Photo, left:  The NYPD ramped up security around New York City following deadly explosions.  The newly-formed Critical Response Group and the Strategic Response Group were deployed in full force at major transit hubs around the city, doubling the number of police for the morning rush hour.  Screen shot from a March 2016 picture with thanks to the New York Post.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
 
Hour One
Thursday  29 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: David Davenport, Hoover Institution &Stanford, in re: post-debate analyses.  Trump was on more comfortable ground n economics; more so than Hillary on trade. She first said TTP was the gold standard before she was against it.  He does best when he quickly deflected criticism and moves on. Needs to revert to slash-jab-dance boxing. Trump is from Mars and Clinton is from Venus.   HRC: “I have a plan to defeat ISIS.”   DJT: “Why haven’t you done it?” Body language, attitude, demeanor – all are important.  It’s one thing how you come off with Lester Holt; it's another how you come off with normal people.  . . .  His apparently obsessive reaction to perceived slights seems to be part of his actual strategy.  I think his debates  are about reaching undecided voters: undecided because they dislike both candidates; he needs to convince the 15% or 20% to vote for him.  Trekkies have issued an open letter against Trump. 
Thursday  29 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Ed Hayes, criminal defense attorney, in re:  Murders in New York are up 11%.  Amazingly, Black Lives Matter have killed more people than the police.  They stopped Stop/Question/Frisk, which was a seriously effective method; and the killings are not in my neighborhood, they’re in Black neighborhoods.  The moderator said, “Stop and frisk is unconstitutional” – which it patently is not.  It deterred people from carrying guns in the street. New York Democrats oppose stop & frisk.  I thought Trump was the world’s worst-prepared guy; didn’t explain NAFTA or anything; he should have eaten her alive by quoting statistics but he did nothing. . . . How many people have been shot in Chicago this year?  The guy in Ferguson punched the cop in the face; police had a right to shoot.
Thursday  29 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block C:   Steve Herman, VOA chief diplomatic correspondent, in re:  Steve Herman spent 26 years overseas for Voice of America; has been stationed in Bangkok, Tokyo, everywhere. Now he’s VOA chief diplomatic correspondent in Washington. 
Tokyo watched the debate, hung on every word; esp on matters of security.  Need constant reassurances; which this campaign has been anything but. Most Japanese, esp Abe, want things ot stay as they are – under the U S nuclear umbrella. Trump has been extremely unsettling – Japan go nuclear, and pay for the bases. They already contribute $4 bil.
Seoul: Mrs Clinton surely reassured South Korea.
Thailand:  not a democracy this year but historically had good relations with US.  The recent army coup is focussed on the king’s failing health – his passing will be a watershed for the country. Coup timing was to have a very secure govt in place for the monarchy.
Vietnam is a TPP signatory; if it doesn’t pass, the n China will fill the vacuum.
Pyongyang:  always paranoid at best about US intentions; wd be much concerned about a Trump presidency; they've played the US very well over the years and taken advantage diplomatically to preserve their totalitarian system.  Trump is too unpredictable and much scarier. 
. . . Japan on its own wd drive Japan to Japan isolate would be a security nightmare. We want Japan under US nuclear umbrella. Cancelling TPP would redound enormously to China’s benefit.
. . . Yes, Japanese will watch very moment of the coming debates; and foreign ministries in the region are working overtime. Can only imagine the daily reports submitted to Ministers on what the candidates said the previous day.
Asia Watches the Presidential Debates, including TPP, and South China Sea, and nuclear weapons, and North Korea, and the recent request from Burma to lift sanctions.
Thursday  29 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  J. W. Verret, Senior Affiliated Scholar & Asst Professor, George Mason University School of Law; in re:  Consumer Financial Protection Board/CFPB: a protector of the American chump.  Recently, American chumps fell victim to Wells Fargo – shameful and denounced – the story is CFPB crashing in afterwards and claiming credit. In 2013, complaints bot this go to CFPB, which does nothing.  But LA Times gets the story, prints it, and the LA attorney brigs an action.  Finally, they settle the action, and the LCC jumps in to help negotiate a $3 million settlement. Three years later, CFPB says, I did it and will charge you more: $105 million. Where does that money go?  To make victims whole?  How much damage was incurred? About $2 million.    CFPB has a secret slush fund for “financial literacy” – to send funding to liberal interest groups. CFBC can be fired only for extremely gross incompetent; funding comes from the Federal Reserve, and the CFPB sets its own funding levels.  CFPB pursuing :unintentional racism.”
Wells manipulation of account holders by creating false accounts is reprehensible.  The only thing more reprehensible has been how Democrats in Congress have used this controversy to praise the CFPB, which missed the boat on this scandal, came late to the table once the LA Attorney and OCC resolved the matter, and levied a big fine unconnected to the losses caused, and claimed the credit.  I gotta give the CFPB credit here for having nine lives, and surviving what should really be a political scandal about how they ignored warnings about fake accounts at Wells for the last 3 years.
J. W. Verret is a senior scholar at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.  From May of 2013 through April of 2015, Verret was on leave to serve as chief economist at House Financial Services Committee. Verret rejoined the Mercatus Center in May of 2015.
 
Hour Two
Thursday  29 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Ray Kelly, Vice Chairman of K2 Intelligence &former NYC Police Commissioner; author, Vigilance: My Life Serving America and Protecting Its Empire City; in re:  New York City bombings.  . . .  and New York has spent more money on protection than any other city, so it's pretty safe.  Mosul will be a danger for a long time to come.  . . .  The Counterterrorism Task Force had a massive deployment here at Penn Station; enormous people in armor with long guns, who chatted courteously with New Yorkers and tourists.  Well done!  Also great police security for religious minorities.  . .  We’ve had police in Jerusalem, which has given us an excellently granular understanding.  Yes, extra assignments to houses of worship.
·         http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-new-york-bomber-was-not-a-lone-wolf
·         http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/homegrown-attacks-an-increasing-threat-homeland-security-secretary-jeh-johnson-says
·         http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/other/SteinbachStatement20160921-ForDownload.pdf
Thursday  29 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Simon Henderson, Washington Institute; in re: Iran vs Saudi Arabia vs Iran.  Saudis agree to lower pumping and let Iran hold a higher  number.   Saudis announces that Cabinet ministers would have salaries cut by 20%; ad those who work for govt (half the population) face a wages freeze .
Trump suggested that the Saudis get their own weapons . . .  Saudis feel quite let down by e US an cannot rely on the US security umbrella. Japanese and South Korean angles are easier to comprehend: they’re tying to cope with North Korea  since the US seems feckless abt DPRK missile tests.   Saudis and Iranians shoot from the hip with insults. Escalate.  In the Persian Gulf,, IRGC boats approach to co close and unsafely to ships. Could easily generate a shooting war.
This thousand-year feud ‘twixt Riyadh and Teheran.
·         http://foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-nuclear-deal-fuels-saudi-iran-rivalry
·         http://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-reaches-understanding-on-output-cut-1475089079?mod=trending_now_4
·         http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37502538
·         http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/jordans-strategic-decision-to-buy-israeli-gas
Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf. A former journalist with Financial Times, Mr. Henderson has also worked as a consultant advising corporations and governments on the Persian Gulf. He became an associate of the Institute in 1999 and joined the staff in 2006. He started his career with the British Broadcasting Corporation before joining the Financial Times. His experience includes serving as a foreign correspondent in Pakistan in 1977-78, and reported from Iran during the 1979 Islamic revolution and seizure of the U.S. embassy.
Thursday  29 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Tony Badran, FDD, in re:  Syria. Aleppo under attack by Hezbollah, Iranian, Shia mercenaries; a tragedy.  The battle space is fog of war.  I hear that the Russians have decided to drive out rebels by winter to divide the spoils in the spring.
Rumor htat Russian militias are also on the ground. Now that they besiege the city, and no serious protection from the US; want to mop it up while Obama is till in office. They tried before and met resistance, but now have more firepower, But Turkish-Saudi-Qataris side will not just lie dow and take it – assuming the US doesn't block it as it has done for five years
Turkish help let the rebels break the siege briefly; stil have fronts in Idlib Province to the Wet, and Hama Province.  Turks have pushed into NE Aleppo Province against ISIS [against Kurd? –editor];  complete passivity if not complicity in this by the Obama Administration. This administraton will do zilch meaningful before he leaves office.  He recognizes “Iranian equities in Syria” and Russian interests there. Tied to the Iran deal. 
Resistance on the Golan Heights: a result of the ill-advised US decision to work wth Russia in Syria. 
US with Russia bomb al Nusrah – the former al Qaeda group in Sria y– Iran immediately lau  Used S200 against he US. Associated Nursah with the US.  . . .  If Rusians go down to Golan, tourble; but unlikely.  Israel says that any Hezbollah or IRGC who shows up ion the Golan will be killed Jordan: sice last  year;s Russian intrusion, have frozen all ops in the south over which they have conril.  MOC (joint mil centr of US-Jordan) has been frozen.  Part of he deal hta Jordanian king had wth Russians. Result:  Iran has consolidated it s grip around Damascus, with ethnic cleansing. Relate s to the Golan: as soon as you shut down ops in the south, regie can focus in Aleppo, and the Quneitra and other places.  US policies have been pro-regime and pro-Iranian.
·         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/badran-tony-obamas-syria-policy-striptease/
·         http://www.wsj.com/articles/john-kerry-threatens-to-suspend-talks-with-russia-on-syria-1475076471
Tony Badran is a research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where he focuses on Lebanon, Hezbollah, Syria, and the geopolitics of the Levant.
Born and raised in Lebanon, Tony has testified to the House of Representatives on several occasions regarding U.S. policy toward Iran and Syria. His writings have appeared in publications including The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, and The Weekly Standard, and he is a regular contributor to Tablet and a columnist for NOW.
Thursday  29 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:   The Supreme Leader has designate a successor: Ibrahim Raisi, from Mashhad, 56 yrs old, an enforcer (i.e., muscle). The IRGC wanted  - he’s very reactionary, oversaw the massacres of thousands of political prisoners, has a predilection for violence.  He disciplined mullahs who strayed from the line, also ran a $15 bil ”charitable” foundation, funding Hezbollah.  Expect a brutal suppression of the Iranian people when he comes to power.
Rouhani and Zarif are used as covers: called “moderate,” which they surely are not. IRGC fears anyone more moderate who might initiate changes. 
Funeral of Shimon Pares; many world leaders; Hollande, Merkel, Trudeau, Clinton, delegations from Finland, Estonia, everywhere. Remarkable regard in which Peres was held. Visionary – pushed nanotechnology, et al. – and sophisticated; a man of war when needed, but otherwise a man of peace. Abbas will attend is being pushed by Arab leaders to accept the invitation to speak to the Knesset.
Indiana Hoenlein: there was found in northern Israel, at the Lachesh Gate Shrine, King Hezekiah’s work to do away with cultic practices; he had installed a toilet which in fact was described in the Bible; said not to be used but constructed as a  symbol of desecration of cultic practices.  Archaeologists and the public are excited because everything found is exactly as described in the Bible.
 
Hour Three
Thursday  29 September 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Dan Henninger, WSJ, in re: The Trump Mosh Pit.  Only one of Monday’s debaters is still in sync with the country’s restless mood.
It’s past time that we all come to grips with the reality that the Trump candidacy has been carried forward to this unlikely moment by forces in the American population that transcend normal presidential politics. These are essentially the same forces that carried the equally improbable Bernie Sanders to 22 primary victories.
I’ve always found the Sanders phenomenon more interesting, because unlike the well-known reality TV host and brand manager, Sen. Sanders was a 74-year-old Vermont socialist with zero visibility. That this nobody contended with a woman whose political immensity scared off a sitting vice president means that some deep currents are roiling the American electorate.
An agog media class—I was certainly agog—has identified that “something” as anger, frustration, white rage or PC backlash. Call it whatever you want. It’s real, and I don’t think Monday night’s debate killed it. Which is why I don’t think Donald Trump “lost” the debate.
This week’s media meme—that Hillary Clinton wiped the floor with Mr. Trump—is undervaluing the realities of this unusual election.
We have been through this exercise so many times with Donald Trump. When in July last year he said of Sen. John McCain, “He’s not a war hero,” I, like others, thought, he’s done. You cannot run for president and say an American military man who was tortured in a North Vietnam prison camp is no hero. Everyone, including the umpteen GOP candidates, thought Mr. Trump’s early primary surge would collapse.
Of course the Trump contraption rattled forward, surviving one awful gaffe after another. The meme then (as now) was that the Trump supporters were basically idiots—now known as the deplorables. Well, it’s also true that you can pay a king’s ransom to watch the New York Yankees from the box seats with normal people or a lot less to sit in the upper deck with guys who will F-bomb your kids for nine innings. They’re all cheering for the same team. Welcome to America. Welcome to the Trump mosh pit.
Let us turn, then, to who said what in the debate for some understanding of the Trump paradox: How can a candidate get this far by seeming to say so little that we normally expect of a president?
The word “sound bite,” a term of usage originating in television, is now viewed with derision. Except for one thing: Sound bites work. They convey one idea and stick that idea in the mind. Recite, please, one memorable thing Hillary Clinton said in more than 90 minutes. OK, “trumped-up trickle down.” Her debate was well-constructed, but so is a paint-by-numbers picture.
At one point, Mrs. Clinton was talking about “investing in the middle class,” and “making college debt-free” and “broad-based inclusive growth.”
Trump: “Typical politician. All talk, no action. Sounds good, doesn’t work. Never going to happen. Our country is suffering because people like Secretary Clinton have made such bad decisions in terms of our jobs and in terms of what’s going on.”
Without question much of the Trump side of the debate was a discontinuous morass. But Donald Trump oozes contempt for the status quo. That visceral disdain offsets a lot of missteps and whatever Hillary’s fact-check drones are putting up on her website.
There was an exchange on urban violence. Mrs. Clinton said, “We have to restore trust. We have to work with the police” and “we have to tackle the plague of gun violence.” Who could disagree?
Donald Trump. “Secretary Clinton doesn’t want to use a couple of words. And that’s law and order. We need law and order. If we don’t have it, we’re not going to have a country.”
One of these two is catching the mood of the country, and the other just isn’t.
Are we demeaning a presidential election by saying it is reducible to sound bites? I once thought so. Until it became clear that Donald Trump, like Bernie Sanders, was somehow detecting the complex tectonic shifts inside American politics.
Some of these shifts are disturbing—blue-collar alienation, eroding civil order in some cities—but unlike his always-hedged opponent, Donald Trump slams into them.
This sort of populism is exciting, but often limited.
Bernie went down because he was too one-note. Inequality wasn’t enough. Donald Trump’s one-note is trade, but his overweighting of the issue could sink him. Millions of the suburban voters he needs in battleground states have jobs connected to a strong global trading system. They don’t want to vote for Hillary, but past some point, the “Nafta” rant may prove too much.
So it’s back to the mosh pit. Yankee fans, from the boxes to the bleachers, love their team. But if a guy underperforms or dogs it, they’ll boo him mercilessly. Donald Trump survived Monday night. But one more outing like that, and his phenomenal candidacy could get booed off the field.
Thursday  29 September 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  Tevi Troy, WSJ & author; in re:  America's Next Crisis Manager, By Tevi Troy / Wall Street Journal / September 26, 2016.    As Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump clash on the debate stage Monday night, viewers should consider how each might handle a disaster as president. One of the topics slated for debate is “securing America,” and indeed, terrorism recently struck New York, New Jersey and Min­neapolis. Hurricanes and pan­demics also loom as unpredictable threats in the presidential purview.
The cam­paign has been un­usu­ally focused on ex­actly the char­ac­ter­istics that are es­sen­tial in a time of cri­sis: hon­esty, calm­ness, re­solve. Un­for­tu­nately, the two ma­jor-party can­di­dates are lack­ing in im­por­tant ways. Mrs. Clin­ton’s email scan­dal and re­cent ob­fus­ca­tions about her health un­der­mine her cred­i­bil­ity with the Amer­i­can peo­ple, which is the ba­sis for ef­fec­tive lead­er­ship in a dis­as­ter. With­out it, lead­ers can­not count on get­ting peo­ple to fol­low dif­fi­cult di­rec­tives dur­ing a cri­sis.
In 1976, for ex­am­ple, Pres­i­dent Ger­ald Ford em­barked on an am­bi­tious plan to vac­ci­nate “every man, woman, and child in the United States” against a wor­ri­some strain of swine flu. Ford made sure to be photographed re­ceiv­ing the vac­ci­nation him­self, but most Amer­i­cans did not fol­low suit. Only about a quar­ter of the pop­u­la­tion went along with the pres­i­den­tial di­rec­tive, which was canceled a few months later when the vac­cine was linked to cases of Guil­lain-Barre syn­drome.
Why did so many Amer­i­cans buck Ford’s in­oc­u­la­tion pro­gram? One reason may have been the loss of pres­i­den­tial cred­i­bil­ity fol­low­ing Richard Nixon’s res­ig­na­tion, which pro­pelled Ford into the of­fice. Luck­ily, that swine-flu strain was not as deadly as feared. But if a more vir­u­lent pathogen re­quir­ing mass vac­ci­na­tion were to emerge, would Mrs. Clin­ton or Mr. Trump have trou­ble per­suad­ing most Amer­i­cans to fol­low instructions?
An­other vi­tal as­pect of cri­sis lead­ership is ob­tain­ing the facts be­fore speak­ing and choos­ing words carefully—both ar­eas where Mr. Trump strug­gles. Dur­ing a dis­as­ter words that are in­suf­ficiently mea­sured could cause panic or con­fu­sion. During an­other swine-flu out­break in 2009, Vice Pres­i­dent Joe Biden said on the “To­day” show that he “would tell mem­bers of my fam­ily, and I have, I wouldn’t go any­where in con­fined places now.” It was a care­less statement that threat­ened to drive peo­ple away from air travel and pub­lic transporta­tion. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs had to walk back the re­marks.
In the early stages of a cri­sis, the wis­est ap­proach might be to say noth­ing. Im­me­di­ately af­ter the 9/11 at­tacks, Pres­i­dent George W. Bush was con­fronted with a press corps ea­ger for de­tails on what had oc­curred and what would hap­pen next. But con­flict­ing sto­ries were ram­pant and con­fu­sion still reigned. Press Sec­re­tary Ari Fleis­cher held up a makeshift sign for the pres­i­dent, not vis­i­ble to re­porters, with the words “DON’T SAY ANY­THING YET.”
Sup­port­ers of Mrs. Clin­ton and Mr. Trump might dis­agree with this as­sess­ment of their flaws. They might point out the can­di­dates’ strengths as well. Mr. Trump’s trip to flood-ravaged Lou­isiana in Au­gust showed that he un­der­stands the im­por­tance of mak­ing com­mon cause with those af­fected by a nat­ural dis­as­ter. It was rem­i­nis­cent of his con­duct dur­ing Hur­ri­cane Sandy four years ago, when he opened the atrium of Trump Tower, serv­ing cof­fee and food to storm-weary New York­ers.
Mr. Trump also has shown op­timism in re­spond­ing to dis­as­ters. Af­ter 9/11, he said “we have to re­build in some form that will be just as ma­jes­tic as the World Trade Cen­ter.” In 2010, when the Deep­water Hori­zon oil rig was still spew­ing into the Gulf of Mex­ico, Mr. Trump called the White House to of­fer as­sistance, ac­cord­ing to David Ax­el­rod’s book, “Be­liever.” He writes that Mr. Trump said: “That ad­mi­ral you have down there run­ning this leak op­er­a­tion seems like a nice guy, but he doesn’t know what he’s do­ing. I know how to run big projects. Put me in charge of this thing, and I’ll get that leak shut down and the dam­age re­paired.”
What about Mrs. Clin­ton? As one of New York’s sen­a­tors dur­ing 9/11, she took a tough stance af­ter the at­tack, sound­ing some­what like George W. Bush. “Every na­tion has to be ei­ther with us or against us,” she told Dan Rather. “Those who har­bor ter­ror­ists, or who fi­nance them, are go­ing to pay a price.” She also helped se­cure $11 bil­lion in fed­eral dis­as­ter funds for New York.
In a 2008 cam­paign ad, she coined what has be­come the short­hand cliché for dis­as­ter man­age­ment: “It’s 3 a.m., and your chil­dren are safe and asleep,” the nar­ra­tor said. “But there’s a phone in the White House and it’s ring­ing. . . . Your vote will decide who an­swers that call.” The ad went on to say that Mrs. Clin­ton was tested, that she al­ready knew the world’s lead­ers. It’s also true that she has ex­ten­sive knowl­edge of the federal gov­ernment from her time as first lady, sen­a­tor and sec­re­tary of state. This ex­pe­ri­ence might help her nav­i­gate the bu­reau­cracy in times of trou­ble.
The per­fect dis­as­ter man­ager would have George Wash­ing­ton’s trustworthi­ness, Frank­lin Roosevelt’s or Ronald Rea­gan’s com­mu­ni­ca­tion skills and Abra­ham Lin­coln’s steely re­solve. Amer­i­cans are un­likely to get those things af­ter this elec­tion, but their im­por­tance should not be for­got-ten. Af­ter all, hur­ri­canes and pathogens don’t care which party oc­cu­pies the White House.
Mr. Troy, a former deputy secretary of Health and Human Services, is the author of “Shall We Wake the President? Two Centuries of Disaster Management from the Oval Office,” out this month from Lyons Press.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-next-crisis-manager-1474842419