm Not Recently

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The Obama re-elect has energy, talent, great visuals from 2008 (this mash-up is a treat of before the crash of 2008), and the incumbency -- and that is plenty to overwhelm a fractured and disconsolate GOP. The Romney campaign crack-up is undeniable even to those in the party who prosper in denial. Rick Santorum's boom is fresh and delightful; however the demands of the national campaign and the accompanying scrutiny will drain Rick Santorum of his already limited humor. Am told that Rick Santorum's nickname in high school was "Rooster." Am told that the Romney campaign will now nuke Santorum with the usual facts about his less than consistent voting recording for two terms in the Senate. Romney counts on resentment to eliminate his rivals. The Obama re-elect counts on inertia to secure 270 EV. My expectation is that the GOP will not rally to Romney because of anger. Romney needs a plan as straightforward as Ronald Reagan's: cut taxes for all, permanently, reduce federal spending 5% per year; de-regulate; communicate that Washington is not the solution to any one's problems. Intrade shows Obama re-elect at 60%, and Romney elect at 30%. Easy money on POTUS unless--  Do not expect to see enthusiasm on either side this summer and fall?  Have not seen enthusiasm recently.  Suppose we held an election and no one much showed up?

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What Mitt Means by Beachfront

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The details are unbelievable. This is Mitt Romney's $12 million dollar tear-down on the La Jolla beachfront. Does this make sense for a political actor in a grinding fight with the GOP conservatives who doubt his credentials? Or with a class warfare ace like POTUS Obama? Doe Romney think through his symbols. A tear-down in that neighborhood in the midst of the California property collapse? Okay. Why does Romney want to be president?   Why does Romney want to live on the La Jolla beachfront?  There may not be answers.  What a wonderful mystery.  Following the Rick Santorum sweep with no money to rely upon, no advertising to mention, no organization to speak of, can Romney continue to assume the nomination is his to lose? The wealthy donors who are backing Mitt Romney thus far must be growling into their speakerphones to their advisers: Is this guy a loser or what?  It is creepy that Romney doesn't figure that Obama can beat him over the head with a multi-million dollar pile of a tear-down.  What other symbols does Romney not understand about campaigning in America for the Independent vote?  Gee.

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Send a Committee To Romney

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Rick Santorum's surprise sweep of the three Republican caucuses, MN, MO, and CO, obliges the GOP to look again at Mitt Romney's inevitability. This is a punch  in the face of the status quo ante.  Spoke John Fund, NRO, who suggests that the GOP may send a committee to Mitt Romney to recommend that he address directly his inability to close the sale to the conservatives of the GOP.  Romney is not doing as well in MN as he did not 2008 when he lost to John McCain.  The party is unhappy with Romney's candidacy.  Asked Larry Kudlow, CNBC, is this an embrace of Santorum or a rejection of Romney, and he said, "That's a tough question," and then supposed it was an embrace of Santorum.  Three weeks to MI and AZ, both states where Romney should do well.  Salena Zito, PTR, believes that Romney will consolidate his lead and press on.  Lara Brown, Villanova, details that Romney scored 12% in a MN county where he scored 48% in 2008.   McKay Coppins, Buzzfeed, remarked that there are a large number of Mormons in AZ.  Santorum now has three weeks to raise money and build a national operation.  Is Santorum the conservative savior?  Unknown.

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Where the Consumers are

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Evan Newmark worries about consumer spending with witty Spencer Jakab. POTUS re-elect needs the consumer to get involved in the recovery. This will increase the growth of wholesale jobs, transportation and manufacturing jobs, that we saw in the January jobs numbers.  The housing crush remains the unknown.  Watching consumer sentiment also, because it moved down for January, from 64 back down to 61.  Wrong direction.  The virtuous circle is when the sentiment follows the jobs growth follows the spending follows the Spring.  Spoke to John Avlon and Taegan Goddard re the ABC/WaPo poll that shows Obama gaining again among independents over the likely Romney nomination, 48 to 44.  Also shows Obama doing as well with white voters with Romney as he did with McCain in 2008.  Doing better with Romney than McCain with college educated white voters.  The GDP is the rival, not the GOP.  Consumer spending?  That is the known unknown.

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Halftime in America

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Chrysler uses Clint Eastwood to present an inspiringf 2 minute ad for the Superbowl, and it is fun to imagine how this copy fits the Obama re-election. Noted that David Axelrod tweeted on the ad from Chicago: "davidaxelrod David Axelrod: "Powerful spot. Did Clint shoot that, or just narrate it?" Easy to understand the connection. It would be a catchy slogan for the two-terms, "It's halftime in America." Will Chicago respond?  I did not see the game, and I see now it was close and the NYG prevailed.  Fine.  The Obama re-elect is still searching for a formula:  Run against Congress.  Run against the economy.  Run against Romney.   What the Obama team needs is something to run for.  For the comeback?  That makes sense.  Can they get to it?  Rachel Maddow has already blogged "Clint Eastwood wins the Superbowl."  The GOP keeps repeating the argument that Obama is inadequate to the office.  This is assertion and repetition.  The GOP needs an inspirational theme that takes hold of the American exceptionalism that Clint Eastwood celebrates in Detroit.

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Daytona Blues

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The GOP will gather at Daytona Beach, Valusia County, for the 2012 nomination convention (I am corrected by quick and generous correspondents: fog of mind: the Daytona Beach crowd is a purple district, watching the GOP closely), and this essay by Arian Campo-Flores anticipates the hard times in the area will fill in a sympathetic backdrop. Am dubious. The Trump endorsement of Romney is as far from Daytona Blues as possible.   The Romney campaign is off-key, and it is difficult in this strangely mild winter of our discontent to figure how Romney can recover.  The PEW poll of some weeks back showed 55% of the respondents think Obama understand the middle class problems, while only 39% understand.  Game over unless and until.  Romney makes a torch song out of his management skills.  Romney warbles that he can restore the economy and make dreams come true.  Will Daytona Beach listen?

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Jobs to Last Hope

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Spoke Brendan Conway, DowJones, re the positive jobs report for January (Dec 15 to January 15). The manufacturing, mining and transportation jobs are especially encouraging, and when combined with the increase of the ISM non-farm index, what we see is the right direction. Enterprises grew workforces, bought resources, produced goods for the consumers.  The December number was revised downward, yet both reports are over 200,000.   There was false starts in 2010 and 2011, and so there is reason to hesitate that the recovery is in place.  Will the virtuous circle take hold?  Spoke Dan Henninger, WSJ, re the Obama SOTU that the president took on the road to Arizona last week.  Dan Henninger's POV is that POTUS will not only run against the do-nothing Congress but also he will run against the do-nothing economy.   POTUS is preaching hope for America to "build stuff."  POTUS understands that the voters respond to heart more than brain.  Dan Henninger argues that the GOP must figure how to inspire with more than the Romney promises of better management.   POTUS sells hope for the morrow: "An America Built to Last."   POTUS must have an improving GDP to hold the White House.  For now, that is in place.  POTUS does not mention the entitlements that he aims to build to last.  POTUS does not mention what he aims to do with the revenues (taxes) from the building.  Will this work?  Unknown.


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Awkward GOP Alert

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Spoke McKay Coppins, Buzzfeed, at Las Vegas re the macabre event at the Trump Resort on the Strip where Donald Trump the ex-Republican endorsed Mitt Romney the always new Republican.  Theories proliferate as to what the Romney campaign sees in the Trump embrace?  Distraction?  Glamor?  Grotesque comparison?  What does Romney gain from having a swell-heaed billionaire (so-called) praise you on a chintzy stage set?    It's not that Nevada was slipping away.  Rump doesn't even vote in Nevada.  Working suggestion is that Romney hopes to draw attention away from his "I don't worry about the very poor" remark.  Also it is possible that it was meant as a game with Gingrich, who believed he would be the one Trump praised.  Who is worse to hang around with that a guy you can imagine say sincerely, "Let them eat cake."?  The Obama re-elect doesn't need to do more than stand back and puzzle as to why this keeps getting easier for them.  Is Romney blind and deaf?  McKay Coppins reported that the young Romney rooters in the room, and the general working press, were perplexed.  Romney's strange progress to GOP banner-bearer is a special treat.  Two awkward peacocks who are neither of them much partisan Republican or even especially politically astute.

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Newt Rising 46

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Newt Gingrich's vow to continue the battle with Mitt Romney for the next five months is heaven-sent electioneering. Spoke Bill McGurn, WSJ, re the absence of ideas in the Romney campaign in FL. The negativity drove down turn-out. Newt Gingrich makes no apologies. Spoke Larry Kudlow, re the Gingrich attacks on Bain; and Kudlow observed that the Gingrich attacks on Bain were wasted breath and wrong-headed. Spoke Taegan Goddard re the Romney campaign negativity. Puzzle if Romney attacks continue? Romney impressed some with his below the belt style.

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