The John Batchelor Show

Friday 24 April 2020

Air Date: 
April 25, 2020

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Hour One
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block A: Dan Henninger, WSJ editorial page deputy editor, and Wonder Land column; in re: reopening for business
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block B: Jeff Bliss, #Pacific Watch, in re CA opens.  Californiacs are fed up with lockdown and are voting with their sandy feet on the beaches.  On the 405 (major N-S freeway from Santa Clara to Orange County): right now it’s thin, but there’s more traffic than even recently. The state has requisitioned some rooms from different hotels—15,000 in all—to house the homeless.   A public figure was quoted as having said: “We’ll put ‘em in now, and it’ll be hard to move them out later. Some hotels will go bust, so we can buy hotels art bargain-basement rates, and then we can house the homeless.” Disneyland.  Stanford has returned the money from the bailout; how could it have thought of itself as a small business?  Universities with endowments in the billion.  USC took $20 mil ”Because our students need it” – and has an endowment of many billions.
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block C: Gene Marks, Guardian & Philadelphia Inquirer, in re: The Small Business Report.  What went wrong with the Payroll Protection Program? In Feb 2020, the fastest recovery after a recession and the most robust economy on Earth; now,  few weeks later—a broken economy.  The CARES Act + Disaster Recovery, have just been awarded by Congress another $310 bil. Marco Rubio crafted the Act; doors open on Monday: get your documentation ready immediately.  Most banks say: That 310 is already gone.    Shake Shack: owned by Danny Meyer, well-known; it and other publicly-held companies applied for loans—legally, but ethically not so good. They have access to capital elsewhere.  Shake Shack returned the funds. All of the chains that applied for the money knew it was not the right thing to do.  May 7 deadline for those companies to return funds that are not truly needed; no questions asked. In the next six or more months the govt will look up all the [venal] guys and we’ll read about them then.  Originally I thought that banks wouldn't want to process loans to small mom-and-pops; yes, but banks get large processing fees‑and prioritize their largest customers. These get the loans first.   Banking industry looks horrible.  The biggest losers of the entire experience.  Fraud: If you’re applying for a PPP or disaster loan: are you now or will you ever be a miscreant? If you get audited: It’s a felony.
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block D: Gene Marks, in re: The Small Business Report. Xerox makes all the right moves #in-the-time-of-the-virus.   Xerox let Steve Jobs walk out with a secret: the mouse.  Xerox is going into the business of making hand sanitizer, and will start mfrg ventilators for hospitals.   They’re innovating. In downturns, that’s what good businesses do.  The giants Google and Amazon.  Zoom: House Committee having a Zoom mtg and got hacked by an outsider who entered the meeting Google has banned Zoom [which, btw, is partly owned by the Chinese Communist Party, rendering it insecure.].  Amazon is opening up again to non-essential goods.
 
 
Hour Two
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block A:  Devin Nunes, CA-22, in re:   The energy markets #in-the-time-of-the-virus. Oil glut, crude is piling up everywhere with no storage space.  Dan the Oil Man. Chinese Communist Party is intending to buy American oil companies on the cheap.
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block B:  Devin Nunes, CA-22, in re:   The air packages from Congress.
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block C:  Chris Riegel, Scala.com, in re:   The future of work.
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block D: Ronald Lauder, president, World Jewish Congress, in re:    The Jewish diaspora and Israel during and after the virus.  I’m in contact with 100 communities worldwide. The Orthodox and secular groups used to be at odds; now have come together because of the virus. Also, Many diaspora Jews wanted to go to their homes in Israel but regs prevented that. Now that it’s somewhat subsided, people are much coming together again. Meanwhile, the rise of anti-Semitism. Reminiscent of the Middle Ages when Jews were blamed for bubonic plague. Whole communities were extinguished.  Currently, anti-Jewish people say that Jews caused the Wuhan plague in order to make money.  As Iran was blaming the US and Jews for the virus, it was begging for money from Israel.  I expect some tourism to return to Israel, depending on a steady decrease of virus in May and June.  One large fear is of sitting on a plane with crowds of other people.  Israel currently has an unemployment rate of 25% — catastrophe.  Re-employment in Israel and the US in a while, but not at previous levels. 
 
 
Three
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block A: Michael Vlahos, Johns Hopkins, in re:   The New American Civil War: the War Between the States in California.  Georgia has partially opened (by the governor), but the mayor of Atlanta says No.
 
In New York State, the stay-closed governor enjoys the support of surrounding states, but the economy is crushed; and without an economy, there’s no health care.  Blue states and red states look at each other with daggers,  Below the surface this crisis is no longer driven by the virus, but the virus, itself, has  become he organizing mechanism between two distinct and existentially-opposed philosophies of governance. The virus is dangerous, providing a mechanism to provide [conflict] between two ideologies.
 
Now, in the name of the virus, we're moving toward two different forms of governance.  Instead of a confederation of states . . . the Constitution reveals its elasticity.   . . .  The two sides fight this out not for an accommodation: there’s no middle ground in the country. You’re either closed or open.   People are confronted not by an existential choice, but will have to move with their feet.  Those who want an [open} society, and those who think the state should have more control. If municipalities refuse to follow their governor’s direction, that’s a problem.  The coming national election will bring this in to sharp relief. In the last election, 24 million ballots got lost.
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block B:  Michael Vlahos, in re:    The federal state. Thee history of American dissent is, I’ll take care of myself, thank you very much.  The federal govt may say only, “We want to revive the economy, but you have to decide.”  Breakdowns in comity between neighboring states.  In the Twentieth Century, the US established a false vision that we were  unified nation because we’d had a unified response to the crisis of war. This is not that: it speaks to the powers of the states, not of the federal government.   Almost impossible for this president to go down the path FDR. A new norm more like the Articles of Confederation, or the Constitution before 1860.
       Joe Biden predicts that Trump will delay the election.   The road behind us is calm compared to where we’re headed. A candidate declares to his party that the other candidate is not to be trusted.
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block C:  Henry Miller, Pacific Research Institute, in re:   How long until a vaccine?  I think the 12- to 18-mos estimate is just happy talk, grossly optimistic. Fauci: “A vaccine you start making and testing within a year is not deployable.”  The Salk vaccine was tested in over 600,000 children.  The first human papilloma vaccine.  The shingles vaccine.  If we get a vaccine, it's a long way off.  There were 320 comments on my article in the Wall Street Journal; they were all over the lot. They've been working on an AIDS vaccine for a long time and not succeeded.  . . .  If there's a reason to e optimistic, it's that there are so many approaches being taking  -- RNA; or DNA; or killing the virus with chemicals or radiation; or using a different virus (adenovirus) with an insert. Something like 70 different clinical trials under way.
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block D:  Henry Miller, in re:   Hurrying along the FDA approval of a viable vaccine. Possible ways of abridging the time lag. The usual progression is from the laboratory, to mice or rats test; then for very import products, into primates.  Only then do you do a phase 1 study – between ten and a hundred subjects.   Master protocol for dvpt: the minimum number of subjects the FDA would require, and statistical [analysis].  This is a way to eliminate possible silly mistakes.  Adaptive design: refers primarily to an individual sponsor. Intl cooperation is difficult–many studies are being done by Chinese companies, which are not transparent. “Unblind”: a controlled double-blind study means neither the subject nor the investigator knows if the subject is getting the real thing or the placebo, to eliminate bias. However, when a third party assists, sometimes it gets to have a sneak peek. If results are spectacular, it can start use of the [drug].  Rolling studies. Accelerated approvals. Gates plan: pick the seven best candidates, build large-scale bricks-and-mortar mfg facilities; as we get closer to choosing, will winnow it down to two.  Allow reciprocity between the FDA and [collegial] countries‑Australia, New Zealand, Scandinavia, et al.
 
 
Hour Four
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block A: Bob Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com, in re:    What is a spaceflight broker?
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block B: Bob Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com in re:   Geological map of the Moon.
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block C: Francis Rose, WJLA, in re:    The DOD Army and the virus.
 
Friday  24 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block D:  Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ, in re:   AMLO of Mexico sees the virus crisis as an opportunity for control.