Carpathia at New York, 1912.

Orchestra at square dance. McIntosh County, Oklahoma, 1939 or 1940. Reproduction from color slide. Photo by Russell Lee. Prints and Photographs Division, Library of Congress.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW podcast link:

http://wabcradio.com/sectional.asp?id=33447

 

Thursday 905P Eastern Time:  David Drucker, Roll Call, and Taegan Goddard, Political Wire, in re: brochure on Barack Obama, bio from his book stating that he was born in Kenya.  His then-publicist says this is merely a mistake on her part.   Elizabeth Warren: she's said that she has substantial Cherokee blood, 1/32, which seems not to be accurate. Will affect her Senatorial race in Massachusetts.

Thursday 920P Eastern Time:  Greg  Zuckerman, WSJ, in re: From 'Caveman' to 'Whale': Bruno Iksil wagered large, and won, in bets last year against a group of junk-bond-rated companies. His trades soured this year, losing the Wall Street bank more than $2 billion. Months before Bruno Iksil became famous as the "London whale," the trader who contributed to a loss of more than $2 billion at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., he earned a different nickname: the "Caveman," for pursuing trades that rivals sometimes thought were overly aggressive but often led to huge profits.  Late last year, Mr. Iksil, a London-based trader in J.P. Morgan's Chief Investment Office, turned heads among fellow debt-market traders with a wager against a group of junk-bond-rated companies, traders say.  At the time, Mr. Iksil had an approximately $1 billion bet on some of these companies. He used to be bearish on credit, then became bullish on credit. Most of his positions are still open. PIMCO, Blackrock, other big players, are in the market; this fellow was bigger than many of them.  Ergo, can't bail out quickly, have to wit for a while and sell slowly.  Iksil is still at his desk but other people have taken over his work. His return on $450mil? Must've been a few dollars.

 Permian forest Wudan Basin, North China, Inner Mongolia.

Thursday 935P Eastern Time:   Mara Hvistendahl, AAAS, Science magazine in Shanghai, in re: discovery in Wuda (tones: 3, 4) Basin/Wuda Forest: in paleobotany, a primaeval forest is found in a deep layer of volcanic ash. "Primeval Land Rises from the Ashes" 298 million years ago, the Permian (carboniferous).  Geologist working in this northern, coal region for a long time; finally realized that they were in a forest preserved when a volcano erupted, similar to Pompeii. Can see what the climate was then, what it had evolved from, and even a bit about what we might expect today. Vegetation looks rather Dr Seuss-like. We never knew much about any of this flora till now; here we have almost the entire plant. One species looks rather like a fern, but definitely not garden-variety. Colleague Wang Jun compared them to Chinese cabbage. Chinese economy is so dependent on mining that only 10% of this forest remains; negotiations to preserve one square kilometer.  Contest between impoverished villagers - whose lives are mutilated by coal mining and paleobotanists.  Comes down to pleading with the local government.

 

Thursday 950P Eastern Time: Mary Kissel, in re: US evaluates Chinese mfrg expenses by using proxies: uses India's costs as a proxy , but for mfrg solar panels, used Thailand.  JB: I think we have a China that never could have been trusted; now, as China collapses . . .  MK: the reformers may come to the fore.  JB: Jamil Anderlini calls that governance "Medieval."  MK: Free trade [will solve it}.

 

Thursday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  Malcolm Hoenlein, in re:  Gulfies, GCC, pouring huge sums to Syrian oppo, who are not organized.  Farsi-speaking people among Hezbollah to help Assad forces. Businessmen are abandoning Assad: when he loses the Aleppo and Damascus business communities, that's the beginning of the end. Allawites (army), Kurds (at war with Turkey); in the East: Moslem Brothers and Islamists who fought with Assad's father; the urban elite, who've been neutral for the last year - they've made a lot of money under Assad so held on for as long as possible to protect their assessments of their own interests.  Some leave the county, some send their assets out of the country, some now start to support the oppo.  Dan Shapiro, Washington old hand, said something like "a US plane is ready" anent IAEA mtg and P5+1 mtg. Iranians are masters of stalling, are continuing. Asnar (Spain), said: "Khomeini said that: 'Israel will be burnt to the ground, will disappear from the Earth.' " Asnar said, "Do not dismiss or ignore this." Iran using Lebanese banks to bypass sanctions; will use the 50,000 missiles in Hezbollah's arsenal. Iran putting a billion dollars  into cyberactivities; Yemeni separatist mtg in Beirut ; buying time to enrich more, to create facts that cannot be reverse.

Thursday 1020P (720P Pacific Time): Faik Tunay, Eisenhower Fellow from Turkey; Member of Parliament, Grand National Assembly, Turkey.  Second-youngest Deputy of the Turkish Grand National Assembly; in re:   Turkey.  Israeli-Turkish relations.. EU membership for Turkey. Senior military in Turkey: ongoing situation of many generals in jail under Erdogan.

Thursday 1035P (735P Pacific Time):   Danielle Pletka, AEI VP foreign & defense policy studies, in re: Congress and Iran.

Thursday 1050P (750P Pacific Time): Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Egyptian presidential election: striking out verbally against Israel.  Amir Moussa & severing Camp David accords.  Poll: 61% of Egyptians favor annulling accords.  Ahmed Shafiq (military background)  former PM under Mubarak, flaunts his admiration for Mubarak - was called out of touch, but now he's seen to be first among thirteen candidates. "A strong state has a strong currency, a strong culture."  Jordan: More concern abt Jordan than Egypt - its stability is vital for  many nations; the king is a key ally, now backed by Gulf states.  Military exercise, nineteen nations participating. Israeli army adds surveillance eqpt along Jordanian border: infiltration and other issues. These games focussed on irregular warfare. Israeli jet fighters en route to the US right now for exercises.

 

Thursday 1105P (805P Pacific Time): Gideon Saar, Member of the Knesset and Israeli Min of Education, in re: Israel's new govt; educational issues.

Thursday 1120P (820P Pacific Time):  Malcolm Hoenlein, in re:    Yemen is small but complesx: tribal divisions; north-south historically; and now al Qaeda in South; in the North, Iran working with Houthis: proxy war against Saudi Arabia. Gulfies are apoplectic about events in Yemen.  Note control extending to Somalia; 80% of oil to the West sails though that waterway. Geopolitically and strategically critical.  IRGC convenes mtg of Yemeni separatists.. Yemen refused some members of parliament permission to leave. Iran is trying to create a state within the state. Iran sent an officer of the IRGC as ambassador to Yemen - whom the Yemenis refused to accredit. Yemen: CENTCOM is moving troops - "advisors" - into Sana'a.  Jamal Benomar brokered the deal inYemen; Saleh's successors have no stability.

Thursday 1135P (835P Pacific Time): Sid Perkins, Science magazine, in re: How ice affected prehistoric life on Earth.

Thursday 1150P (850P Pacific Time): Rick Fisher, in re: the USS North Carolina at Subic Bay.

 

Thursday/Fri 1205A (905 Pacific Time): Bob Zimmerman, behindtheblack, in re: ISS Soyuz docking. Waiting on SpaceX on Saturday 19 May. What if Eagle had crashed? Asteroid tracking. Solar eclipse on Sunday 20 May.

Thursday/Fri  1220A (920 Pacific Time):  Ross Douthat, NYT, in re: what use third parties?

Thursday/Fri  1235A (935P Pacific Time): Mara Hvistendahl, AAAS, Science magazine in Shanghai, in re: discovery in Wuda (tones: 3, 4) Basin/Wuda Forest: in paleobotany, a primaeval forest is found in a deep layer of volcanic ash. "Primeval Land Rises from the Ashes" 298 million years ago, the Permian (carboniferous).  Geologist working in this northern, coal region for a long time; finally realized that they were in a forest preserved when a volcano erupted, similar to Pompeii. Can see what the climate was then, what it had evolved from, and even a bit about what we might expect today. Vegetation looks rather Dr Seuss-like. We never knew much about any of this flora till now; here we have almost the entire plant. One species looks rather like a fern, but definitely not garden-variety. Colleague Wang Jun compared them to Chinese cabbage. Chinese economy is so dependent on mining that only 10% of this forest remains; negotiations under way to preserve one square kilometer.  Contest between impoverished villagers - whose lives are mutilated by coal mining - and paleobotanists.  Comes down to pleading with the local government.

Thursday/Fri  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt.  Aaron Ricadella, Bloomberg, in re: layoffs at Hewlett-Packard are as many as 25,0000

..  ..  .. 

The Eagle Landed, July 1969. 

Music

Hour 1
Season of the Witch by Atli Orvarsson
Jurassic Park by John Williams

Hour 2
Wrath of the Titans by Javier Navarrete

Hour 3
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers by Howard Shore
10,000 BC by Harold Kloser and Thomas Wander

Hour 4
Star Trek by Michael Giacchino
The Shawshank Redemption by Thomas Newman
Jurassic Park by John Williams

Godzilla, 1954. 

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW podcast link:

http://wabcradio.com/sectional.asp?id=33447

 

Co-host: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com and The Daily

Wednesday 905P Eastern Time (605P Pacific Time):  Lobsang Nyandak, Representative of HH the Dalai Lama to North America, in re: Chinese Communist Party thought to have tried to poison HH the Dalai Lama. Not entirely confirmed; so secretive, difficult to veru=ify, but have bbeen hearing such reports for a while.  HH has specific information that the attempts were and again will  be made.  GC: The Party can't deal with this. So many Chinese people are turning to Buddhism, and esp Tibetan Buddhism - something the Party cannot defeat.    Chinese people who meet with HH complain that there's a serious moral crisis in China - broken rule of law. It's said that 200 mil people [or more] in China have turned to Buddhism. HH could be a great benefit to China.  The Party is sure that religion is incompatible with it. Over the 5,000km line of control between China and India, over 500 violation by the PLA in the last two years, many on border of Sikkhim .  GC:  Tibet is not Chinese; it's Tibet.  LN: This territory "once under he TIbtan govt" is how they say it. We had our own currency, flag, anthem - but unfortunately China has engulfed the TIbetan nation.  GC: The Communist Party has forfeited it right to rule - by its genocide and horrendous abuses.  JB: China has blt thousands of miles of railroad - why? GC: To be able to transport troops against India. It's that simple.

Wednesday 920P Eastern Time (620P Pacific Time):  John Lee, University of Sydney, in re; the zero-growth Chinese economy and how this affects global commodity prices and the Australian economy. In Australia, 60-65% or our minerals go t0 China. As China slows, the economists' figures are wrong. When Gordon Chang made a presentation last year to the Australian PM, he was received politely but patronizingly. Why? because the Gillard govt had to show a profit, and when Gordon gave the talk - saying that the Chinese economy was weakened by corruption, inaccurate reporting, bubbles, and other problems - there were no questions, everyone was looking down at his feet.  Hmm -if we went down now, what might they say?  Now that the new numbers are released, for the next weeks, you'll hear a lot of denial - transitory numbers. Next: fear; eventually, the Australian govt will just say, it wasn't our fault that China dropped the ball. GC: Dutch disease: as he A$ becomes stronger, perhaps other parts of the economy will become stronger?  JL: Only in the long run, When commodities go down, you can;t transition swiftly to other fields - beed workers, experts, training, markets.  JB: Iron ore to China not to use, but to store as an asset against which to borrow?  JL: inventories showed CHina either was hoarding or using it for residential bldgs never used.  Australian govt an mining co's didn't want to look at that.  JB: In The Australian today, cited 8% gowth. JL: It'll be three months before next results come through. Govt will say [exculpatorily], That was unpredictable; that China is slowing down, that Australia is doing better than the rest of the world.  

Wednesday 935P Eastern Time (635P Pacific Time):   Guillermo Söhnlein, founder & chairman, Sea-Space Initiative, www.seaspaceinitiative.org , in re: relations of ocean to space: research similarities; envt issues, industrial growth; "synergies of outer space and inner space." NASA, but esp private companies, understand.  Many NASA people are interested in living in villages (in effect) on the sea.  Global trend toward entrepreneurship, doing good, fast change and innovation.  Columbus pitched Queen Isabella on bases of greed; in this instance, greed may be part of the motive power.   Thin line between greed and trying to make your payroll.  PRC claims the whole of the South China Sea; because of the global nature of both envts - sea and space - you run into bureaucratic infrastructures. A lot of the events being organized hold that public-prvate partnerships are the only way a lot will get accomplished. Problems: lack of funding; but govt + NGO + a commercial entity together may be able to pull it off.

Wednesday 950P Eastern Time (650P Pacific Time):  Sonia Faleiro, journalist, NYT India Ink, in re: "A Woman Leader for the Isolated Jungle Village of Jharki Bisalpur" -  recently in Jarkand to meet Sheila Devi. Region known for its rich mineral resources. Tribe s  there live in the forest; very difficult access; during monsoon, rivers in forests swell and impossible to leave. Villager can;t even afford a boat.  "When I was young wild boars and pythons came here, and once  a tiger; but now conditions are so dreadful that "even the animals leave."  State govt holds the land protected, wants people t leave.  However, recently tribes that  have lived there for generations have a right to tay.  Cannot afford to by land or a house in  a town, they have to stay, no other option. State is obliged by federal law to have free schools for children - school, nursery - so the got has to permit some level of access: a schoolteacher or doctor has to  be able to enter.   Govt sent a few sacks of bricks and a worker, left a brick bldg with no window, no roof, no door - the nursery!  Children sit out of doors. Every adult has a cell phone, all are aware of what modern life is like and want to participate. Mining co's used to come in to entice tribals to work, gave the electricity. When Conservation Act was passed, companies left, took everything with them, leaving the villagers beereft. No electricity, cannot charge, Can receive a call only at one house down by the river; everybody leaves his phone tied to a bamboo pole at the house. Sheila 's dream is a road that connects the village to modern India.

 Bo Xilai said to be too close to the PLA.

Wednesday 1005P Eastern  (705P Pacific Time):  Toshi Yoshihara of the Naval War College and co-author of Red Star over the Pacific, in re: China's rise and the challenge to U.S. maritime strategy; on the standoff between Beijing and Manila. China's top diplomat said yesterday that the nation would not tolerate bullying by smaller countries, "for instance, the Philippines."  The remarks by State Councillor Dai Bingguo came ahead of today's start to a 2-1/2-month fishing ban by China in the South China Sea, including the waters surrounding the disputed Scarborough Shoal.  US has dispatched a fast attack submarine, the North carolina, which could sink all Chinese vessels in the region.  to At a meeting of the Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, Dai said that, given China's size and high-speed development, the country must remain humble and not make other countries feel threatened, the China Daily reported online yesterday.  But Dai said that being humble and vigilant are not the same as being weak. "Smaller countries should not bully larger countries, for instance, the Philippines," Dai was quoted.  Chinese believe they're in a position to engage in diplomatic coercion. Effort to put a  stake into this particular dispute; thinks it needs to "teach a lesson" to the Philippines - which we heard in connection with its wars against India and Vietnam. Took ____ Reef from Philippines, which certainly taught a  lesson. Scarborough Shoal (125 nautical mi from Philippines, 750 nautical mi from China) is quite small, mostly submerged during high tide, not habitable; strategically valuable anent oil and gas, and fishing.  Seaborne commerce connects northeast Asia with the Middle East - and China also is just feeling its power. Likely to mobilize the entire region against China. Will reinforce tendency of SE Asian nations to band together in face of China's throwing its weight around. US needs to reset its posture in the Middle East, draw down its force there, and focus on China.  China withdrew rare earth from Japan to intimidate Japan over Senkakus; and _______.  

Taiwan is to build 12 new "stealth" warships in reaction to China's naval build-up, the island's navy announced Tuesday. 

Wednesday 1020P Eastern (720P Pacific Time):  Charles Ortel, Newport Value Partners managing director, in re:  how the problems in Europe are affecting Asia--China, India, and Japan.  European mkts  in turmoil; Italy is in parlous condition; France and germany are pals - yes?  Structural problems: global labor mkt, where US and European workers are vastly overpaid compared to workers elsewhere - ten times what you can pay elsewhere In India, the labor force participation rate is very small, there's a vast overhang. real problem is that govt participation i economies is vastly too large. The second major structural imbalance is unwillingness to recognize risk. Investors assume that the US is he safest place - put the US is in desperate straits The entire Senate voted s the president's budget. Every conceivable trick has been played and not worked; war on capitalism waged inside the US and Europe. On 1 Dec 2011, I issued a report: fear that we're on the edge of a second Great Depression.    always have some glimmer of false hope that lets us go to sleep at night. I've been suspicious of Chinese numbers since 2008. Chinese accounting is beyond Enron.  For one thing, can't have persistent growth with a one-child  policy.  Japan: since 1989 economic suicide, I fear a huge Black Swan en route; the meltdown was far ore serious than was admitted, are hugely dependent on imported oil. Greece is in a better position than Japan.

Wednesday 1035P Eastern  (735P Pacific Time): Jamil Anderlini, Financial Times, in Beijing, in re: Zhou Yongkang - China's powerful chief of domestic security  (in charge of all the police, spies, courts) has relinquished day-to-day control of the country's police, courts and spy networks in the wake of the most serious political scandal to hit the country in decades, according to senior Communist party members. Purge of Zhou began before Chen, but Chen's amazing trip was an addtl major blow to Zhou. Xi is stronger, is aligned with Hu, is towing the Party line. Watch: railroads, electricity, and new loans for economic numbers.  It;s not that the banks won't lend - its that people don;t want to borrow, which is more worrisome.  RR dropped 50 basis points over  the weekend.  Analysts were wrong about the economy; now it; clear that they were wrong about governmental transition. This is a Medieval system that cannot function in the contemporary world. Massively widespread view within China: too sclerotic. Superstitious, nontransparent, prone to violence, court politics, military rule. Rumors abt the Standing Committee: collapse? "No, Cassandra! Pull your skirts tight."

"A group of Communist Party elders has issued a daring open letter calling for the removal of China's top security official, amid political upheaval ahead of a once-a-decade leadership transition. The calls for the sacking of Zhou Yongkang, one of China's top nine leaders, are closely linked to the recent fall of Bo Xilai -- another high-ranking official -- which triggered the nation's biggest political scandal in decades. Zhao Zhengrong -- a retired anti-corruption official from Zhaotong city in the southwestern province of Yunnan -- told AFP he and 15 other party members had sent the proposal advocating Zhou's removal to higher authorities. "We are demanding this because Zhou Yongkang directed the 'Chongqing model' and supported Bo Xilai. They are liars, they are of the same ilk," Zhao said. Two other signatories to the open letter confirmed it to AFP."

Wednesday 1050P Eastern (750P Pacific Time): Joseph Sternberg, WSJ, Hong Kong, in re: Japan: nuclear, fossil fuels, renewables - now subject to widespread debate, whereas formerly it was always a bunch of pols making secret decisions. If we get through brownouts this summer, we'll see how it all works. 

 

Wednesday 1105P  Eastern (805PPacific Time): The Battle of the Tanks: Kursk, 1943 by Lloyd Clark; 1 of 4

Wednesday 1120P Eastern (820P Pacific Time): The Battle of the Tanks: Kursk, 1943 by Lloyd Clark; 2 of 4

Wednesday 1135P Eastern  (835P Pacific Time): The Battle of the Tanks: Kursk, 1943 by Lloyd Clark; 3 of 4

Wednesday 1150P Eastern  (850P Pacific Time): The Battle of the Tanks: Kursk, 1943 by Lloyd Clark; 4 of 4

 

Wednesday/Thurs 1205A  Eastern (905 Pacific Time):  James Taranto, WSJ, in re: the Obama campaign  attacks the New York Times; doubts in New York and Washington about Obama re-elect

Wednesday/Thurs  1220A Eastern (920 Pacific Time):  Randall Archibold, NYT Mexico City, in re; the massacres continue.

Wednesday/Thurs  1235A  Eastern (935P Pacific Time):  Jeff Bliss, The Bliss Index, in re: Air Google and NASA sweetheart deal.

Wednesday/Thurs  1250A  Eastern (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt

..  ..  .. 

Music

Ajax and Cassandra.

Hour 1
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol by Michael Giacchino
Contact by Alan Silvestri

Hour 2
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon by Tan Dun
The Last Emperor by David Byrne, Ryuichi Sakamoto, and Cong Su

Hour 3
Valkyrie by John Ottman
Defiance by James Newton Howard

Hour 4
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy by Alberto Iglesias
Starship Troopers by Basil Poledouris
Antarctica by Vangelis

 

Switchman throwing a switch at Chicago and Northwest Railway Company's Proviso yard. Chicago, Illinois, April 1943. Reproduction from color slide. Photo by Jack Delano. Prints and Photographs Division, Library of Congress. 

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW podcast link:

http://wabcradio.com/sectional.asp?id=33447

 

Co-host: Larry Kudlow, The Kudlow Report, CNBC

Tuesday 905P Eastern Time:  David Kotok, Cumberland Associates, in re: Worldwide liquidity. Looks to me as though the Fed is finished easing. The ECB is not. Gold: lot of conversation about Europeans' selling gold to get cash. Greece has 280 tons of gold, won't sell.  Eke the Portuguese and Spanish. Indian buyers are on the sidelines for other economic reasons.  ECB: Italy is the third-largest debtor in the world.   Gurus spoke of 1450 S&P; we have a 2% economy, not much growth right now. A 2% economy with a 2% inflation rate.  We're staying in the US stock market.  Unwillingness to [collaborate] on both sides of the aisle.  Spain is solvent, has a liquidity problem; Italy breaks the bank.  The problem isn't Greece - it's Italy: it's large, and their policies are dead wrong. Accelerate the downward spiral. 

Rural school children. San Augustine County, Texas, April 1943. Reproduction from color slide. Photo by John Vachon. Prints and Photographs Division, Library of Congress. 

Tuesday 920P Eastern Time:  McKay Coppins, Buzzfeed, in re: the new Romney ad on the "23 million" - the number of unemployed and underemployed Americans, and those who've given up and dropped out of the labor force ("worker participation rate is the lowest in thirty years"). Tells the story of three individuals, one of whom will take any work, including occasionally digging graves. Romney camp responds with extreme alacrity - sometimes in twenty-four hours or less.  Obamistas accuse Romney of putting Seamus on the car roof; Romniacs dig up footage of Obama eating dog meat in Indonesia.  Blindingly-fast turnarounds.

Tuesday 935P Eastern Time:  John Taylor, Hoover Institution, and recipient of the 2012 Friedrich Hayek Prize for his book, First Principles; in re:  the unemployed are discouraged, dropping out of labor force. Benefits make it slightly easier, but not a happy story.  Yes, we're giving people incentives not to work -- 55% of American families get some sort of support from the federal govt ("the entitlement society") -- but the real problem is our weak aeconomy. Two per cent is so subpar compared to our history. This is unique. I think the problem is the policies that are slowing things down. Putting money in people's pockets works up to a limit, and I think we're well past the limit. Right now, some people lose money by taking a job; however, the weak economy is the issue. In my book, I propose more rules, more predictability. Pretty straightforward; Hayek spoke of this.   LK: At the end of the year, tax cuts and debt limit run out; can this freeze business and hiring?   JT: Huge uncertainty and unpredictability. It all depends on the election. Gov Romney is fairly close to what Paul Ryan wants to do; if he wins, we'll go that direction; if not, not.  There's a way to compromise on Medicare to make the program better; compromise can be tricky.

Tuesday 950P Eastern Time:  Larry Kudlow, in re: JB: I heard Prof Taylor say that a grave and sincere compromise offered to the White House will not work.  LK: maybe not that strong.  Increased capital gains and dividends taxes are in the Obama position. You cannot tax capital. This worries me - a lot of months before November; stocks could drop another 20% and really hurt the economy.  Back-to-back sub-par jobs number - April and May - have hurt Obama.  Gasoline price isn't yet a game-changer. Hard to believe that anyone thinks Pres Obama knows what he's talking about on the economy, and the gay marriage issue also hurt him. CBS-New York Times poll. rasmussen: likely voters, 47 Obama, 52 Romney; another, 37 Obama.

Tuesday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and Lara Brown Villanova, in re: The success of the USA is that we have this [enormous] opera [of a national election] every four years and without gunplay.  CBS/NYT poll in which Romney leads a bit, incl with women: Obama campaign calls it a "bad poll." Can the Obama campaign hope to win by attacking? No. The White House has made it easy for the Republicans, but don't know that because they don't know what they're selling -- healthcare is about to be overturned by the Supreme Court and the economy stinks, so they seem to have nowhere to turn but class warfare. You have to play the hand you're dealt.  WH is living in a bubble, doesn't seem to know what Americans are thinking.

Street corner. Dillon, Montana, August 1942. Reproduction from color slide. Photo by Russell Lee. Prints and Photographs Division, Library of Congress.jpg

Tuesday 1020P (720P Pacific Time): continued. Mr Obama must hold Pennsylvania. Mr Romney must hold Ohio. Pennsylvania is wobbly. The Romney team looked to have stumbled during the primaries, but in fact was pulling punches so he [wouldn't alienate any] Republican.  Team were well prepared for the long run, never wanted to be too nasty.  Extremely sharp team; nothing meek or weak about them. Social media are designed for elections. Romney put up a duelling-steel mills ad today; same team as before. Obama camp seems to be surprised at the capability of the Romney media crew, having expected them to be weak and awkward.  So far, no response to the "23 million" [unemployed and underemployed].  Expect Obama attacks on Bain Capital. Stuck with arguing a counterfactual: without or deeds, the economy would now be much worse; we did bail out the auto industry - we killed bin Laden and saved Detroit.

Tuesday 1035P (735P Pacific Time):  Bill Roggio, Long War Journal, in re: Pakistanis averred that US friendly fire killed many Pakistani civilians. On-again/off-again negotiations are on right now: Pakistan asks for $365mil in order to reopen supply routes.  For half a year, statements issued that everything's working out better. Relations have badly deteriorated over the last year. "We have transactional relations, not strategic relations" - as in, "You pay us, we'll do something." Al Qaeda;  Taliban; Mullah Zakir.  Gitmo. Drone strikes. Yemen. Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula: thought to be the source of the next major attack on the US. Yemen: a rogue state. CENTCOM to move command structure there? US troops on the ground in the capital, Sana'a; rebels headquartered in the south. Yemeni military is fractured; president there has made a verbal commitment to fight al Qaeda. Had training camps there for years; Yemen is an absolute mess. Iranians pushing weapons to the Houthis. CENTCOM publicly is quiet about this; however, they say yes, this is the next theater after Afghanistan (and all gains made in Afghanistan will be erased when we leave).  Yemen: 26 mil people.  Sana'a is rich with AK-47-carrying gangs.  American public at large is quite unprepared for Yemen. Also: Somalia, Northern Africa, and others to come; al Qaeda certainly is not dead.

Tuesday 1050P (750P Pacific Time):  Hotel California. Devin Nunes (CA-21) and Jeff Bliss, The Bliss Index, in re: it isn't working. Jerry Brown's blunt an suspicious revelations that  her;s a larger budget gap than hitherto has been known.  Governor says that if California doesn't accept his cuts and tax hikes, he'll have to cut into K-12 education plus first responders.  Now it's a $16 bil shortfall.   When the deficit was "only"$9 bil, his proposed tax increase did not cover that amt. California is now the place of the megarich, public employee unions, and the very poor.  Crazy political discussions on kids' menus instead of on the pension bomb. Not $100-200 bil deficit in pensions. many citizens are just shocked; others see this as a cynical attempt to further the governor's tax proposal. He's a pragmatist, understands that lot of things have to be moved on the Democratic side of the Capitol - cutbacks on a lot of expenses, but will have to be much more draconian than that if things are gonna work out.  Competing Democratic ballot initiatives.  Gov Brown is an old 'Seventies-style pol, and his policies have been [highjacked] by the extreme left.

Tuesday 1105P (805P Pacific Time): 

You Will See Fire: A Search for Justice in Kenya by Christopher Goffard, 1 of 2

Tuesday 1120P (820P Pacific Time): 

You Will See Fire: A Search for Justice in Kenya by Christopher Goffard, 2 of 2

Tuesday 1135P (835P Pacific Time):  Bob Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Russians and ISS; antimatter engine; SpaceX.

Tuesday 1150P (850P Pacific Time): Steven Erlanger, NYT, in re: 

 

Tuesday/Wed 1205A (905 Pacific Time):  David Kotok, Cumberland Associates, in re: Worldwide liquidity. Looks to me as though the Fed is finished easing. The ECB is not. Gold: lot of conversation about Europeans' selling gold to get cash. Greece has 280 tons of gold, won't sell.  Eke the Portuguese and Spanish. Indian buyers are on the sidelines for other economic reasons.  ECB: Italy is the third-largest debtor in the world.   Gurus spoke of 1450 S&P; we have a 2% economy, not much growth right now. A 2% economy with a 2% inflation rate.  We're staying in the US stock market.  Unwillingness to [collaborate] on both sides of the aisle.  Spain is solvent, has a liquidity problem; Italy breaks the bank.  The problem isn't Greece - it's Italy: it's large, and their policies are dead wrong. Accelerate the downward spiral.

Tuesday/Wed  1220A (920 Pacific Time):  McKay Coppins, Buzzfeed, in re: the new Romney ad on the "23 million" - the number of unemployed and underemployed Americans, and those who've given up and dropped out of the labor force ("worker participation rate is the lowest in thirty years"). Tells the story of three individuals, one of whom will take any work, including occasionally digging graves. Romney camp responds with extreme alacrity - sometimes in twenty-four hours or less.  Obamistas accuse Romney of putting Seamus on the car roof; Romniacs dig up footage of Obama eating dog meat in Indonesia.  Blindingly-fast turnarounds.

Tuesday/Wed  1235A (935P Pacific Time):  John Taylor, Hoover Institution, and recipient of the 2012 Friedrich Hayek Prize for his book, First Principles; in re:  the unemployed are discouraged, dropping out of labor force. Benefits make it slightly easier, but not a happy story.  Yes, we're giving people incentives not to work -- 55% of American families get some sort of support from the federal govt ("the entitlement society") -- but the real problem is our weak aeconomy. Two per cent is so subpar compared to our history. This is unique. I think the problem is the policies that are slowing things down. Putting money in people's pockets works up to a limit, and I think we're well past the limit. Right now, some people lose money by taking a job; however, the weak economy is the issue. In my book, I propose more rules, more predictability. Pretty straightforward; Hayek spoke of this.   LK: At the end of the year, tax cuts and debt limit run out; can this freeze business and hiring?   JT: Huge uncertainty and unpredictability. It all depends on the election. Gov Romney is fairly close to what Paul Ryan wants to do; if he wins, we'll go that direction; if not, not.  There's a way to compromise on Medicare to make the program better; compromise can be tricky.  

Tuesday/Wed  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. Simon Constable, WSJ/Dow Jones video star, in re: the JP Morgan Chase fiasco.

..  ..  .. 

Farewell to AR 1476.

Music

Hour 1
Skyline by Matthew Margeson
Anonymous by Thomas Wander and Harold Kloser

Hour 2
Open Range by Michael Kamen
Burn After Reading by Carter Burwell
Hotel California by The Eagles

Hour 3
Tears of the Sun by Hans Zimmer
Star Trek by Michael Giacchino
Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows by Hans Zimmer

Hour 4
Frost/Nixon by Hans Zimmer

..  ..  ..  

 

ice haloes around the sun. On April 4th, Rovaniemi, Finland.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW podcast link:

http://wabcradio.com/sectional.asp?id=33447

 

Co-hosts:

John Avlon, CNN and the Daily Beast

Nan Hayworth, New York 19th District

Gordon Chang, Forbes.com and The Daily

 

Monday 905P Eastern Time (605P Pacific Time):   .Greg Zuckerman, WSJ, inre: JPMorgan Chase loss of $2bil-plus.  Ina Drew, a revered senior executive (making $31mi over two years) until thirteen minutes ago, is excommunicated; others will be fired, but they're juniors.  Department was betting; happened to bet that the economy would improve (bad idea).  CDS (credit default swaps) are excellent, even naked CDSs; but rather than making loans, the bank was making bets. 

Monday 920P Eastern Time (620P Pacific Time):   .Satyajit Das,  author and consultant/investor in financial derivatives and risk management. in re:  Voldemort blt a position so big that it'll take days to unwind it. "They never learn. Pity."  Why is JPMorgan sitting on $350bil?  1. They're terrified, and keep liquidity. 2. The Fed has put enormous pressure on them. 3. The Fed has created washes of liquidity. Problem is, JPM has shareholders and have to make a profit.  While JPM is enormously at fault - what about all the others? Volcker Rules.  Even if you went with the Volcker Rule, Dodd-Frank wouldn't solve it. I think that [what was lost] was just cash they had sitting aound. Normally, hedges reduces your returns, but they tried to make a profit.  If you call it a poor but defensible hedge, I take a dim view that. Ethics of the individuals concerned. Our regulators don't have the skill base to regulate this sort of thing.  So what are we to do? If we ban them, there'll be consequences -many unintended consequences.  716 of Dodd-Frank*. The unknown unknowns are huge here. There are problems in other firms. JPM is a market maker; if they rein in, it'll be felt widely.  JP Morgan has plunged from the frying pan into the witch-burning at the stake

..  ..  ..  

Dodd Frank Act Section 716 SEC. 716. 

PROHIBITION AGAINST FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BAILOUTS OF SWAPS ENTITIES.  (a) PROHIBITION ON FEDERAL ASSISTANCE.-- Notwithstanding any other provision of law (including regulations), no Federal assistance may be provided to any swaps entity with respect to any swap, security-based swap, or other activity of the swaps entity.

..  ..  ..  

Moon haloes among them. On April 5th, rising above the Brunt Ice Shelf in Antarctica.

Monday 935P Eastern Time (635P Pacific Time):   Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, in re:  Change - and some hope: the Rasmussen Tracking Poll recently had Romney up 50 to 42 over Obama. Why has Barack Obama plunged in the polls these last few days?

Monday 950P Eastern Time (650P Pacific Time):   .Jeff Bliss, The Bliss Indx, in re:  Jerry Brown has made a YouTube video on the California budget. Public employee pensions as the population ages.  Where are we gonna get the money for all this? A lot of things are coming due. "We'll have to do drastic cutting - everything but K-12 and emergency first responders - and increase taxes," says Gov Brown. [What if Jerry Brown were in charge of the ECB or Greece?  -ed.]  "Gov Brown's schema can't possibly work:"  -- Nan Hayworth.

California's budget deficit has swelled to $16 billion after tax collections trailed projections amid the tepid economic recovery, Governor Jerry Brown said in a comment on his Twitter post. The shortfall has widened from the $9.2 billion Brown estimated in January, after lawmakers resisted the Democrat's call for cost cuts, the federal government blocked other reductions and April income-tax revenue missed budget forecasts by $2 billion. On May 14, he's set to unveil a revised spending plan and to say how he would erase the gap. 

 

Monday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  Taegan Goddard, PoliticalWire, in re:   .Economy slightly improves, price of gasoline sinks; why is the president declining in the polls? So many moving parts, can't  be sure what caused the bump-up for Mr Romney. In 2004, then-Sen Obama indicated on a form that he was in support of gay marriage.  In a poll today, 62% put economy and jobs at the top of their lists; 7% interested primarily in gay marriage.

Obama Safely Ahead in Minnesota A new SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota shows President Obama with a comfortable lead over Mitt Romney, 52% to 38%.   

Monday 1020P (720P Pacific Time):   .continued.    "I think I'm better suited to stay where I am in the Senate. The folks in Ohio expect me to stick around and do my job."  -- Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), quoted by The Hill, giving the preferred answer to questions asked of possible vice presidential running mates. Last week we  . . .  and sequestered . . .   stupid politically.  Tax holiday extension.  Senate and House leaderships disagree.  

Robertson Backs Romney Pat Robertson threw his support to Mitt Romney's presidential candidacy -- but only because Jesus Christ isn't running, BuzzFeed reports.  Said Robertson: "The question is, if you have two candidates, you don't have Jesus running against someone else. You have Obama running against Romney."   

Monday 1035P (735P Pacific Time):   .Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:   Iran boasts that the US has abandoned Israel. The names and addresses of 60 Iranian experts employed by 11 different Iranian agencies under the control of the Iranian Defense Ministry were revealed Saturday, May 12, by the main Iranian opposition Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK/PMOI).   

In a building whose plans are revealed, seven divisions devoted to weaponizing nuclear material; names of sixty scientists. Mtg today of Yemeni separatists in Beirut, financed by Iran under supervision of Hezbollah an IRGC.  White House says, We have to be clear that the IAEA is satisfied. Iran wil come in again w stalling tactic, an offer to do something short of delaying enrichment. Ergo, we'll lose six months.  WH has asked for multiple topics under discussion to be delayed for months. New in degree but not insubstance. We've come to this point many times - at each point, the West flinched.  Dissident groups. Sistani to be replaced by [Darudi?]  "Iran must stop the clock on uranium enrichment" -- Dennis Ross [see: Jerusalem Post]  - which accepts 5% enrichment. See Anthony Cordesman's paper: nuclear weapons represent a central part of Iran's strategic goals; allowing 5% gives them a chance to cheat.  Building in plans has seven divisions devoted to weaponizing; this must be discussed in Baghdad. Business men in Damascus and Aleppo are leaving, are supporting hte revolution .Puts more ressure ont he Iranians.

Monday 1050P (750P Pacific Time):  Gretchen Morgenson, WSJ, in re: Dimon insults Volcker and Fisher.  These banks are too big to manage. 

Monday 1105P (805P Pacific Time):   .Fraser Howie, managing director, CLSA, Singapore, and author, Red Capitalism; and Gordon Chang, in re:  As a practical matter, Premier Wen has no choice but to open the floodgates once again and, in some fashion, re-float the economy on a sea of newly printed renminbi. Three things to watch in China: electricity usage, rail volume for export, and new lending.  Electricity consumption usually outpaces economic growth; does this mean that growth is zero?  Rail freight is down 32% in April.   Import number for April was supposed to be 11%, came in at 0.3.  Expect downsize surprises: most observers around are looking backwards; China may not contract, but certainly diminution of growth. Europe cannot be a positive, and it's not even neutral. European situation will only get worse over e summer. French banking stock are well below the crisis of last fall.   There are a lot of smart people in China who get it, but the system [blocks good reporting]. Hangover from the Party binge they were on for a decade.  During April, more than $100 bil left household deposits. People are fleeing the Chinese banks. Banking system has been a pillar of the State-owned economy, which channeled household deposit into State project.  Anything that harms the liquidity of the State banking system is a problem.  In a globalized world, if China isn't consuming, then there's an impact.   US is a very flexible economy and can respond swiftly, which China cannot; is a lot more like Europe in its social contract. How does the world adjust to a China that isn't gobbling up raw materials? Chinese growth at 5% - let alone 15 or negative - will have a strong effect.  As soon as China got into the WTO, there was a huge shift in China. These are volatile numbers. but it shows that even China is not immune to booms and busts, has not conquered the laws of economics.

Cut RRRs (reserver requirement ratios) of banks.  

Monday 1120P (820P Pacific Time):   .Gordon Chang, in re: Rumor from Jamil Anderlini in Beijing: Zhou Yangkang, was in charge of internal security, has been relieved of his responsibilities in response to the Chen Guangcheng scandal. Recall reports of gunfire in Zhong Nan Hai, HQ in the center of Beijing; we didn't put it on air but the reports kept coming in. Jamil went with it and no one has pushed back.  Almost an assassination of Xi Jinping. Third set of coup rumors in China this year. Jan 1 rumors likely to have been true. Military is now deeply involved in leadership struggles - a Maoist system dressed up for the Twenty-first Century.  

Monday 1135P (835P Pacific Time):   .Aaron Klein, WABC, in re: preparation for NATO summit in Chicago (May 20, 21), protests planned; days of rage?  Catholic Worker in Chicago. Ruckus Society. Occupy. The Midwest Academy (Heather Booth). Barricades. Obstacles in delegates's path.  Storming hotels. Chaos.  Mona Khalidi (Mrs Rashid Khalidi) (frequent hosts to Obama family): protesting the president's policies.  False flag op? Pres Obama's old guard in Chicago is back, opposing meetings. Rahm Emmanuel was the genius who lobbied very heavily for both G8 and NATO in Chicago at about the same time.  Aaron Klein suggests that we can look to considerable violence over the weekend.  The AMA will close down for that duration.

Monday 1150P (850P Pacific Time):   .Reza Kahlili, author, A Time to Betray, in re; Iran prepares for nuclear weapons. Showdown on May 23 at Baghdad?  

Monday/Tues 1205A (905 Pacific Time):

Consent of the Networked: The Worldwide Struggle for Internet Freedom by Rebecca MacKinnon

Monday/Tues  1220A (920 Pacific Time):

Consent of the Networked: The Worldwide Struggle for Internet Freedom by Rebecca MacKinnon

  

Monday/Tues  1235A (935P Pacific Time):   .Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, in re:  Change - and some hope: the Rasmussen Tracking Poll recently had Romney up 50 to 42 over Obama. Why has Barack Obama plunged in the polls these last few days?  

Monday/Tues  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt.  Michael de la Merced, in re: Yahoo fires Scott Thompson over a transcript.

..  ..  ..  

NASA Bridge of the Space-Shuttle-Endeavor.

Music

Hour 1

The Three Musketeers (2011) by Paul Haslinger

John Carter by Michael Giacchino

 

Hour 2

Brake by Brian Tyler

The Thing by Marco Beltrami

 

Hour 3

The Grey by Marc Streitfeld

Romance Cantabile by Ludwig von Beethoven

 

Hour 4

Mission Impossible III by Michael Giacchino

All the King's Men by James Horner

  

 

 

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW podcast link:

http://wabcradio.com/sectional.asp?id=33447

 

Friday 905P Eastern Time: .McKay Coppins, Buzzfeed, in re:  Romney to speak at Liberty University, where they teach against the "Mormon cult"

Friday 920P Eastern Time:  .Gordon Chang, Forbes.com and The Daily, in re: China's governance deteriorates.

Friday 935P Eastern Time: .Tunku Varadarajan, Newsweek International, in re: around the world from Indian cricket to London's fears of a European conquest

Friday 950P Eastern Time:  .Peter Berkowitz, Hoover, in re: why the Federalist Papers are not taught at law schools

 

Friday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  .Greg Zuckerman, WSJ, in re: who made the money that JB Morgan lost with London whale trades, and how were they hedged?  Business as usual.

Friday 1020P (720P Pacific Time):  .Greg Quinn, Bloomberg Ottawa, in re: Canadian energy trade and pipeline politics 

Friday 1035P (735P Pacific Time):  .Bob Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: commercial space enterprise; and who won the ticket to ISS?

Friday 1050P (750P Pacific Time):  .Henry Miller, Hoover, in re: excise tax on medical devices drives business out of US; loss to states, no gain.

 

Friday 1105P (805P Pacific Time): .

The Infinity Puzzle: Quantum Field Theory and the Hunt for an Orderly Universe by Frank E. Close, 1 of 5

Friday 1120P (820P Pacific Time): .

The Infinity Puzzle: Quantum Field Theory and the Hunt for an Orderly Universe by F. E. Close, 2  of 5

Friday 1135P (835P Pacific Time): .

The Infinity Puzzle: Quantum Field Theory and the Hunt for an Orderly Universe by F. E. Close, 3 of 5

Friday 1150P (850P Pacific Time):  .

The Infinity Puzzle: Quantum Field Theory and the Hunt for an Orderly Universe by F. E. Close, 4 of 5

Friday/Sat 1205A (905 Pacific Time):  .

The Infinity Puzzle: Quantum Field Theory and the Hunt for an Orderly Universe by F. E. Close, 5 of 5

Friday/Sat  1220A (920 Pacific Time): .Ken Croswell, Science magazine, in re: hot Jupiters and SuperEarths - not in our Solar System

Friday/Sat  1235A (935P Pacific Time):  .Tunku Varadarajan, Newsweek International, in re: around the world from Indian cricket to London's fears of a European conquest 

Friday/Sat  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. Eric Trager, Washington Institute, in re: Egyptian presidential debate: the leading candidates against the US and Israel

..  ..  .. 

Sunspot AR1476 with M CLASS and X CLASS flares. 

Music

Hour 1
The Painted Veil by Alexandre Desplat
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol by Michael Giacchino
Revolution by John Mock

Hour 2
Inside Man by Terence Blanchard
Star Trek by Michael Giacchino

Hour 3
X-Files by Mark Snow

Hour 4
A.I. by John Williams
John Carter by Michael Giacchino

.Alberta, Canada.

POTUS Obama in Afghanistan, May 1, 2012. 

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW podcast link:

http://wabcradio.com/sectional.asp?id=33447

 

Co-host: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com and The Daily

Wednesday 905P Eastern Time (605P Pacific Time): Bob Fu, president of ChinaAid, in re:  the latest developments on Chen Guangcheng: spoke with him this morning, he sounds well enough, is much concerned about the welfare of his family and colleagues. Intestinal bleeding is stopped; his damaged foot is partly repaired; he wishes to go to the United States. His elder brother and sister-in-law are both acing criminal indictments, brother in criminal detention,mother is genuine danger.  Jerry Cohen, described as Chen's lawyer, said Chen, wife and children will be allowed to leave China in about ten days. Depends on passports, of course; cd be issued in a day or less, but no word of passport yet; US presumably will fast-track visa issuance. Chinese govt is facing once-in-a-decade leadership transition; Chinese official sought asylum in Chengdu, and one of the top 25 cChinese leaders trying to destroy him. Political chaos time. Chinese govt and security apparatus have been preventing any US persons from visiting Mr Chen (via: Mr Posner & other NGO leaders). No one can reach his hospital  room. One Chinese human rights activist tried to visit him, was severely beaten, has lost his hearing. Nothing much improved since Shandong except Chen, himself, is not being tortured right now in hospital.

Wednesday 920P Eastern Time (620P Pacific Time):  Bhuchung Tsering, International Campaign for Tibet, in re: Chia's brutality inside Tibet. Report finds cultural genocide under way in Tibet: the very identity of Tibetan people is being threatened. Report speaks of effort to destroy Tibetan way of life and language. GC: Trying to eliminate Tibetans, entirely; replace them with Han Chinese. However, Tibetans now responding, are embracing their culture ore firmly. Section on resilience in our report: writers, artists; some even express their profound sentiments by self-immolation.  JB: Hu Jintao, in charge of Tibet in the 1980s, brutalized them.  Bo Xilai. Is Hu the same brutal leader in Beijing that he was in tibet?  BT: Some say the Chinese authorities are using Tibetans as guinea pigs to test their policies. Internet censorship.  GC: First they came for the Tibetans.  BT: When Chinese say "this is a country of rules, of laws" -- we want to look at a particular case to see how the Chinese govt is practicing what it preaches; leaves much to be desired. Not sticking to its own laws.  JB: The word of the Chinese authorities is worthless? BT: Unless they prove us wrong.  JB: You can't deal with a state that's meaningless. Standing Committee broke their agreement with the United Sates of America; if they lie  to the most powerful state on Earth, to whom do they tell the truth?

Wednesday 935P Eastern Time (635P Pacific Time):   David M. Livingston, The Space Show, in re:  nanosatellites;  cubesats. Army satellite the size of a loaf of bread (student build them). At major mtg, Reinventing Space, 2012, in Los Angeles, everyone agreed that commercial providers can do a better job than the govt can in any respects.

Wednesday 950P Eastern Time (650P Pacific Time):  Michael Auslin, AEI, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, in re: Security in East Asia, the First String of Pearls.  japan has nominally not had a military, only a "defense force" because of a constitutional prohibition against using force abroad. Multibllion-dollar force, very modern and well-trained. Need to meet the challenge China is presenting. No one really knows what happens when an advanced industrial society heads into a population decline (Japan, South Korea, China).  Japan "got rich before it got old."  Japan is ripe to use the most advanced network capabilities.  Agreement to move a Marine Air Wing from southern Okinawa to the north, was mishandled by Japan, had US going incircle for years. Now; de-link that from other US shifts. Will  move 9,000 Marines to Guam, and 4,000 will rotate throughout the Pacific.  China and Scarborough Shoals.    Senkakus covered by Article V of Japan-US alliance?  japanese would  be more worried if we didn't back up an alliance partner - Philippines - than if we did.  At this juncture, we now all need to stand together.   Regional training center on Okinawa.

We saw a lot of news about Prime Minister Noda's visit to Washington this week, but I believe what deserves more attention are the gradual changes the Japanese military is undergoing, which could potentially lead to Japan's playing a greater role in the Indo-Pacific region. Please see my article on this subject below, published on [see: ForeignPolicy.com]. 

The meeting of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda with Pres Obama and Secretary of State Clinton in Washington made few headlines this week, but quiet changes under way in Japan's decades-long tradition of pacifism will have profound implications for the balance of power in Asia.

 

Wednesday 1005P Eastern  (705P Pacific Time):  Phelim Kine, Human Rights Watch, in re: China's one-child policy, when in 1979 Deng Hsiao-p'ing reversed Mao's policy into one child per family; Chen Guangcheng alleged in a suit in Guangdong Province alleging that thousands of women had illegally been sterilized against their will. China now will be unable to replace its population; continues when unneeded because the existing pyramid of apparatchiks running the policy is an important control mechanism. Documented abuses, although some have been curtailed. As recently as 2005, Chen in one small corner of China found thousands of instances of forced abortion so how much do we really know?  Chen is blind and charismatic, but the policy he complains about is horribly intrusive into the most intimate relationships between a man and woman.  GC: My wife and I interviewed a very, very rich man in Shanghai; he spoke openly of everything but refused to say that he had more than one child.  PK: Chen's beef was egregious abuse of actual law by the state. 

Wednesday 1020P Eastern (720P Pacific Time):   Victor Shih, Northwestern University, in re: latest Chinese economic developments; how political infighting is affecting Beijing's economic decisions.  Is Chinese economy "rebalancing"?  Yes, by definition - externally; internally? Big engine of growth was investment, incl in infrastructure, but not clear that can continue; consumption by households may pick up the slack.  Two reductions in ratio reserves by banks, leading to a replenishment of money supply.  PBOC are loosening, but not in the most obvious way, which is further reduction in reserve ratios.  JB: Can we replace "rebalancing" with "we're stuck"?  VS: Second-largest economy in the world, has a lot of momentum.  restrictions on buying real estate; if those were relaxed, much investment there.  No delinkage between Chinese-OECD economies.

Wednesday 1035P Eastern  (735P Pacific Time):  Melinda Liu, Newsweek, in re: Chen Guangcheng's imprisonment in his house is replaced by incarceration in his hospital room.  Has to get passport, exit visa, US visa, and lane ticket. Everyone in limbo; people anxious.  Melissa Chan, al Jazeeea English: expelled; al J had to close its Beijing bureau. Progressively stronger media control since the Olympics. This is an unusual expulsion, first in 14 years. Still leadership by committee. Clearly, there are disagreements within the leadership.  During discussion in US embassy, State Security were arguing with Foreign Ministry reps. Not yet a fatal disintegration, but definitely  some cracks.  Bo Xilai was a maverick, wiretapping everyone incl his allies.  Security services essentially have said, No this guy is not leaving here.  Who benefits? To delay his departure and keep him confined is a show of control by security services, make others in the govt be uncomfortable.  Also saving face: for Chen to leave too soon after Clinton might be seen as too eager of China to accommodate the US; typically Chinese to keep things hanging.  Chen Guangcheng is very worried about his nephews; at least for them to have a good lawyer - which is extremely difficult. Nephew accused of attacking people with a knife and inflicting injury. He said men with clubs burst into his house and began beating people; he's in police custody. First lawyer his wife found is now under house arrest. Chen's lawyers were barred from the courtroom; his last lawyer was allowed at the last instant, couldn't even read the charges. Kangaroo court; nightmare system.  Seventeenth Party Congress delay means that bureaucrats are unable to reach consensus, e.g. on how many seats there'll be at the table.

Wednesday 1050P Eastern (750P Pacific Time):  Gordon Chang, in re:  Who is Zhou Yongkang, and why does State Security have veto power over the Standing Committee in Beijing?

 

Wednesday 1105P  Eastern (805PPacific Time):  

An American Betrayal: Cherokee Patriots and the Trail of Tears by Daniel Blake Smith, 1 of 4 

Wednesday 1120P Eastern (820P Pacific Time):    

An American Betrayal: Cherokee Patriots and the Trail of Tears by Daniel Blake Smith, 2 of 4 

Wednesday 1135P Eastern  (835P Pacific Time):  

An American Betrayal: Cherokee Patriots and the Trail of Tears by Daniel Blake Smith, 3 of 4 

Wednesday 1150P Eastern  (850P Pacific Time):  

An American Betrayal: Cherokee Patriots and the Trail of Tears by Daniel Blake Smith, 4 of 4 

 

Wednesday/Thurs 1205A  Eastern (905 Pacific Time):  Marc Coleman, Irish Newstalk radio, in re: How does Ireland see the French and Greek elections, and the euro crisis?

Wednesday/Thurs  1220A Eastern (920 Pacific Time):  Patrick MGeehan, NYT, in re: social media rules and New York CIty public school system.

Wednesday/Thurs  1235A  Eastern (935P Pacific Time):   David M. Livingston, The Space Show, in re:  nanosatellites;  cubesats. Army satellite the size of a loaf of bread (student build them). At major mtg, Reinventing Space, 2012, in Los Angeles, everyone agreed that commercial providers can do a better job than the govt can in any respects.

Wednesday/Thurs  1250A  Eastern (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt.  Ben Protess, NYT, in re: Dodd-Frank argued.

..  ..  ..  

Sunspot visible from Pacific.

Music

Hour 1
Robin Hood by Hans Zimmer
Cowboys & Aliens by Harry Gregson-Williams
The Last Samurai by Hans Zimmer

Hour 2
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy by Alberto Iglesias

Hour 3
The Last of the Mohicans by Randy Edelman and Trevor Jones

Hour 4
Gangs of New York by Howard Shore
A.I. by John Williams
John Carter by Michael Giacchino