The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 15 April 2015

Air Date: 
April 15, 2015

Photo, left: Chinese-made structures stand on the Johnson Reef, called mabini by the Philippines and chi-gua by China, in the Spratly Islands in South China Sea. China is creating a “great wall of sand” as it takes land in the disputed South China Sea, and could be preparing to launch further grabs of territory, according to the commander of the US’s navy in the area.  Admiral Harry Harris, J,r told a naval security conference in Australia that “China is building artificial land by pumping sand on to live coral reefs — some of them submerged — and paving over them with concrete. China has now created over 4 square kilometers [1.5 square miles] of artificial landmass”.
The new land is next to some of the most beautiful natural islands in the world, but "in sharp contrast, China is creating a great wall of sand with dredges and bulldozers over the course of months," Harris said. 
Disputes in the South China Sea about territory were “increasing regional tensions and the potential for miscalculation,” Harris said. The region is claimed by a number of countries. China claims all of the land there, and has justified previous reclamation on that basis. Those claims have meant it has run into difficulties with other countries that also say parts of the area belong to them.  The US and other countries are increasingly worried that China could begin to claim more of the area using its military. Experts are concerned that the reclamation projects — which are host to buildings and runways — could be used to store military equipment and weapons to enforce China’s claim in the region.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-host: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, & Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
Hour One
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Charles Burton, professor at Brock University, in re: China frees 5 women's rights activists,  especially why Beijing saw these women as a threat. (GC: I gave a talk today on Ford Island in Hawaii; Japan is an emotional topic; yes, China today is seen as reminiscent of Japan a century ago.) China has just released five persecuted women.: from 25 to 233 years old and educated; having a strong sense of social justice, focus on women's rights. Were organizing a protest movement to oppose the increasing problem of sexual harassment on Beijing public transport.  Instead f helping them, the govt arrested them and the computers removed Xi Jinping refuses any civil-society organization that could mobilize Threat to he state?  They now build two men's toilets to one women's toilet. The govt's All-China Women's Organization is wholly ineffective in representing . Basically, this is suppression of all non-Communist groups. The Public Security Agency will take over watching women's groups.
Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block B:  James Holmes, professor of strategy at the Naval War College and a former surface warfare officer, in re: Revised defense rules would give Japan new powers to aid U.S. military Alfred Mahan a hundred years later is studied by the PLA Navy.  Ash Carter on recent Asia tour, in Japan with Abe: "US is looking for a more secure mutual defense.  Eli __ reports that by design the US-Japan alliance since 1950 has been unequal – fears that Japan would re-arm itself, so US paid for its defense. US now under force-level and financial stress.  China has legitimized Japan's rise in the region. Asians have long historical memories, incl the rape of Nanjing, but China hands everyone a measuring stick, and currently it looks a whole lot less peaceful than Japan does.  Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is forbidden even to help the US in defending Japan; need to let cruisers and missile defense jump in to help in case the US is attacked. This includes cyber!  Japan seems to want to help the US; South Korea, not so much. Going different directions?   The two have a disastrous past, as Japan tried to obliterate Korea.  Also geographic: Korea is a half-island attached to the Mainland and China's increased aggression ought to send up more warning signals.
Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Rand Simberg: President of Interglobal Space Lines, Inc., a commercial space entrepreneurial company and consultancy, specializing in low-cost space access and tourism; in re: SpaceX (President Gwynne Shotwell) launch and landing attempt yesterday and the new ULA announcement about Vulcan.  See: parabolicarc.com  .. . .  cam e down at exactly the right speed, but small issues, such as wind, foiled perfection in landing. LockeedMartin and Boeing join: "Cannot throw the engines any more – we'll parachute the engines out and capture them with helicopters." I'm very  impressed with Tory Bruno, who took over ULA, sees that t industry is being revolutionized by Elon Musk; is all onboard, recognizes the need for competition. ACES – advanced cryogenic evolved stage -  refuellable, might become a tug.  Space technology was stuck in the 1960s for decades; Elon Musk comes in, says "I want to get to Mars" – and shakes up the whole industry.
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block D: Michael Auslin, Director of Japan Studies, AEI, in re:  Ash Carter in Japan; plus South China Sea. reason to worry about the power shifts. In DC, has been consumed for 15 years by concerns abut terrorism Asian increase in trend s ahs not been dramatic, but people suddenly started to wake up. We, however, have been worried for a while. "The rise of the revisionist powers" – China, Turkey, Iran – all have benefitted from the new (constructed) intl order after WWI, and now are dissatisfied with the rules, not norms inherent to their societies. I call it "aggressive opportunism."  Not necessarily confront us directly.  China's building islands in the South China Sea, as aircraft carriers, The Western aircraft carrier there is  called Taiwan?  -- actually, more, Japan (we have troops there and bases; Japanese leaders have called themselves "the unsinkable aircraft carrier"). Taiwan is the only ethnically Chinese nation in the world that's democratic. US needs to keep Taiwan included in the family f democratic nations.
Hour Two
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Stephen Yates, chairman of the Idaho Republican Party, CEO of D.C. International Advisory, and former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, in re: . . . China has had a methodical approach in building its capabilities;  . . .  World falling apart: Ukraine, China, others – if they’re not coordinating their deeds, at least it's simultaneous. Their common objective is to disrupt the American system of alliances, and the current Administration has helped.  In the broader Middle East, how many of our allies feel safe?  Does Pres Obama see the integration of the enemies?  He sees that thinking as outmoded, Cold War or W Bush thinking, He's sure that he can find accommodation with Iran, China, North Korea.  . . .  He sees he world as it no longer is. We need to adjust our thinking to how it's running at this moment. These challenges are at least as difficult as those of the USSR were, but [in a different form, not as {coalesced}]. Rip van DC, suddenly awakening?   [Kinda-sorta.] Rep Cox, natl security report; effort to recalibrate our approach to China, but then that radically shifted on 9/11.  . . .  Gordon, you're surrounded by the fleet. "Yes. At least they’re starting to talk about this.
  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/02/iran-deal-obama-legacy_n_6996586.html
Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block B: Fraser Howie, co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise, in re:  Q1 numbers, which will be released a few moments ago. "In Q1, China's economy grew 7.0%" –oops.  This number certainly is not equivalent to 7% in a developed country. Underlying: exports-imports, down; electricity, down .1%; construction starts, down; rail transport: down – so what's going up? Only the stock market, being driven by liquidity.  There's too much money in China and not much productive activity, so people put their cash into the market.      Since July of last year, a 100% increase in the mkt.  Fifteen years after WTO entrance, China is in as bad shape as the other countries, starting QE, which will take years to solve.    Rally from 1000 to 6000 from 2000 to 2007, then it fell back. When you see a crash this time, it'll be worse because the leverage is much greater.
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block C: Stuart Leavenworth  李温, Beijing Bureau Chief, McClatchy Newspapers, in re:   The China Digital Times is aimed at the Chinese diaspora and as well as it can penetrates the Chinese Great CyberWall.  From a small cottage in Berkeley,  it publishes a lot of news unavailable elsewhere. Talk to Xiao Chang, adjunct prof at UC Berkeley. Probably Mainland journos leak info to China Digital Times. Has a staff of about six plus a few part-timers. Typical governmental posting: "Do not place news of Fujian chemical plant fire and explosion in a lead position on websites." recently, report on "China great cannon" – to shut down mirror sites that let Chinese netizens evade the firewall. One is out of San Francisco; now, cyber attacks on the mirror sites.  Six people on China Digital Times often outwit the hundred thousand government spies and ham-handed mediacrats.  The Beijing govt is so worried about the Internet- the greatest threat to the Communist Party and its existence. How to use CDT?  To websites, one in English, one in Chinese.  Can use it as a central aggregator of news across China; they do terrific work of keeping an eye on things, also decipher code words that netizens use to get around censorship – use poetic & double-entendre to evade.  Good to read CDT several times a day.
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block D: Jeremy Page 裴杰 , Wall Street Journal Beijing, in re: Charting the expansion of China's navy  http://t.co/9bXHtdM1jh China's LAN goes from being a coastal navy to global. Been going on for years- the first plans were in the 1980s; last few years shipbuilding moving at surprising speed and ships being deployed father and farther for China's coast.  Also has supersonic Cruise missiles against ships; the US has nothing to stop these? Has a range of countermeasures, but if China threw antiship plus Cruise plus jammers all at once, could [in effect, freeze] US capability.  While the PLAN core mission has been coastal defense, conception of defense has expanded. Their defensive layers are the rough areas in which China would seek to deploy various kinds of ships and subs. Also, into Pacific and Indian Ocean to protect China's growing economic interest, shipping lanes.  Note: China in the South Atlantic – Walvis Bay and probably Argentina.  "I'm not yet convinced that China is in a position to threaten the US from any of these ports, which are not yet bases."  And he "great Wall of Sand" – building islands among the Spratleys, etc. "Reclaimed land." (hah)
Original Tweet: https://twitter.com/Rory_Medcalf/status/587067352048476160
Hour Three
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block A:   Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Party role reversal? Republicans want to fall in love, Democrats are told to fall in line.   Marco Rubio kicks off his presidential campaign The Florida senator made a very strong case for his candidacy.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/apr/13/marco-rubio-launches-2016-white-house-bid-with-ins/
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block C: Dr. David H Grinspoon, Astrobiology chair, Library of Congress; astrobiology curator, Denver Museum of Nature & Science, in re: http://www.space.com/29110-mystery-bright-spots-ceres-dawn-maps.html
http://www.sci-news.com/space/science-curiosity-calcium-perchlorate-brines-gale-crater-mars-02691.html
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block D:  Francis Rose, Federal News Radio, in re: 
Tax-Day Hearing Comes As VA Prepares to Ask Congress for $930 Million Bail-Out   The House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs will hold a hearing on Wednesday, April 15, 2015, at 10:30 AM in room 334 of the Cannon House Office Building to examine VA’s handling of the replacement Denver VA medical center, which is more than $1 billion over budget.  The purpose of this hearing is to address the continued mismanagement, delays and cost overruns associated with the Denver project, where the Civilian Board of Contract Appeals recently found VA in breach of contract with its prime contracting vendor, creating a work stoppage on the project.   The original cost of the Denver project was $328 million, but VA announced March 17 the cost had ballooned to $1.73 billion. VA has spent nearly all of the money allotted for construction, which was supposed to have been completed in February of 2014yet the project is not even close to complete.
VA’s construction mismanagement problems are not limited to the Denver VAMC. GAO documented in 2013 how construction projects in Denver and other locations, including Las Vegas, New Orleans and Orlando, Fla., have been plagued by years long delays and cost overruns totaling nearly $1.5 billion. VA hasn’t held a single senior construction executive accountable for any of these failures. Before VA could even figure out what went wrong in Denver, construction chief Glenn Haggstrom retired with full benefits March 25. Prior to Haggstrom’s retirement, VA made no effort to discipline him. Instead it rewarded him with nearly $64,000 in bonuses. At a May 7, 2013, House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs hearing, Haggstrom could not even explain what he did to earn his bonuses.
The purpose of this hearing is to examine what VA is doing to stop the Denver project’s legacy of mismanagement and waste, discuss the department’s plan ahead and determine who – if anyone – has been held accountable.
The following event is open to the press:
WHO:       House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs
WHAT:    “Denver VA Medical Center: Constructing a Way Forward
WHEN:    10:30 AM, Wednesday, April 15, 2015
WHERE:  334 Cannon House Office Building and streaming at veterans.house.gov
Hour Four
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block A: Lincoln's Selected Writings Norton Critical EditionsAbraham Lincoln; edited by David S. Reynolds, City University of New York Graduate Center (1 of 4)
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block B: Lincoln's Selected Writings Norton Critical EditionsAbraham Lincoln; edited by David S. Reynolds, City University of New York Graduate Center (2 of 4)
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block C: Lincoln's Selected Writings Norton Critical EditionsAbraham Lincoln; edited by David S. Reynolds, City University of New York Graduate Center (3 of 4)
 Wednesday 15 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block D: Lincoln's Selected Writings Norton Critical EditionsAbraham Lincoln; edited by David S. Reynolds, City University of New York Graduate Center (4 of 4)