The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 13 July 2016

Air Date: 
July 13, 2016

Photo, left: 
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
 
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Scott Harold, full political scientist and deputy director, Center for Asia-Pacific Policy at The Rand Corporation, in re: the international court at the Hague issued a verdict on the Nin-Dash Line, and within it the Cow’s Tongue  –  new map wherein China claims all the waters it wants in the South China Sea. China’s flagrant disregard of agreed international practice; China elected to snub the court entirely, and the Court now condemns across the board China’s bogus claim. Vietnam welcomed the verdict; Indonesia is pleased; Taiwan, alone, finds itself agreeing with Beijing.     Meanwhile, concern over the possible ADIZ China intends to establish (illegally).  China’s rise has been so meteoric; it thought it could push back and intimidate its neighbors.  The entire international community rejects. China’s domestic policies are much involved here; can Xi absorb this and still look tough? Absolute repudiation of China’s arrogating claims.
China has had a bad couple of months in the region – a horrific 2016: when it chooses to embrace and contribute  to the intl community. It prospers.  When it tries to bully neighbors and ignore intl law, it fails.  The presence of a US carrier there has been salutary.   This is not the end of the Nine-Dash Line; in the years ahead, what will happen to the claim?  Costly for China to disavow its position; if it ignores the court, a risk that he Philippines could try to undercut its own position to gain a little short-term benefit from China. Not too good for Philippines. We also need to prevent China from bldg. a Scarborough Shoal outpost.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-vietnam-chinese-vessels-sank-fishing-boat-40509164   ;  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-13/taiwan-sends-frigate-to-south-china-sea-in-rebuke-against-hague
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Gordon Chang, in re:  China invaded Tibet; there was resistance. The leadership had to escape to northern India.   China has rewritten history entirely: what conquest? “The Tibetan people are happy and getting happier”; China has just organized a  forum focused on entrepreneurship.  As though Tibetan people don't care for His Holiness the Dalai Lama!  Chinese been running a brutal rule in Tibet; now they even have have foreigners participating – including the Asia Society — helping Beijing 
A Russian, and even the VP of the US-Asia Society, have spoken favorably of China’s bloodthirsty rule. Beijing knows it's not a legitimate government and is desperate to achieve it.  “Disposable income of Tibetans has increased” –the same case the Communist Party used on Chinese people thirty years ago when it traded economy for liberty.
Every Tibetan would gladly throw away all traces of Han China to get their freedom back.
https://triciakehoe.com/2016/07/11/day-17-an-update-from-pema-tseden/
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-07/10/c_135501689.htm
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 1, Block C: David Feith, WSJ Hong Kong, in re:  . . . At the top  of HK bz community are the “tycoons,” who’ve fallen in line with the CCP. This court decision is reputational, since the court has no ability to enforce.   . . . Every time Xi attaches his name to more aggression, it becomes harder to find an off-ramp. This constitutes a danger to the entire region.  Recent rumors of Li Kai-chung, premier of China and No. 2 on the Standing Committee, losing his position.  Have to operate less on consensus and be more a  was an ASEAN conference held in Kunming; a paper written condemning the tensions in the South China Sea; Beijing demanded it be withdrawn; Malaysia leaked he paper so the world would know what was going on.   Cambodia and Laos are able to block moves critical of China; ASEAN may have to quite operating ion consensus and change to more ad hoc. “Chinese proverb: ‘Wait, there’s anew American president in 117 days; challenge him or her.’”  In September, China hosts a meeting in Hangzhou.
Editorial: The Lesson of ‘Pokémon Go’   Nintendo breaks out of its comfort zone and scores a hit for Japan Inc.  Nintendo shares soared 25% Monday on the strength of Pokémon Go, the cellphone game released last week that has millions of Americans chasing virtual cartoon characters around their homes, neighborhoods and vacation spots. Added to Friday’s 9% stock jump, this boosts the struggling Japanese firm’s market value by $7.5 billion—a turn of corporate fortune with lessons for Japan Inc.  http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-china-sea-verdict-1468343029
Editorial: South China Sea Verdict  A U.N. ruling means nothing if free nations won’t enforce it.
A United Nations tribunal ruled Tuesday that China’s sovereignty claims over the South China Sea, and its aggressive attempts to enforce them, violate international law. This is a necessary rebuke to Beijing, but it comes with no enforcement measures and Chinese leaders have rejected it. So its effect will depend on how China’s neighbors and the United States respond. International norms can’t survive without democracies willing to defend them.
China’s record in the South China Sea belies its promises to pursue a “peaceful rise.” By asserting “indisputable sovereignty” over an area larger than the Mediterranean
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Rick Fisher,  Anti-Access Area of Denial, a 21st Century warfighting concept. A missile; China has it, also called the Carrier-Killer and the Guam-Killer (DF 26; 400 km range). To counter it, need a Cruise missile –which would go against a treaty the US has with Russia.  By 2020, a multiple-theater long-range bomber; it’ll all cone together then, US entering late.  US dvpt the Pershing @ in th 1980s; China bought it from US Army bases, dvpd a weapon that threatens the Asian balance of power. We’ve chosen to use or surface-to-air missiles in dual-purpose. Range does not yet violate he INF treaty,  Russia wants theater-range missiles, too, being afraid of China and its missiles. We’re in a corner of our own design, not defending ourselves.   Russia and China wont have an incentive to talk to us till we start bldg. again.  Chief of Naval Operations: Maybe AAAD missiles aren't quite as effective as we think? China has enough satellites, elint, everything, to follow US activities, cell phones.  Kido Batai – we knew all about it and lost contact for just a few days . . .
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Chris Harmer, senior military analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, in re: The US president wil meet a South China Sea challenge that has no answer.   Aggression, aggravation, envtl destruction, and ignoring intl law: a rebuke, condemnation shaming f the ORC for its militarization of shoals, rocks, islands. It says that Chinese foreign policy of he last years is unacceptable  At he Court, it lost every point but one –the smallest possible rock. China is reeling, we can see in its responses.  Chinese ambassadors worldwide have gone ballistic.  Court has no enforcement; the US happens to have a navy at hand. We do nt have the assets to deal with this, asp the ADIZ: park a battle carrier strike group in ht middle. But today the Navy os numerically smaller than adt any time since hre 1930s.  We lack speacwr throw weight, and a lot of ships suffereing under deferred maintenance; and wars in Iraq nd Syria.  The PRC army/nave y sees this and are belligerent.   Reagan, a Nimitz-class carrier is there, but we need at least two, maybe three in East Asia as Chinese military grows so much bigger.    To meet that, only was is with our own strike force China will occupy the sea unless we're there to stop them.   Note also Japanese, Indian and Australian navies – as long as all those come along, Right now the US is widely disrespected and seen as weak.  Will follow only if the US lead s from the front. If we give an inch, China will take the whole South China Sea – Japan wonders, are we better off working with the US or making a deal with China??
Philippines, Japan hold maritime drill post-South China Sea ruling
Beijing responded on Wednesday by releasing a White Paper that justifies China's position on the South China Sea  The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) on Wednesday conducted a joint maritime exercise with the Japan Coast Guard in the vicinity of Manila Bay, just one day after the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague ruled in favour of the Philippines over its South China Sea dispute with China.
The agencies deployed vessels including an oil tanker, rigid hull inflatable boat and a helicopter to carry out drills during the sixth Joint Maritime Law Enforcement (MARLEN) Exercise, including mock capture and arrests of pirates, Efe news reported.
Foreign observers from Malaysia, Australia and the US were present at the exercise, which was focused on combating piracy and armed robbery at sea and aimed to boost the capabilities of both sides, said the Philippine Information Agency in a statement. 
http://www.business-standard.com/article/international/philippines-japan-hold-maritime-drill-post-south-china-sea-ruling-116071300719_1.html
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-we-could-declare-air-defense-zone-over-disputed-sea-n608391
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Bruce Klingner, senior research Fellow, Northeast Asia at The Heritage Foundation, in re: Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAD) missile system.  China upset because they see it as part of the US long-term plant to contain China, when in fact it’s distinctly defensive (for use in defending against North Korea).  South Korea’s president went to last year’s Chinese military parade.   Last week ROK announced deployment of THAD; it's not a break ‘twixt ROK and China, it's a change in course.   Pres Pak used a lot of political capital to befriend China – the last country to invade ROK – but China did not reciprocate, sent envoys to DPRK, and Xi refused to accept a phone call from Pres Pak for a month!  Current Chinese diplomacy is become ham-handed; shoots itself in its own feet – both feet, with South China Sea and North Korea.   South Korea has  a peacenik audience; but 70% of them favor THAD. US has pledged 28,000 sons and daughters to protect South Korea.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2016/0711/North-Korea-promises-physical-response-to-THAAD-deployment<http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2016/0711/North-Korea-promises-physical-response-to-THAAD-deployment>
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-usa-northkorea-idUSKCN0ZQ107<http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-usa-northkorea-idUSKCN0ZQ107>
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Aaron Klein, Middle East Bureau Chief, Breitbart, in re:
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Aaron Klein, Middle East Bureau Chief, Breitbart, in re:  
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Washington Times and Fox News, in re:  Here's my thoughts on today's bounty of swing state polls, which our model thought were mostly good news for Trump.   FOX NEWS POLL: Trump trails Clinton in Colorado fxn.ws/29QEEDZ pic.twitter.com/UuwVaZqQLC
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  Monica Crowley, Washington Times and Fox News, in re: Stop Trump Effort Short But in Striking Distance Ahead of Committee Meeting nbcnews.to/29F9Y5Q via @NBCNews   http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0ZS2MO?feedTy...
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Monica Crowley, Washington Times and Fox News, in re:  http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/287630-state-department-will...
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Monica Crowley, Washington Times and Fox News, in re:  Rich Lowry ‪@RichLowry  Pick Newt, and let her rip! politico.com/magazine/story…
 
 
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  Jon Gertner, NYT, in re:  Should the United States Save Tangier Island from Oblivion?  It’s the kind of choice that climate change will be forcing over and over.  (1 of 2)
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Jon Gertner, NYT, in re:  Should the United States Save Tangier Island from Oblivion?  It’s the kind of choice that climate change will be forcing over and over.  (2 of 2)
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Hotel Mars, episode n.  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack, in re:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2016/07/07/saturns-moon-titan-could-have-the-right-chemistry-for-life/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_saturn-sos-1045am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Wednesday   13 July  2016 / Hour 4, Block D:   Hotel Mars, episode n.  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack, in re:  http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/06/29/1606634113.full#aff-4
https://news.google.com/news/story?ncl=d3SAwre1Ah7SH-MrkMeHFvc6fsC-M&q=titan+life&lr=English&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjM3Zb9rvHNAhWQuB4KHZBhCjYQqgIIJjAC