Thursday 8 November 2012

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Photo, above: Sukhoi-25s airborne

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents

Thursday 905P Eastern Time: Victor Davis Hanson, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, in re: Groundhog Day in America

Thursday 920P Eastern Time: John Fund, National Review, in re:  Election of 2012, Pres Obama re-elected: Florida now decided so add 29 votes to his total. Storm named Sandy.  Sandy was a trick-or-treater.   In exit polls, 41% of voters said that Sandy was a factor in their decision;   15% said Sandy was the most important factor. OFA was a brilliant machine. It can be reproduced.  The arms race has ratcheted up several notches. MSNBC is trumpeting this as the final mandate for progressive politics.

Thursday 935P Eastern Time:  Lara M Brown, Villanova, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, in re: The national story is that the GOP in the battleground states developed universes that were too small - so while they hit their turnout targets, their targets weren't high enough to beat Obama's, which were nearly as high as his 2008 targets.

See WSJ graphic: the nation by counties.

The basic story is in blue and yellow below. The "averages" are the 2000-2004-2008 (the count for the Dems, the percent for the Dems, the count for the Republicans, the percent for the Republicans, the total net average votes for the Democrats in Blue; the actual count for the Dems, the actual percent for the Dems, the actual count for the Reps, the actual percent for the Reps, and the actual total net votes for the Dems are in yellow). If you notice - Romney did substantially better in Bucks than the "average" (Dems only netted about 3,843 votes out of that county, instead of their average of about 16K).Romney did slightly better than the average in Chester (GOP netted about 175 votes more than the average). But in the other counties (Delaware and Montgo and Philly), GOP did worse in netting votes than the three-election-year average.

 

COUNTY

 

Dem Ave

Dem Ave%

Act Dem12

Act Dem12%

RepAve

RepAve%

ActRep12

ActRep12%

AveNet Vote

ActNetVote

Philadelphia

 

529,122

81.2

551,070

85.2

116,093

17.9

90,989

14.1

413,029

460,081

Delaware

 

158,777

57.3

160,452

60.4

113,845

41.3

102,688

38.6

44,933

57,764

Chester

 

109,863

48.5

115,078

49.1

111,512

50.1

116,905

49.8

-1,650

-1,827

Montgomery

 

217,810

56.4

230,493

56.5

162,305

42.3

173,176

42.4

55,505

57,317

Bucks

 

158,461

51.8

158,085

50

142,215

46.6

154,242

48.8

16,246

3,843

 

How a Race in the Balance Went to Obama - Adam Nagourney, NY Times

The Case of the Missing White Voters - Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics

Do Dems Really Have an Emerging Majority? - Megan McArdle, Daily Beast

 

Thursday 950P Eastern Time: Tyler Rogoway, AviationIntel, in re:  shootdown of US predator in intl waters east of Kuwait: probably out of the UAE or Bahrain. They're saying predator, but who knows.  (AWACS at 90K feet? A UFO?)  The unmanned vehicle, surveillance craft, was operated by a US intell agy (or some such); approached by two SU-25s – a Russian analogue for the A-10 Warthog, can fly low and slow with a lot of armament; usu air to ground ordnance.  Iran has a few of these; good asset to intercept a Predator because it can follow at a slow speed.  US and Iran watch each other constantly.   Iranian radar – ground control; no radar in the planes -  wd have had to pick this up  Sukhois engaged but did not shoot it down.  With weak avionics, did they just miss? Carries only 250 rounds of 30mm ammo.  US saw them coming, watched the approach; US can afford to lose a Predator.   We armed a drone in 2003 to show Saddam that he couldn't shoot down a second one; he did not try that again.

Thursday 1005P (705P Pacific Time): Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: The second term of presidents, dating at least back to Johnson, perhaps to second Eisenhower (1956 Suez Crisis), are dominated by foreign affairs adventures. Iran: two SU-25s Russian craft held by IRGC approached a US unmanned aircraft over intl waters, shot and did not hit it.  Iran did not tell the world of this; waited till CNN reported it.  Sudan: 23 Oct, Khartoum – several aircraft fly over, strike a storage facility – 40 containers that'd sat there for years - attached to a munitions factory, happened to be exactly the same distance form Israel a s Teheran is. This is the gun-running route of Iran; Sudan is Iran's closest ally, as Sudan and Iran share an Islamist ideology.  They repeatedly accept then reject talks.  Jabar Larijani, head of Iran's human rights council – yike; Ahmadinejad said, "Whoever stockpiles nuclear weapons is mentally retarded."  Turkey: Britain today announced it'll talk directly with Turkish mil; Patriot missiles perhaps to be put in Syria o 1km (or 50km) "buffer zone" – as Turkey and FSA move to take Damascus.   Raided Hamas offices today.   The single-largest donor to the Free Syrian Army is: Libya, at $20 million.

Thursday 1020P (720P Pacific Time): Simon Henderson, Baker Fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute; former journalist with Financial Times, in re: Recalibration of succession in Saudi kingdom: now, nephew of old king: Prince Mohammed bin Naif (age 53?), son of Crown Prince Naif, who's in fact competent, being in charge of the Saudi counterterrorism portfolio.  Number of immediate brothers and half-brothers, of King Abdu Aziz, the dynasty's founder, are dwindling.  In matters of Saudi politics, hard to know for sure.  Cousins of Mohammed bin Naif has cousins who're surprised not to have been chosen Minister of Interior and thus on the road to kingship. Bandar bin Sultan, long-serving Saudi ambassador to Washington, returned to be head of Nat; Sec Council, not w is head of Intelligence (= CIA).  Has flair and imagination. Has the wrong lineage for kingship as his mother was a servant girl. Sheikh Hamid of Qatar (200K citizens, with 2mil pop incl foreign workers; ash 3d-largest nat gas after Russia and Iran) is visiting Gaza.  Has broken the isolation of the Hamas administration in Gaza. Shows Qatar to be a dip player punching above its weight, probably to the annoyance of Saudis.

Thursday 1035P (735P Pacific Time): Ambassador James F. Jeffrey, visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute, and former Dep Natl Sec advisor, in re: US foreign policy in the Middle East, Turkey. Iran: anecdotes of Obama Administration's seeking a grand bargain with Iran involving ceasing sanctions to persuade it to promise not to continue its nuclear program. Do Iranians see the choice between containment and  . . .   Confusion in both camps; communications are poor, mostly because the Iranians rebuff most of our advances.  Five+1 = Security Council + Germany (plus the EU) – getting those seven entities on one sheet of music is difficult but feasible. Pakistan, North Korea, ___, have nuclear weapons.  Iran is a wannabe hegemonic power in the region, even the relatively moderate Moussavi believe Iran should dominate the region. Will use all means - terrorism, asymmetrical fighting, nuclear weapons – to achieve this until someone makes it clear that they absolutely cannot do this. Same as with Soviet Union.  If we ca resolve the situation n Syria in the next few months – Assad can’t win, but he won't necessarily be brought down . . .    Iranians are world-class deceivers; in DNA.  What piece of paper, handshake, protocol, inspections regime is trustworthy?  The latter – IAEA is now extremely intrusive, pursues Iranians and calls them out when needed. If they run into illegal and unauthorized resistance, all deals are off the table.  If there's out-of-country control of uranium . . . [?] Our intelligence  tracking uranium is very, very good.  JB: Will require ruthless vigilance. JFJ: Amano: we believe that the weapons program (how to trigger a weapon in a missile and shaping it) was stopped for a while. 

Thursday 1050P (750P Pacific Time): Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: UDI is the intention of Mahmoud Abbas to use lawfare to endorse the existence of what does not exist, a separate Palestinian state. Emir of Qatar wanted to take Abbas into Gaza; Abbas, who isn't welcome there, declined.  Turkey: PM Erdogan and pres of Egypt called Pres Obama to congratulate him. Pres Obama may visit PM Erdogan – who criticizes Israel for defending itself while bombing Kurds. Also opened a show trail vs Israelis because when the Marmora tried to invade Israel, Israel sent unarmed persons to intercept the ship.

Thursday 1105P (805P Pacific Time):   Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi, senior researcher of the Middle East and radical Islam at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs;  co-founder of the Orient Research Group Ltd., in re: Palestinian claims in the right of return. In 2008 , ratified the right of return: "a natural and civil right passed from father to son, can’t be cancelled or relinquished or negotiated."  Purpose is implementations of Palestinians worldwide moving into Israel, guaranteeing he end of the state of Israel.  Hamas doesn’t allow refugees in Gaza Strip to be housed outside the camps, maintains the fictional dream of their moving into Israel in the near future.  his is a critical negotiating card that Hamas does not want to resolve.  The day Israel leaves the West Bank, countless Palestinians will enter from all over he world. A few days ago, documents released showing how Hamas leadership discussed relations w Fatah: planned to initiate terrorist attacks on Israel to oblige Israel to attack the PA, paving the way for Hamas to take over the West Bank.

Thursday 1120P (820P Pacific Time): Khaled Abu Toameh - Israeli Arab journalist, lecturer and documentary filmmaker -  is the West Bank and Gaza correspondent for the Jerusalem Post and U.S. News and World Report; has been the Palestinian affairs producer for NBC News since 1988; in re: goal of protestors in Jordan is to bring down the king, but they can't say so. He, in turn, is appeasing them in a dozen ways. A deeply dangerous game. Muslim Brotherhood , very popular in Jordan, will boycott upcoming elections, so king draft Hamas to change their position. Millions of Palestinians living in Jordan. Palestinians are second-class citizens n Jordan; may join forces with the Islamists.  Were the king to collapse, what sort of state wd replace the monarchy?    KKing has lost aid an support from some of the Arab nations that used to support him, and Jordanian economy is very bad. Has huge ramifications for Israel, Saudi kingdom, others.   The monarchy has historically be supported by the tribes, who now are falling into hands of Salafis and Islamists. Grave.  Some of the tribals are going to fight in Syria, say, When we finish in Syria, will return to fight against the king. King appointed Walid Obeidat, from a powerful tribe in the north; the tribe immediately disowned our on who has agreed to serve in the Zionist entity. This is spitting in the face of the king.  It looks as though the countdown has started, the king is on borrowed time. All the jihadis in Syria will comeback. The same Arab thugs who darken other Arab nations.

Thursday 1135P (835P Pacific Time): Assassins of the Turquoise Palace by Roya Hakakian; 1 of 2

Thursday 1150P (850P Pacific Time): Assassins of the Turquoise Palace by Roya Hakakian; 2 of 2

Thursday/Fri 1205A (905 Pacific Time): Victor Davis Hanson, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, in re: Groundhog Day in America

Thursday/Fri  1220A (920 Pacific Time): John Fund, National Review, in re:  Election of 2012, Pres Obama re-elected: Florida now decided so add 29 votes to his total. Storm named Sandy.  Sandy was a trick-or-treater.   In exit polls, 41% of voters said that Sandy was a factor in their decision;   15% said Sandy was the most important factor. OFA was a brilliant machine. It can be reproduced.  The arms race has ratcheted up several notches. MSNBC is trumpeting this as the final mandate for progressive politics.

Thursday/Fri  1235A (935P Pacific Time): Reza Kahlili, author, A Time to Betray, in re: Iran shoots at US drone.

Thursday/Fri  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt.  Tyler Rogoway, AviationIntel, in re:  shootdown of US predator in intl waters east of Kuwait: probably out of the UAE or Bahrain. They're saying predator, but who knows.  (AWACS at 90K feet? A UFO?)  The unmanned vehicle, surveillance craft, was operated by a US intell agy (or some such); approached by two SU-25s – a Russian analogue for the A-10 Warthog, can fly low and slow with a lot of armament; usu air to ground ordnance.  Iran has a few of these; good asset to intercept a Predator because it can follow at a slow speed.  US and Iran watch each other constantly.   Iranian radar – ground control; no radar in the planes -  wd have had to pick this up  Sukhois engaged but did not shoot it down.  With weak avionics, did they just miss? Carries only 250 rounds of 30mm ammo.  US saw them coming, watched the approach; US can afford to lose a Predator.   We armed a drone in 2003 to show Saddam that he couldn't shoot down a second one; he did not try that again.

..  ..  ..  

Music (times from New York show):

9 hour: Frost/Nixon, The Raid, Green Zone

10 hour: Green Zone

11 hour: Call of Duty: Black Ops, Infamous

12 hour: Frost/Nixon, The Raid, The Ghost Writer, Green Zone