Monday 01/28/13 Batchelor Third Hour

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Hour Three

Monday  28  Jan 2013 / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Fordow explosion. If this is all accurate, is a major setback to Iran's military nuclear program.. Supreme Leader said to have laid out plans to retaliate s Israel: Hezbollah probably has some or much of Syria's chemical weapons; Jordan has hundreds of armored vehicles long Syrian border, is afraid of chem. weapons  Iran has ordered many south Lebanon villagers evacuated.  War here wd take Israeli focus from Iran as it'd be fighting on three fronts – Lebanon, Syria, and the south; al Q affiliates in Syria, and also in Sinai.  Deployment of Iron Dome in north on border, an upgraded version to take down medium-range missiles.  Even a low-level war vs Israel is thought by Iran to unify Syrian army.   If Israel reacts, not vs chem. weapons but to protect the sites and contain Hezb, which has 50,000 missiles, esp heavier ones.   Fordow was a centerpiece of intl negotiations, limits what Iran can extract from its threats.  This might break the shield they said they had on their facilities.

Monday  28  Jan 2013 / Hour 3, Block B:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:  Port Said and other cities demand a referendum to secede from Egypt.   Because the economy is in tatters and the currency is a pittance, cannot afford to lose US aid. However, Sinai is in awful shape. Palestinians moved there to establish a Palestinian state – which angered Cairo, who came down on them. Egypt deteriorates gravely. Can turn toward fascism or a military state – something worse than the Muslim Brothers. Military are compromised: bought off by Morsi who protects their 30% of the economy. Continued weapons smuggling here; Iran takes advantage by putting more weapons in Gaza; weakness of Jordan, escalation of Syria; all pieces of one vast puzzle. Israeli politics & elections in two minutes – toward a coalition of 61 votes.  Note deal between Argentina and Iran, commission to investigate Buenos Aires attacks in 1994 to cleanse the name of Velayati, who can’t run for Iranian presidency while this [well-founded] accusation hangs over him.

Monday  28  Jan 2013 / Hour 3, Block C:  . David Kirkpatrick, NYT, from Port Said, in re: the collapse of order, the chaos in Port Said, the police huddling in precinct, hiding from the mob, Morsi asking for national dialogue

Monday  28  Jan 2013 / Hour 3, Block D:   Kori Schake, Hoover, in re: how did the US get involved in Mali and North Africa?

 

The U.S. in Mali: Sniping From Behind? by Kori Schake  Shadow Government (Foreign Policy)