The John Batchelor Show

Thursday 30 April 2015

Air Date: 
April 30, 2015

Photo, left: NASA probe Messenger exhausts its fuel and is directed to crash on the planet Mercury.
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com.   Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block A:  John Roskam, Executive Director, Institute of Public Affairs, in Melbourne, Australia, in re: The Bali Nine, arrested in Indonesia for alleged drug-smuggling; executed yesterday. Australian ambassador to Jakarta withdrawn; street protests all over the country. Australians gave Indonesia a billion dollars' worth of aid after the tsunami.  Appropriate that Australia, France and Italy have protested; at the same time, those executed appear to have broken the law in a c0untry that has capital punishment.  The Indonesian invasion of East Timor n 1975, and Australia's role in its independence; various uprisings; a long history.  Indonesia is a way-station for refugees to Australia. Kevin Rudd said while he opposes capital punishment, but when there are terrorist attacks against Australians in Bali, hard to  oppose capital punishment then.
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block B:  Edward W Hayes, criminal defense attorney par excellence, in re:  Baltimore tragedy.   April 1968, murder of Dr Martin Luther King, Jr.: turmoil around the country.  New York strategy is not to attack crowds but to break them up and calm them down. We also have tear gas, which does not kill.  Bratton is a smart guy, his crew is good and he has a well-trained police department.  The mayor will not take a chance of having a breakdown of public order; will pretty much give Bratton a free hand. 
How New York Mayor John Lindsay handled the disorder after the King assassination in April 1968: "The protection of life is more important than anything else; we are not going to shoot children in New York City."  How the Chicago mayor Richard J Daley handled the disorder ("shoot arsonists but only name and stop looters"), and how the NYT covered the stories: April 17, 1968.  How Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh handled the disorder while the King funeral approached, April 11, 1968.
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Michael Auslin, Director of Japan Studies, AEI, in re: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is in town this week.  This official visit presents an opportunity for President Obama to embrace Japan’s bid for a greater role in Asia.  Revised defense guidelines of US and Japan are actually just a small part of Japan’s much broader security revolution.  Mr Abe presented himself as a charming man – a sort of Fred Astaire in a Japanese image. Charm offensive in Boston, New York, Washington, California.  He had the confidence to offer levity – made jokes about himself; was persuasive, mature. He's done something never before done in Japanese history, is much more in control of his policies.  Has articulated his vision of the world, can engage on the world stage.   Reaction to the content of the revised defense guidelines released yesterday.
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block D:  Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com; in re:   1. Clinton Cash: foreign donors to the Clinton Fdn (which promised State & Congress that there'd be disclosures – Dec 2008: all contributors will be named).   2. State staff double-dipping being paid by taxpayers plus getting paid by private sources, most linked to Clinton Fdn.  3. The fees paid to Bill Clinton while Mrs Clinton was Secretary: $48 million during that phase.  TD Bank backed the Keystone Pipeline; Mrs Clinton  . . .   Also: Frank Giustra, mining exec (putting in and pulling out feet from mouth anent confidentiality); Carlos Slim; __ in Toronto.  Kazakhstan: Nazarbayev will be president for another century.  Eleven hundred names. China: unclear who gave the money; one in India – fellow was lobbying for business in India, gave between 40-100% of his income to the Clinton Fdn. . . . Where's the investigation?  Mary's vid: on WSJlive.com
https://www.aei.org/publication/the-last-days-of-bashar-al-assad/ ; http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/growing-rebel-capabilities-press-the-syrian-regime  ;   http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/3-flaws-in-iran-nuclear-framework-that-could-undermine-a-final-deal
Hour Two
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Danielle Pletka, AEI, in re: Assad and Syria. A complete change of weather in the Middle East: leadership in Riyadh.  Prince Muqrin, a sturdy ally of the US, replaced by Prince Mohammed of the Sudari clan, associated with Wahhabism and fervent Saudi nationalism and vs. Iran.  In Syria, the Saudis will double down, push hard; some rebel forces not associated with ISIS have been gaining ground in recent months. Saudi lined up with Turkey and Qatar, rearming with many weapons.  Saudis and Qataris despise each other;; however, their larger enemies are ISIS and Iran, and the larger problem, the US.  Antipathy against AKP in Turkey, but working together against Assad, Iran's front man.  Success would be only a tactical victory; what cones next?  Sanaa and Damascus, both in civil war.   Saudis not as puissant as Iran but not negligible. Idlib, a large city fallen to al Nusrah Front; also in Daraa; a changing dynamic in Syria. Assad is now in a worse position than he's been in years. When his own Allawi people decide he's too much of a liability, he won’t stay.  Iran looks at Assad; when they must, they’ll detach from him.  Will still have Hezbollah and [probably] Hamas. Have well- reinforced enclaves on the Syrian and Israeli borders.   Syria will not de jure but de facto separate into [provinces of gangs and warlords].   If Assad goes, would cause Iran to lose face in the region. 
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block B: Michael Doran is a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, in re: Iran. How did the president weaken his hand with Zarif and yet to well with his Congressional critics?  He celebrate the Lausanne Framework before it existed, letting the Supreme Leader lay down redline demands, above all an immediate lifting of sanctions – which he may get (incl a $50 billion signing bonus).   When Kerry came to New York to meet Zarif he actually went to Zarif's home in New York.  As soon as Iran seized the Maersk Tigris, State said hat the US is not obliged to protect the property of the Marshall Islands (which, btw, is inaccurate).  What Khamenei most wants is the sanctions to be lifted- wants the money.  US has paid the Iranians $700 million a month to negotiate with the US, funds that have been frozen around the world under US sanctions. President can release all this by a stroke of the pen.  Pres Obama convinced the world that his strategic goal was to achieve a nuclear arms agreement when in fact what he wants is détente with Iran and the nuclear talks are a vehicle therefor.  Lord Halifax went fox-hunting with Goering, thus should have been made Prime Minister . . .
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block C: David Andrew Weinberg, Senior Fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, in re: Sudaris again in charge of the Kingdom; the Gulf is in the hands of the Sudaris.  The two new Saudi heirs – bin Nayef and bin Salman (who's also defense minister) – are both associated with a more interventionist mentality. In Syria, a mixed bag; the new Crown Prince also aligned with cautious thinking, need to be sure that Sunni jihadists don't come back to threaten the Kingdom. Surprise because the 79-year-old king as thought to be a place holder, but turned 40-plus ministries into two, got rid of Bandar,. Does not trust Muqrin, who was heir to the throne.  King Abdullah appointed him with "This decision cannot be changed for any reason" – and now it's been changed. Institutions are weak. A power-grab , isolate Sudaris from the other parties.  Called Sudari Arabia . . . .  the ambassador to the US , Jubber,  called a technocrat, now is foreign minister. Prince Saud al Faisal represented SA for forty years.   [more] demolish civil rights in the Kingdom.  Coming:   a summit in Washington on the Middle East. No one is enthusiastic about attending, but probably everyone will.   Moslem Brotherhood: efforts to suppress it in SA have been lifted. Fired the highest-ranking woman. The new king has done away with his predecessor's policies. No longer equality for women in education or ability to drive; increased religious extremism.
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block D: Joseph Humire, executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS), in re:
Hour Three
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Iranian deal.  Maersk Tigris, registered in Marshall Islands, carrying materials for the US Navy: ran fired on the ship and took possession of it. The name of this deed is piracy.  Today the State spokesman was asked abt a report from Brits that at least two blacklisted companies violating sanctions, plus another such report on compressors.  Ms Dar al Harf said it's not a violation of the Joint Agreement.  Iran mocks the agreement.  "Despite Sen Cotton, Iran will immed go to the UN as soon as the deal is signed and it'll be mandatory for all sanctions to be lifted right away" – in complete contradiction to what VP Biden has just said.   This is about nuclear production and the facts cannot be ignored. Clandestine operations; Iranians consistently lie.  Bizarre silences in the US.
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block B: Yoni Ben Menachem, Jerusalem Center & former Director General of Israel Broadcasting Authority;  in re: Power struggle for leadership in the PA; Jabat Al-Nasra and the connection to the PA; Israeli elections.  Many don't want Dahlan to succeed Abbas (who was elected for four years eleven years ago).   Entire leadership of PA is corrupt, which is how this dispute began: in a private conversation, Dahlan criticized two of Abbas's sons who're doing business all over he world based on connections; Dahlan kicked out of the Fatah movement and put on trial.  Two Swedes kidnapped in Syria in 2013; queen of Sweden asked for help, Dahlan used his ties to go to Syria and release the two without paying money to Jabat al Nusrah; this raises questions: what kind of relations between the PLO and this extreme terrorist organization?  Dahlan is a good friend of Hamas; in fact, head of Hamas military wing in Gaza and West Bank, responsible for killing hundreds of Israelis: he spent his jail time with Dahlan in the 1980s in an Israeli jail cell, so they're good friends.  Also  has a lot of investments.   [Israeli politics discussion.] 
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block C: Francis Rose, Federal News Radio, in re:
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block D:     Emily Schultheis, National Journal, in re:
Hour Four
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block A: Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director;  GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re:
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block B: Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re:
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block C:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re:
Thursday  30 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block D:   Paul Gregory, Hoover, in re: