Thursday 20 September 2012
Photo, above: LFJL strongly condemns recent attacks of religious shrines in Libya
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Jeff Bliss, The Bliss Index; Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial page; Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Thursday 905P Eastern Time: Mary Kissel, in re: the economy, domestic and global. In gist: don’t hold your breath waiting for success of Bernanke spending stimulus, for China to recover – no one's buying in US or Europe; $40 bil per month forever.
Thursday 920P Eastern Time: Ann Marlowe, Hudson Institute, in re: Libya. [See: WSJ Europe, OPINION EUROPE: 18 Sept 2012, Hope Yet for Libya - In local politics as in fashion, Libyans' stubborn individualism will confound outsiders' expectations.] In the city of Derna, al Q has been pushed out to live in nearby caves, are thought to have participated in the consular attack; some citizens say that it would have been better to confront them directly and so rid the region of their presence. Women may hold very low-level elective office but enjoy few rights and little social mobility.
Thursday 935P Eastern Time: Sean Trende, sr elections analyst, RealClearPolitics.com, in re: poll - Barack Obama (48%) and Mitt Romney (46%) remain closely matched in key 2012 election swing states. Twenty-two percent of voters in those states are undecided or say they could change their presidential preference. The president needs to be at 50% with the electorate on election day; otherwise polls [are flexible]. Mood of the country: 53.3% unhappy with the direction of the country.
Thursday 950P Eastern Time: Bill Roggio, Long War Journal & FDD, in re: Who assassinated Chris Stevens, US ambassador to Libya? Ex-Gitmo detainee reportedly tied to consular attack: Sufyan ben Qumu was transferred from Guantanamo to Libya in 2007, and then freed in 2010. He leads a brigade in Ansar al Sharia and is a key al Qaeda operative in Libya, according to a Congressional report. http://www.longwarjournal.org/#ixzz2746LTEuk This administration wants us to believe that after the demise of bin Laden, al Qaeda is finished; it declines to acknowledge any problem in Libya even though al Q is running raining camps there. Wahhabist and Salafist groups are on the rise. Renewed excitement on jihadist Internet boards – excitement because recent losses were discouraging to them but now it all looks better for them, esp for recruiting. Ben Qumu was directly tied to 9/11, was called medium- to high-risk, was released, and is back in the battle. Has anyone lost his job after 9/11 – head of CIA, anybody? No. No one. US announces withdrawal of sure forces in Afghanistan. US has suffered a self-inflicted defeat in Afghanistan from telegraphing retreat: we ceded he edge to the enemy. Taliban: US has all the watches, we have all the time. Last week they destroyed one of the most secure installations on the planet and inflicted heavy losses. Stull allied w al Q and other radical groups there.
Thursday 1005P (705P Pacific Time): Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Loose in Cyrenaica: Ex-Gitmo detainee reportedly tied to consular attack: Sufyan ben Qumu was transferred from Guantanamo to Libya in 2007, and then freed in 2010. He leads a brigade in Ansar al Sharia and is a key al Qaeda operative in Libya, according to a Congressional report. Al Qaeda victory. Egypt, Libya, Sinai, Syria – huge swaths of Middle East are exploding and it's not because of the film. Iranian accuses MI-6 of misleading IAEA. No one at IAEA or the EU seems to keep a calendar on Iran's nuclear activities. "More negotiations." Iran says, "It'll take us at least a month before we can start again." Catherin Ashton smiles. "IAEA is infiltrated by terrorists and saboteurs" – while hundreds of thousands of jobs in Iran are gone, inflation is staggering the national budget is crushed. Russia says, No grounds for continued sanctions. Susan Rice: "Iran's arms exports to the murderous Syrian regime are of particular concern." Hunh? This is an old story, and Iraq is allowing Iran safe passage of the arms. Hundreds of planes used by Iran to transfer weapons – Maliki is directly involved. King Abdullah warned: Pull out of Iraq and what structure will be left? Maliki is in the pocket of the Iranians.
Thursday 1020P (720P Pacific Time): Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Paymaster is Cairo, Riyadh or worse. Sinai rebels accuse Egypt of barbarism. Israel air force struck two who were about to launch a major attack. Egypt no longer controls Sinai. Morsi 's interest: close down a little smuggling because of its impact on Egyptian economy. Islamists attacked Egyptian HQ yesterday; a band attacked a multinational observer force. Abbas at GA next week. UDI: unilateral declaration of independence – to undermine any remaining peace process; PA receives hundreds of millions of dollars, routes a lot of them into private accounts. Obama Administration & PA? WH knows that Abbas has sabotaged most efforts, but speaks with Fayyad; disappointed. Turkish-Syrian border: dramatically deteriorating. Assad in Syria cd hold out for years with Russian and Iranian help. Assad's sister Bushra defected.
Thursday 1035P (735P Pacific Time): Edwin Black, investigative author, in re: How Iran is getting the bomb. IBM and the Holocaust. What's needed for Iran to have a deliverable nuclear weapon: accretions, machining, spheroid, rocket. Iraninas have been on a 15-year march, are with abt 6 mos off; are 90% of the way to 90% . Have machined the U into a dense, highly volatile spheroid for nose cone; dvpd detonation device: R-265 detonator, designed by Ukrainian scientists, have tested in a 400 meter shaft w control room 10mi away. Shahab 3 missile can deliver as air burst 650 meters above ground – what the US used above Hiroshima and Nagasaki. GETN explosive. The NIE was politicized, not genuine. The IAEA has already ascertained all hat I've said and has published it since 2005-2008. I assembled restricted info because in recent days the IAEA has released these reports, and I mined them carefully, First moments of Iran's nuclear quest went back to Pakistan: A Q Khan admitted he gave the technology and vendors. As they move the whole process underground they'll be in the "zone of immunity." It's too hard for the media to tell the real story so they just fudge. Shahab 3 Missile can reach Italy, and soon will reach the US; and Iran is working to take the program into outer space. Trigger? If Iran moves to close the Strait of Hormuz (2-mile sea lanes), then an armada of ships will take countermeasures, and that will start it. Missiles can be launched from a highway, an orchard, and shopping mall. Quds Force may do sabotage and terrorism everywhere, incl the US. Six mos? Summer 2013?
Thursday 1050P (750P Pacific Time): Michael Eisenstadt, senior fellow and dir, Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program, in re: US-Israel relations. Israeli has generated a good deal of cutting-edge technology, civilian and military; Rumors that Stuxnet and other malware were the result of joint US-Israeli cooperation. "Non-kinetic" battle with Iran. These become highly useful to the entire world – water, food, public health. Several major US firs have R&D centers in Israel: HP, IBM, others. Microprocessing chips developed in Israel. World-class R&D at half to two-thirds the cost of in US. Could be of enormous benefit to Israel's neighbors were there pacific cooperation. Israel pioneered desert and arid-regions agriculture. Cybersecurity. UAVs and drones.
Thursday 1105P (805P Pacific Time): Ilan Berman, VP, American Foreign Policy Council (Washington, DC.), in re: What Israel would have to pay were there a war with Iran. BDI (Israel's largest info group): $41 billion. This wld be a huge percentage of Israel's budge, but war is still seriously being discussed. Iran: 25% inflation. Losing $140mil daily in lost oil sales. Unemployment and underemployment – sanctions having a tangible, marginal effect – but no regime change of heart on nuclear program. Not much worldwide clarity on the struggle we're in: capable analysts in govt and outside, but are in media crosshairs. We still don’t speak clearly on the issues of the war on terror. Israelis now know the contours of what the US will and won't do; still contemplating moving forward with or without the US. Tajikistan: post-Soviet space; immed after 9/11, Russia acquiesced to US entering Central Asia; now are concerned US wd use posts permanently, so revert to neo-Soviet type, Tajikistan is a last remaining bastion where the US can compete. Case study of whether or not we’re in full retreat. This Administration is not shaping events; rather, is being dragged along by them.
Thursday 1120P (820P Pacific Time): Román D. Ortiz, Director of Decisive Point, Colombia, in re: Hezbollah in Latin America: terrorism and organized crime. Detention of Hezbollah agt in Merida (Yucatan), with false passports provided by Hezbollah; we now know that there's a Hezbollah network in Central and South America. Connected directly to Lebanon [throughout Central and South America and the East Caribbean, the "Syrians" – Arabs whose ancestors emigrated from Greater Syria, currently mostly Lebanon – have long held mercantile and straw-boss positions and been mainstays of local and regional economies. It was through members of this group that jihadists infiltrated the Tri-Border Area of Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina. Significant financing left South America to support jihadists "back at home"; now it's a gravely dangerous region that trains and sends out operatives to the Western Hemisphere. www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/TerrOrgCrime_TBA.pdf ] Two locations of close contacts with organized crime: Mexico – hit man from Mexican cartel to kill the Saudi ambassador to DC; also Colombia, narcotraffickers launder money and move drugs. Hezbollah using Lebanese with multiple kinds of false passports. Gather intelligence and carry out attacks. Hezbollah starts by bldg cells in a financial network, then converting the network to terrorist attacks. Are in Mexico and Central America in order to project activities into the US. FARC has 9,000 full-time combatants + 9,000 part-timers. ELM is 1,500 strong. All have increasingly strong connections with Iran. Vide: Chavez-ayatollahs connections, incl long-range missile technologies. The UN bans military cooperation with Iran, but Venezuela and Iran ignore that.
Thursday 1135P (835P Pacific Time): Anita Sengupta, in re: Curiosity mission to Mars and the next challenge for JPL, missions to Jupiter’s moons.
Thursday 1150P (850P Pacific Time): Steve Lohr, NYT, in re: Adobe Photoshop, and how to tell if a picture has been altered
Thursday/Fri 1205A (905 Pacific Time): Mary Kissel, in re: the economy, domestic and global. In gist: don’t hold your breath waiting for success of Bernanke spending stimulus, for China to recover – no one's buying in US or Europe; $40 bil per month forever.
Thursday/Fri 1220A (920 Pacific Time): Ann Marlowe, Hudson Institute, in re: Libya. [See: WSJ Europe, OPINION EUROPE: 18 Sept 2012, Hope Yet for Libya - In local politics as in fashion, Libyans' stubborn individualism will confound outsiders' expectations.] In the city of Durna, al Q has been pushed out to live in nearby caves, are thought to have participated in the consular attack; some citizens say that it would have been better to confront them directly and so rid the region of their presence. Women may hold very low-level elective office but enjoy few rights and little social mobility.
Thursday/Fri 1235A (935P Pacific Time): Sean Carroll, NYT, in re: pit viper and vampire bat and the genes that make for infrared, same as the gene that allows us to discern peppers.
Thursday/Fri 1250A (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. Sid Perkins, in re: Amazon forest makes its own rain.
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Music (using New York City broadcast times)
9:00 hour: Mad Max; Flight of the Phoenix; Land of the Dead.
10:00 hour: Hanna; Gears of War.
11:00 hour: Gears of War; The Kingdom; Hanna.
midnight hour: Mad Max; Flight of the Phoenix; Ghost Writer.