The John Batchelor Show

Monday 17 March 2014

Air Date: 
March 17, 2014

Photo, above:  Queen Catherine the Great

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR – the Great Voice of the Great Lakes

Hour One

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 1, Block A: Aaron Task, Yahoo Finance, in re:  Dublin lit up on sat photos; "lots of Irishmen lit up, too." Pres Obama today forbad Russian rich people from visiting the US. Pres Putin will soon issue his own sanctions list, probably  incl Dick Durban, Sen McCain, and "high Obama Administration officials."  Huge market rally today–celebratory.  No rational explanation therefor.  Russians could "turn the US into a heap of ashes"?  Chairman Janet Yellin: any change of course?  Nope, no surprise expected – "continuity with Chairman Bernanke's policies" so will diminish tapering by $10 billion per month.    Ordinary Michiganders not very enthusiastic about upcoming elections. SouthBy (SxSW): Austin is the new San Francisco.  Began as a music festival, not it's almost all tech, called interactive.  Averaging 110 people arriving in Austin daily to work in high-tech field. Attracting more star-ups and more business and so ore employees.  It's a boom there right now. 

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 1, Block B:  Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, and Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD, in re:  Afghanistan: Afghan national forces, mil and police – are not ready to take over keeping the peace, yet Karzai says "go home!"   No matter what the US commits to, it won't be enough, so he just says get out.  Needs to be sure that he's not seen as the US's lackey, although the Taliban already asserts he is.   TGM: Let's say he gets what he asks for; then what?   Bill:   Nothing wll satisfy this relationship.  TJ: Al Rahabi was denied transfer to his native Yemen; was one of the first detainees shipped here in 2002.  He was to have been one of the first highjackers, out of SE Asia; cancelled by Osama bin Laden for operational reasons.  A one-page summary of review boards's denial: threat cannot be mitigated by his transfer to Yemen (no surprise).  Was "core al Qaeda" before he was caught, was trained by Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.   Syria deteriorates; whole region follows it into a crater. 

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 1, Block C: Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, and Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD, in re: Guantanamo nonrelease; Afgh; now to Syria, where al Nusrah is naming training camps after Abu Kadiya (a top al Q in Iraq leader, directed from Syria);  al Q leaders are turning into the Founding Fathers of the ummah.  Al Qaeda is becoming sentimental: it has a history, martyrs, camps namesd after fallen leaders, stories told to young people.   Abduallah Azzam has always been lionized; now the next generation is revering the previous.  Inspire magazine (publ by al Q in Arabian Peninsula) in English, recruits lone wolves and other sympathisers; to learn to build a bomb and go explode it. ("How to build a mass-murder weapon in our mom's kitchen.") Currently teaching car bombs.  Won't blow  up a large institution, but can kill a lot of people.   This is a car-sized version of the backpack bombs of the Tsarnaev Boston bombers.  Effort to tie up Western intell svcs.  All they need is one or two to be successful. These are distractions from their strategic objective: taking over nation-states, which is where they’re putting most of their efforts.  To date, the most damage has been done by professionally-trained terrorists; Inspire is just an effort to create chaos.  Crimea: Novorossiya.  Today, is the US tangling with Russia over Europe.  Clear that US allies watch how the US handles power - it backs down, shows a lack of will, which embolden US enemies.  They'd rather see a fragmented US and Russia rather than their working together to fight the enemy. 

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 1, Block D:  Lara M Brown, George Washington University, and Francis Rose, Federal News Radio, in re: ACA/Obamacare. Ina wave of good feeling, the Obama Adm is saying that we’ve gone from 4.2 million to 5 million – hooray.    "Blarney."  Let’s be honest: original goal was 7 mill, reduced to 6; now 5 represent a threshold, getting into the right ball park. People waiting till the last minute both for financial reasons, and to see what'll be available when and for how much.  A substantial number of people don’t have health insurance because they don’t want it; BankRate.com says that a third of Americans won’t buy insurance – so will have to pay a fine, and won’t get a dime of subsidy.  ''And they vote Democratic? Not likely." . . .   One of the things the president is doing wrong is that he's been here too long. Only Reagan and Clinton saw upward spikes in the second term.  Sebelius says ACA prices will be higher next year. Sen Mark Pryor in Arkansas – a sixth-generation public servant and hitherto beloved, but he voted for the ACA and is struggling mightily against a Johnny-come-lately Congressman running against him.  Only thing anyone can see militating against him is his Obamacare vote. 

Hour Two

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 2, Block A:  David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Sr Congressional correspondent, and John Fund, National Review Online, in re: Florida 13.  Special elections occur when a seat comes empty between election cycles. No primary; you just show up and vote.  In Florida, Alex Sink was recruited to win (a Dem, esteemed public servant),  GOP used social media and computers – they figured it out to make tactical adjustment and strategic decisions.  If you have the money and an adequate candidate, then these bells and whistles can buy you the extra point. The RNC's new tools did make a difference.  Sink said "we can fix Obamacare"; Jolly said only, "repeal it."  Obamacare sank Sink.  Nationally: sense of economic malaise. 

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 2, Block B: David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Sr Congressional correspondent, and John Fund, National Review Online, in re: Pres Obama engaging in futile, petulant moves rather than real foreign policy.  Hasan Rouhani was in Moscow three days ago beseeching Putin for trade Russia-Iran. Whole scenario contributes to a perception of American leadership that's not what most Americans want.  Recall Syria last summer when US didn't want to get involved in Syria; neither did the president – and very low poll numbers. Weariness with his president.  The Michigan Committee against War and Injustice: demo vs US involvement in Ukraine and Venezuela. We’re involved??  The interest seems to be from the Comintern. Now: Cold War part 75.  Starkly confrontational Obama response to Russia. 

Photo below: the Crimean Tatar flag.

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 2, Block C: Matthew Kaminski, WSJ, in re: On the Eve of Crimea's Vote, the Putin Grip Tightens Putin signs decree accepting Crimea into Russia. Putin has created facts on the ground that have torn Crimea from Ukraine.   Russian media now routinely calling Ukraine "NovoRossiya."  Crimea is the only majority-Russian region in Ukraine.  Powerful current pro-Russian sentiment  in Crimea has been skillfully engineered by Moscow.  Yalta is significant – historical; much more Sovietskii feeling than in Eastern Ukraine.  Russian intell stirred up stuff in Kharkiv and Donetsk; brought in Russian citizens. 

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 2, Block D:  Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: China wants to support Russia in all possible ways, but is very tetchy about separatist  esp in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan. The Shanghai Cooperation Agreement may soon include Iran.  China has supprted Iran in diplomacy and commercially (esp oil and gas).  Ruthess diplomacy: "Iran will get the bomb anyway so China might as well support it . . ."  China is gravely unhappy with Malaysia; very dark rumors circulating in Washington about Chinese involvement in the search for the plane and multilateral efforts to figure out what’s going on.  /  Beijing allowed a Chinese firm to default; Premier Li said there'd be more: a private steel co + a real estate dvpr near Shanghai.  A lot of firms on the edge of default bow kept alive by state actions. Expect a wave of defaults.  Problem is that the state has created such massive debt that it can’t get out.  Ren min bi liberalized – widened trading band.  Used to be allowed to move a half-per cent per day, now at 1.5 %   Expect manufacturers to have problems.  Game they’re playing and they want to impress the rest of the world with liberalization of currency; are just hanging on. Exporters starting to hurt – down 1.6% in January. Could Hong Kong vote to secede, or Taiwan to be forced to join Mainland? – Beijing can never allow a vote!

 China's Crimea dilemma  Crimea's referendum on splitting from Ukraine places China, Russia's usual ally, in a tight spot, the BBC's Celia Hatton says.

China urges restraint in Ukraine, ducks comment on Crimea vote . . .   A top Chinese diplomat repeated Beijing's call for calm and restraint in Ukraine on Monday, but avoided commenting on a . . .

China Cautiously Supports Crimea's Secession - VOA  China repeated calls for restraint in Ukraine on Monday, a day after a controversial referendum in Crimea overwhelmingly . . .

Hour Three

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: "Mr Abbas is no closer to uttering the words that are a litmus test: We recognize Israel." – NY Times.  "In 1993 we recognized the state of Israel" – unfortunately not true; Washington at the time took the official position that that emphatically was inaccurate.  242.  Arafat did not recognize Israel but gave a summary of 141.  Obama looking for "signs of flexibility" – meaning?  Unh, is he limber at age 79?   Netanyahu arrived two weeks ago, was met by the [vulgar] interview in the New Yorker; Abbas arrives and naught is demanded of him.   We’re six weeks from the 29 April deadline set; now Kerry says oh, it’s just for a framework. Abbas keeps demanding: East Jerusalem return to '67 borders, et al.  Anent 1967 borders:  Israel w attacked by combined Arab armies, Israel defended itself, took Sinai then returned it; took West Bank from Jordan, which Jordan relinquished.  Israel is prepared to return territory in exchange for a peace agreement, will keep some settlement lands and swap land so Palestinian are wholly recompensed Palestinians in 1948 were urged by Arab stets to leave – and have  been kept in horrid camps in Arab countries ever since.  Meanwhile, Jews were kicked out of Arab nations, were welcomed by the new state even though it was effectively broke.  Abbas has continued incitement (teaching kindergartners to kill Jews, and the like); pays tribute to murderers and terrorists – pays a large pensin toall in jail who’ve killed Israelis and named building for them.  Continues the wild kleptocracy that Abu Ammar established.   Israelis released here tranches of terrorists; Abbas has refused to keep his commitments, demands that Bargouti be released – he's very far from being an advocate of peace. 

 Obama Meets with Palestinian Leader as Talks Lag  President Obama met with President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, amid signs that the peace process has hit a roadblock.

Obama to Abbas: Palestinians must take risks for peace

In Washington, PA president discusses ongoing talks, says prisoner release will prove Netanyahu’s committment

Jerusalem insistently mum on Crimea referendum

Bucking the trend of worldwide condemnation, no Israeli official wants to comment and potentially harm ties with Russia

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 3, Block B: :  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:  82 Senators wrote an outline of what's needed in dealing with Iran: put down markers of what the final deal with Iran must be:  If talks fail, rapid new sanctions; Parchin, Fordow and Arak must be closed; no inherent right to enrich;  CIA had to suspend the head of its Iran division (chaos at CI).  Bipartisan and veto-proof majority.  Zarif cancelled a dinner with ____, who spoke well of women. Rouhani was in Moscow three days ago.  Cockiness and arrogance.  Russians looking strong in Eastern Med and elsewhere; Central Asian countries nervous. Assad captured a critical village in Lebanon.  Chem weapons disposal stalled (stopped). 

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 3, Block C: Jillian Kay Melchior, NRO, in re: The electrical workers' union runs a PAC-- and in what looks a lot like a self-pay scheme, significant money from that PAC ends up at a rough dive bar owned by the union's bosses.  That and other transactions show the union leadership hauling in big money even as the union workers endured a tough recession and recovery. [more]

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 3, Block D: Gregory Copley, author, UnCivilization, in re:  Defying Sanctions, Putin Declares Crimea Independent  Brushing aside newly imposed sanctions from the West, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia decreed Crimea was independent from Ukraine, a possible precursor to annexation.

Hour Four

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 4, Block A: Christian Whiton, author, Smart Power, in re: Ex-Bush admin official: Internet giveaway weakens cybersecurity, opens door to Web taxThe U.S. government’s plan to give away authority over the Internet’s core architecture to the “global Internet community” could endanger the security of both the Internet and the U.S. — and open the door to a global tax on Web use.

“U.S. management of the internet has been exemplary and there is no reason to give this away — especially in return for nothing,” former Bush administration State Department senior advisor Christian Whiton told The Daily Caller. “This is the Obama equivalent of Carter’s decision to give away the Panama Canal — only with possibly much worse consequences.”  The U.S. Commerce Department announced late Friday it would relinquish control of The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) — the organization charged with managing domain names, assigning Internet protocol addresses and other crucial Web functions — after its current contract expires next year.

In response to months of mounting criticism from the global community over sweeping National Security Surveillance programs leaked by former agency contractor Edward Snowden, the administration surrendered to allegations it had too much influence over the Web through ICANN, which designates the roadmap from web-connected devices to websites and servers across the globe.

“While the Obama administration says it is merely removing federal oversight of a non-profit, we should assume ICANN would end up as part of the United Nations,” Whiton said. “If the U.N. gains control what amounts to the directory and traffic signals of the Internet, it can impose whatever taxes it likes.  It likely would start with a tax on registering domains and expand from there.”

ICANN’s Lebanese-born CEO Fadi Chehadé had already recently discussed setting up an office in Geneva — the location of the largest U.N. presence outside New York. If folded into the U.N.’s International Telecommunication Union, the organization would have access to a significant revenue stream outside of member contributions for the first time. “What little control there is over the U.N. would be gone,” Whiton said. The greater danger posed by the giveaway lies with the security of the Internet itself. While the U.S. has never used ICANN in a war or crisis situation, the potential exists for . . .  [more]

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 4, Block B: Reza Kahlili, author, A Time to Betray, in re: Leading Iranian ayatollah: Islamic messiah ‘will behead Western leaders’

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 4, Block C: Ernie Scheydner, Reuters, in re:  Chevron warns California carbon rules will make gasoline too costly. 

Pending California carbon regulations could make it too expensive to operate refineries in the most populous U.S. state, drastically increasing gasoline prices and costing thousands of jobs, a senior Chevron Corp CVX.N executive said. The No. 2 U.S. oil company, which runs California's two largest refineries, believes a bill first passed in 2006 and being introduced in phases, would hurt the state's economy and have little impact on climate change, Michael Wirth, who oversees Chevron's refining and chemical businesses, said in an interview on Tuesday.

Chevron is especially opposed to a part of the bill, known as AB 32, that starting next year would require all California distributors of transportation fuels to purchase carbon permits to cover emissions from automobiles, a cost the Boston Consulting Group, in a study on behalf of the oil industry, estimates could exceed $3.7 billion. "It's a cost, frankly, that Chevron can't absorb," Wirth said at the company's annual investor day. "No matter how big and successful we are, we can't absorb that cost. We'd have to pass that onto consumers."

Wirth said the rules could sharply push up gasoline price in California, which already has the most expensive gasoline in the United States. Some environmentalists say higher prices would force people to use alternative fuels. California has at times introduced rules tougher than those of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, while the Sierra Club and other environmental groups have publicly stated a goal to eliminate all refineries in the San Francisco area.

State legislators approved AB 32 with the goal of reducing California's greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. The bill gave the California Air Resources Board (CARB) authority to craft regulations that would help meet that goal.

CARB decided a cap-and-trade system would best accomplish the greenhouse gas reduction goal. The first phase, for power plants and refineries, was put into place last year. The vast majority of carbon permits thus far have been given out freely.

Next year, the second phase will target transportation fuels, which worries Chevron. Under current plans, there will be no free carbon permits for transportation fuels.

Carbon permits cost about $12 per tonne today in California, which if the regulation was in effect on transportation fuels today would translate to a roughly 12 cents per gallon increase.

Boston Consulting Group estimated the price of California gasoline could jump 49 cents to $1.83 per gallon by 2020 under the new regulations. Other estimates show a lower impact.

Global demand for oil is far more likely to cause a sudden rise in California gasoline prices in the coming years than an unlikely run up in carbon prices, according to analysts. But unlike world markets, carbon is a cost that California voters could take steps to ease or remove.

It is far from probable, however, that Chevron could pull out of the California refining market entirely, said Wayne Miller, associate director of the University of California-Riverside's College of Engineering Center for Environmental Research and Technology.

"They're such a large producer of fuel in California that if they closed, it would be beyond a crisis," said Miller, who . . .

Monday  17 March  2014  / Hour 4, Block D:  Ken Croswell, Scientific American, in re: Most of the universe is rushing away from us. It's not that we're particularly repellent; it's just that the universe is expanding, pushing most other galaxies away. Light from distant galaxies travels toward us through this expanding space, which stretches their light to longer, or redder, wavelengths. As a result, the spectra of most galaxies exhibit redshifts. Now astronomers have accidentally discovered the greatest blueshift ever seen, in a star cluster that a giant black hole may have catapulted our way. [more]

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