Photo, above: Ariel Sharon at his beloved Sycamore Ranch in the Negev (Photo: Yossi Rot)

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.

Hour One

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Susanne Craig, NYT, in re:  . . .  today DeBlasio removed a thousand seats for poor children in Brooklyn schools

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 1, Block B:  Edward W Hayes, criminal defense attorney par excellence, in re: In Crown Heights, Brooklyn, New York, a fare-beater on a city bus was stopped by two rookie cops; in the chase, the fare-beater turned and shot Ofr Lee three times (he's recovering in hospital).  Was that fact that a young man was carrying a .45 in any way due to the diminution of stop, question and frisk?  He'd been arrested six times, had an outstanding warrant for him in Pennsylvania. Trade-off: do you want more freedom or more protection? If you don’t want stop and frisk, you're under a lot more risk.

What happened to Stop and Frisk? Police Officer Is Shot in Legs in Brooklyn  Officer James Li, 26, was injured in Crown Heights on Wednesday after removing a man who had boarded a bus through a back door without paying, the police said.

Why  exactly are they persecuting this unhappy famous woman? EH: I like her lawyer a lot, but if I were on the jury she'd be guilty.   Kerry Kennedy Hits Back as Prosecutors Question Story Line at Trial  Ms. Kennedy took the stand on the third day of a trial in which she is charged with driving under the influence of a sleeping pill.

People's Republic of NYC votes us money! New York City Council Swiftly Passes Bill to Extend Paid Sick Days  The more emphatically liberal Council expanded the law to require businesses with five or more employees to provide up to five paid days off a year

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: John Roskam, executive director, Institute of Public Affairs,
Australia, in re: Crocodiles swimming offshore in the ocean as swimmers stroll along the beach.  Typical more in the Outback or northern Australia.  Big issue now is shark-culling: govt will start shooting sharks - the main outcry in western Australia: "The sharks got here first."

Australians now understanding that their wages are relatively high and productivity relatively low. Major car mfrs pulling out. Qantas, with a big deficit, is asking for a lot of funding.  Big shift in public sentiment recently: do not bail out car companies – our cars are fairly high-priced; and Tony Abbot points out, if you bail out a car co., why not all companies?  How abut Abdul the Kebab Shop doesn’t go to Canberra to ask for a bail-out; why should big, rich companies? Tony Abbott's honeymoon with the press has lasted about ten minutes: he's never been personally popular. Also, a govt alliance with the Greens – Tasmania has Greens officially in power with Labor, but with an election coming up here the Greens are expected to lose a big percentage.  Was Abbott elected to  be a Reagan-like personality, has turned out to be the opposite?  No; if he had a [strong] ecnomc policy, his ratings would go up.  Most Australians are sick of their politicis.  Next: PLA navy sailed to Indonesia and back in an aggressive show in the South China Sea.  The region is anxious.  An active debate in Australia. Our Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop, spoke of China as our ally – but it's seen as a trading partner, not democratic.  However, some of the public want to [bend slightly to China].  The values of the Chinese govt are not shared by most Australians. Abbott speaking of increasing our defense budget.  Also note relations with India – an Anglophone democracy.  A "short, sharp war" as prognosticated by China about its intended war with Japan: Australia would not jump right in to defend Japan. 

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 1, Block D:  Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics and author,  The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs - and Who Will Take It; in re: Monte Carlo technique.

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. . .  Monte Carlo techniques are varied, but at their root they involve generating a large number of random values within prescribed limits so we can assess the likelihood of a given outcome.  For example, imagine a hypothetical situation where Democrats controlled a 50-50 Senate. Let’s also say that two Democratic incumbents were polling at 52 percent in polls with error margins of +/- five percentage points.

We want to know how often, statistically, the Democrats might be expected to win both seats and keep the Senate. Most contemporary analysts would approach this from one of two directions.  Some analysts might note that Democrats led in both races, and should therefore feel extremely good about their chances.  Others would note the error margins, label them both “coin tosses,” and call the battle for the Senate a tossup.

In fact, under these conditions Democrats would be solid, but not overwhelmingly solid, favorites to hold the upper chamber. Now, there is a mathematical way to answer this with precision, but it is complex and cumbersome, especially if there are 20 races to evaluate rather than two or if we need to simulate 10 variables instead of one. What we can do instead is to ask our program to produce random draws, centered on the two midpoints, with standard deviations that approximate half the error margins.

We then ask the program to generate some large number of draws, in this case 20,000. They will be centered around a mean of 52 percent for each Democrat, and 95 percent of the results will be within five points of that mean.

Democrats actually do well in each individual race: They win each one about 79 percent of the time. With that said, they only win both races 62 percent of the time.  So even though both polls are technically “within the error margin,” Democrats should still be clear favorites to retain the Senate, although they should not be considered overwhelming favorites.

Notably, if we had three races with incumbents at 52 percent, we really would have a tossup Senate, with Democrats keeping it about 49 percent of the time. This is important: Even though each individual senator would be a 79 percent favorite to keep his or her seat, the odds would be slightly against the Democrats holding the chamber under these circumstances.

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If this approach sounds familiar, it should.  It is basically the one popularized by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, although his models are substantially more complex.  And indeed, there are a number of complexities you’d want to build into an important model.  [more]

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Dems need six aces to win, according to polling. A 96.4% chance that the Democrat is ahead in Arkansas, for example.  The 2014 election is a set-up for the '16 election – but . . .    If GOP picks up only six seats in '14 almost surely will lose 2016. 

How Likely Are Democrats to Lose the Senate?  A few weeks ago, I produced two Senate analyses. One focussed on the relationship between the president's job approval, the fate of Senate Democrats during the 2010 and 2012.

Hour Two

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Michael Eisenstadt , senior Fellow, Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program, in re: Iran. Kerry plan. Netanyahu to Washington, also Abbas to Washington.  Jordan River Valley is the gateway to the West Bank, which is right adjacent to the major population centers of Israel and at one point only nine miles wide.  Absent good security, easy for violent groups to send rocket out of West bank t hit every populated part of Israel. Major tunnel problem out of Gaza – amount of arms taken in to Gaza also increased hugely. Neither Israel nor Jordan can afford to have that occur in the West Bank.  In the past, Israel was worried abt conventional threats (major nations invading, for example); now, it’s extremist groups.   . . .  Close security cooperation with Jordan over many years, and a certain amount with the PA.  US wants an international force to patrol the Jordan River Valley – egad!  The UN?  Not as motivated, professional or as knowledgable as their own forces; also, political will; also, were the troops to be under NATO, potential for yet more problems, as occurred in Lebanon, for example.  Further, terrorist gr0us setting up behind outside forces would be moderately likely.  Any cooperation 'twixt Palestinain Authority security and Israel – rather good, at present – needs to last for many years, even if there are major changes in the Arab dramatis personae.

Clarifying the Security Arrangements Debate: Israeli Forces in the Jordan Valley  U.S., Israeli, and Palestinian negotiations could lower the heat and shed some light on the clash over Jordan Valley security arrangements by promoting a public debate grounded in the facts of current and prospective Israeli deployments.

As U.S. diplomats work to reach "an agreed framework" for future Israeli-Palestinian negotiations before the April expiration of current talks, security arrangements along the Jordan River have emerged as a key sticking point. Both parties have drawn lines in the sand about their respective positions, injecting passion and emotion into an agenda item that -- unlike the issues of Jerusalem and refugees -- was expected to be resolved through technical discussions among professional military experts.

PRINCIPLED POSITIONS   So far, each side is holding to a position based on principle. For the Israelis, the principle is that the Jordan River must, for a lengthy period, remain their eastern security border. This means maintaining an Israeli military presence that not only guards against terrorist infiltration and weapons smuggling, but that could also provide the basis for a first line of defense against threats that may someday emerge east of the river. While Israel welcomes cooperative security arrangements with Jordan and the Palestinians in this effort, it looks around at the ineffectual third-party forces on its other borders -- especially the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan Heights, and the UN Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), which still operates in Jerusalem six decades after its creation -- and rejects the idea that international forces, even from NATO, could replace its own troops. Israel also wants the term of its military presence along the river defined by certain criteria, not limited by a "date certain" that would be determined without regard to existing strategic realities.

For the Palestinians, the principle is that the independence and sovereignty of their future state require the removal of all vestiges of Israel's military occupation. Palestinian Authority leaders say . . . [more]

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: David S. Cohen, Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Treasury Dept, in re:  IAEA report might have revealed Iran's nuclear research last November; withheld it to accommodate then-negotiations?    Washington has no information to confirm that report.   Iran's oil exports increasing, stock mkt up – but not as good in six months?    True: limited sanction relief worth about $6 – 7 billion to Iran – sounds like a lot, but compare to $30 bil it'll be unable to sell; compare to the $100 bil Iran has in frozen asst around the world  - the sanctions relief in this joint plan won’t help it out of the deep economic hole the sanctions have put it in.  Mistake t look at it in a very short time frame; need to consider six months.  Also, psychological breakthrough?  Planeloads of Germans and other businessmen flying into Teheran. Can this be reversed?  Need to separate Iranian happy-talk: it’s still extraordinarily difficult to do bz with Iran.  Gold trading?  Sanctions o=we’ve had on gold forbid govt or people of Iran to buy gold. Under joint sanctions, can purchase gold but not with the $100 bil that's frozen. 

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Michael Rubin is a former Pentagon official and author, Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engagement, in re: a half-century of U.S. diplomacy with rogue regimes and terrorist groups.  Don’t abide by normal national conduct, often engage in errorist behavior.  Often good to talk, but has to be done correctly. Also, "Track 2" – people-to-people – can be detrimental. Imagine: nonofficials from Syria and US meet informally to have plausible deniability. Sort of diplomacy without diplomats.  In fact, no distinction.  M Khotami in Iran 15 years ago, "Dialogue among Nations": US gave out 15,000 visas but Iran gave on [150??]  With Arafat, also North Korea, would often misconstrue discussions results, argue tat concessions had been made then fight for them publicly.  It’s as though Assad was somehow critical in resolving he Syrian civil war.  One of he costs of nonofficial talks is that they legitim9ze the regime. Also, human rights often become the first casualty. In Iran, public execution rates have skyrocketed along with outreach.   One the diplomatic process begins, democracies are willing to ignore atrocities.  Essential to talk with the guys calling the shots – in Syria, the Iranian IRGC is calling the shots.  Recall Pres Clinton, who went to sign a document only to find that Yassir Arafat wouldn’t .   Ouch.  See how high-profile talks politicize intelligence.  Usually: twisting of intell to downplay how poorly an adversary is behaving; when we whitewash our opponents, that does not work out. The way we conduct dipl oftimes is wrong.   Obama and Clinton ask, "If you don't talk with your enemies, whom will you talk to? Recall Reagan" – but that ignores the fact that Reagan first built up NATO n Europe massively, leading to different negotiations with Gorbachov. 

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Gilad Sharon, Negev, in re: Our ranch in the Negev near S'derot, also near Gaza so a lot of rockets come in. Ride horses (sometimes jeeps) around the ranch – cattle, sheep, horses.  One week intensive mourning, then 30 days; then eleven months of prayer three times a day.  Came to New York for a memorial service yesterday.  Father returned to ranch every night – likes the open air, smell of hay, vistas of wild animals, flowers, orchards blooming in a cloud of perfume. Had a very strong relationship with Pres Bush: visited thirteen times in part because of shared values. Ariel Sharon started Kadima Party because: parties are a tool to do what must be done; here disengagement from Gaza.  Had more rockets in 2004 before disengagement; had to move either  a small number of Israelis or a vast number of Palestinians. 

Hour Three

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:  Prince Bandar reportedly has lost his Syrian dossier.  Saudi royal family shake-ups. Bandar replaced by Prince Naif  - MBN in Washington; likely a future king.  Syria incl fighters from all over, incl 700 from France; also many many  in Sinai. Expect major push by Egyptian generals, as Egypt is also in jihadis' crosshairs. Weapons from Libya, Sudan, and elsewhere.  Commander of northern Israel: stand on Golan Heights and watch the fighting as it moves ever closer to the border.  Apparently someone knocked out Hezbollah missile-launchers.  Lebanese living in the south are obliged to build a living room, dining room and missile from for Hezbollah.  Kerry Plan: indistinct; a longstanding intent to knit the Palestinian Authority an Israel. Bibi due in DC to see Pres Obama on 3 March. Will address AIPAC on Tuesday. Abbas called Kerry proposals "insane" and stormed off.  Germans' openly trading with Iran.  Italy sees Iran as the major problem, to be solved before any Israeli problems. Realistic and refreshing from the new PM.   Reuters: IAEA suppressed a tough report on Iran last autumn to accommodate Iran?  True.

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 3, Block B: IDF Lt.-Col. (ret.) Michael (Mickey) Segall, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and the Terrogence Company; in re: Reuters: IAEA suppressed a tough report on Iran last autumn to accommodate Iran.  Ongoing IAEA behavior to hide information on Iran's progress in nuclear development.   German, Russian, French companies rush t Iran to sign business contracts; much cheered the regime, but Iranian people queue in the streets for emergency food packages – economy on the ground in s not improving  Rouhani is doing PR.  As for Iranian battle group sailing toward US waters: trying to create some sort of symmetry with the US.  Saudi Prince Bandar, former intelligence chief, has been moved aside from his Syrian dossier, younger Prince Naif has acquired it.  Syria is a proxy battleground between Iran and Saudi; just now, Iran has he upper hand, but Sunni oppo is weak.  Saudis had a chance after Hariri was assassinated, but Iranian policy is solid and of long duration, unlike the [relatively fickle ]Saudis.  Iranian people are infuriated at financial support by Iran of Hezbollah and Syria – "We’re starving" – but so far the regime isn’t obeying. 

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Mary Anastasia O'Grady, Wall Street Journal, in re: Unrest in Venezuela Spawns a Folk Hero.     Venezuela Leader Fights Unrest with Fiesta  President Maduro extends Carnival celebration by adding work days off after opposition leaders call for mourning and more protests. 

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Ashlee Vance, Bloomberg Businessweek, in re: Weeping over Willow Garage.   Over the last decade, an influential robotics research lab called Willow Garage invented a wide range of prototypes and tools, most notably an open-source software now used by every major player in the field. A reclusive early Google backer founded and bankrolled the outfit, but a few months ago he pulled the plug. 

Hour Four

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Like Dreamers: The Story of the Israeli Paratroopers Who Reunited Jerusalem and Divided a Nation by Yossi Klein Halevi (1 of 4)

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Like Dreamers: The Story of the Israeli Paratroopers Who Reunited Jerusalem and Divided a Nation by Yossi Klein Halevi (2 of 4)

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Like Dreamers: The Story of the Israeli Paratroopers Who Reunited Jerusalem and Divided a Nation by Yossi Klein Halevi (3 of 4)

Thursday  27 February 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Like Dreamers: The Story of the Israeli Paratroopers Who Reunited Jerusalem and Divided a Nation by Yossi Klein Halevi (4 of 4)

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Music

Hour 1:  Miami Vice. Sin City. Mad Max. Inception. 

Hour 2:  Dark Shadows. Immortals. 

Hour 3:  Eastern Promises. Zorro. 

Hour 4:  Defiance.