.Photo, left: Will there be an Artyom Borovik for al Shaams?
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio
 
Hour One
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Phil Izzo, WSJ, in re:  . . .  Weak  worldwide demand for consumer goods – worldwide recession. Three consecutive y-o-y declines, Q4, Q!, Q12. Concerned. Another quarter or two, people will look at the R word – recession. Delta cutting thousands of good jobs.  . . .  Domestically, we look pretty good on car sales, housing, consumer spending; problem is the rest of the world has slowed down, and that's where the US sells its goods.
        “It’s nigh impossible to read the last four months’ gradual deterioration in the labor markets and think the Fed can remain confident on the jobs picture….It’s hard to find many positive themes in the September labor market report, which imperils a 2015 Fed rate hike.” –Janney Montgomery Scott
        “Holy disappointing jobs report! Headline weakness coupled with nonexistent wage growth, and a further decline in the participation rate suggests the U.S. labor market is undergoing a significant slowdown in the second half of the year. Furthermore, keep in mind, weakness in the labor market generally translates into weakness in headline economic activity as well….From the Fed’s perspective—I imagine they are thinking one word: Phew! Thank goodness we bypassed September. With two consecutive months of significant headline weakness, in our opinion, October is very much off the table, as is a rate increase by the end of the year.” –Lindsey Piegza, Stifel
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Phil Izzo, WSJ, in re: Debt ceiling coming up again in a couple of weeks; Congress could generate a recession. The Fed could generate recession by raising rate precipitately. The ISM [mfrg report] for Sept was lousy – 50.2: a slide, a slump. ISM for services are better, but softening a bit. The one policy measure that has to be done is deep corporate tax cuts, expensing, repatriation of  US funds overseas. . . . Lets not call it a recession, let's call it sludge. A recipe for both parties' being punished going in to the election. . . . If you let the debt ceiling expire without increasing it, that'll cause global panic. I can take a govt shutdown for a few days, but I always oppose messing with teh debt ceiling – the US Treasury runs the world's currency, courting disaster. Next month's reports will be very important.            
       The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in August as weak commodity prices, a strong dollar and soft overseas demand weighed on goods exports. The latest figures suggest net exports will be a drag on gross domestic product in the third quarter of the year. Read More »
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Kori Schake, Hoover, in re: The many Sukhois above Syria point to Putin's increasing role in the Middle East. See pix: Merkel and Hollande looking hopefully toward Putin: for leadership? Europeans are rattled by Russia's increasing power and by the American reserve – basically, failure to act.  Putin has taken the whole play from the US, is now bombing the enemies of Assad and a few pro-US Syrian troops who might be there. Power abhors a vacuum ; everyone there needs to edge his bets an make alternative security arrangements, even including  Israel.  The new enforcer of order in the Middle East is Putin. Europeans are consumed with the crises of Greek mismanagement and the onrush of arrivals. Cooperation between Israel and the Sunni countries, not pushing Russia out of the leadership. Russian-Iranian axis to dominate?  . .  Pres Obama spoke o a "quagmire" in Iraq, which is why I took us out of that war. Since the US couldn't succeed Russia won't , either."  – every element of that statement is inaccurate.  By 2008, the war in Iraq had turned around and was becoming successful for the US.  Pres Obama insisted that no use of military force can be successful – which I find disgraceful. . . . Pres Obama believes that America is a dangerous force in intl order and needs to be constrained.  Now the US has removed Iran from languishing in [intl opprobrium]. And we've empowered Iran with $150 Bil. In fact, the most disgraceful thing Pres Obama has said:   "There's no way that Iran will use this economic windfall to back terrorism." I think the continuity we'll see in Obama's foreign policy as an ineffectual minimum. We'll see ISIS roar though the region and behead American aid workers an journalist. US could drive up Russia's costs by complicating its mil operations, by establishing a zone for refugees. One of the reasons the Kurds are successful is that we've encouraged good leadership for several decades. 
        The E.R.: Who’s the Most Successful One of All? Rating the World's Leaders. David Rothkopf, Rosa Brooks, Bob Kagan, and Kori Schake debate who's been the world's most effective head of state since Barack Obama took office. Spoiler alert: It doesn't help to be a good guy.
         Since President Barack Obama took office in 2009 — from Afghanistan to Iraq, from Greece to Ukraine — wars, crises, and upheaval have rewritten the geopolitical pecking order. In this special edition of The E.R. podcast, our panel asks who has been the biggest winner of them all, the most successful leader in the world since 2008. Hint: Angela Merkel scored well, but still finished fourth.  Rosa Brooks teaches international law, national security, and constitutional law at Georgetown University.  Kori Schake is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, where she focuses on military history. She is a former foreign-policy advisor to Sen. John McCain. Robert Kagan is a historian, best-selling author, and columnist at the Washington Post. He is also a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. David Rothkopf is CEO and editor of the FP Group.
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: John A Catsimatidis, Cats Roundtable radio, and founder & owner, Gristede's Supermarkets and all the other divisions making up the Red Apple Group (incl United Refining, which processes crude oil & distributes fuel to its many outlets and gas stations in the Northeast & Midwest); in re: I don't believe that we ever really got out of the - ; New York is an intl capital – Miami is the capital of South America; Los Angeles, of Asia – we're not totally  out of the recession. We're only fooling ourselves. I never expected interest rates to go up. Politically they may want to, but every time here's some occurrence.  . . . Donald Trump is doing well because Americans feel mad as heck; look at GOP, Dems, Congress, mad at everyone.  the press keeps replaying the same old news. If you have a four-engine aircraft and one engine conks out, you're not going down, but you're not going up, either.  . . . No one will hire part-timers any more because of he penalties of Obamacare.  People need incentives to invest or create jobs.  "Reconciliation" takes only 51 votes in the Senate. We have two or three trillion dollars overseas – give 'em a special tax rate, bring the money back and hire Americans! As a great believer in American democracy, I predict our compatriots will vote for big changes. 
 
Hour Two
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton. He is also a member of the Board of the recently-formed American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: . . .  Syria driving the refugee matter plus the Russian intervention.  The new cold war grows. "The American Committee for East-West Accord" – Sen Bradley, Jack Matlock, Steve Cohen.  Gilbert Doctorow on eastwestaccord.com.  Cold war driven into Europe, now is in Syria.  Condi Rice's misapprehension years ago. Until 18 most go, Europe generally sided with the US on the Ukrainian crisis; tonight. it's shifted from the US in Russia's favor , significantly in regard to Ukraine but overwhelmingly in regard to Syria.  Hollande and Merkel had leaned hard on Obama to meet with Putin in New York, while Obama's policy had been to isolate Putin [good luck].  Expect millions of refugees/people fleeing next year, gravely threatening Europe's grand project of union.  Growing support to nationalist parties in the EU and UK. Parties already against eh EU and the US; like Putin: stress sovereignty over alliances.  Syrian refugee crisis brought it to the fore.  Police, barricades, fences, dogs.
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton. He is also a member of the Board of the recently-formed American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re:. .  Poroshenko in Aris on 2 Oct where they ere firm with him: neither Putin nor Poroshenko attended as Hollande and Merkel said that Poroshenko had made a concession: rebels were scheduled to hold elections soon, but that violated the Minsk II Accords. Putin delayed them. Right Sector demos with three people killed.  The Ukr govt exists in Kiev almost solely because of US financial and mil backing. If problem, look for possible provocation staged to discredit Russia and so educe support for Russia in Syria.
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton. He is also a member of the Board of the recently-formed American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re:. . . the moment Putin told Obama that Russia was going in to Syria with air power – he was straightforward and invited Obama to join – and the notion that the US got only one hour's notice via the US ambassador in Baghdad is wholly bogus – at that moment, Obama was faced with a decision: we have a new front in the Russian-American cold war, to wit, Syria. Obama can enter the war zone into what Putin believes to his core is a fundamental Russian natl interest, or Obama can oppose it, in which case we have a second front in the cold war proxy wars.  Politically, the US is condemning Russia and privately may be coordinating, Now a third forces; US pols' demanding that US shoot down Russian aircraft.  Zbig Brzezinski, Sen Cotton of Arkansas, and so forth.  This would be open war on Russia.  . . .  Putin thinks that the Syrian army is the most capable force against ISIS. Dunno if that 's true, but I've never seen anyone point to a compelling alternative.  . . .  Aleppo province is occupied by al Nusrah. Errors will occur.  Anyone who advocates a no-fly zone over Syria – if they're intelligent or informed (and we can't be sure they are)  – are essentially proposing war with Russia, . Mrs Clinton has. Donald Trump has distinguished himself by not advocating that. 
Brzezinski: Obama should retaliate if Russia doesn't stop attacking US assets ; US should disarm Russia in Syria: Zbig ;
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton. He is also a member of the Board of the recently-formed American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: Russian Soldiers Join Syria Fight Russia said on Monday that its “volunteer” ground forces would be deployed, a move that ... ; Russia denies ground troops involved in Syria, amid confusion over 'volunteers' ; Russian "volunteers" likely to fight with Assad's troops ; Brzezinski: Obama should retaliate if Russia doesn't stop attacking ... The United States should threaten to retaliate if Russia does not stop ... Carter and a strong supporter of current President Barack Obama. Obama Thinks We're Not Playing Chess with Russia ; Russia must meet with US on Syria flight conflicts: US defense ... ; Carter: Russia 'pouring gasoline on the fire' by backing Syrian regime.   In Europe, in Spain, Carter calling out Kremlin   "I do not believe that it is accidental," he said during a press briefing at Morón Air Base, Spain, on Tuesday where he visited troops. "We will react to that, and certainly the Turks will and have said they will. So it's a serious matter. We take it very, very seriously." 
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) said on Monday that Russian fighter aircraft violated Turkish airspace on Saturday and Sunday. Turkey said in Saturday's incursion, two Turkish F-16 fighter jets intercepted the aircraft and the Russian planes departed.
There’s a video going around online of a Russian weather forecaster discussing “good weather for bombing” in Syria.  No, seriously.  According to the AFP, a forecaster this week on Russian TV brought up the weather in Syria to explain how it is “ideal for carrying out” operations, flanked by a giant graphic saying “Flying Weather.”
 
Hour Three
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block A:   Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and Prof Lara M Brown, George Washington University, in re:  At Hillary Clinton’s campaign headquarters in Brooklyn, staffers are invited to complete a phrase that is written on a wall: “Hillary for ...”  Beside it, staffers have plastered dozens of sticky notes with various words and phrases. (1 of 2)
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and Prof Lara M Brown, George Washington University, in re:  At Hillary Clinton’s campaign headquarters in Brooklyn, staffers are invited to complete a phrase that is written on a wall: “Hillary for ...”  Beside it, staffers have plastered dozens of sticky notes with various words and phrases. (2 of 2)
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block C:   Josh Rogin, Bloomberg View, in re: Congress to push Obama on North Korea sanctions
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block D:  James Taranto, WSJ editorial, in re: Running on Benghazi Mrs. Clinton seizes an opportunity.
 
Hour Four
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block A: Target Tokyo: Jimmy Doolittle and the Raid That Avenged Pearl Harbor by James M. Scott PART II OF III (1 of 4)
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: Target Tokyo: Jimmy Doolittle and the Raid That Avenged Pearl Harbor by James M. Scott PART II OF III (2 of 4)
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: Target Tokyo: Jimmy Doolittle and the Raid That Avenged Pearl Harbor by James M. Scott PART II OF III (3 of 4)
Tuesday 6 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: Target Tokyo: Jimmy Doolittle and the Raid That Avenged Pearl Harbor by James M. Scott PART II OF III (4 of 4)
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