The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 16 March 2016

Air Date: 
March 16, 2016

Photo, left:  Geostrategic theory:  Great Game political cartoon from 1878 depicting the Afghan Emir Sher Ali with his "friends," the Russian Bear and British Lion.  Another close squeak in the grinding political tectonic plates ‘twixt Mackinder’s Heartland World Island and the “offshore islands.” 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block A:  Alan Tonelson, independent economic policy analyst; RealityChek blog and tweets at @AlanTonelson,   in re:  Chinese investment firm AnBang (govt connected, of course) buys the massive Starwood hotel chain*. . . . China is an investor that intends to undermine the US.  “When trade doesn’t cross borders, armies do” – yet despite a lot of trade, US-China relations are on a knife-edge.   US was always a high-tariff country, for 150 years, and it worked then, although things have changed.  The US wins at trade two ways: Adam Smith, et al., and also by making sacrifices in trade deals in order to keep the world system intact. Esp from WWII through the mid-1970s.  However, u can have to much of a good thing. If the trade policies drain mores strength than they add, then the world system suffers. The growth of the US trade deficit: has cut this sluggish recovery’s rate of growth by 20% in real terms.   . .  .[sputter] Alan has a one-note band and we keep hearing  it – he’s absolutely right on China, “which is the fastest-growing economy in the world” – “No longer, Alan!” “I actually think it is.” [deep sigh] “Alan and Gordon, together again.”
* China's Anbang Insurance Group Co has challenged Marriott International Inc's (MAR.O) merger with U.S. hotel operator Starwood with a $12.8 billion cash offer, burnishing its credentials as one of China's top corporate acquirers. The non-binding bid, unveiled on Monday, just days after Anbang agreed to acquire Strategic Hotels & Resorts Inc from buyout firm Blackstone Group LP (BX.N) for $6.5 billion, would represent by far the biggest Chinese investment in U.S. real estate assets. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-starwood-hotels-m-a-consortium-idUSKCN0WG14D   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-19/china-tops-foreign-investors-drawing-u-s-m-a-security-reviews
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Kelley Currie, senior fellow with the Project 2049 Institute, in re:  In Burma, U Htin Kyaw [oo  tin jaw], long-term colleague and family friend of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, chosen by the junta to be president and probably to channel Suu Kyi’s instructions.  Broad-based sanctions vs Burma gone since 2013; remain focussed sanctions anent drug trafficking, trade with N Korea or human-rights abuses. Also jade, gems, and – formerly – timber.   Why allow old-growth forests to be clear-cut??   Meanwhile Ben Rhodes tweeted. WH gave a way to much too soon – and lifted pressure on the military junta too soon, thus allowing it to deny Suu Kyi her proper, elected position as president. . . . Look for possible coming political and human rights abuses. http://time.com/4258655/htin-kyaw-burma-myanmar-president-aung-san-suu-kyi/
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Michael Auslin, AEI, in re:  Aggression in East Asia, esp South China Sea.  China Rising in the SCS. 
Beijing’s island-building and territorial assertions in the South China Sea are fueling a sense of “might makes right” in the region that threatens to go beyond military concerns and do economic damage, the head of the U.S. Pacific Fleet said Wednesday.
Adm. Scott Swift, speaking at a security conference in the Australian capital, said that by reinterpreting international law to justify actions in the South China Sea, China—or any other nation making similar territorial claims—was undermining global rules of behavior. The resulting unpredictability could spill over to cast a chill on commercial activities in the region. “Not only increases uncertainty  in Law of the Sea and encourages [neighbors] to transfer wealth to military expenditures” — i.e., a regional arms race.”  US Adm policy causing radical diminution of US influence in the East. 
. . . David Ignatius in WaPo finally writes about this.  A real change is there’s a new PACOM [pron: pay-com]  ADIZ – air defense identification zone: Paracels and Spratlys – underground bunkers, missile,  . .  .commander no longer soft – Harry Harris pushing Obama Adm in a much better direction.   China establishes an ADIZ, US sends in planes, China denies?  Not really.  In South China Sea, islands’s configuration and ability for huge emplacement is more dangerous. Main object is to force local countries o change their behavior, and they haven't sophisticated air forces.  The danger is that the US might be able to fly but the other countries, whose territory this is, may not be able to overfly. 
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Michael Auslin, AEI, in re:  Aggression in East Asia, esp South China Sea. Japan Rising: Sino-Japanese III under way.   Halford Mackinder [pron: MAC-inder], the Rimlands. [See: The Geographical Pivot of History  a geostrategic theory, also known as Heartland Theory. "The Geographical Pivot of History" was an article submitted by Halford John Mackinder in 1904 to the Royal Geographical Society that advanced his Heartland Theory. In this article, Mackinder extended the scope of geopolitical analysis to encompass the entire globe.     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History] 
The Rimlands – incl cities  along the littoral - are where production and trade are generated . . . Nicholas John Spikeman (Yale, 1940s) argued also that  . .  . the ”inner seas” are central, also part of the global commons.  Seas: Mahan. Integrated strategic space.  Naval arms race, also cyber and space races; Russia and China.  To control the skies above and cyber in and out . . . How you have to protect all of it, nit just bits of it.  Before Xi Jinping: Chinese confidence is built on assurance that all of this is China’s.  China has a form of govt that permits it to [take over].  “The guns are out, gentlemen.”
In the March/April edition of Foreign Affairs, Auslin traces the origins of "Japan’s new realism" and discuss Tokyo's increasingly active security and defense policies in the Indo-Pacific. At War on the Rocks, I propose an integrated approach to addressing challenges in East Asia, in "Asia’s Mediterranean: Strategy, geopolitics, and risk in the seas of the Indo-Pacific." As always, I look forward to your comments and feedback.
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Harry Kazianis, senior fellow for Defense Policy at the Center for the National Interest, in re: China: Punch first, grab everything you can, then see if anyone shows up to take it away.   Philippines took China to the Intl Court in the Hague, which China wholly rejects. Now Shinjo Abe uses lawfare against China to marshall public opinion. Smart move.  It's widely thought that Philippines have a strong case and may win; wonder of other ASEAN countries might start filing claims, even including Vietnam.  A good asymmetric strategy.  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china-idUSKCN0WI0LF http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/15/americas/argentina-chinese-fishing-vessel/index.html
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:   Peter Navarro, professor at the University of California, Irvine, author of Crouching Tiger: What China's Militarism Means for the World, and maker of a documentary of the same name, in re:  China as a predator state – economically and militarily, Cyber attacks to steal trade secrets, copyrights, designs, for China’s advantage in the marketplace.  Chinese deficit of $1 billion a day.  . . .  This all subtracts 1.5% of US GDP annually – over 15 years, about 20 million US jobs.  . . .  PLA coordinate with five year plans to build certain industries [PLA runs cyber theft attacks.]  China stole vastly from military contractors, who figured it out an mounted firewalls; to PLA began to vampirize the subcontractors. This is war.  http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/03/10/crouching_tiger_john_mearsheimer_on_strangling_china_and_the_inevitability_of_war_109127.html
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Josh Rogin,  , in re: Donald Trump and Russia, of which he speaks open-handedly.  Trump organization wants to get along with Russia for 25 years – has been trying to expand its real estate brand into Russia fo multiple projects to partner with Russian oligarch to build, esp in Moscow, Even sent his son. In 2013 nni9nced that he’d bld a tower in Moscow.  Said we shd let Russia bomb ISIS, and let Europe solve eastern Ukraine.  Huge security implications for the US.  “Russia on the A list for the Trump Organization.”  Trump considers himself an oligarch, cultivates Georgian billionaire and others;  “best friend” has extensive investments in Russia.  Trump constantly criticize Chinese regulatory regime and govt actions; contrast with his favor for Russia and see that there’s a close connection between Trump’s proposed foreign policy and his business interests.  Campaign is funded by his own donations.  What he needs is a position of power to leverage big, big deals.  China could improve its romance with Trump by shovelling money in.
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Lara M. Brown, Director of the Political Management Program, The George Washington University; in re: Prominent Trump supporter: Riots 'aren’t necessarily a bad thing' --Neetzan Zimmerman.  A Tea Party Trump supporter said riots Trump predicted wouldn't necessarily be bad.    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/273278-dems-predict-electoral-disaster-for-gop-under-trump
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Ballot Box  GOP lawmaker: Trump needs to ‘grow up,’ stop attacking Megyn Kelly.  Huizenga said Trump's behavior is unbecoming for a front-runner. (1 of 4)
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Ballot Box   Cruz: Garland a ‘so-called moderate Democrat’ Trump would pick.  "Washingon dealmakers cannot be trusted with such crucial lifetime appointments." (2 of 4)
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Ballot Box Clinton campaign launches three ads in Arizona.  The three ads, which focus on Clinton's position on gun violence, immigration and education, . . .  (3 of 4)
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; (4 of 4)
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  Aaron Klein, Middle East bureau chief, Breitbart; in re:  Risking Iranian Backlash, Hamas Cracks Down on Shi’ite Militia Hamas has succumbed to its supporters’ pressure to crack down on the Iran-backed Al Sabireen militia, despite Hamas’ dependence on Tehran’s financial support.  . . .  Iran created yet another military proxy, al Sabareen, inside  Gaza, to coordinate (so to speak) with Hamas.  Egyptian pressure has obligated Hamas to crack down on al Sabareen, thereby automatically throwing Hamas into direct opposition with its primary sponsor, the Teheran mullahs. 
California May Boycott Companies that Boycott Israel  A group of California lawmakers are pushing efforts to pass legislation that would prevent the Golden State from contracting with companies that refuse to do business with Israel, on the basis of discrimination and antisemitism against the only Jewish state in the world.
Donald Trump Invite Roils Pro-Israel AIPAC Conference The Republican frontrunner, Donald J. Trump, pulled out of next week’s GOP debate in Salt Lake City, prompting its cancellation, so that he could address the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) annual policy conference in Washington. D.C. But many of AIPAC’s pro-Israel activists are upset — so much so, in fact, that organizers have had to remind them to remain polite when he speaks.
Anti-Trump Groups Threaten ‘Largest Civil Disobedience Action of the Century’  With little fanfare and almost no news media attention, some of the same radical groups involved in shutting down Donald Trump’s Chicago rally last week are plotting a mass civil disobedience movement to begin next month.  (1 of 2)
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Aaron Klein, Middle East bureau chief, Breitbart; (2 of 2)
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block C:  Robert Zimmerman,  behind the black, in re: China plans first commercial rocket company  The competition heats up: A Chinese company has announced plans to start a new commercial rocket company to compete for the burgeoning space launch market.
China Sanjiang Space Group Co. is preparing to enter the commercial-rocket business with a launch slated for 2017, Xinhua reported Tuesday, citing the company’s chief engineer Hu Shengyun. Some Internet companies have expressed interest in collaborating on commercial launches, Hu said.
The Kuaizhou-11, translated as “fast vessel,” rocket is being developed by the Fourth Academy of China Aerospace Science & Industry Corp., a major missile supplier to the People’s Liberation Army, according to China Daily.  There is not much information at the link. The rocket was first launched in 2013, but not much has been revealed about it since.
Wednesday   16 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:  Robert Zimmerman,  behind the black, in re:  Akatsuki to finally begin studying Venus   After a five year delay because its initial attempt to enter Venus orbit failed, the Japanese probe Akatsuki is finally about to begin science operations.
Its present orbit is less than ideal, passing 440,000km from the planet at its farthest point. That is roughly five times greater than initially planned and means the orbit time is now nine days. The change in orbit has affected the probe’s observation plan. Of its seven planned missions, Akatsuki will be able to complete only one: taking serial images of clouds. Unfortunately, the probe’s five cameras, each capturing images in different wavelengths, including infrared and ultraviolet, will not be able to provide the same resolution at this greater distance. Observing volcanic eruptions on the Venusian surface may also be difficult.
There is an upside to the situation, however. Takeshi Imamura, an associate professor at JAXA’s Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, says the longer orbital period means the probe will be able to collect longer continuous stretches of data.  Considering everything, it is magnificent that Akatsuki will be able to do any science at Venus at all.
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