The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 1 July 2015

Air Date: 
July 01, 2015

Photo, left:  Yazidi child refugee. See Hour 2, Block C, Murad Ismael, Sinjar Crisis & Yazda.org, anent: In August 2014, ISIS invaded Yazidi territory in Western Iraq, especially Mosul; massacred maybe 5,000 Yazidis. As many as could fled north and eastward. Now, a year later, . . . 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Fraser Howie, co-author, Red Capitalism, in re: Chinese economy is at close to 0%  - it's deteriorated and the new PMI for June confirms that mfrg is contacting.  Shanghai & Shenzen markets:  detached from others, a sort of casino  - but the last week has been crazy.  Official number is 7% growth on an $11 trillion economy, but everywhere you look demand is falling. Tremendous bubble from govt support. When the mkt rises 3%/day for a month, you know a nasty downturn is coming.  These markets can fall 5% in an hour. First shares issued in the late Seventies; nature is still highly speculative because the govt controls and intervenes [q.v.; listen to podcast] in the mkts.   . . . The last thing the govt should  be doing is trying to inflate another bubble.  There's no real good investment out there right now.
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block B: Evan Ellis, professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, in re: Cuba and China. Once upon a time there was a Chinese Communist state – the PRC; this time they were  bit taken by surprise by res Obama's announcement, are scrambling for advantage against the Russians, Brazilians, and Mexicans.  Russians want to move into military bases, whereas Brazilians want commerce; Russians worried that China can undercut labor prices. Coming: ripple effects throughout the Caribbean. . . . Mariel Free Trade Zone.  Russia out of luck there, so working in Santiago. There does exist a strong element of charity – washing machines, et al., sent on credit. Gem Fang called on Pres Raul Castro:  we won't see Chinese bases there, but maybe Chinese money. This is an economic play that can open the door for other strategic risks, Cuba may play China against Russia, which works to keep the upper hand.
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Hotel Mars, episode n. Michael J. Listner, spacelawsolutions.com, in re: National space policy. Not only remediation, but a lot of legal, political and financial questions around space debris. need a more assertive approach in defending space assets – we have a mushy policy now, need a more pro-active stance.  Coming now: space copyrights: mining asteroids, with two private companies starting to go forward fast.  . . .   Commercial space: this Administration broke with previous to subsidize commercial space; the next Adm may continue, or may cut back.  . . .   (Space weapons are a vacuous issue.)  Treaties have to be ratified and go through the Senate, whereas CBMs and transparency merely . . .  Small sats and cube sats.  If we take responsibility for space debris we can not only set an example but possible create international norms. 
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block D:  Francis Rose, Federal News Radio, in re: 
Hour Two
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Harry Kazianis, executive editor of The National Interest and a senior Fellow for defense policy at the Center for the National Interest, in re: Asia is a contest between China and the rest.  Gordon is in Hong Kong, close to the battlefield:: East China Sea and South China Sea ("Asia's cauldron"). Spratly Islands.  Japan is planning patrols in the South China Sea. Recall June 19, 1960: Ike in Eat Asia on farewell trip after two terms, in S Korea, disinvited to Japan because of rioting in the streets – as Diet goes to pass ratification of new US-Japanese mutual security treaty. Tens of thousands of left students scream opposition. This used to be one-way as US defended Japan, but now there are Japanese patrol planes exercising with Philippines, which has Beijing quite upset.  Since Japan is an island nation, it depends on free sea lanes for basic goods - $5.2 trillion in goods traverses South China Sea.  As China builds fake reefs and slowly, day by day, changes the status of he sea, Japan has to be concerned.  China is creating a coalition against itself – it pushes and pushes, puts cracks in the geopolitics; used to be countries with vastly different interests, who now increasingly work together Japan and India, US and India, Japan and multiple countries.  "China has almost finished bldg a 3,000-foot airstrip on one of the [just-constructed] reefs." China said that these reefs would be for disaster relief and weather monitoring, but everyone knew this is military – will try to close off not only water but air.  Finally, people starting to question the dual-track relations with China: China's off the rails so this is not working – not sensible to have robust trade relations when the security relations are disintegrating.  China, Wang Yi (Foreign minister) said, "[Not to be aggressive] – to change our stand - would be to shame the ancestors," which means: totally nonnegotiable.
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block B: Julia Famularo, research affiliate at Project 2049 Institute, in re:  . . . authorizes PRC to "protect its interests overseas."  Oops.    Party has strengthen itself, wants to assert supremacy in all areas – ideologically, politically, in security; hardliners increasingly gain control in Xinjiang. Show trials, public executions, rounding up anyone who might challenge authority.  Since May 2014, Xi put new antiterrorism measures I Beijing now obliges Muslim merchants to sell liquor and cigarettes, and to display them prominently.   So far, this is just at the county level: local officials interpret the new Xinjiang regulations to Sinicize Uyghurs. The Chinese have big drinking parties during Ramadan – and are forcing Uyghurs to participate!  This is sadism.
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block C:  Murad Ismael, Sinjar Crisis & Yazda.org, in re: In August 2014, ISIS invaded Yazidi territory in Western Iraq, esp Mosul; massacred maybe 5,000 Yazidis. As many as could fled north and eastward. Now, a year later, many are trying to escape via Turkey.  About 18,000 Yazidis living in very bad conditions in SE Turkey are afraid of being killed there, and now many are trying to get in to Bulgaria and thereby into the EU. This is a crisis over many states – Turkey, Iraq, Kurdistan.  Who’s taking responsibility for the Yazidi refugee camps in Iraq and elsewhere?  What had happened initially was a massive attacks; many many now living in trauma.  Aid is reducing with time – US, UN, UNICEF – everyone has reduced funding even as more and more refugees flee. The humanitarian crisis is worse than it used to be.   This chaotic disorder seems to be similar to that in the Mediterranean Basin. Many such stories, with the Yazidis only among the most recent. Is there a response from the European Union?   An effort to make a Yazidi province in Iraq; we want the intl community to provide refuge t the families in Turkey and let them be resettled in [safe] countries.  We need our women to be safe from brutalization and our children to be educated.  Dialogue within the community: wed like to hold our native land of the last four thousand years, but we haven’t the capacity to protect ourselves, to defend against ISIS and future groups – we've been under attack for 700 yeas.  Probably 90% want refuge in the West. There are people whose children, wife and sisters have been abducted and right now are enslaved.
News:  15, 000 Displaced Yezidis in Turkey seek mass exodus to EU through Bulgaria / The world fails to address Yazidi crisis; 7000 enslaved, 5000 killed, and a half million displaced; they now plead for resettlement.   Thousands are in the streets, some confrontations with the police have already taken place.    Some updates on the ground: 
- Estimated 700 refugees arrived at the Bulgarian-Turkish crossing point; police made them ride in Government buses, no decision has been made yet.
- About 20 more buses on their way to the border 
- Police blocked passage of refugees from Midyat, Nesybeen, and other camps.
- Confrontations between the refugees and Turkish police took place at several locations, no causalities reported. 
- At least three thousand are on the roads now, trying to find away to get to the border. 
- Police are surrounding all the camps and putting refugees under siege.
Diyarbakir, Turkey – June 27, 2015.  Nearly 15,000 Yazidi displaced refugees in southeast of Turkey are seeking mass exodus to European Union countries through Turkish-Bulgarian crossing point where they plan formally to request temporary residency in Bulgaria, and admission to other EU countries as refugees.
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block D:  Liz Peek, The Fiscal Times & Fox, in re: Related: Head of Hacked U.S. Agency Says Problems ‘Decades in the Making’ While this last effort sounds almost playful, these attacks are anything but. They should be viewed as acts of aggression, and the perpetrators held accountable. Panetta warned in 2012, “An aggressor nation or extremist group could use these kinds of cyber tools to gain control of critical switches... [which might} attack these systems and cause panic and destruction and even the loss of life.”
Let us hope that it does not come to that.  
Unhappily, Americans are becoming inured to cyber intrusions; most people have had their emails or credit cards stolen by cyber thieves. Such annoyances have become everyday events; the OPM breach probably struck most people as almost routine – like the data stolen from 40 million Target customers last Christmas. That is not the case.  What should be done? Through an aggressive counter-cyber effort, Obama must make it clear that attacks on U.S. property will be met with equal force. This means confronting the Chinese, which this administration has long been loath to do, for fear of upsetting commercial relations. The White House has no stomach for confrontation, especially since President Obama needs China to back his Iran nuclear deal. Every day, the price tag of that agreement gets more expensive. [more]
Hour Three
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Chris Christie takes the stage Chris Christie's political mentor does not like to be touched. Everyone close to Bill Palatucci knows this about him. They especially know that ...  /  First Draft | Chris Christie Picks Up an Endorsement, but Its Value Is ...  / Chris Christie wins an endorsement: Maine Gov. Paul LePage  /  Chris Christie is not running for Prom King  /  Kasich signs $71B budget after vetoing 44 items  COLUMBUS — Ohio Gov. John Kasich on Tuesday signed a $71.2 billion, two-year state budget that continues his expansion of the Medicaid ... /  Kasich veto cuts some school funding; he allows abortion-clinic ...
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Rick Santorum gets super PAC and early donor support  A new super PAC is launching Wednesday to support Republican Rick Santorum's second presidential bid, and one of his biggest financial ...
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block C: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Sorry, Liberals, But the Roberts Court Is Still Conservative That's a remarkable reversal, given the trend just a few years earlier: The court's most conservative term in decades was in 2008, Roberts' ...  /  The Roberts court is aligned with mainstream public opinion  /  COLUMN-How Chief Justice John Roberts made himself a footnote ...  /  Did the Roberts Court Really Lurch Left
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block D: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: 13 Emails That Stood Out from the Latest Clinton Document Dump  Late Tuesday evening the State Department released almost 2,000 emails from Hillary Clinton's time as secretary of state. While there was no ... / State Department releases more than 1900 Clinton emails  /  New Hillary Clinton Emails Released
Hour Four
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block A:  Aaron Klein, KleinOnline and Salem Radio Network, in re: PM:  Sinai bloodbath a sign terrorism ‘knocking on Israel’s borders’
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block B: Aaron Klein, KleinOnline and Salem Radio Network, in re: After Sinai attacks, Israel slams shut border gates
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block C: Oshrat Carmiel, NYT, in re:  Manhattan real estate prices.
Wednesday   1 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block D:   Robert Zimmerman,  behindtheblack.com, in re: New Horizons gets closer. Cool image time! Even as the engineers successfully completed last night their last course correction engine burn, the New Horizons science team released an image showing both Pluto and Charon.  The 23-second thruster burst was the third and final planned targeting maneuver of New Horizons’ approach phase to Pluto; it was also the smallest of the nine course corrections since New Horizons launched in January 2006. It bumped the spacecraft’s velocity by just 27 centimeters per second – about one-half mile per hour – slightly adjusting its arrival time and position at a flyby close-approach target point approximately 7,750 miles (12,500 kilometers) above Pluto’s surface.  The image, which I've cropped to focus on the planets, is still somewhat fuzzy, though it also shows the increasing sharpness as the spacecraft gets closer. Only two weeks to go!