Monday 3 March 2014
Photo, above: Russia's President Vladimir Putin (C), Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) and head of the Russian army's main department of combat preparation Ivan Buvaltsev watch military exercises at the Kirillovsky firing ground in the Leningrad region, March 3, 2014.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter at WJR, The Great Voice of the Great Lakes.
Hour One
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Aaron Task, Yahoo Finance; in re: Ukraine and the markets. TMcC: . . . In 2006, was worried about Putin and revanchism. Today, disheartening to hear all the voices about Ukraine – where were they during the invasion of the sovereign state of Georgia? AT: the markets in reaction to this crisis: an "emergency" mtg of EU ministers for Thurs, praying that he crisis will be resolved before then . . . Germany relies n Russia or oil and natgas. Euros too passive while Putin is testing the US. TMcC: Fine line between nuance and cowardice.
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD; Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, in re: Is it true that after Mr Hagel gets his way, new recruits will be obliged to ride a horse and fire a musket? Maybe not, but we're rapidly losing our warfighting ability. Everyone is flustered about current White House response to Ukraine and Crimea. Ansar al-Sharia: Deputy emir (Tunisia) has left Tunisia and joining the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (al-Qaeda-connected). Tunisian interior minister says that 5,000 Tunisians are fighting in Syria. . . . An overwhelming amt of info. Do the American people see that everything is thrown upside down? It's hard when the leaders are inarticulate and unclear.
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD; Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, in re: Senior core al Qaeda members are in Syria; new fellow: has brothers in Guantanamo; some killed in Chechnya, all active, whole family much trusted by senior al Q. Shura Council. Strategic Planning Council operating full throttle, sending members to main battlefields. White House engaging in dangerous rhetoric about hobbling al Qaeda, which has deep bench, is over 25 years old. Had 20,0000 people go through camps in a few years; have also been recruiting in insurgencies across Mahgreb, South Asia, East Africa. New superstate of Iraq, Syria, maybe Jordan, maybe Kurdistan. West pretends that their sole reason for existence is to attack us – what they've wanted all along is acquire power throughout the Middle East. WH and State have convinced themselves with their own stories? Two problems with Washington: they care abt narratives not truth, and the bureaucracy is so ossified that . The facts contradict the narrative. In fact jihadists are sophisticated actors; are coming again, not intimidated. This notion of obliterating enemies with technology is what Don Rumsfeld was laughed out of office on. Nafi al-Naza – see Long War Journal.
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Francis Rose, Federal News Radio; Lara M Brown, George Washington University, in re:
Hour Two
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: John Fund, National Review Online, and David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Sr Congressional correspondent, in re: 3AM was a deadline for decisions in Crimea. Was a Russian Autonomous Republic handed to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954. Russia was paying substantial rent to Ukraine for use of the Crimean naval base. US pres was in an NSC mtg till 9:30 tonight – "Russians have to [do something good] or face consequences." US allies in Europe are captive to Russian O&G deliveries. In DC, there's a lot of concern about Russia (still animates a lot of Republican foreign policy). Pres feels the need to appear somewhat aggressive. . . . Why doesn't Washington plan for contingencies like this? Gazprom lost $15 bil today; a run on the rule. We could kick them out of the G8 - they’re not a modern economy – and of the WTO. There was hope that Russia would emerge as a functioning democracy.
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: John Fund, National Review Online, and David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Sr Congressional correspondent, in re: It was only Thurs of last week that Russia assured John Kerry that it wouldn’t invade Ukraine – and then did so ht next morning, Embarrassing to Pres Obama. Right now the president is speaking of "sanctioning Russia" – no one knows what that means. Russia isn’t a first-world economy; it's a kleptocracy that needs change. Poll: 73% of Russians opposed intervention in Ukraine; even among old Communists, only 25% favor.
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Matthew Kaminski, WSJ editorial board in Donetsk, in re: The Battle for Eastern Ukraine Is Under Way. Donetsk has generally been politically apathetic. What you saw in Maidan is empathy with Europe; not in Donetsk. Any demonstrations here aren’t much spontaneous, They watch a lot of Russian TV, so have seen much about the Western Ukrainian fascists. Mfrd crisis. Today, a max of 1,000 demonstrators led by unknown figures. Money is in Donetsk, Kharlkiv, and others; controlled by a few powerful men. . . . The two peoples of Ukraine are not east and west; rather, it’s the normal people, who want democracy, vs the people who managed to get their hands on a lot of money and want no change. . . . Fatherland Party. Yulia Timoshenko. Vitali Klitschko. Everything has changed now: Putin has changed the rules of the game. The figure of the moment hereabouts . . .
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: China Calls Gary Locke a "Banana" as US Ambassador Heads Home. Italy will not go along with sanctions on Russia. Pres Obama tonight was looking at sanctions. WaPo editorial board a lost faith in the president's foreign policy and wrote of that. Asia sees this as not only Russia but China, two authoritarian and aggressive states – US let China take Scarborough Shoals – outright thievery – and did nothing. China and Russia smile, Western democracies are not standing firm. US irresolute policy in Syria. Self-inflicted wounds. Say what you will about a red line – but if you do, you have to defend it. Spectacularly bad foreign policy. Japan may believe the many assurances that the US will live up to its treaty obligations. North Korea, Iran, others will act up. Note SHBC reporting on Chinese mfrg below 50 – two months of contraction; mfrg is 44% of the Chinese economy; 46% of the economy is services – depending on mfrg. Natl Peoples Congress mtg convenes on Wednesday.
Hour Three
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 3, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: US president met Israeli PM tonight; a confrontation was expected because of pres Obama's strong declarations to an interviewer (Jeff Goldberg) in advance – "If not [peace]] now, when, and if not [Bibi], who"?" No reference t the ongoing Palestinian provocations, and Palestinians's refusal to acknowledge Israel; half of Palestinians reject a two-state solution; this year, double the number of attacks of last year. Kerry has moved from a joint signing of a document to separate documents, to merely and oral statement. Since we know for a fact that the Iranians are lying on most points – we don’t go after them on human rights, on weaponization, et al.; does the president think they won’t move ahead on high-speed centrifuges? More executions this year than ever before. JB: He's speaking of Satan. MH: We can’t even manage them now, let alone if they move even farther ahead in weaponization. [NYT Nakamura quotation.] This mean that Abbas (now 79 yeas old) has to relinquish the right of return. Netanyahu has released a large number of prisoners; US gives him no credit for that. Meeting lasted three hours. Jeff Goldberg inerview: Pres Obama said that his adversaries believe he'll use ilitary power if he finds that necessary.
OBAMA: Here’s my view. Set aside Iranian motives. Let’s assume that Iran is not going to change. It’s a theocracy. It’s anti-Semitic. It is anti-Sunni. And the new leaders are just for show. Let’s assume all that. If we can ensure that they don’t have nuclear weapons, then we have at least prevented them from bullying their neighbors, or heaven forbid, using those weapons, and the other misbehavior they’re engaging in is manageable.
If, on the other hand, they are capable of changing; if, in fact, as a consequence of a deal on their nuclear program those voices and trends inside of Iran are strengthened, and their economy becomes more integrated into the international community, and there’s more travel and greater openness, even if that takes a decade or 15 years or 20 years, then that’s very much an outcome we should desire.
And the fact that in painstaking fashion, over the course of several years, we were able to enforce an unprecedented sanctions regime that so crippled the Iranian economy that they were willing to come to the table and, in fact, helped to shape the Iranian election, and that they are now in a joint plan of action that for the first time in a decade halts their nuclear program -- no centrifuges being installed; the 20 percent enriched uranium being drawn down to zero; Arak on hold; international inspectors buzzing around in ways that are unimaginable even a year ago -- what that all indicates is that there is the opportunity, there is the chance for us to resolve this without resorting to military force.
And if we have any chance to make sure that Iran does not have nuclear weapons, if we have any chance to render their breakout capacity nonexistent, or so minimal that we can handle it, then we’ve got to pursue that path. And that has been my argument with Prime Minister Netanyahu; that has been my argument with members of Congress who have been interested in imposing new sanctions. My simple point has been, we lose nothing by testing this out.
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Reza Kahlili, Daily Caller and author, A Time to Betray, in re: VIDEO: Iranian drone buzzes U.S. aircraft carrier in Persian Gulf US supercarrier. IRGC news issuance on this: boasted regime's capability to monitor US naval vessels or attack any one at any time Hair-raising video; drone overhead for minutes before F18s took off. Drones can operate at 620 miles.
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Adam Nossiter, NYT, in re: Deadly Attacks Tied to Islamist Militants Shake Nigeria The Islamist group Boko Haram was blamed for the attacks, which killed dozens, including many children watching a soccer match.
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Sid Perkins, Science magazine, in re: EVOLUTION ScienceShot: When Did Feathered Dinosaurs Become Birds? Change in pigment structures may be linked to evolution of warm-bloodedness. BIOLOGY ScienceShot: Ice Age Creatures Grazed More Than Grass Blend of plants that nourished arctic mammoths likely much different than previously thought. ARCHAEOLOGY Scientists Solve Mystery of 'Chinese Pompeii' Famed fossils are of animals killed by a cloud of hot volcanic ash.
Hour Four
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review & Pirates fan, in re: “To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace” Click here for link Having commanded an unprepared, poorly supplied army, George Washington offered a sharp reply when a Constitutional Convention delegate proposed limiting the new country's standing military to 5,000 men.
Washington sarcastically agreed with the proposal, “as long as a stipulation was added that no invading army could number more than 3,000 troops.” Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has proposed reducing the U.S. military to its smallest numbers in nearly 75 years, restructuring its forces and closing bases. The nation can afford a smaller military, he insists, as long as it retains its technological edge and responsive agility.
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Jed Babbin, American Spectator, in re:
How hard was it to anticipate Putin's move into Ukraine? Not hard at all unless you're part of Team Obama. Crimea River | The American Spectator
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Michael Auslin, AEI, in re: Why Did Russia Invade Ukraine? Because the West Is Weak This is the lesson the liberal world needs to relearn, a quarter-century after the fall of the Berlin Wall: none of its choices, be it military cuts, inaction, or diplomatic posturing, happens in a vacuum. While perceptions of Western irresolve or weakness don’t necessarily create conditions of instability by themselves, their real danger is that they make aggressive opportunism seem a more attractive path for revanchists like Putin or revisionist powers like Beijing.
Monday 3 March 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Melik Kaylan, Forbes.com, in re: Putin in Crimea. Putin's Long-Term Plans for the Crimea and Ukraine. Having reported from the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, I have spent the years since then warning against Putin’s feral expansionism. Anyone making half an attempt to link the dots would have predicted the events in Ukraine. Too many Western journalists treated the relentless bullying of Saakashvili’s pro-Western Georgia as somehow dissociated from the mind of Putin, most notably the KGB-style dirty tricks that led to the electoral triumphs of the pro-Kremlin party under the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. Putin’s current conduct in Crimea had to happen sooner or later. Indeed, in a Jan. 23 column I argued that he deliberately destabilized Ukraine and that the next steps would likely involve a Russian intervention.
Putin may be a clever opportunist but he’s above all a predictable long-term strategist. He has devoted his waking hours to reversing the outcome of the Cold War in every action, from rebuilding Russia’s armed forces to realigning the near abroad to meddling in the Middle East. We in the West have acted as if each of his power grabs came as a shock and a surprise, each an isolated incident. Now we are debating the possible responses to the Crimea, when the proper response lies a long way behind us in the form of a renewed Cold War strategic vigilance, one that should never have abated. With a predatory Putin prowling the world, we’ve had no business dawdling in Afghanistan for thirteen years, or any business invading Iraq and driving up oil prices for Putin’s benefit. . . . [more]
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