Photo, above: Ayu Oke, new head of Nigerian Intelligence. 

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Larry Kudlow, The Kudlow Report, CNBC; and Cumulus Media radio.

Hour One

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 1, Block A:  Larry Kudlow, in re: repricing risk; markets got frothy at end of year as growth expectations grew too high; meanwhile, Q4 results coming in pretty good. Is the US economy growing to grow at 3%, 4%, or 2%?  If 2%, then slump [coming]; I think we’re closer to 3% so this is a healthy market. Other stuff going on: Fed is tapering, which has been completely discounted. Emerging markets – negotiated the Greek bond deal – poses no systemic financial risk. Argentine is falling apart; maybe the biggest risk is Turkey; Erdogan has a lot of corruption in his govt. If his economy continues to sink it’ll be a problem for a lot of Euro companies doing bz in Turkey.  . . .  CBO report today: we'll lose the equivalent of 2 million jobs  (in hours worked) in the next few years.

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 1, Block B:    James Pethkoukis, AEI, in re; GOP defeatist attitude on immigration – "all Asians and Latins will vote Dem so we need to close down all immigration"; rather, we need to see immigrants as a blessing, a tremendous asset to our economy, and a good source of GOP votes.  LK: We allow in 60K brainiacs; need to double or triple, and welcome grads of US colleges.  JB: US gives only 13% of visas to workers, all the rest to family members; it’s upside down. Germany lets in 70% workers. Canada is not sentimental.  Rather, they look for benefit to the host country. LK: . . . You could have 100K border agents standing holding hands along the border.  Ryan is moving toward the brainiac position.  . . .

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy/ Are Asians and Hispanics really just a fifth column for big government?  I don’t know, really, whether it would be good or bad politically for Republicans to tackle immigration reform this year. Some say it would be divisive and distract from the party’s Obamacare critique. Others argue that waiting would inject the … read more >

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Morris P. Fiorina, Stanford and The Monkey Cage (Washington Post), in re: Americans Aren’t Polarized, Just Better Sorted  LK: Its not just Obamacare; it’s that everybody hates it.  MPF:  in 2010, Dems were overextended; now . . .

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Lanhee J. Chen, Hoover and Bloomberg View, in re:  How to Save Obama's Second Term / Trade, profit, growth. No discussion of fast-track authority for trade deals. Who's running the show now? Sen Read seems to be setting the agenda. President SOTU was just mailing it in. LK: In Europe, they don't think much of Obama – have watched Putin steel his bacon again and again.  LJC:  Asian think he's overpromised and underdelivered. LK: He wants to punish companies that make profits overseas; also not engage in a discussion on tax reform. Lack of understanding of integrated global economy. Speech was shockingly uncreative.  He has no business experience and doesn't understand what world business entails. .  LJC: Pres Obama has never really tried to work with Congress before. 

Hour Two

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 2, Block A:  Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re:  John Kerry says that the Obama Adm foreign policy is a failure; and the Assad regime is "slow-rolling" the chem weapons handover.   . . .  Nobody knows he answers to all the main questions, may not till we see the Iranian archives.  But you can see that the policy has failed: supposed to be speeding along in chem. weapons divestment, have done maybe 4%, moved the rest into zones that will be Assad's  if Syria fragments.  "The Iranians are masters of duplicity" means they’re going all out to save Assad, incl by supporting his enemies: Supreme Leader said, "It’s more important for Assad to survive than for me to survive."   One reason for support of al Q is to penetrate it for intell, also to take it over, and third to be able to sell some of the Syrian oppo to the West.  (Note: spy vs. spy)  In the 1920s, the Soviet Union which was under mil attack from the West created an imaginary organization called the Trust: "We're anti-Soviet, ask our help" and presented (real) secret docs from inside Lenin's regime, then on request assassinated high-ranking Soviet officials – Wes funded this KGB organization, letting the KGB basically to get inside us!  See the wonderful series, "___ of Spies."  Obama Adm is not apprised of the possibility that Iran is on both sides.

 The Desert of Mirrors: Who’s Really Who in the Middle East? It’s the Middle Eastern version of the old Abbott and Costello routine, “Who’s On First?”  Just when we thought we had at least most of the killers in Syria, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq sorted out, things suddenly became baffling.  Incomprehensible, even.  Some days you can’t tell the players even WITH a scorecard.

In Syria, some three years ago, a bunch of non-fanatics defected from Assad’s regular army, and started fighting against his regime.  There were more defections, and the opposition grew stronger, despite the regime’s violent counter-attacks.  It began to look as though Assad might fall.  Then his two big allies, Russia and Iran, shipped in weapons and fighters and the tide turned.  It began to look as though the opposition might be wiped out.  Then various Islamist fanatics–including two or three that could reliably be called Al Qaeda–rallied to the opposition cause, and did well enough for the conventional wisdom to embrace the thought that nobody was strong enough to win.  Then the various opposition groups started killing one another, tilting the battlefield back in Assad’s (and Iran’s, and Russia’s) favor.

I’m not going to make you memorize the names of all the groups.  I just want you to focus for a moment on the Abbott and Costello theme:  whose side is Al Qaeda on?  Pretty clear:  Al Qaeda was fighting alongside the opposition against Assad, which is to say, against Iran and Russia.  The AQ leaders often said so, in just those words.  But now comes word that the Al Qaeda forces are getting at least some support from Iran.  That word comes from the US Treasury and State Departments and other good sources, by way of Tom Joscelyn, my friend and colleague at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and he’s as good as it gets . . .   [more]

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. . .  one of the greatest of all grand deceptions, the Soviet-created “Trust” ^[6] just after the Revolution.  That was organized by the Soviet intelligence service, which created a phony opposition movement whose “leaders” contacted Western governments with offers to topple the Bolshevik regime.  The “Trust” leaders provided the Western strategists with secret documents, and even assassinated Soviet officials in order to establish the bona fides of the Trust.  The West bought the deception, and funded the Trust, giving the Soviets money, knowledge of Western plans, and the ability to manipulate Western anti-Soviet operations.  The Trust’s most celebrated victim was the British official “Reilly Ace of Spies,” who was lured to a meeting, arrested, tortured, and executed.

Stratagems of this sort are not all that unusual, and it would not surprise me to learn that Iran sponsored Al Qaeda groups in Syria and Iraq, posing (and indeed often acting) as anti-Assad or anti-Maliki forces, in order to penetrate the opposition, manipulate its actions, and foment . .

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Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 2, Block B:  John Avlon, CNN, The Daily Beast,  and Newsweek International, in re: Immigration reform.  

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 2, Block C:  Stephen F Cohen, NYU & Princeton Russian Studies prof Emeritus; author, Soviet Fates & Lost Alternatives, in re: U.S. Ambassador to Russia Resigns  Michael A. McFaul, a former senior adviser to President Obama, has been criticized by pro-Kremlin media for meeting with opposition politicians. "I've known Michael for thirty years and like him" but not his policies.   McFaul carried diplomatic activism – attending oppo mtgs, welcoming oppo activists to his home, tweeting, to a degree never before seen.  That's not the role of an American ambassador; too much is at stake.  In the mind of the Kremlin, McFaul probably somehow related to all sorts of things, incl the [mess] in Ukraine. Obama's policy toward  Russia has been a total failure.  Michael was first Obama's main Russian advisor, then for two years amb to Moscow, Responsibility is partly McFauls's, but at root is Obama's.   Not only does Obama's ambassador leave at the opening of the Sochi Olympics, but Obama has refused to go.  Enormous, fateful drama unfolding in Ukraine:  40% of the people speak Ukrainian, 25% speak both Ukraine and Russian.  Industrialized eastern region, impoverished western part.    Europe will not welcome more East European migrant workers.   South and East tilt historically, economically, religiously, culturally to Russia.  A ticking time-bomb in the Ukrainian state; who detonated? West says by the president who reneged on an agreement to sign with the EU – not true: Why that – why not have the assistance of both? Mayor of Lviv has declared he'd fight any action sent by Yanukovich, but mayor of Kharkiv laughs at photos of oppo beaten bloody.  Coming: Martial law? not enough police; wd have to rely on army.  High command issues conflicting statements.  Cd be a geographical division -  east and south to Russia; west to Europe.  This may not be he worst outcome. 

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F Cohen, NYU & Princeton Russian Studies prof Emeritus; author, Soviet Fates & Lost Alternatives, in re: It’s already a political civil war, and people are arming themselves. What we see in Ukraine today looks like the drawing of a new Cold War line between Russia and the West right down Ukraine, What will that mean for the next generation> Recall how dangerous the last Cold War was and multiply it.  House Intell Committee: specific threats to Sochi et al, and we’re working closely with the Russians.  In the US, this frightens people; unwise statements by Sate. Many Americans who'd planned to go to Sochi are not. Roll tape back: when American Western media criticism of Sochi began was of "cost overruns," then anti-gay-rights, then . . .   The Russians had to make every exertion, which they’ve done; also need sophisticated help from the West. Recall Boston: FSB warned FBI about Tsarnaev brothers, FBI shut the door.   US knows how to nullify detonating bombs with cell phones, Russians don’t have that.  Need US help.  Seven-mile ring around the athletes's villages is safe, but soft targets are not. 

 Amid protests, Ukraine more divided than ever
  Washington Post ‎- 7 hours ago 
KIEV, Ukraine — The mayor of a western city warned that his police would fight any troops sent in by the president. The governor of an eastern ...  Ukraine: Protesters fill Kiev's main square, as president announces return to work   As Ukraine's President Returns from Leave, His Options Seem Dismal

Hour Three

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 3, Block A:   Jeff Bliss, The Bliss Index, in re: Byelorus is a gathering spot for cybercriminals; Obama Adm is vulnerable: NSC warns agencies of Byelorussian malware. Oregon: you kick your Nikes off and smoke dope. I've ever been there; now KATU is doing investigative reporting over Covered Oregon (Obamacare site) that works not.  Ambush interview with a Mrs Lawson.  Looks like maybe some fraud; FBI seems to be interested.   Mtg with CMS prepared with some assistance from Oracle.  Oracle won the World Cup; New Zealand team beat the San Francisco taxes by paying big chunks before leaving NZ; in SF, paid minimum wage to reduce local taxes.  The Oakland Bay Bridge: bolts come from China; the Cartenas Bridge, a waterway leads inland from the Bay, also bolts problems with Chinese substandard steel.  The steel was (totally illegally) stamped: Bethlehem Steel!  George Lukas with a museum of cinematic innovations may be forbidden to stay in San Francisco, have to move to Chicago where he's friends with Rahm Emanuel's wife.

  . . . The Congressional Budget Office said the law will result in more than 2 million fewer full-time workers in coming years and that rollout issues mean about a million fewer people than expected will receive coverage in 2014.

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 3, Block B:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re:  The telescope that ate NASA. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) was to cost $1bil, done in 2007; now $8.8bil and launch in 2018 (maybe). Obama Adm funds it not by cutting the expensive space launch system, have eliminated astrophysics.   Bolden and Mikulski hold a press conference to lobby for continuing funding for – to shill for - the James Webb Space Telescope. Mikulski:  Sequestration "resulted in furloughs, shutdowns and slamdown politics" – hunh ? She accuses sequestration of these but they’re lies.  That didn’t in fact happen.

Before JWST entered development, around the turn of the century, program officials projected it would cost $1 billion to $3.5 billion and launch between 2007 to 2011, according to a Government Accountability Office report released Jan. 8. Now, after lengthy delays (seven years) and billions in added costs (a real budget of $8.8 billion), JWST is entering its peak development years, in which major subsystems will be put together, tested, integrated with one another, and tested again. It will be, according to Bolden, one of the most difficult parts of JWST’s construction.

“This is our tough budget year,” Bolden said. It is also the most expensive, according to projections the White House released last April with its 2014 budget proposal. Bolden spoke to the press here after he and Mikulski, JWST’s biggest ally in Congress, held a town hall meeting at Goddard, the center in charge of building the massive infrared observatory. Both NASA employees and executives from some of JWST’s major industry contractors attended.

Mikulski told reporters that automatic budget cuts known as sequestration, which reduced NASA’s 2013 appropriation to about $16.9 billion, “resulted in furloughs, shutdowns, slowdowns [and] slamdown politics [which] are exactly what could derail or cause enormous cost overruns to the James Webb.”

I am especially entertained by the disasters Mikulski lists in the last paragraph, all of which she blames on sequestration. They are identical to the lies Democratic politicians like her told before sequestration took effect, none of which happened. That she now makes believe as if these disasters did happen and expects us to believe her new lies about the future illustrates how much in contempt she holds the general public. Does she really believe people are that stupid?

The public battle between Virgin Galactic and the author of a new biography of Richard Branson that raises serious doubts about the company. Bottom line: The facts still suggest strongly that the company is having serious problems with SpaceShipTwo’s engines.   The legs for Falcon 9′s first stage.  They might make their first flight on the next supply mission to ISS, now scheduled for no earlier than March 1.

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Matthew Continetti, Washington Free Beacon and NRO FOREIGN POLICY, in re: The Big Chide  Words are Obama’s foreign-policy strategy. 

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Gregory Copley, author, in re: Australia, Indonesia Make Headway Against People-Smuggling.  
Key Recent Transitions: Central African Republic; Tunisia.
Recent Defense & Intelligence Appointments: Canada, Germany, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea

Canberra. Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s Australian Government has made major strides with its Indonesian counterpart in starting to arrest the flow of illegal migrants being smuggled into Australia via Indonesia. It is progress that defied the previous Labor governments of Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard.

It is progress that, in many ways, has overcome what were earlier seen to be intractable problems, including corruption in some Indonesian quarters and the earlier Australian Labor Government’s program which actually incentivized the illegal people-smuggling business. Labor had put in place programs that game substantial economic benefits to illegal immigrants and refugees, far exceeding the entitlement programs for Australians. The issue of illegal immigration — and immigration generally — in Australia is of defining importance to the country, not only for polarizing political reasons, but because it has substantially altered the character of Australian society.

The reasons for the progress in slowing the people smuggling are numerous, but central to the issue is the reality that the political term of the incumbent Indonesian Pres. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono ends in October 2014 [elections are on July 9, 2014, and Pres. Yudhoyono cannot stand for another term], and the fact that Gen. Moeldoko became Commander of the TNI (Tentara Nasional Indonesia: Indonesian National Military Forces) in August 2013, and will remain in his post when the next president is elected in Indonesia.

Hour Four

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Josh Ruxin, in Rwanda, author of A Thousand Hills to Heaven (1 of 2)

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Josh Ruxin, in Rwanda, author of A Thousand Hills to Heaven (2 of 2)

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Nelson Schwartz, NYT, in re:  The post-recession reality is that the customer base for businesses that appeal to the middle class is shrinking as the top tier pulls even further away. [more]

Tuesday  4 February 2014 / Hour 4, Block D:   Gene Marks, NYT, in re:  Around the country

• In Virginia, two court rulings could force Yelp to unmask a customer’s personal information and hand it over to a business owner.

• An Illinois county’s health department shuts down an 11-year-old girl’s cupcake business.

• A Young Entrepreneurs Academy round table in Southern California is bringing together local business owners with their future counterparts.

• A Kansas woman works her way from being homeless to owning a business.

• Here is where America’s wealthiest suburbanites live — and where they don’t.

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Music

Hour 1:  Alias, Season 2.   Waterworld.  Constantine. 

Hour 2:  Oblivion.  The Grey.  Thirteen Days.

Hour 3:  Hotel California.   I, Robot.   Hatfields and McCoys.    Thirty Days of Night.

Hour 4: