The John Batchelor Show

Thursday 25 August 2016

Air Date: 
August 25, 2016

Photo, left: 
Co-host: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents
Hour One
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 1, Block A: Mona Charen, NRO, and Bill Whalen, Hoover, in re:  "Trump isn't changing his policies; he's changing the words he uses to describe them."  Why is Ann Coulter having a meltdown?  Trump is leaving deportation and moving to the scarlet letter of the GOP: Amnesty. How do you do all that?  Every time he speaks, the positions are enormously varied.   An unfolding disaster of epic proportions; "the Titanic."   If Trump has one ace up his sleeve, it's that he’s running against Clinton.  Coming in the next segment:: the alt right.  If Trump Wants to Be The One, Why Not Promise One Term and Done?
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 1, Block B:  Mona Charen, NRO, and Bill Whalen, Hoover, in re: Mrs Clinton needs to keep diverting attention and to cleave Trump's camp.  We're in store for mud pies for the next 73 days. Were Hillary not the most corrupt candidate in the history of the nation, she’d have a ten-point lead.  /   Trump open to ‘softening’ laws to help illegal immigrants   Trump has been wrestling with how to handle the millions of immigrants living illegally in the country.   /  Inside Trump’s new strategy to counter the view that he is racist
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 1, Block C: Patrick K O'Donnell, author, in re: Washington's Immortals, the untold story of an elite regiment.   Focus on the Battle of Long Island. Patrick writes often about men at war who won when by all measures they should have lost.  Spoke tonight at Fraunces Tavern. Battle of Long Island (today: Brooklyn) is arguably as important as Gettysburg.  . . . Americans - Smallwood's Battalion - were along the Heights of Gowanus (now Prospect Park and Greenwood Cemetery); Britons distracted the main force with 10,000 troops, when two-thirds of the army went through the small Jamaica pass and surrounded the Americans.  It was the Marylanders who saved the day. Focal point was the Stone House, which contained light cannon, and thousands of Hessian soldiers surrounding the Americans.  The American Thermopylae.  Washington marvelled at the sacrifice of the heroic Marylanders. Because the British weren't expecting the Americans to do what they did,  the Brits hesitated - the only event that made it possible for Americans to escape.  Then a massive nor'easter, where the rain was so severe that Washington decided to leave.  Then fog set it;  Glover and the Marblehead men conducted one of the greatest escapes in US history.  Then a sort of two-week hiatus with a peace conference that did not succeed; then the war continued.  
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 1, Block D:  Patrick K O'Donnell, author, in re: Washington's Immortals, the untold story of an elite regiment.  The turning point where the Americans lost - except that the Marylanders decided to sacrifice themselves in order to save the army.  Earlier this week, Patrick O’Donnell spoke at the Maryland State House in the old chambers, where Washington resigned and turned control over to the Congress instead of becoming a dictator (of which George III had said, "If he does that he'll  be the greatest man alive.").  The Old Stone House Park is open; can see the reconstructed stone house. In Greenwood Cemetery, a monument, and another small one in Prospect Park . What's missing is a monument to the men who died - Washington's Immortals, or the Maryland 400.  
Hour Two
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 2, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Harassing of US naval warships  (Nitze) in the Persian Gulf near Straits of Hormuz: bolder, nastier, more confident; IIRGC's navy, reports directly ti Iranian leadership, running coastal defense since 2007; seized the UK Royal Navy personnel and American personnel recently; done seriatum.  If we allow this to go unresponded-to, they'll be sure they have nothing to fear; the lead (?) ayatollah spoke of expanding in Asia, Africa and South America; and spoke of social media as positive (after having violently crushed Iranian social media and killing bloggers).  Biggest mistake the US could make is to do something dramatic; everyone in the Middle East watches.  Now Iran is suing Saudis against deaths in last year’s hajj. Have six mil camps near Kirkuk run by Iran.  Iranians have believed since 198_ that Americans are incoherent and incapable during an election cycle.  The NIAC conference – NIAC is a mouthpiece of the Iranian regime.  . . .  Because of the absence of the West, . . . when one team leaves the field, the other team wins.   . . .   Russians have been bldg an air force base in Hamadan for the last year. They’re digging in for a long haul.   Palestinians are rioting against not Israel but against the PA.   
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 2, Block B:  Ilan Berman, American Foreign Policy Council, in re: Russia in the Middle East; Turkish coup nudging Erdogan toward Russia; non-random ransom.  Russian strategic bombers in Iran: here? Gone? Here?  The small disagreement wasn’t over Russia deploying here, but how public the information was to be.   Will be there till Iran implodes and Russia can pick up the pieces of the Iranian air force.  High-speed Iranian intercept of US naval vessel:  the field of play in the Middle East is open, US is absent Turkey:  NATO used to have nukes there.  Is Ergdogan inviting Russians to share Incirlik with Turkey and the US?  Maybe not, what with institutional restraints.  Russian economy is suffering terribly—in dire straits.  Last week's honeymoon 'twixt Moscow and Ankara has faded; after a bomb at a wedding, Turkey has moved against ISIS in Syria that let anti-Assad rebels move more freely.  This displeases Putin. State Dept doesn’t have an idea about what US strategy should be in Syria; the US has fewer options even than before.  t
Ilan Berman is Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. An expert on regional security in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Russian Federation, he has consulted for both the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. Department of Defense, and provided assistance on foreign policy and national security issues to a range of governmental agencies and congressional offices. He has been called one of America's "leading experts on the Middle East and Iran" by CNN.
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 2, Block C:  Nadav Pollak, Washngton Institute, now at ADL counterterrorism unit; in re: Nasrallah struggles to explain to Lebanese Shi'a the dead and wounded from Syria, Iraq and in Lebanon.  Then new enemies (incl Jabat al Nusrah) heaved into sight; so today some Lebanese don’t buy the narrative but others do.  At some point an accounting for the thousands of dead? --Well, Lebanes e supprot for Hezb has declined, but some conintues: fightes get income and there;s really no alternative.  Increase attracivenes of Hezbolah drones, for reconnaissance, intell, and attack.  Note that short-rance rocets aren;t too accurate but with larger warheads (half-ton) can overwhelm IDF defense and cause he proems in nothern border.  Terrifying  / Siege of Aleppo:  rebels call themselfves not-quite-al-Nusrah: pauses, armistices, transitory fighting.     Hezb fighting htere.  Aleppo is currently the main battlefront.  Financial situation:  when il prce ws ry low, salary cuts fo Hezb. TOday, not so many reports of htat; also US Treasury sanctions t not crippling to IHezb, and Iran will pay overage  esp sicne Irnaina ecnomy is doing better after "Iran deal."  Five eas ntot he Syrian civil wr: an exit pan? Is this forever?  For Hezb this is an existential war; cd co on for a deade (or more) as lng as the Assad regime is in danger.  Have forces of 45,000, and 5 to 8,o000 at any one time are fighting; rotations.  Disillusioned: I joined to fight Is rael and now am killing Arab brethren in Syria.  
Nadav Pollak is a former Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation fellow at the Washington Institute, where he focused on counterterrorism issues in the Middle East. A former analyst for the government of Israel, Nadav also served as an NCO in the IDF Intelligence Corps
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 2, Block D: Joseph Humire, global security expert specializing in asymmetric warfare; in re:  We're all in the Mohamed Zarif fan club; he’s in South America now getting bits of praise from the Ayatollah.  Strategic visit, major media announcements: "commercial relations and economic investment" - but in the worst-performing nations, so not likely: also, 25-40% of Iran’s economy is in the IRGC so definitionally is military; also, Bolivia and ____ are the essential pair.  Cuba: Iran has becoe much more arrogant about relations with the US: "Cuba and Iran are tow nations that can stand against he US and overcome embargoes."  If Cuba agrees to anything on Zarif’s agenda, so will the rest of the Bolivarian Alliance. Next month, Venezuela will host the Nonaligned Movement.  In Venezuela these days: looting,, plundering ,desperate search for medicine.  Iran has been in Venezuela for a long time, Iran is opaque in tis deeds and vent he V military can’t know what Iran is doing, Maduro is on his last legs; a recall referendum next week, or in any case Maduro's days are numbered.   Zarif in: Cuba Nicaragua Ecuador, Bolivia; only Chile is new.  Ahmadinejad made the same visits, always with bags of cash.  Iran has embassies in these, and also in Colombia (drug trafficking). Russia also has a large presence - mostly in the same countries.  Russia sent tanks. . . . 
While serving as the Director of Institute Relations at the Atlas Economic Research Foundation, Joseph Humire began developing the SFS network by running programs around the world focused on promoting security and defense issues to the classical liberal community.  In 2012, SFS spun-off from Atlas into its new home at the International Freedom Educational Center, where Mr. Humire currently serves as the Executive Director.
As a global security expert specializing in asymmetric warfare, Mr. Humire has produced leading research and investigations on Islamic extremism and Iran’s influence in the Western Hemisphere, as well as other topics. His work is frequently sought after by various entities within the U.S. Department of Defense and intelligence community, as well as prominent think tanks and universities throughout the Americas. Moreover, Mr. Humire is an eight-year veteran of the United States Marine Corps having served combat tours in Iraq and Liberia, as well as taking part in the multinational training exercise in Latin America and the Caribbean: UNITAS 45-04.
Hour Three
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 3, Block A: Dr Shahriar Ahy,
Iran harasses US naval warships ; a real war within Iran between two groups: one wants an opening to the West and improved economic situation with a moderate reduction in oppression. The other sees its lease on power depends on tension with the West, where  a reduction in tension would reduce their power, and they prefer relations with Russia  Radicalization of the atmosphere helps them; also the Revolutionary Guards undercut Rouhani's efforts.   Does Iran seems to be ripe for implosion or revolution?  There’s a tremendous imbalance between the populace and he ruling elite. You know a correction is coming but can't predict when or how. The gap between the people and the regime is increasing. As the younger generation becomes more important in political calculations, it wants a larger role in the nation’s life. Currently, this is not a viable regime.  Will there be a cascading of protests that join workers’s movements (which already have limited strikes daily all over the country) and a gradual sense of desperation within the regime – which is increasingly incapable of addressing societal problems – and this may make the regime give way?  The emperor has no clothes – the disintegration could happen rapidly.  Shall we expect disintegration, chaos and disorder, or a more orderly transition? No one knows.   Is the IRGC strong enough to take over?  They plan to, esp if Khamenei dies, or a precipitate change occurs in front of their eyes; but they probably won’t succeed in a coup to take  all levers of power - those that can normally choose their own leaders (Pakistan, Chile, Egypt); but this is more like the Turkish military of today, where more and more military leaders are hand-picked by someone  outside the armed forces, so when he goes there’s no unity of command. Today, IRCG members don’t respect each other; if the Supreme Leader goes, then disunity will surface.  There are three different cultures within the IRGC:  merchants (that is, the IRGC controls so much of the economy that the quartermasters, in effect, have become a merchant class); some like the military aspect above all (training courses, advanced studies, the IRGC as a military meritocracy: and a radical group, less educated (Basiji, Quds Force, unruly fellows).  Worldwide, regular forces most dislike irregular forces.  It’d be easier to let the implosion happen, then, after chaos, take over.  That would be parallel to Egypt.   The hardest political art is controlled implosion. Compare the USSR.  . . . And the timeline in an implosion?  Very difficult to see how Iran as it is could last as much as five years; but within that, can’t predict – it’d be like predicting the market (which also is due for a major correction).
Shahriar Ahy is an MIT-educated Iranian politician and opposition figure. In the months before the 1979 Iranian revolution, he was an informal liaison between the Shah and the White House; after the Shah died in exile in 1980, Ahy remained close to his son, Reza Pahlavi. In early 2004, Ahy, who had been running a multinational media company from Saudi Arabia, left his job to work as Pahlavi's political strategist. Ahy remains an outspoken liberal democratic voice of the opposition and an expert on media management.
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 3, Block B:  Dr Boaz Ganor, World Summit on Counterterrorism; in re: IS has a training camp in Sinai.  More of a threat than Hamas?  Prepapring for eek of Sept 11 conf of a thousand peple. One issue: the theatres of jihad.  IS is dvpg more threate of jihad; common denominator: areas of limited govtl control, no-man's lands. Yes, a growing threat to Gen el Sisi and to Israel, but not yet to Hamas. However, Hams is making a strategic mistake innot recognizing this threat; like Arafat, who tried to ride a tiger and failed, Hamas is also trying, but in a decade we'll see that ISIS is eating Hamas alive. Recruitment: how and of whom? Start w Muslim communities n Europe:   youngsters, mainly aimed at second- and third-gen Muslim immigrants to Europe, who are much more frustrated than were or are their parents.  For elders, getting European citizenship was the biggest achievement of their lives; whereas their offspring blame the state and their own parents; are deeply frustrated.  This is used by terrorist orgs, via social networks. "Forget about France and Spain; you’re part of a much greater group, the ummah. You need to regain Islam's glory n Andalusia.   I beleieve that Abu Mazen and Hamas do not see eye to eye and Abu Mazen is calculating leaving Pal olitics, plus internal politics.  
Boaz is hosting a World Summit on Counter Terrorism in Israel shortly and would like to discuss it briefly. (see program below)
Prof. Boaz Ganor is the Dean and the Ronald Lauder Chair for Counter-Terrorism at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy, as well as the Founder and Executive Director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT), at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya, Israel. Prof. Ganor serves as the Founding President of the International Academic Counter-Terrorism Community (ICTAC), an international association of academic institutions, experts, and researchers in fields related to the study of terrorism and counter-terrorism.   
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 3, Block C: Liz Peek, Fiscal Times and Fox; in re: Clinton Foundation.  For the first five years of the Obama presidency, and for the first time since the office was instituted during the Eisenhower years, there was no Inspector General for the State Department. During Clinton’s stint, the White House failed to nominate someone to occupy that office. Instead, State Department oversight was led by an “acting” Inspector General, Harold Geiser.  . . . 
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 3, Block D: Noah Rothman, Commentary online editor, in re: Alt right.
Hour Four
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 4, Block A: Larry Kotlikoff, Laurence Kotlikoff for President (; in re:  Prof Kotlikoff’s policies would fundamentally reform taxes, Social Security, banking, healthcare, climate policy, and educational policy. Kotlikoff also has strong views on foreign policy that differ from those of Trump and Clinton.
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 4, Block B: : Larry Kotlikoff, Laurence Kotlikoff for President (; in re:  Campaign policies.
..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Fyi, a recent mailing:   There are only six candidates who are able to be elected president. Of those, only Laurence Kotlikoff is truly dedicated to our children's future. Share his message.
Election day is still months away and everything remains on the table -- except, that is, becoming legally able to win the presidency.  There are strict, state-specific deadlines for a) appearing on ballots or b) becoming a registered write-in candidate who the voter can place on the ballot by writing in his or her name and position for which he or she is running. In the case of write-in candidates, if you aren't registered in states requiring registration, the votes of those who write you in simply won't be counted. There are only six candidates who, given today's date and yesterday's deadlines, are able to be elected president. Of those, only one is truly dedicated to our children's future -- dedicated enough to honestly explain our grave national problems and propose the often radical solutions needed to solve them.  Please read Kotlikoff’s most recent article on this issue:
Also, please spread Kotlikoff's message by sharing this e-mail with as many friends, relatives, and colleagues as you can. We all want our children to live in a great America. To do this, we need to write Laurence Kotlikoff for President and Edward Leamer for Vice President on November 8th. If you share this with all your contacts, and they do the same, Kotlikoff, who is already extremely well known, will become the leading candidate for President for one simple reason -- the public will do their homework and realize he is the most qualified to serve as President.
 ..  ..  ..  
The article follows.
August 19, 2016  Written by Laurence Kotlikoff
I was recently interviewed by the Wall Street Journal, which suggested that 1,800 people are running for President as write-in candidates. What the reporter didn’t realize is that unless you are officially registered in the very large number of states that require write-in candidate registration, your write-in votes will not be counted. In short, Mickey Mouse is not running for President.
By my reckoning, I’m the only write-in candidate who is engaging in the extremely arduous and expensive task of becoming a registered write-in candidate in all the states in which this is possible. These states represent roughly 90 percent of the electors in the electoral college. I may have this wrong. But my campaign has been in touch with election commissions in states around the country and this is the very strong impression we’ve received.
Assuming I’ve got this right, there are only six people who can actually be elected President on November 8th.
They are:
Laurence Kotlikoff
Evan McMullin
Gary Johnson
Jill Stein
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
One of these six appears mentally ill.  One is mistrusted and disliked by a majority of Americans for a long list of excellent reasons. One believes we don’t need government. One believes we don’t need the private sector. One has sound bites for policy positions. He also says he’ll be on the ballot, but he’s too late to make the ballot in 27 states.
The one at the top is an economist. He’s pretty well known. He’s been ranked among the 25 most influential economists in the world  according to The Economist Magazine. He’s also a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a NY Times best selling author. He’s written books on banking, healthcare, Social Security, and taxes. He’s spent years studying the determinants of economic growth. He’s advised governments around the world. He has a small personal financial planning software business in addition to servicing full time as a professor. So he knows a ton about the challenges of small business.
The one at the top spent five months writing a book, which you can download at this site and forward. However, be warned. It’s very scary because it tells you something you haven’t heard — the truth about where our country actually stands.
But the book also offers extremely simple solutions — postcard length — to our problems. The one at the top also makes clear exactly how he’d  deal with national security threats.
It’s your choice.
You can choose someone whom no Republican leader of character will endorse, whose supporters are deserting him in droves and who is dropping in the polls. You can choose someone whom the FBI Director declared “careless with national security” and who is recommending things that will move the country backwards, not forwards. You can support someone who missed the on-the-ballot boat and can’t, therefore, get elected. Or you can vote for someone (by writing, in the spaces provided on your ballot, Laurence Kotlikoff for President and Edward Leamer for Vice President) who makes it a habit of telling you the truth, who understands, as a professional economist, what’s wrong with our country, and knows, as a professional economist, how to fix things.
Do your homework. Read the book. Forward the book. Donate. Join our campaign.
Your future and your children’s future are at stake.
Copyright © 2016 Laurence Kotlikoff for President, All rights reserved.
You are receiving this email because you have indicated interest in electing Laurence Kotlikoff for President in 2016.
Our mailing address is:
Laurence Kotlikoff for President
P.O. Box 801
Chatham, NJ 07928
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 4, Block C: Orianna Pawlyk, Air Force Times, in re: Russians invited to Incirlik?  F-22s scrambled over Syria against Assad. (US asks Russia: Is that you in the skies? We want to avoid a confrontation.  Russia: Nope; not us.)  Turkish, Russian officials downplay reports Russia might operate out of Incirlik air base  ;  U.S. fighter jets protect Hasakah air space after Syrian government airstrikes   ;  Coalition airpower helps drive ISIS out of key city in northern Syria  ;  Russia's 'high-velocity confrontations' present risks for U.S. pilots  ; 
Air Force chief of staff: Russian pilots' behavior still poses risk  ;  Air Force relationships with Turkey a concern in wake of coup attempt   ;  U.S. Air Force refueling missions over Yemen grow by 60 percent  (1 of 2)
Thursday  25 August 2016     / Hour 4, Block D:  Orianna Pawlyk, Air Force Times, in re: Russians invited to Incirlik?  F-22s scrambled over Syria against Assad. (US asks Russia: Is that you in the skies? We want to avoid a confrontation.  Russia: Nope; not us.) (2 of 2)
..  ..  ..