Photo, left: Flag of the United Wa State Army (Burmese: ဝပြည်သွေးစည်းညီညွတ်ရေး တပ်မတော်)  သွေးစည်းညီညွတ်ရေး တပ်မတော်) Wǎ liánjūn; abbreviated UWSA and also known as UWS Army, is the military wing of the United Wa State Party (UWSP). It is an ethnic minority army of an estimated 30,000 Wa soldiers of Myanmar's Special Region No. 2 led by Bao Youxiang . The UWSA was formed after the collapse of the Communist Party of Burma in 1989.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, & Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
Hour One
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Rick Fisher, senior fellow on Asian Military Affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: RAND report (mandated by Congress) on Chinese officer corps: promotions bought and sold across the ranks, and the current purge causes problems. More worrisome: PLA is, yes, ready to fight if Nanjing Mil Region unites were ordered to Taiwan, they'd do it.  Yesterday Xi Jinping passed the New Year visiting their latest bomber. RAND report reviews a lot of interesting Chinese writing about their own military, although non-Chinese have quibbles.  However, cyber works irrespective of internal problems.  Anent: readiness of people to obey orders or to participate in skilled training: you may join the PLA after years of indoctrination, then you’re surrounded by people who check constantly to be sure you follow orders.  China likes to choose its wars and start them first.  Is a soldier allowed to show initiative in the heat of combat? For over a decade that's been encouraged.  . . .   Yes, the PLA does have its own princeling faction, but by and large has officers with experience in its last real war (Vietnam) and placed them in the CNC, the commanding heights. 
 
http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/13/asia/china-military-shortcomings/
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 1, Block B: Kelley Currie, senior fellow with the Project 2049 Institute, in re:   Kokang drug lords selling meth. What does it mean to be Burmese? It never got to nation-bldg after independence from Britain after WWI, so there's no real definition otter than the central Burman heartland. The Chinese Communist Party and PLA must be in on the money, too, since it’s on the Chinese border. Kokangs in the 1950s & 1960s was part of CCP, then dropped by Beijing so they moved into newer drugs. There are other businesses up there other than drug trade, although barely legal.  The Burma-China border is quite porous; the Kokang and the Wa [United Wa State Army; ethnically Chinese people on Chinese & Thai borders] speak Chinese, use Chinese characters, se Chinese cell phones, and are largely uncontrolled.  The "anti-corruption" probe is in fact apolitical purge. Cleaning up corruption is low n the list. Note that this is not he International Red Cross, it’s the Burmese Red Cross, thus in no way is independent and usu is part of the Burmese military.  "Eight captured Kokang rebels died of their wounds in custody."   http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/death-toll-rises-in/1662982.html
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Anatoly Zak, Russian SpaceWeb.com & Russia in Space, in re: Russia invented space travel; the US fell behind after the 1970s so the Russians are now critical to US reaching space.  NASA and Roscosmos dominate.  Good idea to contribute a bit to Anatoly since no one else in the US is reporting on this.  Vostochny is a huge project, complex. money issues, falling oil prices to diminish govt revenues ---  a struggle on several fronts.  Giant antennae, not attached to a specific project.  Might be a giant radar,  or powerful comms device. Launch of Condor E mid-2015, a South African project. S Afr oppo figures are asking, What's this for??  But it's very helpful to Russia to have commercial clients. Why does it have a satellite? This one uses radar to produce imagery, all-weather & night or day.  Cd be dual-purpose, civilian and military. Vostochny is a sort of insurance project n case of problems – Ukraine is a good current example; Russia always afraid to lose FSU, and for example lose Baikonur in Kazakhstan. In fact, there were frictions with Nazabayev so Russia is bldg a brand-new launch port in Vostochny, near the Angara River and Lake Baikal.   Russia is supplying the RD-181 engine and Americans are buying it.
1.  Vostochny:  Moment of truth for Vostochny ; Vostochny makes progress in 2014 ; New Soyuz launch system tested
2.  Russian military space: Russia builds giant satellite antenna ; South Africa wants more Kondors?
3.  Angara: Angara's engine gets a job in the US ; Second Angara-5 rocket to fly in 2016
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 1, Block D:  John Bolton, AEI, in re: John Bolton: The-Too Little, Too-Late Presidency Pres Obama thinks he can make a deal on the nuclear program with the ayatollahs, persuade them that the if the US doesn't threaten them they'll give up their nukes.  I think this is an act of appeasement.  In his view of the word, appeasement is the safest course; Neville Chamberlain was a weak man who thought the strong man cd be given bits and piece and would go away. Wrong then and wrong now.  Pres Obama views American power as part of the problem, that we're better off not making a fuss over nukes, or China seizing parts of the South China sea, and all the rest. This drift allows other states to gain the advantage over the US. Consequences will be increasingly visible over time.   Pres Obama acts like a limousine liberal; lives in the world of academe and university students's coffee klatches. 
Hour Two
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Julia Famularo, research affiliate at Project 2049 Institute, in re: Chinese parochial understanding of what is a terrorist; used to say "splittist," but may have retired that anent Uyghurs and Tibetans. Beijing shifts terms often; recently using "Three Evils; ethnic separatism, religious extremism and violent terrorism. Those who place religion above the Communist Party, et al., deemed extremist or terrorist.  Called the Kalachakra a terrorist event!  HH the Dalai Lama has been under fire for years, accuse him of generating self-immolations [which he genuinely does not and couldn't] and he's retired from political life for some years; Beijing still calls him a violent splittist.  Beijing can't understand that Tibetans are self-immolating because of Beijing counterproductive deeds. It demands that it be the highest power in the land, thus are afraid of Catholics, Tibetans Buddhists, and Uyghyurs (who nominally cleave to Islam more than the CCP).  Trying to indoctrinate imams and monks – Beijing is placing police stations inside monasteries.  There are patriotic Muslim, Buddhist and Christian societies that aren’t much persecuted. It’s the independent practicioners who get in trouble.  Beijing has declared war on God, Allah, the Buddhas.  China creates enemies for itself – unforced errors.  Han Chinese see non-Han as  The Other.  Can’t wrap mind around what it means to be Uyghur, Tibetan, et al.
China should do more in global fight against terrorism, says the French ambassador   In the nation's interest to take a more prominent role overseas in combatting the threat of militants, says France's ambassador to Beijing. China should be more involved in the global fight against terrorism as extremist groups and militants are putting more countries security under threat, according to the French ambassador to China. "We need China to be more involved," said Maurice Gourdault-Montagne. "China has been hit by terrorism, so China is part of this big struggle against terrorism." – South China Morning Post.   Do China's New Terrorism Laws Go Too Far?  ;  http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/in-war-on-terror-china-takes-aim-at-tibet/ and the SCMP article below.
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 2, Block B: Charles Ortel, managing director of Newport Value Partners, in re: What deflation does to economies in general, and what China can expect in particular. Deflation – last seen in the US during the great Depression, which was actually the great Deflation. People in despair at how to turn diminishing prices around.  However deflation is now a risk in China.  In Jan, producer price declined by .8%, but consumer price index by 4%.  Too much debt, not enough consumer demand. Need cash to service debt so will cut prices as much as needed to run in place, even if that means losing money. In deflation, borrowers are in trouble because they can’t service heir debts – and China has too much debt.   A barbell economy oof elite and masses. deflating mfr prices but rising food and living prices.  Seems $400 billion let China in 2014.  No virtuous cycle of when people start to invest.  WSJ:  "CPI rose .9% from a year earlier." Govts can intervene – but painfully. Since 2008 decline in benchmark interest rates – that last govts to deal with this will be hurt the most.  End?  Bank run, bank failures, govt failures?  I fear that we've been waiting much too long for creative destruction and will have more than a hangover here.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-not-in-deflation-says-commerce-ministry-2015-02-15-234855914  ;  http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2015/02/06/early-look-deflation-clouds-loom-over-chinas-economy/
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 2, Block C:  Abheek Bhattacharya, Heard on the Street WSJ in Hong Kong, in re:  . . . If you have $600 Bil in assets you're big enough to do anything [in the market]. The rationale that Mao used to build these huge state assets: 
Zhou Yungkang was purged, presumed to bête be the boss of the energy sector.  His supporters were called "the petroleum faction," by which he controlled Szechuan province.   . . . Xi trying to use one more level of control. We saw this in the 1950s, which failed economically.
Modhi: jury's still out on economic success.  Economists have projected for this current FY ending March 2015, said that growth this year was 7.4% - staggering; the fastest-growing major economy in the world.  When India overtakes China, called "the word turned upside-down moment."  It’s already happened. GDP is a nebulous concept; it’s only one number that will never capture all that's going on in a large economy.  We should be looking at a lot more than one number.
China and Oil. China is contemplating a mega-merger of its state oil giants, which, if accomplished, would create one of the biggest and baddest monopolies of all time. It's unclear if this consolidation has been driven by the low oil price, but even if it is, there's hardly any commercial logic here.  But it's important to note how the still-low oil price continues to be an issue. Even Chinese state oil companies are forced to cut spending, though I argue that one of these firms can't get out of the dilemma cheap oil has gotten it into. Nor can the leading oilfield services companies of Asia, the kind that build rigs for oil majors to use.  How China is becoming self-sufficient in scrap metal and why a Japanese firm is a big beneficiary of this trend; how a slowing Chinese market is finally catching up with what used to be the world's most profitable carmaker;  India – That's deservedly come under a lot of scrutiny, because much in the new data is hard to believe. Still, for all the hubbub about new headline growth rates, I think key facets of India's underlying economy -- even as reported by the new data -- actually remain the same. 
And Japanese carmakers.   One clear beneficiary of the low oil price: drivers and the gas-guzzling cars they're now willing to buy. Among the Asian carmakers with a global footprint, Toyota is looking good. Honda, on the other hand, finds itself on the wrong side of both the oil and currency trends of the day.
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 2, Block D: Steven L Herman, Southeast Asia Bureau Chief/Correspondent of Voice of America, in re: Refugees from Burma, Kokang people on the Chinese and Thai borders, with the Myanmar National ___ Army as its militia. Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed concern as thousands enter China. Also, a Red Cross convoy with 100 civilians came under attack. Burmese mil blamed the rebels, but VOA Burma service says that a spokesman from the rebel group has denied that.  Once in China, do they get any care, aid? Not clear.  The last convoy was headed south, not into China.    It's said that the US is concerned about Thailand: no elections set; and Thai-US mil exercises under way but were going to be cancelled. Yingluck Shinowat (former PM) will be indicted momentarily on criminal charges involving rice.  Yingluck and her brother were probably going to sell out Thailand to China.  No political violence in Thailand right now but there are scattered protests by students opposing the coup. 
A Red Cross convoy came under fire   ; https://ca.news.yahoo.com/two-shot-first-ever-attack-red-cross-myanmar-122810437.html
Unrest flared in Kokang on February 9, shattering nearly six years of relative calm, in a blow to Myanmar's quasi-civilian government as it tries to end the country's myriad ethnic minority conflicts. Details of the fighting in the remote mountainous region remain difficult to confirm. In 2009 more than 30,000 people flooded over the border into China as Myanmar's army launched an offensive against Kokang rebels. The fighting earned Myanmar's then-junta a rare rebuke from China, the country's powerful northern neighbour which at the time was almost its sole ally on the international stage. The Global New Light of Myanmar on Monday reported that eight captured Kokang rebels had "died of their wounds" in custody, while a further 18 others had been killed in recent fighting.
Hour Three
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Scott Walker leads big in Iowa   Scott Walker Hires N.H. Advisers for Likely 2016 Bid.  Also, Rand Paul: clumsy or cunning? / Rand Paul Is Looking to April to Announce Plan to Run for President ...  WASHINGTON — Senator Rand Paul is eyeing April 7 as the day he will announce his plans to run for president, people close to him said, ...  The Risk of Rand Paul's Trolling Strategy.  Scott Walker is still seen as a leading challenger to Jeb Bush, so the non-GOP media are throwing everything possible at him, including the notion that he was rowdy in French class in sixth grade, and that he had to withdraw from college in order to support his parents and himself.
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Rand Paul Eyes April 7 Presidential Campaign Launch. Kurds Become a 2016 Campaign Issue for Rand Paul .    Rand Paul on a Homeland Security shutdown, racial politics, and . . .    ;  Rand Paul finds potential 2016 run challenging, uncomfortable
Where is Mrs. Clinton?  First Draft | Hillary Clinton, Privately, Seeks the Favor of Elizabeth ...  Hillary Rodham Clinton held a private, one-on-one meeting with Senator Elizabeth Warren in December at Mrs. Clinton's Washington home, . . .
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 3, Block C:   James Taranto, Wall Street Journal, in re:  The ObamaCare Burden Some Americans are in for an especially bad tax season.
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 3, Block D: Ralph Atkins, Financial Times, in re: Eurozone to weigh Greek bailout request  Officials indicate they are cool to Athens’ eleventh-hour proposals
Hour Four
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 4, Block A: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution Defining Ideas, & Chicago Law, in re: America’s Foreign Policy Amateur President Obama refuses to take strong and decisive action against the Islamic State.  (1 of 2)
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 4, Block B:  Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution Defining Ideas, & Chicago Law, in re: America’s Foreign Policy Amateur President Obama refuses to take strong and decisive action against the Islamic State.  (2 of 2)
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 4, Block C: Paul Gregory, Hoover, in re: http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-troops-begin-pullback-from-debaltseve-lawmaker-says-1424250264?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
Wednesday  18 February 2015  / Hour 4, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Origin of Chelyabinsk meteorite remains unknown  The uncertainty of science: The origin of the Chelyabinsk meteorite that crashed over that Russian city two years ago remains murky to scientists.
Originally, astronomers thought that the Chelyabinsk meteor came from a 1.24-mile-wide (2 kilometers) near-Earth asteroid called 1999 NC43. But a closer look at the asteroid’s orbit and likely mineral composition, gained from spectroscopy, suggests few similarities between it and the Russian meteor.  The scientists noted in their paper that you really can’t use the similarity of orbits to link different asteroids, as their orbits are chaotic and change too much.
Images from Rosetta’s weekend fly-by of Comet 67P/C-G The images are only from the spacecraft’s navigational camera, and while cool, are thus to me not that interesting. What the high resolution camera saw they are once again keeping under wraps, for release later as part of a paper by the scientists involved.