Co-host: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents

Thursday 905P Eastern Time: Taegan Goddard, Political Wire, CQPolitics.com, in re: Alaska and  Florida primaries; the perpetually resurfacing Levi Johnston.

Thursday 920P Eastern Time:  Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: Jimmy Carter in North Korea, extending his visit; Kim Jong-il said to be visiting China at the same time. Succession speculations: his third son, who's not ready, and the generals who wish to stand in as regent.  Because North Koreans often use doubles for photographs of Kim, all is not clear.  It's thought that Kim is quite unwell, has sent a double to Beijing to cover and is unable to receive Carter, with whom a press photograph would help Kim's uncertain career.

Thursday 935P Eastern Time: Gov Pete DuPont, in re: inflation/deflation/stagflation, and taxes. Deficit of $1.4trillion.  The Deficit Commission may or may not address spending; will probably advocate a VAT or increased income taxes.  Need also to consider how to reduce costs. 

Thursday 950P Eastern Time:   Josh Kron, NYT, in re: rapes in Eastern Congo by Rwandan

 gangs. Eighty UN peacekeepers stationed fairly nearby, to cover hundreds of square kilometers with two vehicles; half are asleep at any given time.  Congolese villagers have been begging for assistance for years, while UN representatives have turned a deaf ear to them.  In this instance, the 200 to 400 attackers apparently are not being pursued.

Thursday 1105P (805P Pacific Time):  Mordechai Kedar, formerly IDF Military Intelligence specializing in Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups and the Syrian domestic arena; currently lecturer in Arabic at Bar-Ilan U, in re: Russia for many years, including before collapse of Soviet Union, was in close relations with Syria.  We regularly heard that they were doing things against us - and other navies in the Med, including the US. Russia can give some of those missiles to Iran. Russia's agriculture has be badly damaged, also diminishing their forex income; when they see the US being weak, they move. They want to be in good fgraces with all the Middle Eastern powers plus Europe, plus  the US. They want to dance at every wedding.  Who's paying?  Probably the Iranians.  Assad is now celebrating ten years in office, wants to show that he has some power thst's not related ot his late father, which is one more reason why he's doing these things. In the Middle East, only a powerful leader is noticed. Pouring more weapons into this region will not bring peace. Saudi Arabia is deeply involved in Iran to forestall Iran's arrogation. Netanyahu calls on Putin: a dangerous episode in a very tough neighborhood, a region of constant crisis - Somalia, Sudan, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan: the culture of parochialism, sectarianism, extremism, which the West doesn't know about.

Thursday 1120P (820P Pacific Time):  Malcolm Hoenlein, in re:  Ground-to-sea missile system that the Russians are selling to Syria bodes trouble.  Will be a cloud over impending peace talks, also signals that Syria wants to be in on a deal, is afraid of being isolated just as its economy plunges and it carries Iran like a millstone around its neck.  Given the weakness of the Lebanese army, some local powers want to bolster Syria as a countervailing force. The narrative of Israel as villain shows how manufactured tales gain their own lives on the Internet; the truth is ignored. Tony Blair says: To delegitimize Israel is an affront everywhere and to all humanity. The best [response] lies in the character of Israel and its people. There's a population somewhere that's perpetually ready to believe that Israel is wicked; Reuters comes to mind despite that fact that it's had to purge its photo files of hundreds of manufactured mages that it had published as accurate.

Thursday 1135P (835P Pacific Time):  Bob Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Kepler, gas giants, and orbiting an Earth-sized possibility 2,000 light years away.  Kepler 9B and Kepler 9C are the gas giants.  Another at 127 light years out: furnaces, not habitable as we understand it. However, the astronomy is getting to be good enough for us to see Earth-size planets. Dimitar Sasselov remarked in London in June that there are 700 candidates for Earth-sized planets. Need to see additional transits to confirm.  Chile says it could take four months to rescue the stranded miners; NASA asked to help. Can we send the new Star Trek game down there?  Yes: in that predicament, entertainment is a good idea.

Thursday 1150P (850P Pacific Time): Greg Zuckerman, author, in re: Deflation hedge betting - another "greatest trade ever"?

Thursday/Fri 1205A (905 Pacific Time):  James Taranto, WSJ, in re: the hate crime, the stabbing of the Bangladeshi taxi driver

Thursday/Fri  1220A (920 Pacific Time):  Charlie Pellegrino, author, Last Train from Hiroshima, in re: James Camron movie plans

Thursday/Fri  1235A (935P Pacific Time): Danielle Ofri, author, Medicine in Translation.

Thursday/Fri  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. 

Co-host: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com

Wednesday 905P Eastern Time:  Jeff Bliss, the Bliss Index; Gordon Chang, in re: China, Taiwan, North Korea, the housing market, the Alaska election

Wednesday 920P Eastern Time:  Shane D'Aprile, The Hill, re Murkowski and Miller undedied

Wednesday 935P Eastern Time:  Hotel California:  Devin Nunes (CA-21); Bill Whalen, Hoover, and Jeff Bliss, in re Meg, Jerry, Carly, Babs, the Central Valley, the economy, POTUS, Wilson, Arnold.

Wednesday 950P Eastern Time: Continued

Wednesday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  Jeff Bliss, Gordon Chang, in re: primaries; China.

Wednesday 1020P (720P Pacific Time):  John Fund, WSJ, in re: US politics and the Alaska primaries. Lisa Murkowslki lost for three reasons: lingering bitterness over her appointment by her father; the Republican primary electorate was furious about her tardiness in signing on to the repeal of Obamacare (with doubletalk).  She represents the auld Alaska of pork-barrel politics, while  Joe Miller is the new politics: we need to get a grip on the Federal government and its spending.  Alaskans think Washington is a crazy place.   Pres Millstone may campaign in the San Joaquin Valley.

Wednesday 1035P (735P Pacific Time): Mary Kissel, Asia WSJ, in re: North Korea and the Jimmy Carter visit to rescue a 30 year-old troubled American.

Wednesday 1050P (750P Pacific Time): continued, re Australia elections.

Wednesday 1105P (805P Pacific Time):  Gordon Chang; Alim Seytoff, director of the Uyghur Human Rights Project and  the general secretary of the Uyghur American Association, in re:  Ilham Tohti, Uyghur writer under pressure from the Beijing central government, who've used Stalinist/Brezhnevian resettlement policies for decades: sending enormous numbers of Han Chinese people to shift the demographic balance and overwhelm Uyghurs in their own home, East Turkestan, now called Xinjiang (New Territories) Province.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilham Tohti ; see also UyghurBiz.net

Wednesday 1120P (820P Pacific Time):   Carl Hulse, NYT, re John Boehner.

Wednesday 1135P (835P Pacific Time):  David Grinspoon, curator of astrobiology, Denver Museum of Nature & Science, in re: Gas giants form far from their star, where things are cold and icy; Jupiter and Saturn; is our Solar System atypical?  Seven hundred planets are candidates to be similar to Earth.

Wednesday 1150P (850P Pacific Time): Kris Hudson, WSJ, in re: Commercial property owners default: Same as homeowners walking away from mortgaged houses, some large commercial property owners are defaulting on debts and surrendering to lenders buildings worth less than their loans.

Wednesday/Thurs 1205A (905 Pacific Time):  Bret Stephens, WSJ, in re: Arab tyrants eclipsed; The Twenty Years' War:
defeating Saddam took 19 years too long. 

Wednesday/Thurs  1220A (920 Pacific Time):  Ben Worthen, WSJ, in re: iPad goes to B-school

Wednesday/Thurs  1235A (935P Pacific Time):  Gardiner Harris, NYT, in re: stem cell research blocked

Wednesday/Thurs  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. 

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Jackson Hole, Wyoming, seat of the annual Fed summit this week

Co-host: Joesph Brusuelas, Bloomberg senior economic analyst

Tuesday 905P Eastern Time:  Jeremy J Siegel, Wharton, in re: bond bubble. [Summary] People are so spooked, they'll buy 10-yr Treasurys at 2-1/2% - unprecedented,.  Lemmings line up to buy bond funds.  After the last several days it's hard to say "too gloomy."  Assumption that the economy will bounce back? As a professional economist i see productivity as the most important factor - and right now I see some high numbers that'll translate into higher incomes and disposable spending. it may take a year or more, but it'll happen. We have a large number fo [people working on the most advanced questions; we're going to have a v strong economy.  The Fed seems to be in a food fight - those who think we should print money vs those who think we should raise rates. And then there's Bernanke.  "We need to be sure that the money supply does not shrink. Bernanke is right: he's a monetary policy expert who's studied the Japan deflation and the 1930s depression. He'll do everything to prevent a repeat of the 1930s. That's why we won't be a Japan. Their bubble broke in 1989, deflation didn't start till twelve years later. The main thing that made the '30s disastrous was a 30% decline in the consumer price index; no one could pay his debts. You cannot allow that to happen. I think Bernanke will persuade the Open Market Committee to add enough liquidity to prevent deflation."  JBrusuelas: Would you agree with Bullard, St Louis Fed, to do whatever it takes but slowly? What's the most efficacious method here? JS: I don't think we need another trillion and a half. I'd move up between $200 and 400 bil. I'd actually buy packages.  Long-term loan rates are high; the Fed should buy auto loans, credit card loans, business loans. This would bring down the rates and add liquidity to the system. One of the biggest inhibiting factors is that we'll end this year in a few months and nobody know what any of the taxes will be in 2011. Unprecedented. Advisors don't know what to tell their clients. Obama must come out and tell us what he proposes for 2011.  Unless he comes up with some tax policies - not punitive ones - that is, those alone would bring about a large rally in the Street. 

Tuesday 920P Eastern Time:   Paul Vigna, in re:  The existing home-sales housing number is really bad. Nobody expected good news - and then it was down 27%. Nobody thought it'd be that bad. It's back to the worst level since 1996; the housing market is falling off a cliff.  This is the aftereffect of the homebuyer tax credit. What we're seeing now is where the housing  market really is. Also, the supply of homes for sale is now at 12 months. A new cyclical high.  JBr: The data are so grim, so bad on so many levels. The share of distressed homes as a share of overall sales inched up to 32%. One-third of the market is severely discounted homes. As that share is captured, it'll create a negative feedback loop.  It's happening at exactly the wrong time, at the Q3. This is why the response today was across asset classes. This is more than the tax subsidy ending; this is a dress-rehearsal for deflation. Consumers are behaving rationally: they don't believe that the housing market has bottomed out and they won't buy till they do.  PV: What is the Fed going to do? They have their annual meeting in Jackson Hole; Bernanke will speak on Friday.  What can they do? They've nailed interest rates to the floor; they've bought a trillion in bonds and will buy 200bil more. What else can they do?  Paul Vigna reports that the housing number shocked the WSJ newsroom. Joseph Brusuelas was on TV when the news came out: he heard deep sighs all around.  Is Congress part of the problem? Yes - one of those 2,000-page bills. No cost control. We need very simple solutions, which do exist. This thing is building on fear.  The Obama administration is a deer frozen in headlights. We could be near a major sell-off in the market. 

Tuesday 935P Eastern Time: Joseph Brusuelas; Paul Vigna, Markets Hub, WSJ; Laurence Kotlikoff ("The US is bankrupt."), Boston University, in re:   

LK: unprecedented housing decline: it was expected in a general sense; the real question is what will happen in three or four months. I'm a pretty dismal economist, but we could alarm the public. If you own a home and hte price goes down, if you just stay in your home you're OK. We've got the same eqpt, persons, behavior, as we did two years ago.  PV:  the mkt would be impressed if Bernanke said "quantitative easing." They've been doing this, which is how they expanded their balance sheet [i.e., put us all trillions in debt]. Printing money is the best thing for the stock market, but not for the rest of us.  

JBrusuelas: The discipline of economics is in a sorry state right now, caught between the fantasy of a perfect market and a Keynsian dead end.  Banks have about $800 billion in excess reserves. The real solution is fundamental reform in healthcare, tax policy, financial conduct. National savings rate is 1%. It was 13% in 1960.

Tuesday 950P Eastern Time: Paul Vigna, et al., in re: The Fed can't do much about employment. They can print money, but they can't print jobs, as Larry Kudlow wrote last week.   

JB: Now we have QE lite. 

J Brusuelas: More to do with risks of deflation in the economy. The idea of deflation has taken hold in the housing market.  George Melloan has a column today in the WSJ, says the reason companies won't spend cash and banks won't lend is a lack of certainty. Essentially, a capital strike.  The WH has the tools; will it use them?

Tuesday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  Mary Kissel, WSJ Asia, in re: The still-unresolved Australian elections, as seen from Hong Kong again. For the moment. seems to favor the Liberals, although marginally.  Tony Abbot told the truth and has transformed Australian politics. Labour lost a lot of votes to the Greens; as they gain more protest votes, they'll move the party to the left.  See: OzWaits and #ausvotes on twitter

Tuesday 1020P (720P Pacific Time):  John Fund, WSJ, in re: President Obama has become one of the biggest millstones around Democrats' necks heading into the fall elections.

Tuesday 1035P (735P Pacific Time): Elizabeth Rosenthal,  NYT, in re: GM crops in  Europe 

Tuesday 1050P (750P Pacific Time):   John Tamny, RealClearmarkets, in re: housing is a black hole for the economy

Anti-GM activists destroy genetically-modified corn near Toulouse, in France, in  2005.  "People have already expressed disgust about using human genes, and already feel that their concerns are being ignored by the biotech industry.   This will just undermine their confidence even more." Pete Riley, director of the anti-GM pressure group Five Year Freeze, said:  "The industry is capable of anything and this development certainly smacks of Frankenstein." 

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Tuesday 1105P (805P Pacific Time): John Burns, NYT,  in re: WikiLeaks's Assange: molestation charges

Tuesday 1120P (820P Pacific Time):  Rachel Pannett, DowJones, in re:  Australian continued minority government negotiations. Debriefing the election. Australian dollar ("the kwid") recovers; miners rise. Broadband plans may be the battleground.

Tuesday 1135P (835P Pacific Time):  Bob Zimmerman, author, in re: astrobiology; oxygenation in ancient ocean margins precedes atmospheric rise 

Tuesday 1150P (850P Pacific Time):   Nick Wade, NYT, in re: Harvard fake-science investigation of Marc Hauser.

Tuesday/Wed 1205A (905 Pacific Time):  John Schwartz, NYT, in re: Katrina five years later - a new Corps of Engineers wall, crenelated.

Tuesday/Wed  1220A (920 Pacific Time):   John Vinocur, NYT, in re: Obama and Merkel: both in trouble with Europe

Tuesday/Wed  1235A (935P Pacific Time): George Melloan, WSJ, in re: The Fed, deflation, inflation, stagflation

Tuesday/Wed  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. 

The Gulf Intracoastal Waterway West Closure complex will close off 25 miles of drainage canals that stretch deep into the communities along the West Bank of the Mississippi River.

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