Map, above: Mexican drug cartels operating in the United States.  The U.S. and Mexican Narcos Are Smoking the Peace Pipe -- or so purports a cache of leaked emails from the private U.S. security firm Stratfor. The correspondences cite a Mexican diplomat who claims that not only is the U.S. government working in cahoots with Mexican drug cartels to funnel product into America, but has even entered a sort of pact with arguably the most powerful cartel, the Sinaloa, in hopes of beating back narco violence that continues to wrack Mexico. Maybe all those new drug-plane-sniffing sensors and Swiss-cheesing virtual border fences really are just a front. 

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Larry Kudlow, The Kudlow Report, CNBC; and Cumulus Media radio

Hour One

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Brett Arends, WSJ ROI Marketwatch, in re:  Buy small-cap Russian stocks; down 80% since 2007, he cheapest asset in the world. Obvious risky but a good contrarian move. What’s the likelihood of the ruble collapsing? Ah – invest in stocks, not currency.  Russian stocks  have fallen so far that the risks are already priced out.  I don't see the West going to war over this. Russia's income is from O&G – and the oil price just went up! Gold? Not a silly investment – hard to say how much to buy, but we may be in he first era in a century when there's no fixed global order, none nation is paramount.  This sort of thing tends to promote an era of conflict – in which case gold might have safe-haven aspects.  Both Russia and China have been stockpiling gold. Politically in Crimea: be surprised if [it jumps out of control].

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 1, Block B:    Sudeep Reddy, WSJ, in re: $500 trillion tax hike? Destroys any chance of comity or bipartisanship. Need to get rid of cronyism, but this isn’t it. Many people in Washington want tax reform. As soon as you address tax reform her, huge lobbyists jump in.

Global Stocks Rally Amid Easing Tensions U.S. and European stocks surged, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday record high. Safe-haven assets such as gold declined.   Plenty of FOMC news ahead.  Recap: Yellen Faces Congress for First Time as Fed Chairwoman  Just 10 days into her tenure, Janet Yellen heads to Capitol Hill today for her first congressional appearance as Federal Reserve chairwoman. She sits down before the House Financial Services Committee for the first day of delivering the central bank's semi-annual report to Congress

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Peter Berkowitz, Stanford, in re: The high cost of higher education: the rise in college costs since 19865 if 538%.  Ego, you can’t afford higher education in the United States unless you have access to enormous amounts of money.  Today's camps is dominated by the progressive part of the Democratic Party. Now, with Putin's tactic, and Pres Obama in opposition to him, what do they say?  In academe and esp in legal, they line up with the president: "Error to think of the Russian invasion – oops, sending in helos – in Cold War terms.  Need to organize the international community to send a strong msg that there will be costs."  In fact, Putin knows exactly what games he's playing and it's not a game, and I fear our president doesn’t understand it.  In the early 1990s, when the Soviet Union ceased, a colleague of mine at Harvard said there were two things about the cold war his colleagues didn’t understand: 1. There was a war, and 2. The US had won.  Today, it'd be gauche to say the US had won – should politically-correctly be seen as a [reorganization.]  Adam Smith Society at Columbia is a student society – a bright young person could feel suffocated by campus ambiance, but among the faculty, all orthodoxy.  In place for decades, it's got a stranglehold grip on hiring and tenure; sees merit only in views that echo its own.  At elite universities, faculty are not much concerned by a 538% increase in student costs.   /   Swarthmore "On College Campuses a Presumption of Guilt," Real Clear Politics.

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Paul Gregory, Hoover, in re:  Russia is split: simple people have been bombarded for months with "poor Russians of the East are under attack by barbarians of the West."  Eastern Ukrainians see Russian TV.  LK:  Both Ukraine and Georgia are poor countries. Where's Putin going?  PG: Putin doctrine: no formerly Soviet state will be alllowed to become a democracy or join the EU.  Ergo, he won't allow Ukraine to join the EU and escape his sphere of influence.  He'll destabilize eastern & southern Ukraine (already under way); stripping supplies to eastern Ukraine to put them in a disaster zone.  No strong govt will emerge before the lections.  The oligarchs of the east now strongly support Ukrainian sovereignty.   Many were shocked by snipers' shooting people dead in Maidan Square.  Putin was a young officer in East Berlin when the Union collapsed; he wants to restore it as much as possible.  He, Russia, are encircled by enemies.  All he can offer is patriotism and Great Mother Russia.  LK: Look at all the ex-Soviet states in the EU orbit – that's the future.  PG:  The rest have already "wised up," but they're under the Russian yoke – and fear Putin's reaction, knowing he won't let them go without a [bloody] fight.  Since Putin has badly damaged the economy, citizens are pleased to see him run circles around the American president (which he's been ding since Day One).  He was never going to help the US in the Middle East; support Assad, needs Iran to pester the US, will always vote with China in the UN.  When Washington says, "We can’t upset Mr Putin," I get upset. 

Paul Gregory on Putin. /  Alarm: Putin Will Not Stop With Crimea. Paper-Tiger Obama Will Do Nothing

Hour Two

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 2, Block A:  Eli Lake, senior national security correspondent, Newsweek/Daily Beast, in re: Mike Rogers, Michigan, Chair of Intelligence Committee, in re: it wasn't quite an intell failure; CIA was closer to the mark on Crimea.  The failure was not in data but in analysis. Synthesis of all 16 US intell agencies.  "Mirror imaging" – thinking that other leaders would respond the way the US or West would.  Putin has a Cold War mindset.   Mike Hayden was forthright about this, as were other intell professionals – over the years, US wanted Putin to be a partner in all sorts of things, from collecting loose nukes to  [other things].  "The crisis of the Obama Administration."   - Failure points to the fact that this Adm. has not been looking at the real Russia, has been treating it as some other bear. In Georgia, Saakashvili overplayed his hand; Russian troops occupy Abkhazia and South Ossetia to this day.  Putin sees [these nations] as "the near abroad."

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Fred Burton, Stratfor, in re: El Chapo called everything from Robin Hood to a mass murderer. Big story in Mexico. I never thought we’d see the day when the Mexican govt could target an get such a huge character.  Wind back the clock: DEA has worked many cases in the US, dvpd a  lot of elint and humint to find him.  Also, Mexico found the ruthless boss of the Zetas – with no real change in that gang.  El Chapo had tentacles into got, plic, military in Mexico, .The Sinaloa Federation is like a Mafia organization, with predominantly three criminal groups into not just drugs by others. Ismael Zambada may step into the void.  The bulk cash into Mexico from North America is sometimes called "the Mexican economy."  The cartels make money in human trafficking, child prostitution, hydrocarbon theft – anything that'll make a dime is under the cartels's control in Mexico.  They’ve taken over retail drug distribution in every major US city.  But  give the Mexican govt it due: it did move aggressively to capture a larger-than-life character, but bulk cash, stolen automobiles, and everything else flowing south across the border continues.

Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman Took Care of His Own, Except in His ...
 / Bloomberg Businessweek - Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman rose from this dirt-poor farming village in Mexico to become one of the wealthiest drug barons on the planet.


After 'El Chapo' arrest, focus turns to next Sinaloa drug boss ...
 
/ Los Angeles Times

— With the arrest of Sinaloa cartel boss Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, the leadership of Mexico's largest and most sophisticated ...

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 2, Block C:  Stephen F Cohen, NYU & Princeton Russian Studies prof Emeritus; author, Soviet Fates & Lost Alternatives, in re (1 of 2): Is Vladimir Putin in the Nineteenth Century?  A mind-boggling statement by Kerry. I guess the US invasions of the Twentieth Century don’t count.  Arguably, what Putin did doesn’t violate intl law – Russia has a treaty with Ukraine and is well within it.  Kerry's plan to isolate Russia from the West is infeasible; but suppose it were: do we want to drive Russia back to China?  US constitutional lawyers say that Putin is on solid legal ground: Kiev overthrew a legitimately-elected president.  Bothersome that Putin said, "Russia feels obliged to protect Russian-speaking people."  Ooops. 

And now Washington wants to move NATO to the border of Poland and Ukraine.  Then it'd be hard for Putin not to move troops near there. Today Robert Gates was asked about his book; he says: Do  not be egged on by Republican critics urging that US warships be sent into the Black Sea.   Then, Turkey would get involved and the crisis would swiftly spill into the Med.  So many Washington hawks pressing for [rash] deeds – Senators, Billy Crystal, McCain.  The Berlin Wall has metaphorically descended on the Ukrainian border.   We're in a danger zone.  Rand Paul says we may be responsible in part for what Putin has done. On a CNN panel with Newt Gingrich last week, I advanced the idea that the US  is partially responsible for the turn of events and, to my great surprise, Newt agreed. Note that the person wom Merkel wanted to be in charge, Vitali Klitschko, was verbally dismissed by the disgraced Victoria Nuland, who then cursed the EU, aiming specifically at Chancellor Merkel – whom Pres Obama now seriously needs for help.  Putin thinks Obama is irresolute and has a very short attention span; doesn’t trust him.

The Department of Defense announced that the United States has suspended all military engagements with Russia, Reuters reported March 4. In addition to military exercises and port visits, the United States will look at a series of economic and diplomatic sanctions to isolate Moscow because of its intervention in Ukraine. Trade and investment talks with Russia have also been put on hold. Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby called upon Russia to withdraw its forces from Crimea. 

NATO and Ukrainian officials will meet March 4 to discuss Article IV of the North Atlantic Treaty, according to a post on Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski's Twitter feed, RT reported March 3. Article IV states that involved parties will convene when the independence or territorial integrity of one of the parties is threatened. 

Crimea has received a financial assistance plan from Russia worth some $1 billion, Crimea's deputy prime minister said March 3, RT reported. According to the deputy prime minister, Russian companies are also prepared to invest $5 billion in various projects throughout the Ukrainian autonomous republic. Rather than invading, Moscow is more likely to use eastern Ukraine as political leverage over Kiev and the West.

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F Cohen, NYU & Princeton Russian Studies prof Emeritus; author, Soviet Fates & Lost Alternatives, in re (2 of 2):  In Donestsk, demonstrations both in favor of Russia and in favor of Kiev. Note that seizure of govt bldgs began in Kiev when Yanukovych - a rotter, but legally elected – was there.  Now that style has been adopted by pro-Russian groups.  Too many people wearing black masks.  Donestsk and Kharkiv are primarily Russian cities; these deeds many be provocations to create violence [by Western Ukrainians?].  . . .  Eventually, Russian troops will e orderd back into naval bases. I doubt that Putin would welcome intl monitors in Crimea.  Kerry took the promise of a loan of $1 billion; any money that comes in: a sizeable percentage will have to go to Russia to pay off the huge amt Ukraine owes Russia for oil, and to service loans from the West, esp German banks.  Putin offered Ukraine $15 billion – the West objected. Now the West has the chutzpah to ask Putin for financial help.  The two parties in the Ukrainian parliament who supported Yanukovych are on the run, so what remains is a rump parliament.  Merkel is being asked to mediate, so they’ll probably sticker her with the bill. Need thirty billion over two years?  She won’t bail out Greece, Spain, anyone in the EU. If she forked over money to Ukraine, those countries would explode. 

The ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich asked Russia to send troops to help stabilize Ukraine, according to a letter read by Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitali Churkin during a U.N. Security Council meeting March 3, Interfax reported. Ukraine is on the brink of civil war, the letter said, and under Western influence there have been open acts of terrorism, violence and persecution for linguistic and political reasons. Russian President Vladimir Putin should use the armed forces of Russia to establish legitimacy, peace, law and order in Ukraine, according to the letter. Churkin said Russia's goal is to defend the right to life of Russian citizens and compatriots and to stop radical extremists from destabilizing Ukraine. Rather than invading, Moscow is more likely to use eastern Ukraine as political leverage over Kiev and the West.

The Department of Defense announced that the United States has suspended all military engagements with Russia, Reuters reported March 4. In addition to military exercises and port visits, the United States will look at a series of economic and diplomatic sanctions to isolate Moscow because of its intervention in Ukraine. Trade and investment talks with Russia have also been put on hold. Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby called upon Russia to withdraw its forces from Crimea. 

Hour Three

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 3, Block A:   Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: BUDGET 2015: Ukraine Crisis Not Disrupting Russian Soyuz Flights, NASA Admin Says  Astronauts are expected to leave the International Space Station on ... and Russian relations, NASA's administrator said on Tuesday, March 4.

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 3, Block B:  Larry Diamond, Hoover, in re: The Betrayal of Tahrir Square   An Oscar-nominated film about the Egyptian revolution is banned in Egypt. That says a lot.   You can learn a lot about a regime by what it prevents its people from seeing and hearing. A case in point: The Square, an Oscar nominee for the year’s best documentary feature, is banned in Egypt—the very country whose revolutionary upheaval the film chronicles.

The Square tells the story of the youthful Tahrir Square protesters who precipitated the fall of longtime Egyptian military dictator Hosni Mubarak in 2011. They organized, coordinated, and communicated with each other and the world via Twitter, Facebook, cell phones, and YouTube. But the courage and idealism with which they took control of this central physical space in downtown Cairo is the film’s most important theme.

Their goal was both timely and timeless: protection of their basic human rights by a government they could hold accountable. That was the simple, unifying theme of the Arab Spring three years ago. It is what catalyzed the heroism and hopes of the young protagonists in The Square. It is what demonstrators in Tunis, Benghazi, Tripoli, Damascus, Sana’a, and Manama risked their lives to achieve.  It is what protesters in Kiev and Caracas have more recently risen up for, and died for.

In fact, at least some of the democracy protesters in Kiev’s Maidan have seen The Square—demonstrators gathered in their square, in freezing temperatures, to watch a dubbed version of the film—and they have communicated their support for the Egyptian struggle via social-media messages to the filmmakers. News, ideas, and visuals travel far and fast in the digital age.

Two budding autocracies—first Morsi, then Sisi—have betrayed the democratic hopes and ideals that animated Tahrir Square.  The Square is not merely a film about Egypt and the current moment. It speaks to a universal human aspiration that has helped drive transitions to democracy in more than 60 countries in the last four decades. Yet, in countries like Ukraine and Venezuela, many of these democratic hopes were dashed by the corruption, arrogance, lawlessness, and sheer incompetence of the rulers that revolutions and elections thrust forth. 

That, too, has been a component of the freeze that has followed the Arab Spring. Twice in less than two years, budding autocracies—first of Egypt’s elected president, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi, then of the Egyptian generals—have betrayed the democratic hopes and ideals that animated Tahrir Square, along with the young protesters who helped bring these political forces to power.  Since the military coup last July . . .  [more]

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 3, Block C:   Leon Aron, AEI, in re:  ASIA   How to understand Putin's Ukraine strategy To understand what motivates Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Ukrainian crisis and how he will proceed, we have to recall two key things about his strategy and his tactics.

First, Russian foreign policy — whether under Brezhnev, Yeltsin, Putin or anyone after him — is informed by three imperatives: Russia as a nuclear superpower, Russia as the world’s great power, and Russia as the central power in the post-Soviet geopolitical space. And a power that is political, economic, cultural, diplomatic and most certainly military.

What differs from one Russian political regime to another is interpretation and implementation, that is, the policies that support these objectives.  Putin’s have been far more assertive and at times riskier than those of his predecessors. The nuclear “superpowership” has been translated into a vehement opposition to missile defense in Europe.  Russia as a great power has been defined largely in opposition to the U.S. and the West in general. And the centrality of Russia in the post-Soviet space has been reinterpreted as dominance and hegemony.  Ukraine’s European breakout — caused by . . .  [more]

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 3, Block D:  Mark Hertsgaard, Bloomberg Businessweek, in re:   THE PETRO STATES OF AMERICA.  Big Oil's sway over Washington makes the U.S. a petrol state in all but name, a reality that looms large over the Keystone debate.  Climate advocates are calling on Obama to reject a pipeline that would connect a massive amount of carbon to the world oil market and most certainly expand greenhouse gas emissions. Yet in a petro-state, Big Oil's agenda can trump such considerations. Ultimately, Obama’s decision will reveal much about what comes first in today’s Washington: the prerogatives of the petro state or common sense against climate change.  [more]

Hour Four

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 4, Block A: The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters by  Gregory Zuckerman  (1 of 4)

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 4, Block B: The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters by  Gregory Zuckerman  (2 of 4)

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 4, Block C: The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters by  Gregory Zuckerman  (3 of 4)

Tuesday  4 March   2014 / Hour 4, Block D: The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters by  Gregory Zuckerman  (4 of 4)

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