Wednesday 7 November 2012

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Photo, above: Louis XVI, identified as  "first citizen of France" (also as Louis Capet), enjoyed power and popularity in 1792; a year later, he was at the guillotine. Note that in the past few weeks the current top Chinese leadership has been frantically reading de Toqueville and the history of the French revolution.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Wednesday 905P Eastern Time (605P Pacific Time): Patrick Chovanec, Tsinghua University, in re: the Chinese economy and the 18th Party Congress

Wednesday 920P Eastern Time (620P Pacific Time): Lobsang Nyandak, Representative of His Holiness the Dalai Lama to the Americas, in re: Sixty years of crime: the brutality of the Chinese PLA toward the people of Tibet.  Triple self-immolations:  Tibetan people seek a way of expressing their great sadness at the abusive way China treats Tibetans.  We're grateful that Amb Gary Locke has visited a monastery and conveyed his profound interest,  In 2009, 60 people set themselves on fire; now, a sharp increase in self-immolations: this year, 54 such deeds. Beijing is not interested in solving the problem but merely makes it much worse. This is the time for other governments to speak up and interfere, incl UN officials. Need fact-finding delegation.

Chinese President Hu Jintao addresses the opening session of the 18th Communist Party Congress held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, Thursday, Nov. 8, 2012. China's ruling Communist Party opened a congress Thursday to usher in a new group of younger leaders faced with the challenging tasks of righting a flagging economy and meeting public calls for better government. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

1. Chinese govt has responsibility to make the situation much better – 1. first, by relaxing atmosphere: withdrawing all troops stationed in monastic institutions; 2. release all Tibetan imprisoned after self-immolations, and 3. _____. Otherwise, the world will see more and more Tibetans will sacrifice themselves.  

Amb Lock was taken to two monasteries where there was no self-immolation; China refused to allow him to go to the [main] one.

Wednesday 935P Eastern Time (635P Pacific Time): Hotel Mars, episode n.  Tariq J Malik, Managing Editor, SPACE.com, and David Livingston,  in re:  Toward an asteroid. The goal set by Pres Obama in 2010: send an astronaut to an asteroid by 2025. We've never been there; it’s the ultimate frontier. Asteroids can be a danger to the planet; cd be filled w riches, and cd even be habitats or sources of fuel for other space missions. Tantalizing targets.  SLS: crew capsule in dvpt.   2014: first flight of Orion in 20127, flight of giant rocket. Test-run of a deep-space mission to an asteroid is too ambitious right now; start with sending astronaut to a less-distant point. First  year-long mission to space station: 2 astronauts will be picked in 2015; stage center for the later mission.  Vesta: a proto-Earth; then to Ceres, another large asteroid. Primary goal: the astronauts return!  How does an astronaut anchor himself to an asteroid – fire a piton?  Space ZX proved that the model of a robotic spacecraft will work.  Long-term business plan.  Falcon probably not heavy enough to reach an asteroid; we need SLS.

Wednesday 950P Eastern Time (650P Pacific Time): Fraser Howie, Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise, in re: Asia's reaction to the U.S. election.  The game of chicken between the Republican House and the Democratic president over he fiscal cliff, Bush tax cuts, et al.    Have you kitchen-sinked it?  Apple down 100 points since 16 Oct.  The "decoupling" of Asian economies from the West – not happening.  Singapore is the highest mkt penetration of Apple in the world. Asians blasé: they'll solve the fiscal cliff troubles somehow. [Ooops . See Nasim Taleb.]  . . .   Chinese people waiting for their new opacity: the non-accountable, no-transparent new leadership. In the US, we enjoy the gift of transparency.

Wednesday 1005P Eastern  (705P Pacific Time): Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: the secretive 18th Party Congress in China. Out of the revolution these men today did not earn their wealth but grabbed it – wealth greater than the emperors of the Ch'ing Dynasty.  The selection process is opaque: no one on the outside has a clue of what's going on. Xi Jinping , heir-apparent, was out of sight for a few weeks, "with a bad back."  Now said to have occurred because a chair was thrown at him in camera.  Rumors that Hu Jintao, current leader (for the next week, anyway) wants to stick around as Chair of Central Military Commission; also coming: replacement of  presidency and head of Party. It's said that Jiang Zemin, the previous leader, is still pulling the strings. How to run a country with all these ghosts in the closet?   If Xi doesn't turn out to have what it takes, the country will become unstable, He's never been tested, been in a debate or press conference Two guys senior to him who don't like him or each other are also trying to hold in to power.  Think of China as a family company: Mao till 1976, then with each successive generation, became ore of a family quarrel. No mechanism, legal or electoral, for reconciling their quarrels.  French revolution: from  ancien regime to Napoleon – remember that Louis XVI presented himself as "first citizen of France."  Within a year, off with his head, and populace slaughtering nobility. This Chinese princeling corporation model could dissolves in a few years.  The difference is that there's no political participation in China; people are dissatisfied with the Mafia model. Chinese leaders recently have been studying de Toqueville and the French revolution.  China has not yet made the transformation to being a republic. Xi Jingping doesn’t shine Tom Paine's shoes.

Wednesday 1020P Eastern (720P Pacific Time): Scott Harold, Associate Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation on the role of the military at China's leadership transition. Right now, PLA political agenda is still: have a continued steady stream of investment dollars to upgrade; some of their platforms in the future may be the equivalent of some of out best stuff in the 1990s.  Have some investment in some military industries.  Military the most cohesive entity within the Party? No uniform has sat on the Central Commission since the '90s.  Elite policies in China: factions are all interwoven.  Hu more successful in picking the Central Military Commission.  All fascinating and hard to now at this point. To the extent he succeeds in placing his men in the Politburo Standing Committee, that'll strengthen [other's] resolve to countervail his power. [Pls hear segment on WABCradio.com]   The state within a state, PLA: been getting dbl-digit raises every year for two decades; now, not  enough money, so PLA interested in growing the economy. If a statist doesn’t yield results, PLA may look elsewhere.

Dengue fever is caused by a virus transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Symptoms include fever, body ache and dehydration. There is no approved vaccine to prevent it, and no specific treatment.

Wednesday 1035P Eastern  (735P Pacific Time): Gardiner Harris, NYT, in re: Dengue fever - health experts fear that government officials are not acknowledging the scope of a problem that threatens hundreds of millions of people, not just in India but around the world. Mosquito bites, dengue virus enters the white blood cells.  Indian govt is in denial (or this is a sinister policy to suppress.)  Thirty-seven million afflicted in India: a very conservative estimate. At the American Club, between the embassy and the American School: ground zero in New Delhi. Many teachers have go t very sick, If you haven't been exposed to it in the past you’re much more susceptible.  Dengue is so endemic in India that an adult has probably been infected once, twice, thrice.  Underreporting causes an epidemic to grow vastly and unnecessarily. It’s a very political fight in India: epidemics sweep the nation every autumn; concerted campaign by politicos to suppress the numbers. Probably hear 1/200 of the correct numbers.  Vast population with an ineffective govt.   Gates Fdn has spent $500mil on anti-HIV program.  India is a dark continent in infectious diseases.  dengue: first infection can pass in weeks leaving you exhausted; second introduces mortality;  subsequent  are worse. Dengue is one of he curses of the African slave trade, began there. Dengue is an unusual virus: if you get one strain, it tricks yr body to thinking that a second strain won’t damage much, so body does naught till it panics and floods you with needed fluids and throws  you into shock from which you can die without very sophisticated treatment.  Puerto Rico and Madeira have pandemics of dengue.  Lapping at the shores of the US: Key West ad Hawaii.  Seems to be on Tex-Mex borders.  Apparently been dengue recently in Houston. A locally-acquired dengue infection in Miami one month ago! Vaccine?  Sanofi had a candidate – but results were  a disaster. fever, joint pains, rash – looks a lot like measles.

Wednesday 1050P Eastern (750P Pacific Time): Joe Sternberg, Asia WSJ, in re: Tokyo Drive Time China is an important market for Toyota, Honda and Nissan—but not a uniquely important market.

Wednesday 1105P  Eastern (805PPacific Time):  Jeff Bliss, The Bliss Index, in re: Late last night, Jerry's taxation proposition surged ahead. It now appears it's a clear winner. The high-speed rail graveyard got to the polls just in time.

Wednesday 1120P Eastern (820P Pacific Time):  Chris Gadomski, Bloomberg, in re: how did East Coast nuclear reactors respond to Storm Sandy? Three reactors tripped – went offline - during the storm. 

Wednesday 1135P Eastern  (835P Pacific Time): Silent Spring at 50: The False Crises of Rachel Carson by Roger Meiners, Andrew Morriss, Pierre Desrochers and Roger E Meiners; 1 of 2

Wednesday 1150P Eastern  (850P Pacific Time): Silent Spring at 50: The False Crises of Rachel Carson by Roger Meiners, Andrew Morriss, Pierre Desrochers and Roger E Meiners; 2 of 2

Wednesday/Thurs 1205A  Eastern (905 Pacific Time): Patrick Chovanec, Tsinghua University, in re: the Chinese economy and the 18th Party Congress.

Tibetan delegates pose for a photo outside the Chinese Communist Party national Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on November 8, 2012.

Wednesday/Thurs  1220A Eastern (920 Pacific Time): Lobsang Nyandak, Representative of His Holiness the Dalai Lama to the Americas, in re: Sixty years of crime: the brutality of the Chinese PLA toward the people of Tibet.  Triple self-immolations:  Tibetan people seek a way of expressing their great sadness at the abusive way China treats Tibetans.  We're grateful that Amb Gary Locke has visited a monastery and conveyed his profound interest,  In 2009, 60 people set themselves on fire; now, a sharp increase in self-immolations: this year, 54 such deeds. Beijing is not interested in solving the problem but merely makes it much worse. This is the time for other governments to speak up and interfere, incl UN officials. Need fact-finding delegation.

1. Chinese govt has responsibility to make the situation much better – 1. first, by relaxing atmosphere: withdrawing all troops stationed in monastic institutions; 2. release all Tibetan imprisoned after self-immolations, and 3. _____. Otherwise, the world will see more and more Tibetans will sacrifice themselves.  

Amb Lock was taken to two monasteries where there was no self-immolation; China refused to allow him to go to the [main] one.

Wednesday/Thurs  1235A  Eastern (935P Pacific Time): Hotel Mars, episode n.  Tariq J Malik, Managing Editor, SPACE.com, and David Livingston,  in re:  Toward an asteroid. The goal set by Pres Obama in 2010: send an astronaut to an asteroid by 2025. We've never been there; it’s the ultimate frontier. Asteroids can be a danger to the planet; cd be filled w riches, and cd even be habitats or sources of fuel for other space missions. Tantalizing targets.  SLS: crew capsule in dvpt.   2014: first flight of Orion in 20127, flight of giant rocket. Test-run of a deep-space mission to an asteroid is too ambitious right now; start with sending astronaut to a less-distant point. First  year-long mission to space station: 2 astronauts will be picked in 2015; stage center for the later mission.  Vesta: a proto-Earth; then to Ceres, another large asteroid. Primary goal: the astronauts return!  How does an astronaut anchor himself to an asteroid – fire a piton?  Space ZX proved that the model of a robotic spacecraft will work.  Long-term business plan.  Falcon probably not heavy enough to reach an asteroid; we need SLS.

Wednesday/Thurs  1250A  Eastern (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. Glen Johnson, Boston Globe, in re: what's the future for Scott Brown of Massachusetts?

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Music (using New York City broadcast times)

9-hour:    Infamous; Starship Troopers; Panted Veil

10-hour:   Tomorrow Never Dies; Hanna; Crysis; Painted Veil

11-hour:    Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Brake

midnight hour:    Infamous; Starship Troopers; Panted Veil

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