Monday 28 October 2019
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, the Great Voice of the Great Lakes
Monday 29 October 2019/ Hour 1, Block A: Tom Joscelyn, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies; & Senior Editor for FDD's Long War Journal; and Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD; in re: Baghdadi: his death and his replacement. New ISIS locations, esp Africa. The bin Laden raid and its treatment.
Monday 29 October 2019/ Hour 1, Block B: Tom Joscelyn, Long War Journal and FDD; and Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD; in re: Al Baghdadi in Idlib province: He demanded the allegiance of all Muslims and all jihadi groups – but Idlib is controlled by the breakoff group from ISIS, now the al Nusra Front. May of hem hated Baghdadi, and the sentiment was reciprocated. Al Baghdadi in Idlib, and especially near the Turkish border, was quite a surprise for observers. . . . Turkish perfidy.
Monday 29 October 2019/ Hour 1, Block C: Gordon Chang, Daily Beast, in re: “How did you go broke?” “At first gradually, then suddenly.” Let’s apply that to Hong Kong: its banks. “This is the start of the end of an era of superprofitability of Hong Kong.”—Dubai analyst. Nearby competitors are glad to se HK blow up. More and more Chinese money is coming out of Mainland, which has kept HK real estate high. The Plenum is the mtg of the Central Committee of the CCP. This time was delayed (unusually); may have occurred because of political turmoil. Normally, it’d be devoted to economic matters, but this one is on politics. Is Xi weaker or stronger now? Hard to be sure. Look for discordant voices in established state media — Hsinhua, et al. [Xinhua]. In 2018, Chinese M2 was over 200% of GDP, while US was 69% of GDP. A lot of gold-buying in China, sign of a lack of confidence.
Monday 29 October 2019/ Hour 1, Block D: Michael Yon, Hong Kong reporter, in re: Hong Kong. Police tear gas to block protestors. On Sunday, shot gas deep into a pharmacy, and a bus full of people; and canisters under adjacent cars, so drivers were caught inside their gassed cars. The pharmacy videos are horrible; I livestreamed it; so much smoke couldn't tell what happened. Hong Kong citizens are extremely displeased.
We’ve reached a tipping point; last night, gas actually reached the seventh floor into someone’s apartment. People furious. Also, arresting people for wearing masks. A local photographer, given name Mei, was arrested Sunday night and released Monday. I’ve been hit twice with rubber bullets or something kinetic . Journalists are targeted.
Protestors specifically targeting Bank of China ATMs (Mainland-owned). Not touching any other bank. People released after detention (about 2,700 so far): some emerge looking beat-up. Mosque here was hit by blue dye from police, which angered Muslims.
www.MichaelYon-Online.com (Main website)
Monday 29 October 2019/ Hour 2, Block A: David M Drucker, Washington Examiner, & John Fund, NRO, in re: The impeachment? News today that Mrs Pelosi, after defending her decision not to hold a vote, now has decided to hold a vote, perhaps as early as this coming Thursday. . . . GOP will say, “Doesn't matter what you do now as this whole thing has been poisoned from the beginning: too little, to late.” Democrats will say that GOP members of committees who have not been excluded from the room – why can’t they speak out?
A Devin Nunes aide is being excoriated for divulging behind closed doors the name of the whistleblower. Out of balance: One side “leaks,” the other “provides valuable information to the media.” John Dean: __________.
Monday 29 October 2019/ Hour 2, Block B: John Fund, NRO, & David M Drucker, Washington Examiner, in re: The Senate may be the scene of a trial – and it’s a hundred days or less till the Iowa caucus. During such a trial, presided over by a Supreme Court Justice, Congress people may not speak at all. Stuck in a three-week trial letting out just before February first, will make everyone nervous. . . . Hillary will wait in the wings; as for actually running, Michael Bloomberg: Want a centrist who can govern? I’m it. Hillary can be the center of attention without actually running. Joe Biden: Olivia N___ has published a rapine article on Biden in the New Yorker,
Monday 29 October 2019/ Hour 2, Block C: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Beirut, Amman, Baghdad protests. These are linked: same msgs as the time of the so-called Arab Spring, which led to unrest from which we still reel. Demos are against corruption, economic collapse, Hezbollah, and Iran’s dominance. In Lebanon, moving fridges and sofas in the middle of the streets; banks are closed, cd be near economic collapse. Caught Hezbollah did not anticipate the scope or depth of anger. Demos even by Druse, who object to Hezbollah controlling 60% of militias. Checkpoints and militia’s set up by Druse are compromised to day by Hezbollah. Tensions spreading across the entire region. Young people joining demos. Could have long- term consequences, especially collectively.
Optimal outcomes: Aoun ___. People don't want military adventurism; they want food on the table and good governance. Huge funds – drones and PGMs, and urban combat, all in response to the intended War of the North just south of Lebanese border.
The embargo runs out in 2020; must have extension of UN-mandated sanctions against Iran. Mnuchin prepared to impose new sanctions. Hamas is arresting PFLP and Fatah in Gaza; are calling for elections (“One man, one vote, one time”). Sheikh Yassin, founder of Hamas.
Iran’s reaction to Baghdadi’s death. Iran boasts of its control of Lebanon, being the dominant power. The US should be supporting the protestors.
Iran applauded al Baghdadi’s death, but say that Da’ishism is still alive, that the threat is great. Regrouping in Iraq and Syria – Iran is afraid of them.
Monday 29 October 2019 / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Ostracos pottery sherds document life 2000 years ago. Discovered in the Levant about 50 years ago. George Washington University. These sherds are the Post-its of ancient times.
A museum of artifacts after the Pittsburgh massacre. Enormous outpouring of support and love from all over the world.
An ostracon (Greek: ὄστρακον ostrakon, plural ὄστρακα ostraka) is a piece of pottery, usually broken off from a vase or other earthenware vessel. In an archaeological or epigraphical context, ostraca refer to sherds or even small pieces of stone that have writing scratched into them.
Monday 29 October 2019 / Hour 3, Block A: Brenda Schaffer, Georgetown University; Atlantic Council Fellow; University of Haifa, in re: Armenian foreign minister, Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, stumbles through interview with Stephen Sackur (BBC HardTalk). Armenia’s anti-corruption probe will begin in 2021. “Institutional capacity to work on corruption.” “No more suitcases of money to be carried to [politicians].” Nagorno-Karabakh: “A huge security challenge, esp of 150,000 of our compatriots; we want peace.” Prime minister said: “Karabakh is definitively Armenian. Period.” Flies in the face of international law, the UN, - everything worldwide except Moscow. Foreign minister is hard-pressed to cover his PM’s aggressive statement. Even Russia is standing back from that assertion. “We need compromise with parity of commitment.” Everyone, including NGOs (Human Rights Watch, European Court of Human Rights, et al.), points to serious human rights abuses by the Armenian military.
Armenia looks to East or West? “Our role is not bipolar.” Ride two horses? . . . The Eurasia Economic Union has 200 mil members.
Monday 29 October 2019 / Hour 3, Block B: Joe Pappalardo, Popular Mechanics, in re: NATO nukes in Turkey. Fifty nukes sit in Incirlik; no way to launch them without the US bringing in enormous aircraft to deliver them. “We’re hostage to our own nukes!”
Monday 29 October 2019 / Hour 3, Block C: Andrew C McCarthy, NRO, Fox, Author of Ball of Collusion; in re: Ukrainegate.
Monday 29 October 2019 / Hour 3, Block D: Andrew C McCarthy, NRO, Fox, Author of Ball of Collusion; in re: Ukrainegate.
Monday 29 October 2019 / Hour 4, Block A: The Zimmermann Telegram: Intelligence, Diplomacy, and America’s Entry into World War I, by Thomas Boghardt
Monday 29 October 2019 / Hour 4, Block B: The Zimmermann Telegram: Intelligence, Diplomacy, and America’s Entry into World War I, by Thomas Boghardt
Monday 29 October 2019 / Hour 4, Block C: The Zimmermann Telegram: Intelligence, Diplomacy, and America’s Entry into World War I, by Thomas Boghardt
Monday 29 October 2019 / Hour 4, Block D: The Zimmermann Telegram: Intelligence, Diplomacy, and America’s Entry into World War I, by Thomas Boghardt