Friday 19 April 2013
Photo, above: Grozny, capital of Chechnya, in the middle of the war waged on Chechnya by Moscow. Tsar Nicholas I began the subjugation, murdered 15% of the population; Chchnyans cannot be subdued.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
From a listener, T Loghry: This website is producer of this video http://archive [dot] org/details/Abu
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 1, Block A: Michael Vlahos, Naval War College, in re: Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, ethnically Chechnyan, born in Kyrgyzstan. Chechnya: 1.5 million people, tribal, Muslim, in north Caucasus. Declared independence from the just-dead Soviet Union; after two Chechen wars with Moscow, which refused to allow liberty to Chechens, an enraged people turned to Islamism. Chechens have been under the Russian boot since Tsar Nicholas I in the early Nineteenth Century – that subjugation took thirty years, using scorched-earth policy; see: pyramid of skulls, Russians murdered 15% of the population. A mountainous region "beyond the cities." [i.e., not the urbanized, civilized people that the Russians fancied themselves to be]. As the Germans were fighting toward the oil fields, Stalin evacuated everyone, killed more than 10% of the populace. After the end of the Union, the Russian Federation forbad independence, invaded yet again; however, were twice defeated: storming Grozny with tanks, failed [Chechen + Grozny 1994 to YouTube; sung by Yuri Shevchuk. Of 120 tanks, 105 were destroyed by Chechen RPGS, and 2,000 to 4,000 young Russian conscripts were killed. The disgrace of the great Red Army. It’s this failure that keeps Russians at a white-hot hatred against Chechens.] Ranzan Kadirov runs death squads daily to keep people from having a revolution. This is the fertile ground from which the endless Chechen resistance grows.
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 1, Block B: Michael Vlahos, Naval War College, in re: Pres Putin and Pres Obama exchanged phone calls today; Putin expressed condolences, Obama thanked Russia for help. Islamophobia. Russia terrified that another battle against Chechnya has been lost; was promises to vanquish and crush Chechnya that got Putin elected the first time. If we use Russia as a model, we'll forever have the entire Muslim world as enemies. Using heavy artillery – and perhaps drones – is generally a disastrous policy. There's no one in Siberia, but many activated Chechens and other Muslim peoples where Russia's energy fields are. Retributive justice mode: wreaking "righteous" vengeance on the bad guys. Note that right now it's liberals who're demanding something rather like a benevolent police state – a domestic gendarmerie, our American-style storm troopers; militarization of the US. Massachusetts probably doesn’t grasp the long-term implications.
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 1, Block C: . Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD, & Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, in re: The Tsarnaev YouTube video: prophecy. "When you see the Black flags coming from the direction of Khorasan, join that army . . . They know that it’s coming, and that's why they demonize as a terrorist anyone – anyone – who supports Islam." Khorasan is the central place of the battle between Islam and the rest of the world. Horsemen with swords drawn riding to the rescue of the Muslim warriors – it's hypnotic; is in FB logos, is iconic imagery across the ummah. Four of the 9/11 pilots were originally recruited to fight in Chechnya. . . . Afghan mujahideen. Not surprising to find those in the Chechen jihadi sphere fighting us. The Tsarnaev brothers are now heroes across the Islamist world. They shut down Boston for days, garnered global news coverage. Huge victory. (As was Mumbai.)
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Less than 24 hours after the FBI posted photos of two suspects in Monday’s Boston Marathon bombings, the world has learned an astounding amount, with astounding speed, about the two men — one of whom is now dead after a murder, car chase and shootout that climaxed in Watertown, Mass., last night. The other suspect, his brother, remains at large. But for all the detail emerging today, a huge question remains unanswered: What motivated their alleged actions?
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Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 1, Block D: Thomas Goltz, author, Chechen Diary, in re: fifteen titular republics at the break-up of the USSR; all became officially in dependent in December 1991, all became UN members. In the old union were titular republics under which were autonomous districts began the urge to become independent. Nagorno-Karabakh; Abkhaz republic; south Ossetia, Adjara; the biggest problem was inside he Russian federation, itself: roughly ten autonomous republics, the strongest being Chechnya-Ossetia – wanted their own national currency, flag, UN membership. It was a nationalist movement. It started as a nationalist movement that received zero support from anyone in the world; through the horrors of war morphed into something quite different. "The drowning man will grab the snake slithering over the surface of the water" – that snake was al Qaeda, the only group to help Chechnya, and that was how it morphed into an Islamist movement. The Fourth Estate – normal Chechens seeking a normal life for themselves, managed to get somewhere else, such as Boston. Vladimir Putin was a known entity – KGB, Germany – but he above all capitalized on the Second War in Chechnya to get elected: in the ugliest terms, he owned that: "We will wipe the Chechens out in their outhouses." [Recall Barry Goldwater's, "We'll drop an atomic bomb on the men's room in the Kremlin."] On Kindle: Chechnya Diary: A War Correspondent's Story of Surviving the War in Chechnya by Thomas Goltz
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 2, Block A: Sebastian Gorka, FDD, in re: Tsarnaev connection to Caucasus; Dzhokhar born in Bishkek; al Qaeda in the entire region. Osh Valley. Putin is frightened of Boston events because he famously said that the greatest strategic mistake of the Twentieth Century was the loss of the Soviet Union. Any addtl loss would undermine his credibility and power. Also – loss of access to energy and oil routes. Finally, the leveraging he's mad of 9/11 and exploited his so-called commitment to fighting terrorism – al these are connected to finding the two individuals in Boston. Four of the 9/11 pilots were on their way to Chechnya until they wer diverted to Germany. Bin Laden didn’t create the organization al Qaeda - it was built on the old Palestinian Services Organization, where a Palestinian was bin Laden's boss. Once the Soviets withdrew from ten years in Afghanistan, bin Laden's boss was mysteriously assassinated and ObL inherited his power, re-deployed his 100K people: first to Bosnia to fight the Serbs and Croats, then almost immed to Chechnya to fight Russians. This is largely a war of narratives. Whether or not these boys were jihadis is not important; "This war will 70% be fought in the media" said the jihadist leaders, and the Tsarnaev brothers are already global heroes in the ummah.
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 2, Block B: . Reza Kahlili, author, A Time to Betray, on a voice modulator and under threat of death by the ayatollahs in Iran; in re: BOSTON BOMBERS FOLLOWERS OF IRAN'S AYATOLLAH. Source pointed to south Asia, to Iranian regime as recruiting in Bangladesh Sri Lanka, and other South Asian countries. From Sunni/Salafis, who had no idea that their recruiters were Shia. Tamerlan Tsarnaev was leaning toward Shia: praised th black flag and the struggle in Khorasan. Reza thinks these two young men were brainwashed, e=used as assets for Iran. Tamerlan's video posted under "Islam and the Emergence of Prophesy from Khorasan" – posted to Khamenei as the mythical figure who'd open the way to the Second Coming of the Prophet. Khamenei has one paralyzed hand.[?] The bombmaking was too well-planned to be off the Net. IRGC/al Quds: close collaboration w Hezbollah, have camps to recruit terrorists, bringing in new waves of jihadis. Black flag from Khorasan.
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 2, Block C: Eli Lake, senior national security correspondent, Newsweek/Daily Beast, in re: incl an Australian Salafi preacher who's helped migrate al Q's ideas into the English language.. Al Q now prefers to inspire low-tech, low-intensity attacks. Pressure-cooker bomb been used for a decade, popular in India Pakistan, Afghanistan, as a sort of IED. Australian called fro the beheading of Geert Wilders. Last night, the violence in Watertown: boys able to use heavy weapons and grenades; threw a pressure-cooker bomb at the police. They’re amateurs – the younger one kept his white baseball cap on in hiding; however, they had access to grenades and other heavy weapons – you gotta have connections to get those in this country. Conflicting info. Faisal Shazad built a bomb for his vehicle [Times Square], then did nothing else but make mistakes – a mixture of professionalism, amateurism and stupidity. If the elder brother did spend time with Chechen trainers, that'll be one thing; if it's self-generated, that's another. Evan Wolf said there's a lot of concern about IEDs coming into the US. Two IEDs at the marathon. Dzokhhar Tsarnaev: is he an enemy combatant? a US citizen? a jihadi? He's a US citizen charged in the US – apparently will have to be seen as a criminal. Director of George Washington University security: praises FBI for its way of using photos; difficult choices of how much to reveal to avoid tipping one's hand. The way they were released seemed to make the arrest inevitable. law enforcement & FBI look pretty good now.
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 2, Block D: Gene Countryman, KNSS in Wichita, in re: how events in Boston look to Kansas.
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 3, Block A: Stephen Cohen, NYU, in re: Chechnya and Moscow. Stephen Cohen, NYU, in re: Chechnya and Moscow. Putin was the first foreign leader to call Pres G W Bush to express condolences abt 9/11; called Pres Obama abt Boston. You'd think the US intell agencies, knowing who these two guys were, wd have called counterparts in Russia, the FSB, to ask for a report on older brother's activities in Russia. Did that only today – failure here, didn't connect dots, missed essential point. Even before the USSR ended, while in 1990, Caucasus people began fighting among themselves_ Chechnya, Daghestan, Ossetia, were unable unite. Administratively, Russia is a federation (at least theoretically). Chechnya has been more or less pacified by crushing military + funding. Fighting now is in Daghestan: attacks o any official, daily or weekly: ambush, assassination, or bombs. To Moscow, the North Caucasus are the front line in the fight against Islamism. Second, the clamor for independence is for a separation of Chechnya, creating a terrorist base inside Russia. Lavrov, Duma, Russian intell, all have tried to persuade the US that his is going on, shd partner w Russia to repress this kind of terrorism; but US policy is that the freedom movements are because of Putin's repression, not aspiration for independence I think this is quite wrong, That's one reason Putin called Obama today.
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 3, Block B: Stephen Cohen, NYU, in re: Chechnya and Moscow. Stephen Cohen, NYU, in re: Chechnya and Moscow. Beslan; war, attacks, murders. Anyone who's lived in a country waging war against another civilization, knows that there's blowback. I've visited Russia for 35 years. I recall being at a dacha when there was an attack at a rock festival – our hosts's children were there. Explosion at a Moscow metro station we use; also in airports we use; also at the theater. "More have died in Russia from 1999 till 2011 than dies in New York in 9/11." Suicide bombers called Black Widows, whose husbands were killed by Russians and the widows chose revenge. This really is a civilizational war; one tiny but extremely radical segment of Islamic civilization is aging war against what they consider the enemies of Islam: they ses Russia and the US as the same in this context. The Russian Federation includes abt 20 million Muslims; only a very small percentage are activist radicals. Russians say, US invasion of Iraq, Libya, etc., radicalize young people and then breed more radicalism.
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 3, Block C: Stephen Cohen, NYU, in re: Chechnya and Moscow. Stephen Cohen, NYU, in re: Chechnya and Moscow. The Tsarnaev YouTube video: prophecy. "When you see the Black flags coming from the direction of Khorasan, join that army . . . They know that it’s coming, and that's why they demonize as a terrorist anyone – anyone – who supports Islam." Khorasan is the central place of the battle between Islam and the rest of the world. Horsemen with swords drawn riding to the rescue of the Muslim warriors – it's hypnotic; is in FB logos, is iconic imagery across the ummah. Two young men in America, safe, family safe, lived in a nice apt in Cambridge – yet their website featured the black flags of Khorasan. Uncle said the boys were losers, couldn’t get traction in US life so struck out. This doesn’t seem to add up. Although ethnically they're Chechen, never lived there much. Why did the elder brother go to Russia last year? Younger brother, a citizen in 2012, was questioned by to FBI. Why? Father's politics when he was young under e Chechen wars. Family spoke Russian at home, not Chechen. FBI approached the younger brother at the request of Russians, so he must have been on Russian radar. Putin have repeatedly complained at West giving political asylum for what Russians consider to be obvious terrorists. Putin consistently opposed US military activity in the Middle East, everywhere but Afghanistan. Chechens boast of participation in al Nusrah Front (al Q in Syria). We have a narrative about the Arab Spring, which we call democracy, Putin says these n fact are destabilizing one if the most volatile regions in the world and bringing into power radical Islamism. JB: Instead of sending help into Syria, we need to review events in Libya, which is now exactly what Mssrs Putin and Lavrov warned against. In Libya, Russia did not use its veto vs US mil action in Libya because US (Clinton, Rice) swore that it would only send in planes for overflights, never for warfighting. US specifically betrayed Russia, which now cannot trust the White House. Do we have an enemy in the Chechen jihad that's far fiercer than anything we've faced in Pakistan?
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 3, Block D: Stephen Cohen, NYU, in re: Chechnya and Moscow. Stephen Cohen, NYU, in re: Chechnya and Moscow. Many tribes in the North Caucasus. The Moscow theater siege of 2010: differs from Pakistani resistance. Black Widows carry a picture of their loved one on their chest as they go to kill y committing suicide. The vulgarity depravity, murder of Beslan is not known to the US. SC: I resist . . . radical Islamic ideology hate US and Russia equally. Not ltd to Chechens. Bombs the same, indifference to human life, incl women & children, is the same, this is within conduct that otherwise I see as benign. The more the US is in a military war (vs terrorism, e.g.,) the more we need to worry about this kind of blowback, these people residing in the US. These two boys lived her for ten years, took American way of life, but somewhere became converted to Islamist ideology. Putin's call to Obama today does not repair the rift between US and Russia, but it was an overture. The question is, what will Obama do about this overture?
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 4, Block A: Larry Johnson, NoQuarter, in re: Boston
Friday 19 April 2013 / Hour 4, Block D: Jeff Bliss, The Bliss Index, in re: Boston. Jeff Bliss, The Bliss Index, in re: Boston. Also: Canyon Lake, a small gated city in Southern California, has just announced plans to withdraw from Calpers. The move comes in response to the pension fund’s recent suggestion that cities kick in as much as 50 percent more to the fund to keep benefits secure. Calpers requires a “termination fee” for any municipality looking to exit, but the city apparently thinks paying that fee now offers a better deal than a future of contribution hikes with Calpers. Calpers already has its hands full with rebellious cities. The fund has been embroiled in a long fight with San Bernardino, which is looking to delay payments as it goes through bankruptcy. But Canyon Lake is the only city so far that has decided to leave the fund entirely, and it’s not yet clear how Calpers will react to this move. It’s not that Calpers is afraid of the city’s departure on its own. Canyon Lake is an extremely small city, with only two full time employee. But if other, larger cities follow Canyon Lake’s lead, Calpers will have a serious problem on its hands.
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