The John Batchelor Show

Monday 25 July 2016

Air Date: 
July 25, 2016

Photo, left: 
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, The Great Voice of the Great Lakes
 
Hour One
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Rita Cosby, WABC chief political reporter, in re:  In Philadelphia, Roosevelt Park demonstrations: thousands of peaceful, vocal demonstrators outraged about malfeasance vs Bernie Sanders; some disappointed with Sanders for supporting Clinton. Many say they’ll vote for Jill Stein, or Trump– or stay home rather than vote for Clinton.   May of the people were highly  articulate and galvanized in the last 48 hours, esp in response to wikileaks’s showing that the DNC was in collusion with Clinton against Sanders
Tom Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor & FDD, in re: al Qaeda’s defense minister is, in effect, living in Iran, coordinating operations from there.  Iran’s deals w al Q go back to the early 1990s.  Simple-minded analyses miss this. Points of confluence:  both are hostile to the West and Iran wants to keep al Q from recruiting or running ops within Iran.  A deal of convenience for each side.  Study the 9/11 Commission report: Iran and al Q have had dealings for decades. US Treasury designates them as terrorist but does little to disrupt their work; important first to inform the public that these bad actors are still cutting deals, esp with the Obama Administration’s pretending that they don’t work together.    The number-one safe place against drones for al Qaeda is Iran. 
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Tom Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor & FDD, in re:  Tom has found a preparatory pattern: Islamic State has an “unofficial” arm named Amaq – it’s prolific and clearly  official; from West Africa to South Asia, Amaq issues bulletins on what IS claims to have done. Their attack claims in the West go through Amaq: San Bernardino, Europe, et al. They always say the attackers are “lone wolves” — no longer credible.  He had at least one digital tie to IS, as he managed to get his self-recorded vid into Amaq. His speech isn't a casual presentation–he’d processed the whole mythology and repeated the talking points. Larossi Aballah murdered a police chief in front to his son and livestreamed it via Amaq. The apparent suicide attack in Germany: pix and vid already on Amaq.  All the killers pledge allegiance to al Baghdadi. 
Libya:  last week, France had to admit its special forces are operating inside Libya; this became major news in Libya. Helo was downed on 17 July – crashed? was it shot down? – French say ‘twas an accident  whereas jihadis say it was shot down in Benghazi by manpads(?).  The killers have the bodies, having posted photos of some of the dead.  Russian helo?  Looks like it.
Islamic State claims suicide bombings at Kabul protest   According to the Amaq News Agency, two "fighters of the Islamic State" executed the attack on the Hazara protesters in Afghanistan's capital.   Presence of French special forces in Libya sets off controversy   A helicopter carrying three French soldiers crashed near Benghazi, Libya on July 17, killing the Frenchmen and their Libyan counterparts on board. A new jihadist front called the Benghazi Defense Brigades quickly claimed credit, saying its fighters downed the helo with a shoulder-fired missile. French President Hollande said it was an "accident."
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block C:  Gordon G. Chang, Daily Beast & Forbes.com, in re: Gordon G. Chang, Daily Beast & Forbes.com, in re: China claims a “diplomatic victory at the current ASEAN 3 +  mtg in Chengdu;  they did say ASEAN would not inhabit uninhabited features in the South China Sea.  Some of ASEAN  are in China’s pocket; the others are seafaring nations that need to protect themselves. It's a split organization.  It’ll be the US Navy to protect ASEAN nations.  “Unless we actually buy Cambodia, this will continue to happen.”  China is probing for weakness; has united the rest of the region against it by its response the Hague ruling, Until the US shows force, this is an uncomfortable confrontation.
China's top two leaders,  Pres Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, are going at it, and they can't stop their disagreements from leaking out.  One consequence: the economy is taking a hit because the infighting has slowed policymaking.   Seventy-plus-year-old official jailed. War between Xi and Li, with Xi trying to get rid of the elders who aren't beholden to him.   In July we’ve seen new symptoms of the fight: instrux came down on State enterprises – Xi said they shd be bigger & under Party control; Li says smaller and more free-market.  The whole structure is thus paralyzed.  Li is the weaker of the two leaders but might in fact unseat Xi.  Susan Rice is in China to try to managed conflict and keep the rest of the relations on track.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2016/07/24/chinas-xi-li-grudge-m...
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Sean Wilentz
 
Hour Two
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:   David M Drucker, Senior Congressional correspondent, Washington Examiner, and John Fund, NRO, in re: David and John are both in Philadelphia at the Democratic convention n.  Bernie Sanders supporters no loner support Sanders but td support the idea.  Are shocked that the DNC wanted Hillary Clinton t be the Democratic nominee. Disappointment, passion, alienation. Related to the e hack showing that the Democratic Natl Committee was committed to Hillary.  Upset voters across the board are not much interested in listening to leaders, prefer leaders to listen to them.  IS there a future trajectory or is this a 1960s last ditch? Depends on who wins – if she loses. They'll try to take over the Dem Party.  The problem they have is not issues but character: she’s been branded as extremely careless with natl security and a liar. Millennials see her as old and corrupt and unrepresentative. I hear grudging respect for Cruz tonight: at least he said what was on his mind. Most of those I spoke with will not vote for Trump or Hillary. 
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: David M Drucker, Senior Congressional correspondent, Washington Examiner, and John Fund, NRO, in re: Wikileaks, FSB, GRU, Putin, KGB . . .  Vladimir Putin wants Trump to be president?  Spearphising to gain access to RNC and DNC documents, eke White House, State, all manner of US govt docs,
 
Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear are in Moscow & St Petersburg time zones, and take Russian holidays.  Said to have taken docs and given them to wikileaks to release. Also, Gucifer says it’s all only bad actors who live in Romania – which no one believes.    David Drucker interviewed Michael McFaul, who said that Putin looks fondly on nationalist leaders in other countries, incl Trump. Any campaign that says the problem is the work of a foreign power really does want to change the subject. Suppose Comey is right in saying that a foreign power penetrated Hillary’s server, and all 30K emails reappear before the election.  . . .  Dems seem to have email problems.  Reince Priebus avers that the GOP has made Herculean efforts to protect digitized data and the Democrats have not.  First time in two years I’ve seen Clinton’s group be defensive.    You don't want to start your convention firing your chairman and dealing with booing. Dems see Trump as Mephistopheles.  . . .  My guess is that Putin isn’t much impressd by either Hillary or Trump.
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:   Arab Summit:  First time Mauritania was invited to host the Arab Summit. Mauritanian president swears to get rid of terrorism.  Syria, Iraq  and Libya were foci.  “Foreign intervention in the region” was said to generate terrorism and radicalization of  youth.  Saudi king didn’t attend, neither el Sisi of Egypt. With absence of heavyweights, mtg was cut from two to one day.  El Sisi’s message: “Arab strategy of struggle against terrorism:  Terrorism deflects from Islam’s msg of peace,” and he blamed the Arab world for [indolence?].  This year, Morocco relinquished its right to host the summit.   Incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan.  Bashir from Sudan attended the summit.  Palestinian-Israeli matters; “Shd pursue the Saudi and Egyptian initiatives” – no condemnations or calls to destroy Israel [which in itself constitutes a huge shift].  What unites the Arabs?  ISIS –even Iran called for a united stand against IS.   
Iran destroyed 10,000 private satellite dishes on Sunday in a moral ceremony: “the TV transmissions deviate from morality and culture” – a huge drive against any means of communication.  Supposedly a million people  voluntarily handed over their sat dishes.  An Iranian general says that the country’s nuclear program is “the way for us to deter US military strikes.”  Describes US as Iran’s main enemy.  Conducted their fourth ballistic missile test, using North Korean technology, and exploded just outside of Isfahan, had 2,500-mi range – clearly a violation fo Res 2231.   Iran says it’ll expand its program.  Rouhani is facing scandals of inflated salaries to friend with special jobs; Cap of  $2350/mo on salaries but buddies are making much more, Also, minorities  in country – Arabs, Kurds, others , are now showing opposition, fear that they'll take out oil drilling.
•       Ten Years after Last Lebanon War, Israel Warns Next One Will Be Far Worse - 
Ten years after Israel and Hizbullah fought a bloody but inconclusive 34-day war that left more than 1,000 soldiers and civilians dead in July and August of 2006, the Lebanese Shiite militant group has been transformed. 
  Hizbullah is now a regional military power, a cross-border strike force, with thousands of soldiers hardened by four years of fighting on Syrian battlefields on behalf of President Bashar al-Assad. There are 7,000 Hizbullah fighters in Syria, Israeli commanders say. "In 2006, Hizbullah fought a guerrilla war. Today, Hizbullah is like a conventional army," said Elias Hanna, a retired Lebanese army general who teaches at the American University of Beirut. 
  In briefings with reporters in Tel Aviv, Israeli military intelligence officers in the past year have begun to show aerial photographs of villages in Hizbullah's southern stronghold. A photograph of the town Muhaybib is covered with red squares marking the placement of what the Israelis say are command posts, anti-tank positions, tunnels and launch pads. Israel says there are 90 buildings in the village of 1,100 people and that 35 buildings are being used by Hizbullah.
•       Turkey's Purge: More than 2,000 Charities and Schools Closed 
President Tayyip Erdogan tightened his grip on Turkey on Saturday, ordering the closure of thousands of private schools, charities and other institutions in his first decree since imposing a state of emergency after the failed military coup. 
  Turkish authorities also detained a nephew of Fethullah Gulen, the U.S.-based Muslim cleric accused by Ankara of orchestrating the July 15 coup attempt.
•       "Law Is Suspended": Turkish Lawyers Report Abuse of Coup Detainees - Thousands of people taken into custody since Turkey's attempted coup are being held in sports facilities and stables, where some have been beaten and mistreated, according to lawyers familiar with the cases. Lawyers from the Ankara Bar Association's human rights commission report clients complained about a lack of food and that their hands have been bound for days. The mistreatment is "systematic." The Turkish government strongly denies the allegations.
 
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Recall 3 June intl summit in Paris; nice food for the attendees but not much result.  Hollande is concerned over fragile situation in Middle East [and not at home]; “France will spare no effort to mobilize the intl community.”  Saudis. Argentina:  demands Ali Akhbar Velayti surrender himself as the author of he AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires (killed 85). Hezbollah working t he will of Teheran. He’s en route to Singapore for a meeting; he could have been held by Interpol but Singapore refused.   A Saudi delegation visited Israel, met ore Gold in Israeli foreign n ministry to promote the Saudi peace plan and negotiations. Met with head of forces in West Bank, and invited Knesset oppo members to visit Saudi Arabia  Each year 50K Israelis visit Morocco; also water reclamation, medical – so many areas where Israel can be useful, as Arab states can be to Israel.  Sisi’s warming may have given the others courage to move ahead. 
Israeli warplanes carried out airstrikes against an area in Syria in response to mortar fire, an Israeli military statement said July 25, AP reported. According to the statement, the mortar fire was likely errant and hit an area in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights. That statement blamed the Syrian government for the mortar fire, which reportedly did not result in any casualties. Though it has been careful to avoid entanglement in the civil war raging in neighboring Syria, Israel has previously carried out airstrikes there, including against Hezbollah targets.
 
 
Hour Three
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:   Patrick Tucker DefenseOne, in re: Vladimir Putin weaponized Wikileaks to influence the 2016 election. APT29, Cozy Bear.  Gucifer 2.0: “No, no Russians, it’s just little me.  I’m for real. Ignore the Russians.”  [Ha-ha.]  Although he claimed to be from Romania, he doesn’t much know any Romanian.  Uses the same operating system as that use by Russian intelligence.  Is wikileaks Russian intell?  No – are useful  idiots.  See blog: “Weaponized wikileaks.”
Tucker spoke with Tom Kellermann, the CEO of Strategic Cyber Ventures who said:  “…Here’s the timeline: On June 14, cybersecurity company CrowdStrike, under contract with the DNC, announced in a blog post that two separate Russian intelligence groups had gained access to the DNC network. One group, FANCY BEAR or APT 28, gained access in April. The other, COZY BEAR (also called Cozy Duke and APT 29), first breached the network in the summer of 2015.
Cybersecurity company FireEye first discovered APT 29 in 2014 and was quick to point out a clear Kremlin connection. “We suspect the Russian government sponsors the group because of the organizations it targets and the data it steals. Additionally, APT 29 appeared to cease operations on Russian holidays, and their work hours seem to align with the UTC +3 time zone, which contains cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg,” they wrote in their report on the group. Other U.S. officials have said that the group looks like it has sponsorship from the Russian government due in large part to the level of sophistication behind the group’s attacks….”
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/07/how-putin-weaponized-wikileaks-influence-election-american-president/130163/?oref=d-river
See: Tales of the New Cold War: Fancy Bear and Cozy Bear Weaponize Wikileaks. DefTechPat, Defense One. @HArrySiegel, NYDN. @MaryKissel, WSJ. @JohnTamny, Forbes.
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:   Harry Siegel, NeW York Daily News, in re: Trump's been saying the same stuff about American chaos and decline for four decades. Some thoughts on why the stopped clock's moment is now.  http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/harry-siegel-shining-light-donald-darkness-article-1.2722151
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; in re: Opinion Journal: Trump’s NATO Diss   American Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow John Bolton on presidential candidate’s comments on the alliance and the dangers of appeasing Vladimir Putin.
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  John Tamny, Forbes, in re: Donald Trump gave a very familiar speech on Thursday; one that we've seen Democrats give at conventions over the years.  Lots of negativity, promises that government will fix much of what ails us, including wage inequality, and abundant class warfare talk.  Most of all it was embarrassing.  It shrank us as he talked about going after countries that "cheat" on trade.  The U.S is supposed to be led by adults extolling the virtues of exchange.  This is not the direction the Republicans want to go.  Forbes.com
We've Seen Trump's Speech Before, at Democratic Conventions   During Ivanka Trump's introduction of her father on Thursday night, the possible future first daughter said she's never really identified with either Republicans or Democrats.  Her admission spoke volumes, and in many ways told the tale of her speech, and her father's.  While her delivery was very nice, her line about how her dad would achieve income equality for women and pregnant women plainly being underpaid by discriminatory corporations run by heartless men was something that would normally draw cheers at Democratic gatherings.  It surely has.  We've heard the Trumps' speeches before, only at Democratic conventions.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2016/07/24/forget-melania-its-dona...
 
 
Hour Four
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  The Great Departure: Mass Migration from Eastern Europe and the Making of the Free World by Tara Zahra (1 of 4).
“In this riveting book, Tara Zahra takes the story of immigration that Americans know so well and weaves it into a larger story of emigration that we have long neglected. Full of hope and promise, of desperation and tragedy, it is perhaps the most important story of the twentieth century. With all the drama of a novel and all the nuance of history writing at its best, The Great Departure is a must-read. (Alison Johnson, Harvard University) In this spare, deeply researched, and unfailingly analytical book, Tara Zahra frees the great migration of Eastern Europeans to the West from romantic myth and dissects all its human and moral complexities. (Robert D. Kaplan, of In Europe’s Shadow: A Journey Through Two Cold Wars in Romania and Beyond) With a combination of deft historical analysis, sparkling prose, and careful attention to individual stories, both poignant and instructive, Tara Zahra systematically deconstructs the myths surrounding emigration, escape, and deportation from Eastern Europe since the late nineteenth century. The Great Departure is brimming with important and suggestive lessons from the past for thinking about the worldwide dynamics of emigrants and refugees in our own day. (Norman M. Naimark, Stanford University) Meticulously researched, The Great Departure shows mass emigration from all sides, including individual stories of poverty and maltreatment--but also positive changes emigration brought to women…. This book is equally relevant for Americans, showing why and how many of their ancestors left their countries, and for Europeans, confronted with an unprecedented wave of immigrants today. (Slavenka Drakulic, author of A Guided Tour through the Museum of Communism) About the Author Tara Zahra is a professor of Eastern European history at the University of Chicago and the author of two award-winning books, Kidnapped Souls and The Lost Children.”
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  The Great Departure: Mass Migration from Eastern Europe and the Making of the Free World by Tara Zahra (2 of 4).
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: The Great Departure: Mass Migration from Eastern Europe and the Making of the Free World by Tara Zahra (3 of 4).
Monday 25 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: The Great Departure: Mass Migration from Eastern Europe and the Making of the Free World by Tara Zahra (4 of 4). 
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