The John Batchelor Show

Tuesday 11 March 2014

Air Date: 
March 11, 2014

Photo, above, and text from a tourist site: Simferopol [pronounced: seem-fehr-OH-pl], the capital of the Crimean peninsula, is called a “gathering city”, the city of “profit”. People of different nationalities from all over the world meet here and enjoy its peaceful atmosphere. Simferopol is a pearl of Ukraine and it is interesting for those who like history, geography and simply good rest and entertainment.

When you are in Scythian Neapolis, Greek settlement of the 3rd century BC, you will feel the spirit of ancient history. Dolgorukovskij Obelisk in the very center of the city will allow you to know more about Russian-Turkish war, and Eternal Fire in the park named after Gagarin may open something new you haven’t known before about the Second World War.  Worshippers of art can spend magnificent time in the Crimean Art Gallery.

One can have a wonderful walk along the Salgir River that flows through the city. You can have fun swimming on catamaran ship on the lake of Gagarin’s Park. Having breathed fresh air, you would certainly like to have a snack or tasty dinner. Restaurants made in Ukrainian style will pleasantly surprise you with delicious Ukrainian cuisine.

Evening Simferopol will show itself in another way. One can find diversified night clubs where theme parties take place. You can choose any music you want – club, retro, pop, disco, etc. If you are tired from city life, then you can go to the Black Sea. The Crimean Mountains, palaces of famous Tsars, wine tasting halls and many other exciting places won’t leave you indifferent. [nice pix here]

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Larry Kudlow, The Kudlow Report, CNBC; and Cumulus Media radio

Hour One

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Larry Kudlow, in re: John Batchelor on Kudlow Report earlier this evening anent GM's apparent malfeasance in failing to report a lethal mechanical problem know n in 2004.  As for charges that the CIA hacked into Senate intell committee e-mail – and Congress is mightily peeved. The Panetta Review on several such matters, esp rendition, is accused of being a Democratic critique – Panetta ain't much of a Dem, according to Larry Kudlow – and thus not likely to speak to ill of the current Administration.  Stil consistent reports over the years: CIA continues to shape investigations on the Hill, esp of Benghazi.  Their original tale has been shown not credible; still have fog of war – why so long?  First CIA comment was from then-director Petraeus – "a spontaneous demonstration based on a YouTube vid" – which of course was specifically untrue.  There's something in these papers that the CI doesn’t want released. It'll go to DOJ, run by Eric Holder, who’s 150% Obama's man. There may be 10 or 12 Dem Congr sets up for grabs – some is Obamacare; some is economy and jobs.  Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block B:    Sudeep Reddy, WSJ, REAL TIME ECONOMICS in re: What Does Jobs Report Mean for Economy, Fed?  Hilsenrath, Reddy Field Your Questions
  The Labor Department released the latest jobs report at 8:30 AM EST Friday. What do the data say about the state of the . . .                  

JB: We've been promised 250,000/mo. Why not?  SD:  No satisfactory answer.  We're stuck at the same trend at 201, 2012, 2013.  LK: This is the slowest jobs recovery since WWII. No obvious change heading this way. We're adding 2 – 2.5 mill jobs per year.  Economic downturn based on too much credit causes people to spend less. The question is why businesses that are sitting on huge cash piles don’t invest much of it.  We have one of the worst tax structures in the world.

The number of jobs added in the economy was 175,ooo in February, beating expectations. But the unemployment rate ticked up. What do the data say about the state of the economy and what will they mean for the Federal Reserve? Journal economics correspondents Jon Hilsenrath and Sudeep Reddy discussed the implications in a live video Spreecast . In futute, you can sign in with Twitter, Facebook, or join as a guest. Submit questions, chat or even come on camera and ask a question. The RSVP for a reminder to last Friday’s Spreecast: here.                 

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block C: John H. Cochrane, Hoover, Cato, & Grumpy Economist, Booth School of Business; in re: (see: Duelling Charts) Employment-Population Ratio: War of the Graphs  -- total number working divided into total population is better metric. Six to seven mill people lost jobs in recession, haven’t recovered.   Either the economy isn’t creating jobs – barriers to growth, or else something else is going on that we don’t know about.  A large group that isn’t working and won't. Numbers on Soc Sec disability has exploded. Food stamps, 99 weeks of unemployment, and such, are disincentives. Also disincentives too employers: vast numbers of fees, taxes, regulations.  Now 70% of Fed budget is payments to individuals. A lot of the transfer money goes to middle-class people –not going to poor people! Creating a govt-benefit society.  John Taylor, chart:  projections of where we'd be in 2014: dramatically wrong.  Did the Feds consider those transfer payments as a disincentive?  Yes.  . . .  The big decline we’ve seen is demographic. The [BLS?] got in hot water saying that the ACA would lower employment – "transfer disincentives." We’re becoming like Europe: large, highly-skilled and -trained workers group, then a vast [underclass] of people, where  up to 60% of the men will never work in life.

Americans should celebrate fracking. The technology has catapulted the United States from being a has-been producer of oil to the world’s largest total supplier in 2013 when we include natural gas liquids, biofuels, and crude oil. The U.S. produced around an average of 12.1 million barrels a day of these liquids—300,000 barrels a day more than Saudi Arabia and 1.6 million more than Russia, the previous leaders. This increase in U.S. output has not been matched since 1940 when the country was blessed with flush new primary production from oil fields in Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana, and Oklahoma . . .

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Scott W Atlas: Hoover, Investors Business Daily & FoxNews.com, in re: Breaking news on ACA from the wonk blog: Jan buildup fell off in Feb: young people are not enrolling at rate hoped/needed.   When Will the Backlash Occur? Perhaps its now under way: finally, people have felt the impact of the law, themselves. What they've felt is the million have lost insurance, millions found that replacement is expensive and inadequate; and people who’ve lost a ob turn to a part-time job.  Premiums and deductibles are up. Just 10% eligible have signed up. Uninsured and young not signing up.  A large percentage of those who've signed haven't paid, so they don't have insurance.  In some states, half haven’t paid.  Narrowing of doctors's networks was a tragic mistake. Narrowing of hospitals available.  All this was entirely intentional and predicted!  Not even finished ravelling. Straight out of Hayek: People make subjective decisions, while planners can’t possibly model for that – they do cost modelling, only, Invent a new brand of dog food using the smartest experts – but forgot to ask the dog if he liked it. Obamacare never bothered to ask the customers – this is ghastly ineffective bureaucratic central planning.   Americans, more than Canadians or Brits, value individual choice, Will not fly in the US.   Another mistake: insurance is about a last resort.  People will pay for protection against some catastrophic event.  This s insurance against stuff that's predictable and low-cost – exactly what we don’t want.

Also: Obamacare bummer — enrollment drops off in February About 4.2 million people have signed up for health plans on Obamacare exchanges through the end of February, making it unlikely that the Obama administration will hit lowered enrollment estimates in the program’s first year. Whatever momentum was building in January appeared to drop off in February, as the number of sign ups fell below […]

Hour Two

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton prof Emeritus;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin (1 of 4); in re: I think we’re drifting toward actual war for the first time in history between US and Russia, Trigger: EU and US move troops to Polish eastern border; then Putin wd be under much pressure from powerful people around him to move the 150,000 "practice" troops to the whole of eastern and southern Ukraine. Then it’s one misstep t war. Meanwhile the WH takes the view that the group in Kiev constitutes the legitimate govt; but it has no standing in intl law and Moscow wont recognize it. Kerry demands that Moscow meet with the rump Kiev govt – a nonstarter.  Kerry said, If you won’t do that, no point in talking about anything. That might as well be war. The Austro-Hungarian empire was called the saucepan of nations – sounds now like Crimea.  Lviv looks at Crimea differently from how Simferopol does, also Donetsk. Most Ukrainians who went overseas, esp to S, were from Western Ukraine -  committed suicide, fled; are fervently anti-Russian.  Crimean Tatars returned from Siberia, believe they'll be exiled again by Russians. Donetsk: rich and powerful city. U kraina means "at the edge" in Russian.  In Ukraine, they never really melded. It’s a state, that's maybe three countries. The state has collapsed since 23 Feb; we’re left with divers points of view. The political range is from plain fascist ( a minority – the tail that wags the dog) to liberal democrats. The 74-year USSR held it all together; when the USSR disintegrated, the parts lost that glue. 

Despite feeling heat over the NSA scandal, Obama has bright spot on handling of Ukraine. "Slightly more Americans approve than disapprove of President Obama's handling of the crisis in Ukraine, according to a new poll. The CNN/Opinion Research poll shows 48 percent approve of Obama when it comes to Ukraine, while 43 percent disapprove." Aaron Blake in The Washington Post.

Senators near deal on Ukraine aid, Russia sanctions bill. "Top senators are crafting a package that includes both direct aid to Ukraine and targeted sanctions in an effort to rapidly provide assistance to the new, pro-Western government in Kiev....Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) said Monday of a final agreement that 'we're very close.'" Seung Min Kim in Politico.

The State Border Service of Ukraine said March 11 that more and more people are leaving Crimea, especially Crimean Tatars, APA reported. The service said 265 people left Crimea over the course of a single day. The Turkish government has expressed concern about the safety of Tatars, a Turkic ethnic group, in Crimea.

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton prof Emeritus;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin (2 of 4) Crimean Tatars; the cruelty under Stalin: "The dead hand of the past has a grip on the living." During WWII, Stalin deported a bunch of small ethnic nationalities; ne of these unfortunate were the Crimean Tatars – hundreds of thousands to Siberia, Kazakhstan, gulags; permitted under Khrushchev allowed to return to Crimea where they had small land holdings – which had been given to Russians. They petitioned to no end.  The finally got restitutions; now  the descendants (12%? of population; Russians 605%) fear that ethnic Russians will reclaim if the lands. That's why they resist the upcoming referendum. Putin could easily solve by issuing an edict: that property is theirs. Am writing a book about the Stalinist Terror of 1936 until he died. Terrible famine in 1933 – millions of peasants died. People went to train stations, saw the swollen bellies of the children; a man dug his own grave; reports of cannibalism. Horrifying, Ukrainians have turned this into a specific victimization – in fact, Stalin killed every kind of person across the whole country. With Stalin, it wasn't ethnic – he killed staggering numbers of people of all varieties. Tens of millions of intermarriages, Ukrainian-Russian. 

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton prof Emeritus;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin  (3 of 4)  White House invites Yatseniuk for tomorrow. The Kiev rump govt.  has cut out the five Russian TV channels that go into Ukraine.  This is a hostile act against people in Eastern Ukraine – done by the Kiev rump govt.  Everybody understands Russian; it’s  a bilingual country.  Kiev govt unwisely decided to shut this down; Russian govt has appealed to a n EU regulatory agency as it’s illegal.  A sign of incipient war is that people stop talking and listening.  recall the Kiev tantrum that banned h use of Russian language. The Live parliThe extreme right has five seats, from Svoboda (Freedonm) Party and the Right Sector, which the EU called racist, anti-Semitic, and xenophobic, not consistent with European values. Armed, toughs with ski masks, beat up  people, hang around the Rada.  Decent people are afraid. If this is the legit govt, Washington needs to tell the govt to get rid of them  which is not possible. See Eugene Robinsons article in the Washington Post today – Russian media are flagging it now.  Concern for ht Vitali Klitschko, the boxer, on 21 Feb went to Maidan after negotiating a peaceful solution with the EU; he stands on a platform, a small guy stands next to him grabbed the mic, screamed "We'll never accept this – death to Yanukovitch " - and you could see the panic on Klitscho's face. The street thugs had taken control of the parliament and the polity.  What's called Lviv used to be Lvov – in Poland.    If residents of Lviv are afraid of the Kiev thugs, then the situation is bad.  Washington is looking this as a black-and-white state-to-stat issue, not understanding how complicated this is.  First farmed it out to Europe, which messed it up, so took it back and are trying to deal. Spinning a Manichaean narrative. You John Batchelor sorted this all out by yourself; the Administration can’t. We have no idea who's speaking to Obama – as he makes decisions disconnected from reality It’s very worrisome. 

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton prof Emeritus;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin  (4 of 4)  financial competition is one aspect of state-to-state [problems]  May have some Russians's assets frozen; Moscow wd need to speak with Kiev, which it won’t because Moscow claims that that Kiev is illegitimate.  We're now in Cold War. I'm worried that were're slipping toward hot war. Cameron said "the window o df diplocmacy is closing" – yike. One is to forbid Western corporations from working in Russia  ExonMobil and Germans refuse. Alternatvely, make a blacklist, figure out the anti-American in Russia and freeze their assets, lock them out of EU and US. Complicated: Kiev group is appointing Uke oligarchs as governors – vastly ore corrupt than the Russian oligarchs!  Yike.  Recall that the protestors were originally against these corrupt oligarchs.  Sanctions will not resolve this dispute; diplomacy will. Talk of freezing all Russian assets in the US – including Prokhorov's Brooklyn Nets just as they're about to make the playoffs. Crimea vote this  coming: return to the 1992 constitution where it was an independent republic within Ukraine. I hope Putin will not annex Crimea.

Hour Three

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block A: Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review & Pirates fan, in re:   Original Tea Partyers Returning to GOP Fold  Fortunately the actual voters behind the tea party movement of 2009 did some good before the vultures arrived

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Henry I Miller, M.D., Hoover & Forbes.com, in re: "A Faustian Bargain on Labeling Genetically Engineered Food," coauthored with Professor Drew Kershen.

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: The competition heats up: The Russian company that owns the Proton rocket is considering a redesign that would allow them to launch two satellites on one rocket. Launching two or more satellites during a single launch is not ground-breaking technology, but the Russian have never done it with their Proton. If they make this change, it will allow them to reduce the cost for a commercial launch considerably, thus making them more competitive against companies like SpaceX. That they have decided to consider this now, after almost three decades of commercial operation since the fall of the Soviet Union, is more proof that the low prices of SpaceX are forcing innovation and an effort to lower costs across the entire launch market.

Two Russians and an American landed safely in Kazakhstan on Monday, finishing their 166 mission to ISS. The Americans have not yet been kidnapped by the Russian government over the U.S./Russian conflict because of the invasion of the Crimea. Nor do I expect them to be.

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Joshua Greene, Bloomberg Businessweek, in re:  CHRIS CHRISTIE IS IN BETTER SHAPE THAN YOU THINK  Recent history and political science suggest the embattled New Jersey governor is still primed to be the 2016 GOP nominee.   . . . When the Conservative Political Action Conference kicked off here on Thursday morning, all eyes were on New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. No presidential prospect has endured a rougher few months, and Christie has been attacked from all sides.

Hour Four

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Matt Kaminski, WSJ, in re;  Russia Targets the Crimean Tatars—Again
 
Two decades after returning from exile, families fear the worst as Putin's troops mark their homes with an 'X.'

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Ken Crosswell, PhysicsWorld, in re:  The three nearest star systems, which a future Captain Kirk will want to explore for "strange new worlds":

ALPHA CENTAURI has three stars:  Proxima Centauri (a red dwarf, discovered 1915):  4.24 light-years from   (1)  Alpha Centauri A (a yellow G-type main-sequence star):  4.37 light-years from us.

 (2) Alpha Centauri B (an orange K-type main-sequence star):  4.37 light-years.  Has a hot Earth-sized planet.  (3) BARNARD'S STAR is single:  a red dwarf, discovered 1916:  6.0 light-years from us.

LUHMAN (pron: LOO-mn) 16 is double:  two brown dwarfs, discovered 2013:  6.6 light-years from us. 

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Roman Skaskiw, Daily Beast, in re:  Caught Between Empires, Ukraine Can’t Rely on the West for its Independence  When the latest Russian aggression ends, Ukraine will still be a borderland caught between East and West. To find peace and prosper Ukraine must reconcile itself to that historic role.  A peculiar aspect of Ukrainian identity has been the perceived need to prove our own existence. I vaguely remember some sort of heritage day in grade school at PS 229 in New York City. The teacher corrected me when I described myself as Ukrainian—I was Soviet, she said, or Russian. That was fine with me at the time, though I also remember a look of horror on my mother’s face when I relayed the episode.

Looking back at the history of Ukraine, a country whose name is usually translated as “border land,” one finds instances of Poles referring to Ukrainians as “Eastern Poles” and Russians referring to them as “Little Russians.” I’m grateful that as of about a week ago, I will forever be alleviated of the long-standing need to prove Ukrainians exist. Since the Mongols sacked Kyiv in 1241, the territory of today’s Ukraine has been the border between the agrarian civilization of the west, and the nomadic cultures of the steppe. Its aristocracy vanquished, Ukraine became largely a peasantry, and home to a very complex and evolving “Cossack” culture, which represented different things to different people—from an alternative and viable social order to the Medieval feudal arrangement, to an unpredictable menace. The Cossacks remain very much part of Ukraine’s national myth.

At different times in history, Cossacks allied with Tartars to sack Moscow, allied with Poles to fight an invading Turkish Army, and made a treaty with Moscow to enable a rebellion against the Polish monarchy. Ukraine was a battleground on the border of empires, and seemingly remains so.  . . . [more]

Tuesday  11 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Christopher Palmeri, Bloomberg Businessweek, in re: BIG MICKEY IS WATCHING  Disney is making a $1 billion bet on technology to track visitor preferences at its resorts—and lock out rivals. Their RFID-aided reservation setup, which lets guests reserve rides and charge goods, but also tracks their movements, let Disney handle an extra 3,000 daily visitors at the Magic Kingdom last year. Many fans are already sold, but critics in the blogosphere have unleashed a torrent of objections that Disney is limiting the number of reservations guests can make for its most popular attractions, and that the lines are as long as ever. Despite such grousing, hospitality experts say that the use of more monitoring technology is only a matter of time

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Music

Hour 1:  Lost. Constantine.  Batman Arkham City.

Hour 2:  Batman Arkham City. The Road. 

Hour 3:  Battle LA.

Hour 4