The John Batchelor Show

Monday 9 July 2018

Air Date: 
July 09, 2018

Image:  Envoys from the Three Kingdoms of Korea: Baekje, Goguryeo, and Silla
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, the Great Voice of the Great Lakes
Hour One
Monday   9 July 2018 / Hour 1, Block A: Tom Joscelyn, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies; & Senior Editor for FDD's Long War Journal; and Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD; in re: [Jude Brett Kavanaugh nominated by Pres Trump for Supreme Court justice.]   . .  .    Ibrahim al Badri’s son killed at thermal power Station in Homs Province?
Baghdadi’s son killed fighting Syrian and Russian forces, Islamic State says   The Islamic State announced today that Hudhayfah al-Badri, the son of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, has been killed during a raid on Syrian and Russian forces in Homs province. Al-Badri's death was announced via a graphic that is part of the Islamic State's "Caravan of the Martyrs" series, which has featured deceased jihadists from around the globe. The so-called caliphate has offered few details concerning al-Badri's purported death.  READ MORE →     ISIS:  Fighting a lot of different enemies.  . . . Palmyra is in Homs. 
Analysis: Pentagon continues to underestimate al Qaeda, downplay ties to Taliban    July 5, 2018   The Pentagon and the US intelligence community have been consistently wrong about al Qaeda's strength in Afghanistan, and evidence of strategic ties between the two groups does indeed exist.   READ MORE →
Monday   9 July 2018 / Hour 1, Block B: Tom Joscelyn, Long War Journal and FDD; and Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD; in re: Pentagon keeps asking to negotiate with Taliban.   Taliban explains that anyone who even attends this conference will be a pawn of the West — that the group will say, “It’s illegitimate to carry on an armed rebellion,” but Taliban will respond: “We were the government here till the US barreled in and took over by force of arms.”  SEE:   ISIS in Libya! 
Taliban brands upcoming religious scholar conference as ‘an absolute anti-Islamic US process’
July 9, 2018     The Taliban described an upcoming conference of religious scholars that will be held in Saudi Arabia later this week as illegitimate and urged Islamic clerics to boycott the meeting. READ MORE
Monday   9 July 2018 / Hour 1, Block C: Gordon Chang, Daily Beast and Forbes,com, in re: The CCP is a product of the Chinese civil war, ending in 1948.  Mao, the strongman/caudillo, took over.  Then he left the scene; successors took over for a decade at a time with control over the military (“the power of the gun”).  Now, Xi Jinping has failed the very system that put him in: he eliminated the term limit – proving that this system (two five-year terms), initiated by Deng Xiao-ping, is broken. Deng tried to normalize behaviors, create rules for succession, although Deng picked Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.   Frankly, there never was a chance that the Deng institutionalizing ever was going to succeed outside of Big Man-ism. 
Xi is “personally opposed to lifetime rule.”  Hunh?  He’s now ruler for life.   Since there’s simply no extant successor to XI, apparently  he’ll have to rule forever. He demanded that everyone – everyone – swear allegiance to him, personally, so there’s no one around to jump in against him.
Monday   9 July 2018 / Hour 1, Block D:  David Maxwell, Colonel, US Army Special Forces (ret); Fellow, Institute of Corean American Studies at Georgetown Uniersity; Twitter: @davidmaxwell161;  in re: The double inside back-flip engineered by Kim.  Kim’s met with the US president and therefore scorns meeting with State Secretary Pompeo?  Unlikely that any in the Kim family will in fact de-nuke the peninsula.
Only way to expunge the Kim family regime is unification under a South Korean government. When that does occur, the Kim family will have a unified Korea remove US troops and dominate the peninsula.  Dangerous that the US president wants to remove troops. 
US sanctions continuing to bite?  China and Russia have much let up pressure.  Could be if US had the will to  — secondary bank sanctions, et al.    Post-Singapore, everybody sang that peace is breaking out all over and thus no need for sanctions. We could mange this if . . . .
The use of the Vietnam model; de facto acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear power and, most importantly, fear of POTUS’s accepting less than CVID: declaring success with no threat to the homeland and then withdrawing US troops as he has "telegraphed" to KJU.  If we’re savvy, we could manage this process over time and exploit opportunities until the only acceptable outcome that will achieve our objectives and protect our interests occurs: the end of the Kim family regime.
This paper has as its thesis five propositions that will be discussed in detail:

  • US and ROK policies are in turmoil, are not coherent, and not synchronized.  There is no long term approach to the “Korea Question.”
  • The ROK-US alliance is eroding rapidly due to actions by both governments and their respective populations.
  • North Korea will continue to execute its strategy to protect its vital national interest: Survival of the Kim Family Regime (KFR) and any strategy devised must take this into account.
  • To achieve a lasting peace on the peninsula, a combined ROK-US strategy that seeks to achieve a mutually agreed upon and acceptable end state must be developed and executed in an orchestrated and cooperative approach.
  • Divergent ROK and US policies must be made compatible (e.g., Kim Dae Jung’s Sunshine policy - and now the Roh Moo Hyun administration’s Peace and Prosperity policy - versus those in the US who want to focus on Regime Change).  Instead of causing regime change externally the ROK and US strategy must be to prepare for a post Kim Family Regime era that arises from internal regime change while at the same time managing the crises as they occur, identifying and exploiting opportunities as they arise, and preparing for the potential conflict that a post-KFR peninsula may trigger.

This paper proposes a long term ROK-US combined security strategy to work toward resolution of the “Korea question”: Comprehensive Engagement with Strength: Partner and Prosper.  It establishes a long term end state toward which all efforts will focus.  It provides a framework that allows management of the current and future crises while simultaneously allowing the ROK and US to identify opportunities stemming from current and future emerging crises that will support achievement of the long term end state.  .
Key Points:

  • Ensure that an effective defensive capability remains in place until the “Korea Question” is resolved
  • Method for developing a combined strategy

(1) Consultations at the political and military level between the ROKG and USG.  
(2) Increased high level contacts.  
(3) Establishment of a combined planning group (Korea Strategy Group (KSG)) with permanent NSC level members that meet on a rotating basis in Washington and Seoul.

  • Repair the alliance: This will take a concerted effort by the President and senior US leadership.  Must come to agreement on the divergent ROK and US policies (sunshine policy versus regime change).  They are not mutually exclusive if you do not use the Iraq/Afghanistan models for regime change.  
  • Proposed mutually acceptable strategic end state: A stable, secure, peaceful, economically vibrant, non-nuclear peninsula, reunified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.

This end state implies regime change.  But it must come from within. Most importantly, while the US desires regime change it has not prepared for it.  Fundamental to the strategy is that near term crises must be managed (and exploited for possible opportunities) while it prepares the foundation for a post Kim Family Regime era.
Hour Two
Monday   9 July 2018 / Hour 2, Block A:  John Fund, NRO, and David M Drucker, Washington Examiner, in re: Brett Kavanaugh identified as Pres Trump’s nomination for Supreme Court Justice.  . . .    “A significant voice in federal agencies n Washington.”  “The Zelig of Forrest Gump” of the judiciary. A skilled, team player; very popular on the DC Circuit; a former Bush appointee. Another Yalie.  “A slam-dunk – you can get him confirmed.”   Conservatives: all initial emails are thumbs-up. Everyone will be fully behind him.  “I coach women’s basketball, my clerks are all women . . “ etc.  Of the possible No votes, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are of concern to the Conservatives: “face of the judge who’ll overturn Roe v Wade and Obamacare.” However, neither is much wedded to Obamacare. Pro-choice women in Alaska an Maine vote for Democrats.   
Monday   9 July 2018 / Hour 2, Block B:  David M Drucker, Washington Examiner, and John Fund, NRO, in re: Both George and Jeb Bush have praised Trump’s choice for the Court. . .  might the Democrats try to Bork Kavanaugh?  . . . Manchin, Heitkamp . . . Montana. North Dakota, Indiana, ___ are deep red states.
Monday   9 July 2018 / Hour 2, Block C: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: The Kushner-Greenblatt peace  initiative is Utopian.  Increasingly, Palestinians show frustration with Abass’s refusal to receive US emissary or entertain any discussion of the initiative.  Abbas also refuses to end the “pay to slay” funding – vast sums to murders.  His popularity s at a all-time low. People in Gaza and the West Bank feeling pain of the widespread diminution of funding for the PA.  Sending fire kites and “toys for terror” – clearly against all international law; started 48 major fires in the last days.  Israeli public becoming very angry.
Germany, Der Bild, wants to send lots of euros to Iran: will fly 300mil euros in cash to agents of Iran, this cash is the fuel for terrorism. An obvious lifeline. Why?*  Outrageous Today, KLM announced suspension of flights to Ian; eke Maersk, South Korean lines, many others.  Oil to go to $250Bbl?   *Either what seems to be more and more prevalent in Europe: a policy of appeasement, or perhaps simple anti-Americanism.  It's so immoral to send cash to a regime that’s killing Muslims, Christians, Jews – as well as supporting Hamas. 
King Abdulla of Jordan: the Dara Crossing on the Jordan-Syria border.    Next: Kuneitra. What advance signs?  Syrian refugees flowing toward the Jordanian border; Kuneitra  .  Do the rebels give in, or follow Russian negotiations.   Is Abbas growing ill and weak?  Widely thought that he’s no longer able to lead.  He may be losing his grip, leading to a breakdown of order in the West Bank, which would be grave for everyone. PA notified the French govt that it was behind the attacks in Gaza – and France voted for the UN resolutions. 
Monday   9 July 2018 / Hour 2, Block D: Indiana Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Huqoq —1600-year-ol mysteries:  multiple universities  have covered gorgeous, polychrome mosaics, unusual for synagogues. Shows that those villagers flourished under Christian rule, Unusual prosperity,  Pix of Samson carrying the Gates of Gaza on his shoulders; also of Alexander the Great, Noah’s Ark,  the spies Moses sent return with grapes, et al.  Very colorful.  
Opposite the Lebanon border, caves where one has to scale down sheer cliffs to reach them, with a treasure of large clay jars.  Needed to get the Army to help.  Had to carry everything up by rope. 
Golan Heights: the ancient city of Zer – entrance gates uncovered in the last two weeks.  Ancient fishing village (where Jesus miraculously fed the multitudes).  Also found a gold coin with portrait of Antonius Pius, and a 35 BC coin minted in Acre; commemorated the arrival of Cleopatra and Mark Anthony.
Hour Three
Monday 9 July 2018/ Hour 3, Block A:  Jeff Diehl, candidate for Senate from Massachusetts, in re:     Massachusetts Senatorial race. Visiting fisheries in Gloucester, Scituate, and New Bedford. Bought a “deal on wheels” an RV in which Diehl travels . Obama began a “sector system” to limit fishing which fishermen have been doing for centuries. New Bedford losing $35-50mil per month. Elizabeth Warren does naught to help, is focused on Washington, Now, 200 NOAA worker have offices in Woods Hole, a lovely place; they’re obviously not interested in interacting with fishermen. Canadians have horned in to fishing grounds in Gloucester, creating major economic problems.
Diehl goes to Mass fishing villages; Elizabeth Warren goes to Baghdad.
Warren favors the abolition of ICE. Protect MS13!  . . . She came to Mass 5-1/2 years ago to audition for the Potomac.
Monday 9 July 2018/ Hour 3, Block B: . Jeff Diehl, candidate for Senate from Massachusetts, in re:  California wildfires
Monday 9 July 2018/ Hour 3, Block C:  Aaron Klein, Middle East bureau chief, Breitbart, in re:   Russiagate. Forty-two names advanced By Devin Nunes to Judiciary and Oversight anent: what did he FBI do and when about the smear campaign?
Christopher Steele has never been questioned publicly.  Fusion GPS. Glenn Simpson.  Nellie Orr, wife of Bruce Orr in Justice.  H Clinton’s former campaign chairman Bobby Mook.  .  . When did the investigation of the Trump campaign by the FBI begin?
Peter Strzok: “It began 31 July, 2016”  - but Carter Page on July 11, and Mifsud earlier, and Steven Miller earlier.   WaPo op-ed.  Victoria Nuland. Sydney Blumenthal; Wiener; Cody Schearer.
“The  obviously-fabricated dossier.”  Renat Akhmetchin.  The famous Trump Tower meeting: on the Magnitsky Act. Akhmetichin admitted that he “may have” been on the Acela with a Clinton insider  - Lieberman – and “may have” met with  him immediately thereafter.  Canadian conference, Kramer.  More Fusion GPS. John McCain.
Monday 9 July 2018/ Hour 3, Block D:  Aaron Klein, Middle East bureau chief, Breitbart, in re:   Russiagate. . .  Clapper.  . . .
Hour Four
Monday 9 July 2018/ Hour 4, Block A: Jerry Hendrix, Telemus Group; NRO; was Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security); retired Captain in the United States Navy, whose staff assignments included tours with the Chief of Naval Operation’s Executive Panel. @JerryHendrixII ; in re: NATO; Europe and the American Navy. Pres Trump called many Europeans “free riders” on NATO – only six of the 29 members, incl USA, who spend fully 2% of national budget on NATO.  Ergo, 23 nationals are used to having the US pay their expenses. For years, the US carried all the weight, under Chernenko , Andopov, others.  US has saved Europe three times in one century, yet Europeans are not ready to pay a fair share.  For a long time, te US was willing to do his, but then Europe began the “European Experiment, being the EU and some of their political ideas to join ass a continent; did so under he protective cover of the US. Now they have a major competitive edge, and it's time for European allies to cover heir own costs. Germany is still at 1.28% of GDP despite the fact that it's the a largest economy in Europe Some are using creative arithmetic, incl pensions and refugees spending, to pretend to cover costs. Some have 100% divested of mobile forces. 
30-30-30-30 Plan: they're not even close to that.
The basic question is: why shd we be so concerned about European security if they’re not?
Secretary Matttis is highly aware of [almost all of the tech specs needed]. NATO in Europe is nowhere close to being combat-ready.
Monday 9 July 2018/ Hour 4, Block B:   Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re:  The  IRGC’s fall
Monday 9 July 2018/ Hour 4, Block C:   Napoleon: A Life, by Andrew Roberts
Monday 9 July 2018/ Hour 4, Block D:  Napoleon: A Life, by Andrew Roberts