Friday 10 April 2020
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Hour One
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block A: Devin Nunes, CA-22, in re: Billy Long, Congressman and world-champion auctioneer, is exceptionally talented, a good companion, and has a great sense of humor. Auctions are a major part of the economy.
Virus: In the San Joaquin Valley, everyone is sheltering in place, authorities are talking about fines. A study: people came up with 2 million deaths, then down to one million, and today they’re wherever they landed as the make it up. I don’t believe that patient zero in was in the nursing home. If it's as contagious as I believe it is, then I think the data will show that deaths occurred in December, January, and February. There are bogus stories that Trump knew of this early on, which don't credit. John Bachelor and Gordon Chang learned of it in December and spoke of it then,. Didn’t have much information beyond the basics. There was a lot more information available to Beijing. On my podcast, we’ve done a deep dive into everything China, including the virus. In view of how Chinese travellers move around the world, it’s almost impossible to believe that the first death in the US was in Seattle. We probably shouldn’t pin our hopes on a vaccine as much as identifying who’s immune already and who is positive for now.
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block B: Devin Nunes, CA-22, in re: A story that floats above us unfinished, IN the last hours, AG Barr has suggested that something was seriously wrong in 20216: __________ “One of the greatest travesties in American history.” Further, he believes that there’ s a possibility that laws were broken and, if so, there will be defendants and trials. Who was Joseph Mifsud? What was the role of Australia in this scandal? and so on. AG Barr said: Yes, we’ll get those answers. And sounds as though there’ll be criminal indictments. and more, as the IG report is released. It's good to know that the AG has gone beyond a report and is [moving forward]. What started as a dirty trick by Hillary Clinton and Fusion GPS. Carter Page had no contact with Russia, nor did anyone around him. George Papadopoulos denied a conversation that he had a conversation with a diplomat from Australia. “If you think Clinton paying for the dossier is, bad, wait for the rest.”
For a secret court to work [FISA], you have to be sure that all the information is presented, because there’s no attorney for the defense. The Russia hoax is alive and well.
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block C: Gregory R Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs, in re: The virus in Africa. China’s aggressive exploitation of Africa fr its riches and because of [poor] governance. Has the PRC been pulling back its loans since 2018? Yes, worsened in the last quarter of 209, where the Belt and Road investments declined about 80% in funding, The sentimental aspect has been worsening for some time: PRC assumed a suzerain position in African after 2012. With no ethical oversight, we saw election fraud rise exponentially on the Continent since 2012. Hands-off ethics were accompanied by hands-on economics. Several million Chinese moved in, far more than ever there were Europeans. They were withdrawing money and taking the jobs, and putting in inferior-quality goods.
The African nations can't afford to repay their debts, which will hurt China. In Sierra Leone and Nigeria, PPP is coming in but being shunned by Africans because of rumors that the masks have been infused with Covid19.
Huge Chinese presence in Ethiopia, were going to build a large spur in the Continent-wide railroad, but when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came in, he began seriously to pull back, to disentangle. Virus has obliged him to delay upcoming elections; he’s working to create national political parties instead of ethnic and tribal parties, He’s so far refused to privatize property seized by the Communists 46 years ago, and he needs to return property seized from the Selassies and many others.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: talks have broken down as Egypt threatened war with Ethiopia., which eventually said, Look, we’re just going to complete the dam and fill it with water. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is still wasting a lot of water. The Aswan Dam was terribly inefficient (built by the then-Soviets) and has created a lot of its water problems, so they have no major case to make that they're being robbed of water from the Blue Nile. So it's funding the Oromo Liberation Front. Unfortunately, the US is supporting Egypt: you need to control not only the Suez Canal, but the entrance to the Red Sea, which Ethiopia is unusually well-positioned to do.
Ethiopia to Press Ahead with Africa’s Biggest Hydropower Dam https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/ethiopia-vows-to-pres...
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block D: Gregory R Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs, in re: Cyril Ramaphosa’s speech; public has lost confidence. Virus: State-owned enterprises are collapsing, including the airline. Most vulnerable populations are especially the townships and countryside, as many have long-existing maladies, The water has lead and contaminants. Another wave of illegal migration in from Zimbabwe. Massive suffering, no money, We're seeing an increase in crime. The police forces are galvanized to protect society and property, but it's a no-win situation. It’s at a frightening level now.
Nigeria: Is critically dependent for its stability on the price of oil; Niger Delta light sweet has gone down to 1$18 Bbl; started the year at $61. Pres Mohammedu Buhari has increased the corruption, allowed the military to skim from budgets. The irony is that the army is a highly competent force, up to the Colonel level. Fight against Boko Haram is a disaster, and huge losses of troops—the most recent tragedy may even have been friendly fire They could have eliminated Boko Haram by now, but corruption incl the chief of staff has prevented that.
Nigeria has a heavy debt load. China has flattened its demand for resources; letting it all fall apart gradually, esp in South Aica, its largest client state.
Hour Two
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block A: Dan Henninger, Wonder Land in the WSJ, in re” Where were the alarm bells? What did we miss? Who was in a position to know and shape the future so it won’t happen again? Depends on who’s doing the finding: Mrs Pelosi? It’ll all be Pres Trump’s fault. On 6 Jan, I had a conversation with Thaddeus McCotter and Gordon Chang; we spoke of Wuhan. Gordon raised the matter of SARS, but we didn’t have enough information to raise an alarm. We saw it and talked about it, but didn't do more; didn't know where to go to complain. Note the disincentive to react to news of a pandemic: damage tourism, and the like.
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block B: Jeff Bliss, Pacific Watch, in re: In a photo I see Los Angeles—it's gorgeous. What’s it missing? So clean, sky so blue, birds singing, no traffic. Reminds me of the mountains. I feel as though I’m with Thoreau, hanging out at the pond. A big part is that China’s emissions have drastically cut back; China’s coal and industrial pollution have long damaged California.
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block C: Chris Riegel, Scala.com, in re: The economy.
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block D: Jim McTague, novelist, formerly of Barrons; and Brett Arends, MarketWatch; in re: Larry Kudlow suggested four to eight weeks till reopening.
Or National Pandemic Readjustment Period to end June 8. . . . So far, no financial firm has failed; because the Fed is trying to save them by artificially inflating assets again: Buy bonds with no collateral—the Fed becomes a bad bank. Grant’s cartoon: little boy opens the door, finds a man saying, “Hello, I’m from the Fed and we're buying baseball cards.”
Today we don't have a bond mkt or a stock mkt the way we used to. Today, our stock market is a fiction. We’re making this up as we go along. Who’ll buy all the assets from the Fed? Will the US taxpayer end up eating the debt? [Yes. —ed.]. When long-term interest rates go up, I’ll believe we have markets again. Currently, rates are lower than even they were in the 1930s.
Hour Three
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block A: Michael E Vlahos, Johns Hopkins, in re: The new American civil war—does it exist? The pandemic, itself, has become a battlefield. Civil wars are abut way of life and ethos: who we are and where we’re going, It adds up to a sort of religious conflict. Religious conflicts (“the most bitter”) are over the most existential bases of who we are and how we live. Here, the bitterness and depth within the American ethos is being highlighted, over virtue and truth. The current great plague is not being seen as the threat that unifies us but as a cudgel that can be picked up and used. A battle to bring righteousness and virtue to America, where only your side can do this, and the other side represents evil because it intends to destroy one’s own truth. In Vichy France, one side was happy to see the Germans come in because it got rid of the opposition Similar today to blue going so far as to wish economic collapse in order to get rid of President Trump. Hurt the nation as a whole as that will help them assume power and destroy the enemy, Orange Man Bad. (Bill Maher)
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block B: Michael E Vlahos, Johns Hopkins, in re: No one can know that s/he’s in a civil war at he time; can be sure only in historical perspective. Blue criticism of Pres Trump for not foreseeing Pearl Harbor, and for speaking favorably of chloroquine–has he invested in it?? They have to discredit but run the risk of being caught in untruths. Today, California and New York governors suggest that national calamity is being advanced by Washington; California is an independent nation-state and will conduct its foreign affairs as it wishes—a countervailing power to the federal govt; nullification process toward national separation and even secession. Highlights the objectives of blue to make this crisis their instrumentality to achieve a larger end.
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block C: Gene Marks, The Guardian, & Philadelphia Inquirer; in re: Gene at the front line of American business. Many small businesses may not reopen. What does this mean about recovery?
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block D: Gene Marks, The Guardian, & Philadelphia Inquirer; in re: Amazon and its people-less stores—pick an item, scan it, and exit. Telecommuting does, in fact, work; it’s having an enormous change on how we’ll operate. Gartner found that CFOs say that telecommuting is the way forward.
Hour Four
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block A: Robert Zimmerman, BehidtheBlack.com, in re: Russia has launched to the ISS, had three astronauts on board — two Russians and one American; last American to go to our ISS unless we send him on a US-made craft. SpaceX. Space Force.
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block B: Robert Zimmerman, BehidtheBlack.com, in re: Space exploring.
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block C: Charlie Gasparino, Fox Business News, in re: The small business loans, to companies with 500 or fewer employees. So far, it's a mess. The businesses blame the banks; the banks blame the SBA and Treasury. If the govt doesn't get its act together . . . Banks are heavily regulated: in order to lend to a new person who isn't a client, you have to do six weeks of due diligence. That has not been relaxed. This is crazy stuff. A recession could turn into a depression. Major investors do not see a V-shaped recovery; more like a hockey stick. This could be really hairy. If small bz don’t have access to massive loans, forgiveness, QE . . . Five hundred billion out of a $20 trillion economy; let’s say small bz is $10 trillion. The govt is spending $500 bil. The forms ask: “Are you under indictment? Will you buy only American-made goods?” What?! The SBA is [using a paddle to beat people away from the lifeboat.] Joe Biden may be able to get through this election sleeping. In April of 2020 New York is a ghost town.
Friday 10 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block D: Ken Croswell, astronomer, The Lives of Stars, in re: The Milky Way; we live in an arm of it. The diameter of the Milky Way is 1.9 million light years +/- 0.4 We live in the Disc of Stars. Scientists use both theory and observation to calculate. Andromeda is perhaps a bit larger than the Milky Way; the two will merge in a few billion years. The larger the Milky Way, the more massive it is, and so the more luminous, and the more galaxies should be revolving around it; we know of 60 satellite galaxies, but there may be 300. Satellite galaxies are in the dark matter, in the Magellanic Halo; also right here passing through the Earth.
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