The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 14 September 2016

Air Date: 
September 14, 2016

Photo, left:  portugalglorioso. Lajes, the rather exotic and very beautiful island in the Azores that US defense contractors want the Air Force to abandon so they can make more money by building a brand-new (and poorly sited) air center in the UK.  American taxpayers stand to lose a billion dollars. Amazing: the Pentagon has repeatedly gone before Congress and lied—about cost, about intelligence facilities, about launch times, about the very real and imminent danger of China taking over this critical American base.  
Lajes Field [pronounced: lah-jess] is a multi-use airfield, home to the Portuguese Azores Air Zone Command and to a strategically critical United States Air Force detachment unit (United States Air Forces in Europe - Air Forces Africa). Located 2,290 mi east of New York City and 990 mi west of Lisbon, Portugal, the base sits in a strategic location midway between North America and Europe in the north Atlantic Ocean. 
The problem is that the US Department of Defense is pressing for the American military to abandon its longstanding (since 1943) air base in Lajes— in which the US has invested staggering amounts of money, and which as a result is an exceptionally well-outfitted and capable base—and move all operations to northern Europe.  Best information is that Pentagon big shots are annoyed at the remoteness of Lajes from the fine dining and sophisticated amusements of Paris and London, and so are demanding that Congress allocate a billon dollars or more to close down Lajes and move intelligence and operations to, probably, the UK. Not only would that be an appalling waste of money but it would leave Lajes open to be leased by China, which then would install a satellite-tracking station there, militarize its base on the island, and have both all of Europe and the entire East Coast of the United States within easy range. The plan to abandon Lajes is openly mad. 
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Wikipedia: . . . Another important Cold War operation at Lajes was the U.S. Navy's Naval Air Facility Lajes (NAF Lajes), a tenant activity at the air base. NAF Lajes, and its associated Tactical Support Center (TSC)/Antisubmarine Warfare Operations Center (ASWOC), supported rotational detachments of U.S. Navy P-2 Neptune and later P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft that would track Soviet attack, guided missile, and ballistic missile submarines in the region.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Scott Harold, full political scientist and deputy director, Center for Asia-Pacific Policy at The Rand Corporation, in re: China and Lajes.  Washington decides to move US intell from Lajes, in the Azores (500 mi from Europe, 1500 mi from the continental US) to Europe; China is hovering in Portugal to take over the massive, very-expensively-US-built port in Lajes.  China also is moving its navy toward and into Walvis Bay in Namibia. 
China smilingly describes its interests as benign, commercial, merely investments to improve the welfare of locals who need employment, and the like.  US Congress swallows these tales whole; therefore, “it's incumbent on analysts” to explain in plain and clear language what’s going on so American policymakers can grasp the entire matter.
[Editor’s note: The Pentagon does not swallow these stories and knows well what Chinese military entry into the North and South Atlantic bodes for not only the US but for much of the Western world.  Instead, upper-level planners in the Building have been seduced by the fleshpots and expensive diners in Paris and London, so have pushed very hard to move the base from Lajes to —probably—the UK.]  https://www.commentarymagazine.com/american-society/military/china-in-th...
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Evan Ellis, professor of Latin American Studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, on this: China in Venezuela:  the Chinese Dvpt Bank lent a bit too much to Venezuela, hope that a post-Maduro govt starting in 2017 will have enough pro-market policies in order to pay back much of the money. Beijing learns that not everywhere in the world are governmental officials as protected from the citizenry as they are in the gang-run Chinese Communist regime.   In Caracas, Venezuelans have stopped seeing Chinese guest workers as being other Venezuelans, but as foreigners who probably have more money that one’s own family does.
Guyana: China has lost over $1 billion.  Rosneft competes with China for oil bz n South America, and in Central Asia for other contracts. 
Draw concentric rings around China, and eh assertiveness grows enormously but most strongly nearest home. Consider Djibouti, also Latin America – political leverage to protect Chinese nationals, win contracts, even place pressure on Argentina for support in the South China Sea just as Beijing supported Argentines in the Malvinas (Falklands). Note Bogota,  and Surinam (“Chinese slave labor”), and more.    http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-rethinks-its-alliance-with-reeling-venezuela-1473628506  
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ, in re:  FARC, decades of tantrums, drug-running, mass murder – the Colombian government suddently makes a rush to sign a peace deal with FARC in Havana. Why? A guy in a detention jail in Florida, Andres Felipe Arias.   Detention began on the same day as the FARC deal was signed.   Deal has to be approved by Colombian electorate; if la gente vote No, the Colombian president has to manoeuver oddly.
Uribe was the Colombian president for eight years, during which time he almost entirely defeated the FARC on the battlefield.  One of the charges against Arias is patently bogus; the other one is bad enough that the govt doesn't even argue for it.  Weirdly, in the US what Arias is charged with isn't even a crime. Why is the State Dept making [illegal?] arrests and thrusting Arias into a narcotrafficking prison?
. . . Basically, the Colombian govt is clarifying the fact that anyone domestically who opposes the bad deal will be in deep trouble. The Obama Administration has normalized relations with some rogue regimes and seems now to be doing anything it can to create the appearance of a foreign-policy success —even though it's a really bad deal for Colombians. Who in fact have in place a strong opposition movement, which their president is trying to quash cruelly. 
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ, in re: Venezuela was once the most prosperous, advanced nation in South America. After catastrophic economic policies under Chavez and now Maduro, the populace is starting to starve. Cuba runs intelligence in Venezuela. There’s a large national movement in favor of a recall referendum as sanctioned constitution: if it occurs in the third year of a president’s term, a new election must be called swiftly under current conditions, that winner would not be a member of Maduro’s party, so Maduro and Cuba want to delay the election till the fourth year of the term, after which only the vice president would take power until the next, normally scheduled election.
The other day, mobs of Venezuelans chased Maduro through the streets of Margarita Island while banging pots and pans.  All North and South American foreign ministers went to an OAS mtg in Dominican Republic, where the Secy-Genl wanted to make a presentation about massive Venezuelan human rights violations and convey that the recall referendum was highly legit — but the White House refused that and demanded “dialogue.” This in function supported Maduro and the Castros; too late did the White House notice the problem.   Too late now to backtrack.   No US leadership.   The recall referendum was a means to the constitutional, peaceful path, but the Obama Adm has turned its back on that; at some point the populace will explode and there’ll be violence.  The Cuban regime has always seen its job to be to promote revolution and violence where it could; and the long-term plan to conquer other countries is still much in place. In Bolivia, the govt is deeply involved  in selling cocaine, as is the FARC in Colombia. Those oceans of cash have kept these movements alive. The White House is abysmally naïve about what’s actually going on.  Mr Obama apparently is driving toward a legacy – in this instance, it would be a shameful legacy.
Long Arm of the Castro Regime in Mianmi, Bogota, & Caracas. Mary Anastasia O’Grady, @WSJOpinion.   Mr. Arias was Colombian minister of agriculture until February 2009, when he resigned to run for the Conservative Party nomination for president in 2010. The UCLA-trained economist was widely viewed as outgoing President Álvaro Uribe ’s favorite to succeed him. That made his odds in the general election very good.
It wasn’t to be. Mr. Arias was taken out of the running by trumped-up corruption charges, first in the media and later pressed by two notoriously hard-left attorneys general. He spent three years in the Kafkaesque Colombian judicial system fighting those charges, which were heard by the Supreme Court. In 2014 he fled to the U.S. to request asylum. Colombia’s high court subsequently pronounced him guilty in absentia, fined him the equivalent of more than $8 million and sentenced him to 17 years in prison.
Mr. Arias’s asylum application is still pending but on Aug. 24, U.S. marshals in Miami detained him on a Colombian extradition request, despite the dubious process that led to his conviction. The Colombian Supreme Court vote was 8-1 against Mr. Arias, and the dissenter cited lack of due process.   http://www.wsj.com/articles/takedown-of-a-candidate-bogota-style-1473630721?tesla=y
President Nicolás Maduro, who took power in 2013 after the death of Hugo Chávez, would certainly be recalled in a fair vote. Venezuela has triple-digit inflation; shortages of food, medicine and basic household products; and a frightening crime wave. On a Sept. 2 tour of government housing projects in a low-income neighborhood on Margarita Island, Mr. Maduro was chased through the streets by a jeering mob clanging empty pots and pans. A video of the humiliating incident went viral.  http://www.wsj.com/articles/will-obama-abandon-venezuela-1473722710?mod=...
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Bruce Bechtol, professor at Angelo State University and author of North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era, on this:  North Korea’s recent fifth nuclear test was the largest ever. Had that device been on a NoDong missile and hit Tokyo, it would have killed about 80,000 people. The fifth test was certainly to analyze the data.  Can carry bombs now as far a Guam, and TaePoDong can go farther.
If the DPRK does a sixth test soon, in some weeks, it’ll be a sign that it has no intention of quelling its nuclear intentions
In the Blue House, Pres Pak of South Korea said: We have the capability and the will to destroy North Korea if we believe that Pyongyang intends to nuke South Korea. Does Kim Jong-eun have the  intellectual capacity to understand that a pre-emptive strike may be sent to save South Korea? This is completely unprecedented.    Two US [nuclear-capable] B1 bombers flew from Guam to fly over a South Korean air base, then back to Guam.  This probably was a message to South Korea to show that the US will protect them.
Submarine-launched ballistic missile tested: bears a strong resemblance (correx: is identical) to a Chinese missile.  China is trading SLBMs?  Equivalent of the Chinese JL1, which is nuclear-capable.  DPRK might have bought it from a rogue Chinese company, or from a third party to whom Beijing had sold  it – Pakistan or Iran.  Also, there’s a huge armed forces black market.  —Disagree, not exactly: anything emanating from China was known and approved by Beijing.  In 2002, we saw that DPRK had received centrifuges and other eqpt from Pakistan flown by US-made aircraft that were refuelled in China.  
Note to Washington: do not wait to be attacked by a  nuclear weapon. Act first.   http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/north-korea-produce-20-nuclear-bombs-experts-160914045813448.html
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Nitin Gokhale, former anchor at New Delhi Television and now an independent security analyst, in re:  When Modi went to the G20 in China, he first stopped off in Vietnam and had photos of the Vietnamese PM and Modi amiably and pacifically feeding fish. India has extended a  $500 mil credit to Vietnam for mil purchases.  China quite unhappy.   Meanwhile, 200 US soldiers are in northern India, training against any possible Chinese invasion, although the PLA made deep incursions into India in July.  Also incursions into Ladakh and the Indian northeast.  Signals that India and the US will collaborate in protection. Indian troops across the three services do more exercises with the US than with any other country.  This is a big paradigm-shift. Indian strategic community and media are clear that India and Vietnam need to cooperate more.   Cruise missile, j/v with India and Russia, will come to light in the coming months.  Perhaps the first client will be Vietnam. It's not immediately nuclear capable, but has a range of 200 km and could if needed be outfitted with nukes.   http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/6435-india-us-will-hold-military-exercises-near-china-border
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Richard Fisher, Jr. Senior Fellow, Asian Military Affairs, Intl Assessment & Strategy Center, in re:  Lajes was and remains a very important way-point between the US and the Middle East and other regions. Has been of critical military importance to the US. China is searching for more-secure air-access points and points from which to track ground-based space-control systems. China also endeavoring to move into Seychelles, Maldives, and once had a station in Kiribas; and there wasa  brief rumor that Venezuela would sell Blanquilla Island [between Curacao and Grenada]to help pay its debts.
Lajes is closer to DC and New York than Pearl Harbor is to Tokyo; frther, it has a  2300-foot runway.  It indeed is a threat to the US if China establishes an outpost in the central Atlantic.   Agree; probably will be a duel use base: start with commercial traffic en route to Latin America (to increase political and military influence there).  Expect military projection into the Atlantic and Latin America. The US could prevent this merely by maintaining the Lajes base – but the Pentagon seems determined to take Lajes off the map. Why aren’t we extremely worried? China has been in Cuba for a long time; also the Bolivian alliance; yet our leaders say not a sound.  We urgently need US leadership.
China is militarizing islands around the South and East China Seas; here, in Lajes, China would seek to deny access to US aircraft and navy ships. If China gets a contract to manage the port, then the US wouldn't dare to enter an intell trap. Eventually, China will make military use of the bases; could install missiles swiftly, Note China working with Ukraine (Antonov 225s); power projection into the Indian Ocean, North Atlantic, South Pacific,  all part of a larger agenda. This is the New Cold War challenge: when America recedes, China takes over.  https://www.commentarymagazine.com/american-society/military/china-in-th...
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Mark A Hoffman, UMKC School of Medicine, Department of Biomedical & Health Informatics; Childen’s Mercy Hospital, chief research officer, and Kansas City; in re: ARVR:  In Science magazine, how to take research from the laboratory into wide use.
Microsoft Hololens Development Edition Microsoft Corporation $3000. A visorlike device on your head, look through visor to see holographic images; also has audio. The device is light and comfortable.   At Case Western Reserve, an anatomy trainer was developed.  Three-dimensional thinking for totally new ways of educating students.  Could create a tutorial highlighting different organs, for example; a strong interactive element.  Also has skype capabilities!  Can have a collective conversation over a vast area.  Think: telemedicine.  Imagine a resident at a remote clinic who needs to consult with a specialist; can walk around the patient and everything be seen by the specialist. Further, the expert can annotate the image with Xs and arrows to direct the intern toward certain areas. 
Visualizing biological molecules, incl proteins. I intend to pull three-dimensional protein structures into the Hololens.  Proteins mediate many activities of he body, AS we educate clinicians about where the drug molecule binds to a protein, can  see inside activities. Senior hospital leadership is very supportive.  See:  Microsoft Hololens!
Science  26 Aug 2016: Vol. 353, Issue 6302, pp. 876 ; DOI: 10.1126/science.aah5394.  Most structures studied by science exist in three dimensions: molecules, organisms, ecosystems, galaxies. Flat-screen visualizations of these entities limit our understanding and experience of the objects and interactions that we study. Likewise, flat-screen–based video communication constrains our ability to interact with remote colleagues and collaborators. The Microsoft Hololens Development Edition, released on 30 March 2016, is a holographic platform that demonstrates the potential to enhance scientific understanding, education, and collaboration by transforming our interactions with three-dimensional representations and with one another.  http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6302/876.full
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  James Taranto, WSJ editorial board  & Best of the Web; in re: The Deplorables, esp David Duke, a useful character from the Twentieth Century.  Is he the main deplorable?  I think not. I think it's not only hurtful to Mrs Clinton’s campaign but constitutes an important cultural moment, he was trying to tie many Trump supporters in with the Klan leader David Duke.  Duke hasn't been much since 1981, although he left pulls him out sporadically.   The people Mrs C deplores have now been given a new badge of identity .  You'd have to be at least forty now to recognize Duke’s name; he’s a dinosaur. 
Wolf Blitzer asked Pence, Don't you think Duke is a deplorable?  Pence: I don’t want to get in to name-calling. He was refusing to call the “deplorables” David Duke-like.  . . . opened Mrs C to the press because the polls were about to close just then.  . . . The other basket: I think they she’s looing for the other basket to come over to her side, since it (Republicans?) are uncomfortable with Trump. Not – she’s basically breaking white, working-class voters into two groups: the “pitiables” (Obama’s bitter clingers) vs the racist, xenophobic “deplorables.”  Not good to have said, “They’re irredeemable and fortunately not part of America”!  [Yike. An ideological test for American citizens.]  This was at an LGBT gala for Mrs Clinton in lower Manhattan. Oh – I see it was all clumsy, no intentionality in it.  
The Dead Zone Kaine for president? Mrs. Clinton calls in sick.   http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-dead-zone-1473790527   /  America, Love It or Weave It   What kind of “basket” does Hillary have in mind?
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  James Taranto, WSJ editorial board  & Best of the Web; in re: Breakout of pneumonia at Clinton Brooklyn HQ. No, I’m not confident that we've heard the whole story; these people lie all the  time.  Also, odd lack of transparency.  Mr Clinton parses words even now.  It confounds me.  If she were to lose, I'd say, this is what happens when you impose a candidate on a party because of family connections rather than putting her or him through a normal, public process. She’s beret of political skills, It goes beyond lack of transparency, it's thuggish behavior toward anyone who asks questions. She had an interminable coughing fit; when anyone asked questions, the Clinton camp accused the questioner of conspiratology. As she left Chelsea’s home she hugged a small child – thus exposing the child to pneumonia simply for a photo op. 
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  The present US election campaign. http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/poll-portman-expands-his-lead
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: The present US election campaign. https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-releases-more-medical-info-after-pneumonia-diagnosis-205617390.html
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  Bush, by Jean Edward Smith (1 of 4)
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Bush, by Jean Edward Smith (2 of 4)
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 4, Block C:  Bush, by Jean Edward Smith (3 of 4)
Wednesday   14 September 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:  Bush, by Jean Edward Smith (4 of 4)