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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, The Great Voice of the Great Lakes
 
 
Hour One
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 1, Block A:  Tom Joscelyn, FDD; Bill Roggio, FDD; both LongWarJournal; in re:  SEALs found 1.5 million documents in bin Laden’s compound’s library; on Tuesday, another massive release of docs. Will show how the overall organization is structured: an intl org, networked withy plans to survive the drone strikes, and doing a lot globally to get past drones.  We hope to find new nuggets tomorrow; SO far, only a small number of doc have been released.  Tom Donolan said the cache recovered “would fill a small college library”: so far, we have about a shelf-ful.  Of the stuff released so far, was history of al Qaeda and the like, nothing to do with operations or anything that’d interest CIA or its brethren, Probably 99% of the material , a half-decade past the bin Laden raid, not much to worry about release.  We have an overclassification problem, and the bureaucracy is ve-r-y slow.  We’ve agitated for more transparency: fills in a lot of what's missing from the public discourse. . . . US is cozying up to Pakistan, so probably White House wants to avoid to much info to come out that might shine a light on Pakistan’s ISI or other, similar characters.
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 1, Block B:  Tom Joscelyn, FDD; Bill Roggio, FDD; both LongWarJournal; in re:  Taliban in Helmand province; Afghan security forces have raided it?  Taliban control prisons in Helmand – showing that the area is not contested.  Afghan forces can raid only with foreign air support. Can stop Taliban from running prisons if and only if you control the terrain, which Kabul does not. Taliban have Sharia courts: if you're an enemy of Taliban you're killed imprisoned are those with land disputes or petty crimes. Abu Graib of the Taliban, which sees itself as a govt: The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; Have commissions of comms, military, refugee education, transport.  Kerry says – testifying to the Senate - with a straight face that Afghanistan is getting better, that the Taliban can be friends.   Good grief.  . . . Astounding duplicity. Afghan forces gave Haqqani plenty of advance warning.   Sen Corker, thank God, made clear assertions. Ahmed, in G’mo til 2004 & transferred to Spain; where the court freed him. On 23 Feb 2016 was arrested in N Africa for recruiting for both ISIS and al Nusrah. Among the jihadis, it's a calling card ot have been in G’mo.  More important: mil knowledge, and knowledge of shariah law. Ahmed may have got sophisticated training in al Q camps in August 2001; training that still plays a factor in events in 2016.
Saudi Arabia targets alleged Hezbollah procurement agents  All of the entities targeted by Saudi Arabia also stand accused by the U.S. of bolstering Hezbollah’s military influence, including in areas that could be used against Saudi Arabia or Saudi proxies in places such as Syria or Yemen.
Shabaab suicide assault team strikes hotel in Mogadishu  The suicide assault was likely executed by the Abu Musab al Zarqawi Martyrdom Battalion. Shabaab routinely targets hotels in the Somali capital.
Pakistan is ‘very cooperative and very engaged in the fight against terrorism,’ Secretary Kerry tells Congress "The government itself, the military has been very cooperative and very engaged in the fight against terrorism," Secretary of State John Kerry told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, despite Pakistan's continuing support of the Taliban and other jihadist groups.
Islamic State ‘Khorasan province’ advertises training camp  The Islamic State promotes it capabilities as it continues to fight an uphill battle to gain supporters in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the main Taliban factions and al Qaeda still have the upper hand.
Shabaab threatens more attacks in Kenya  Shabaab's leader in Kenya warns jihadists will turn the country's flag red with "the blood that we will spill in Kenya." READ MORE →
IRGC Saberin Special Forces at work in Syria  Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps mourns commandos from the "Saberin" killed in Syria. The Saberin is a unit modeled after Western special forces.
2 Damascus-based jihadist groups swear allegiance to Al Nusrah Front  Two small jihadist groups in Damascus, Ansar al Sharia and Al Muntasir Billah, have sworn allegiance to Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda's official branch in Syria. Several organizations have joined Al Nusrah since late last year.
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 1, Block C: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast, in re:   Philippines court case demanding that China “respect” – not contest – a Hague ruling. China doesn’t acknowledge the Hague as having any jurisdiction, that China’s sea claims are historic; so clearly will not respect the ruling. China’s claims are entirely without foundation throughout most of the South China Sea.  When China signed Law of he Sea treaty, it held out exceptions: one of which is not to have to accept Hague jurisdiction. Knew that there claims for 90% of South China Sea were outlandish.   All China’s neighbors are deeply unhappy, and the US supports the global commons. China goes to the dark side.  China is a regime that’s antithetical to liberty to, clear government; cannot be trusted. At least this is getting a little clear in the minds of policymakers.  “My inner Karl Marx says this is economic anxiety.”   For the fourth day in a row Beijing drove the RMB to a new low; t G20 meeting did not issue a statement backing up Beijing, Official PMI still  down for a record seventh month in a row: ___  Mfrg sector has passed a point of no return; has a one-way ticket to the bottom.   Reserve requirement ratio:  Beijing dropped this once again –so much money is leaving China that they're tight on liquidity, need to inject more money into the banking system, are desperate.  China has M2 - broad gauge of money supply – is huge even though the US has a much bigger economy.   They can delay the denouement for a while, but every time they do they make it worse. 
Chinese statistics appear to substantially overstate the country's  exports:   http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2016/02/28/china-ran-a-36-billio... SE Asian foreign ministers voice concerns on South China Sea  ; The strategically important South China Sea is at the center of a territorial dispute involving ...
This Map Visualizes China's Growing Military Capabilities in the South China Sea   ; ASEAN says seriously concerned about rising South China Sea tensions
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 1, Block D: Jed Babbin, American Spectator, in re: Obama's last shot at closing Gitmo will fail unless the Republicans in congress cave in. Again.
Obama’s Gitmo Guilt Trip
 
Hour Two
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 2, Block A: John Fund, NRO; David M Drucker, Washington Examiner, in re:   GOP rules changes from years ago now seem unhappy for the Party; can we change them back?  New York Times: “I think the establishment will do anything it can to prevent Trump from . . .“  Could include changing rules that bind delegates to candidates.  Looking at a1952 battle again - Eisenhower vs Taft; Rules Committee decided, Ike won.    In the Internet age, look for fisticuffs. Rules change to alter the outcome of the voting:  nobody has enough delegates to wrap up the convention. Or does Trump have enough to be de facto candidate – and then take control of RNC and install his own people?   Will the Party and its delegates have the stomach to say, “We want to alter the outcome even after all this”? Would the GOP establishment love to do it? Yes. Capable of doing it? Not clear; everything they've done so far it boomerangs against them.   A helpful suggestion: line the committee with federal judges. The more the Republican establishment [sneaks around], the more they lose support.  So far, 75% of the race coverage has been Trump – that’s inordinate; accorded extraordinary deference by the media. Profl media watchdogs don't know how to stop looking at the train wreck instead of the issues. Is it exciting to watch a hose burn down.  Over the last five days, Rubio’s coverage has skyrocketed.   This is because Rubio just leveled rank, low, [nauseating] insults at Trump.  This multiplies the attention he’s got.  . . . It's the public’s fascination with Trump that drives everything,  See John Fund’s excellent piece in NRO.
Nate Silver: “If a realignment is under way, then it poses a big empirical challenge. Presidential elections already suffer from the problem of small sample sizes — one reason a lot of people, certainly including us, shouldn’t have been so dismissive of Trump’s chances early on. Elections held in the midst of political realignments are even rarer, however. The rules of the old regime — the American political party system circa 1980 through 2012 — might not apply in the new one. And yet, it’s those elections that inform both the conventional wisdom and statistical models of American political behavior.”
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 2, Block B:  John Fund, NRO; David M Drucker, Washington Examiner, in re:  Hillary Clinton is the leading candidate; already saying that Mr Trump is a worthy opponent. Only a meteor strike or a DOJ strike can interfere.  Looks as though she’ll do really well on Tuesday; how many are real Democratic voters and how many were just drawn in by Mr Sanders and will fade way before election time? She’s not too much liked and she’s a legacy candidate; and the Party base is a lot more left than it was when her husband was president (as the GOP has gone a lot more right).  She won twice and this encourages more votes.   When people believe, people stick with it.  “. . .case against Trump on two levels: temperament, and can he be relied on [to represent anyone] but himself?”   What about Trump?  JF: “He’s a racist bogeyman!”    Various people – incl Party chairman: “I’ve been a Republican all my life but I can't vote for Trump.”
Democratic strategist David Plouffe told Politico that Republican efforts to coalesce around one alternative to Donald Trump are too little too late.
Joshua Green: “Dropping out would violate the logic of Cruz’s whole political career. And anyone acquainted with his character and ambition should probably assume, as I do, that he won’t. Although his odds of winning the nomination are long, Cruz is bound to do what’s best for Cruz… That will entail staying in the race all the way through to the Republican convention in Cleveland—no matter what happens.”
 
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 2, Block C: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:   US media has given limited coverage to this important dvpt in Iran: Council of Experts, and parliament.  For the parliament there were 6,000 candidates for a few hundred seats (large numbers were knocked out by the regime); those approved by the Guardian Council . . .  Supreme Leader cannot annul the vote.   Ayatollah Khamenei appoints six of the twelve members.  Victory of so-called moderates – in fact, moderates were eliminated early in the game.  Bogus. One guy was implicated in chain murders; wicked intell agents and many are notorious for horrible deeds.   Sounds like the Soviet Union “elections” – candidates picked by the regime.  . .  Ran in the holy city of Qom;   local, tribal, regional factors all figure in voting.  Land mass is as large as Turkey, Syria and Iraq.  Pres Obama wants to make amends to the mullahs for all the unhappy things the US did before Obama was president; that he wants to visit and open an embassy there. Nixon/China moment? Obama/Havana moment?   Recall that 45% of the economy is owned by Khamenei and the IRGC.   Remember the fellow who said that Israelis aren't human?  The one who wants the death penalty for Moussavi?  To find a moderate, read Steny Hoyer: No mater who wins, Iran will still be elected by an undemocratic theocratic regime, will call for death to the US and the West.
Moderation, Tehran Style - Editorial
The Iran nuclear deal's cheerleaders are proclaiming Friday's election results as a triumph for the Islamic Republic's "moderate" and "reformist" factions. Some moderates. Consider Mostafa Kavakebian. The General Secretary of Iran's Democratic Party, Mr. Kavakebian is projected to enter the Majlis as a member for Tehran. In a 2008 speech he said: "The people who currently reside in Israel aren't humans."
    Another moderate is Kazem Jalali, who previously served as spokesman for the National Security and Foreign Affairs Committee of the Majlis and is projected to have won a seat. In 2011 Mr. Jalali said his committee "demands the harshest punishment" - meaning the death penalty - for Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the two leaders of the pro-democracy Green Movement who are still under house arrest. The political reality in Iran is that the Ayatollahs, backed by the Revolutionary Guards, remain firmly in control. (Wall Street Journal)
The Farce of Iranian Elections - Eyal Zisser
Friday's elections for Iran's Majlis (parliament) and for the Assembly of Experts were apparently a celebration of democracy. President Hassan Rouhani and his fellow reformist camp leader, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, did well and will likely enjoy a much more comfortable position in parliament this time around. But we should question whether the results will really change the way Iran operates in the region and with regard to Israel.
    After all, there were thousands of candidates demanding real change who were banned from participating in this celebration of democracy. This means that whoever is elected - even if he is committed to reform and change - is part and parcel of the Islamic Revolution and is certainly not looking forward to its collapse. At most, he will try to make improvements to it.
    Aside from that, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls the country's security and defense, is dedicated to safeguarding the spirit of the revolution. If the Guards sense that Rouhani is threatening the revolution or their own status, they are likely to try to overthrow him. Prof. Eyal Zisser is former director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University. (Israel Hayom)
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:   Syria. Yemen. BDS.  Turkish second army.  Golan: when you drive up to t he north of Israel, see a new defensive line, carved cliffs out of the hills, some 10 meters high to prevent infiltration by Hezbollah.  Netanyahu gave a strong speech at opening of cabinet mtg: welcome a long-term arrangement, but must stop killing of civilians, or Iranian aggression in Israel (e.g., Hezb). A hundred thousand rockets can  . . .  Note that Hezb gives houses to families with living room, bedroom and rocket room.  Israel fears having to strike so fast that it won't have time to place warning calls in advance. The cowardice of hiding rockets inside private homes. Is Israel preparing the world to understand this?  Yes; and also taking in thousands of Syrians into hospitals.   Yemen: proxy war ‘twixt Riyadh and Teheran. Marching down the coast and taking cities. Seems not to be of any interest?  Very serious. Iran provides more and more weapons – support for Houthis (the Yemeni rebels) – have captured hundred of Saudi soldiers in Saudi Arabia, fired rockets into a southern Saudi city. Saudis trying to stop the assaults. West waited too long to respond, so Houthis took the capital Sanaa.   UAE said to be pulling its troops out of Yemen – very volatile.  Many blame the king’s son for going in to this fight inadequately prepared.  Becomes a domestic political issue. 
Moderation in Iran? Don't Get Your Hopes Up - Aaron David Miller
The Iran nuclear accord will consolidate the government's power, not undermine it. Iran got access to billions of dollars in frozen assets, the prospect of billions more in trade deals with Europe and Asia, and the capacity to develop nukes down the road if it wants to. An improved economy co-opts pressure for change in Iran, even though it is the elites, not the broader public, that will be the primary beneficiaries.
    At the top of Iran's power structure sits supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who has no intention of letting the U.S. or Rouhani slip significant change through the back door of the nuclear agreement. Khamenei will ensure that there is no serious normalization with Washington, and that interactions with the Americans are purely functional. The writer is a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. (Los Angeles Times)
 
Hour Three
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 3, Block A: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; in re:
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 3, Block B:  Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; in re:
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 3, Block C: Gregory Copley, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs, in re: Defense & Foreign Affairs sources embedded with Kurdish forces: first-hand sources within Kurdish forces in northern Syria reported on February 29, 2016, that some 200 Turkish commando forces, believed to have been attached to the Turkish Second Army, broke the ceasefire in northern Syria on the morning of February 28, 2016, accompanied by approximately 400 fighters from DI’ISH (Islamic State: asad-Dawlah al-Islāmīyah fī al-‘Irāq wash-Shām), attacking the Syrian Kurdish town of Tell Abyad, on the Syria-Turkish border, in the al-Raqqah Governorate. This was the scene, in May-July 2015, of a major Syrian Kurdish YPG (People’s Protection Units: Yekîneyên Parastina Gel) military success known as the Tell Abyad offensive or Martyr Rubar Qamışlo operation.
The new combined Turkish Army/DI’ISH attack on Tell Abyad and YPG positions began at 05.00hrs local on February 28, 2016, and was supported by heavy artillery fire from 24 Turkish Army T-155 Fırtına (Storm) 155mm self-propelled howitzers.
Some 14 Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter aircraft were also reported to have been engaged since the ceasefire began and have taken down two Syrian military unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during the ceasefire, and along the Turkish-Syrian border area. At least four Royal Saudi Air Force F-15S Strike Eagle fighters have also been deployed into the border zone from their new base at Incirlik, Turkey, where they have a support team with two RSAF C-30H Hercules transports. It is not know to what extent the RSAF F-15s have been engaged in cross-border attacks on YPG positions, but there are no reports that they have engaged DI’ISH positions.
It should be stressed that neither Turkey nor DI’ISH — nor Saudi Arabia — are party to the ceasefire agreement which was drafted between Russia and the US, but each party was expected to bring its own allied forces under control.
The Syrian Kurdish sources said that conventional Turkish Army units were now “massing” along the border, and the YPG units
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 3, Block D: Gregory Copley, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs, in re: Australia’s New Defence White Paper and Associated Policy Papers Provoke Significant Major Power Interest.  Analysis. There was little surprise that the 186-page 2016 Australian Defence White Paper, released in Canberra on February 25, 2016, attracted significant interest from major global powers — particularly the People’s Republic of China (PRC) — because it was possibly the most significant Australian public defense policy document since the 1987 Defence White Paper, also known as the Defence of Australia paper issued by the Robert Hawke Government under Defence Minister Kim Beazley, and followed the 1986 Dibb Review by analyst Dr Paul Dibb.
 
Hour Four
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 4, Block A: The Empire of Necessity: Slavery, Freedom, and Deception in the New World, by Greg Grandin  (1 of 8)  http://www.amazon.com/The-Empire-Necessity-Slavery-Deception/dp/1250062101
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 4, Block B: The Empire of Necessity: Slavery, Freedom, and Deception in the New World, by Greg Grandin  (2 of 8)  http://www.amazon.com/The-Empire-Necessity-Slavery-Deception/dp/1250062101
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 4, Block C: The Empire of Necessity: Slavery, Freedom, and Deception in the New World, by Greg Grandin  (3 of 8)  http://www.amazon.com/The-Empire-Necessity-Slavery-Deception/dp/1250062101
Monday  29 February  2016  / Hour 4, Block D: The Empire of Necessity: Slavery, Freedom, and Deception in the New World, by Greg Grandin  (4 of 8)  http://www.amazon.com/The-Empire-Necessity-Slavery-Deception/dp/1250062101